A note on the neutrality of temporary monetary disturbances

In the rational expectations analysis of Lucas and Barro, the quantity of money is subject to random shocks that are specified to be unanticipated and permanent in character. The present note provides some simple examples of alternative money supply specifications that lead to non-neutrality of perceived temporary monetary growth through the channel of expected inflation. Subsequently, the discussion demonstrates that this non-neutrality is not robust to an alternative specification of private monetary behavior, the permanent balance model. The key difference is that the initial model involves commodity supply and demand which depend on current real balances while in the subsequent model these depend on permanent balances. Some final remarks are directed to the idea that the distinction between current and permanent balances in this simple model could be linked to alternative roles of money in more detailed, optimizing analyses.     

Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data

This paper uses contemporaneous monetary data to carry out econometric tests of the ‘equilibrium’ approach to modelling the relation between monetary disturbances and macroeconomic fluctuations. The theoretical analysis introduces into an equilibrium macroeconomic model the availability of preliminary data on current monetary aggregates and the process of accumulation of revised monetary data. The econometric analysis tests two hypothesis derived from this extended model. One hypothesis concerns the neutrality of perceived monetary policy. The econometric results imply rejection of this hypothesis. The other hypothesis concerns the non-neutrality of errors in preliminary monetary data. The econometric results fail to reject the contrary of this hypothesis. These tests provide strong evidence against the reality of the equilibrium approach.     

The dynamic effects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach

A structural factor model for 112 US monthly macroeconomic series is used to study the effects of monetary policy. Monetary policy shocks are identified using a standard recursive scheme, in which the impact effects on both industrial production and prices are zero. The main findings are the following. First, the maximal effect on bilateral real exchange rates is observed on impact, so that the “delayed overshooting” puzzle disappears. Second, after a contractionary shock prices fall at all horizons, so that the price puzzle is not there. Finally, monetary policy has a sizable effect on both real and nominal variables.     

The fiscal dimension of a common monetary policy: results with a non-Ricardian global model

The paper studies the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy within an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Results suggest that, in a model in which bonds and money are counted as net wealth, an important source of cross-country heterogeneity in response to a common monetary shock is the differences in national economies' budgetary positions. In particular, we note that centralising seigniorage revenues may lead, in the long term, to wealth redistribution across countries. Although institutional arrangements such as the Stability Pact might not be necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, its strict enforcement is shown to be associated with overall ever-lasting benefits. Transition to the new steady state is, however, likely to be remarkably costly for high-debt EMU countries. Finally, different degrees of efficiency characterising European credit markets do not seem to play a major role in explaining asymmetric responses.     

A model of unconventional monetary policy

We develop a quantitative monetary DSGE model with financial intermediaries that face endogenously determined balance sheet constraints. We then use the model to evaluate the effects of the central bank using unconventional monetary policy to combat a simulated financial crisis. We interpret unconventional monetary policy as expanding central bank credit intermediation to offset a disruption of private financial intermediation. Within our framework the central bank is less efficient than private intermediaries at making loans but it has the advantage of being able to elastically obtain funds by issuing riskless government debt. Unlike private intermediaries, it is not balance sheet constrained. During a crisis, the balance sheet constraints on private intermediaries tighten, raising the net benefits from central bank intermediation. These benefits may be substantial even if the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate is not binding. In the event this constraint is binding, though, these net benefits may be significantly enhanced.     

Macroeconometric testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses for the United States

Empirical tests of the neutrality of money growth found in recent literature are tests of the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and structural neutrality. Although tests of this joint hypothesis are informative, it is also important to gain information on the accuracy of its constituents. This paper presents the application of a methodology capable of providing information on the empirical validity of the rational expectations, structural neutrality, and joint hypotheses. Tests of these hypotheses are performed on the basis of FIML estimation of an extended version of a model recently presented by Robert Barro, using U.S. data for 1946–1973.     

International welfare effects of monetary policy

In this paper, I examine the international welfare effects of monetary policy. I develop a New Keynesian two-country model, where central banks in both countries follow the Taylor rule. I show that a decrease in the domestic interest rate, under producer currency pricing, is a beggar-thyself policy that reduces domestic welfare and increases foreign welfare in the short term, regardless of whether the cross-country substitutability is high or low. In the medium term, it is a beggar-thy-neighbour (beggar-thyself) policy, if the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied (violated). Under local currency pricing, a decrease in the domestic interest rate is a beggar-thy-neighbour policy in the short term, but a beggar-thyself policy in the medium term. Both under producer and local currency pricing, a monetary expansion increases world welfare in the short term, but reduces it in the medium term.     

Determinacy and expectational stability of equilibrium in a monetary sticky-price model with Taylor rule

Recent studies show that the Taylor rule possesses desirable properties in terms of generating determinacy and E-stability of rational expectations equilibria under sticky prices. This paper examines whether this policy rule retains these properties within a discrete-time money-in-utility-function model, employing three timings of money balances of the utility function that the existing literature contains: end-of-period timing and two types of cash-in-advance timing. This paper shows: (i) even a small degree of non-separability of the utility function between consumption and real balances causes the Taylor rule to be much more likely to induce indeterminacy or E-instability if this rule responds not only to inflation but also to output or the output gap; (ii) differences among the three timings strongly alter conditions for the Taylor rule to ensure both determinacy and E-stability.     

An integrated view of tests of rationality,market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy

This paper analyzes an important class of models in which expectations play an important role. Topics included in the analysis are tests of: (1) rationality of forecasts in either market or survey data, (2) capital market efficiency, (3) the short-run neutrality of monetary policy and, (4) Granger causality in macroeconometric models. The common elements of these tests are highlighted. In particular, cross-equation tests for rationality or the short-run neutrality of money are shown to be equivalent to more common regression tests in the literature. These results demonstrate that the exact specification of the relevant information set used in rational forecasts is not necessary for the cross-equation tests to have desirable asymptotic properties. Also discussed are the conditions for identification of coefficients and testability of hypotheses.     

Exchange-rate indexation in a monetary model: Theory and evidence

Using a familiar monetary model with nontraded goods, we derive the stability properties of the price level and reserve stock when the exchange rate is partially or completely indexed to the home price level divided by foreign prices. In the stable case, it is shown that indexing results in a system with properties of both fixed and flexible regimes. Our method is to impose conditions of short-run (but not long-run) equilibrium in a discrete period model. The model is tested with monthly data from Brazil.     

Rules,discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy

In a discretionary regime the monetary authority can print more money and create more inflation than people expect. But, although these inflation surprises can have some benefits, they cannot arise systematically in equilibrium when people understand the policymaker's incentives and form their expectations accordingly. Because the policymaker has the power to create inflation shocks ex post, the equilibrium growth rates of money and prices turn out to be higher than otherwise. Therefore, enforced commitments (rules) for monetary behavior can improve matters. Given the repeated interaction between the policymaker and the private agents, it is possible that reputational forces can substitute for formal rules. Here, we develop an example of a reputational equilibrium where the outcomes turn out to be weighted averages of those from discretion and those from the ideal rule. In particular, the rates of inflation and monetary growth look more like those under discretion when the discount rate is high.     

The persistent effects of a false news shock

In September 2008, a six-year-old article about the 2002 bankruptcy of United Airlines' parent company resurfaced on the Internet and was mistakenly believed to be reporting a new bankruptcy filing by the company. This episode caused the company's stock price to drop by as much as 76% in just a few minutes, before NASDAQ halted trading. After the “news” had been identified as false, the stock price rebounded, but still ended the day 11.2% below the previous close. We explore this natural experiment by using a simple asset-pricing model to study the aftermath of this false news shock. We find that, after three trading sessions, the company's stock was still trading below the two-standard-deviation band implied by the model and that it returned to within one standard deviation only during the sixth trading session. On the seventh day after the episode, the stock was trading at the level predicted by the asset-pricing model. We investigate several potential explanations for this finding, but fail to find empirical evidence supporting any of them. We also document that the false news shock had a persistent negative effect on the stock prices of other major airline companies. This is consistent with the view that contagion effects would have dominated competitive effects had the bankruptcy actually taken place.     

In search of the liquidity effect in a modern monetary model

This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and financial market frictions. First, we examine the shortcomings of monetary models emphasizing these frictions individually. The model then is specified to limit the response of prices and savings to a current period monetary disturbance. Our results show that this model can account for the following key responses to an expansionary monetary policy shock: a fall in the nominal interest rate; a rise in output, consumption, and investment; and a gradual increase in the price level. Finally, a detailed sensitivity analysis shows the model's results depend on the parameters assigned to critical structural features.     

Tests of rationality,neutrality and market efficiency: A Monte Carlo analysis of alternative test statistics

This paper examines the small sample properties of three testing strategies used to analyze the rationality, monetary neutrality and market efficiency hypotheses. We focus on the original ‘two-step’ Barro test of the MRE hypothesis formed entirely from OLS results, a test that employs the correct variance-covariance formulae for these ‘two-step’ estimates, and Mishkin's FIMLE testing framework. Each test is examined under likely model respecifications. The findings highlight the extensive bias incurred by drawing inferences from simple unadjusted ‘two-step’ estimates and reveal the relative power of all tests in identifying alternatives to the null hypotheses.     

The standard of living debate,rational expectations,and neutrality: Some evidence from the industrial revolution

There exists a debate among economic historians concerning the ‘standard of living’ of the British working class during the industrial revolution. In this debate, trends in real wages figure prominently and virtually all long- and short-term real wage movements are attributed to price level variation. This attribution conflicts with recent ‘neutrality’ propositions associated with rational expectations. We test a version of the rational expectations-neutrality hypothesis by examining whether prices caused real wages in the period 1790–1850. This period is of particular interest due to the competitive nature of the British economy at that time. We find the hypothesis is consistent with the data. This is in contrast to all existing interpretations of the period.     

Customer markets and the welfare effects of monetary policy

A customer market model in which firms and customers form long-term relations is developed and integrated into the canonical New Keynesian framework. This leads to two important differences compared to the standard model. First, the purely forward-looking Phillips curve is replaced by a hybrid variant where current inflation also depends on past inflation. Second, the welfare cost of inflation is much lower, which leads to an optimal monetary policy where relatively more weight is put on output gap stabilization than previously found in the literature.     

Using private forecasts to estimate the effects of monetary policy

I develop a methodology that uses the forecasts of market participants and of policy makers to estimate the effects of monetary policy on output and inflation. My approach has advantages over the standard practice of fitting a vector autoregression to the data. I apply my methodology to data on output, interest rates and prices. I find that, even using the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook forecasts to control for the policy maker's information set, prices rise initially in response to a monetary contraction. This finding undermines the standard justification for including an index of commodity prices in VARs.     

Rational expectations and the effectiveness of monetary policy with special reference to the Barro-Fischer model

Monetary policy is sometimes alleged to be ineffective when the rational-expectations hypothesis is imposed on macroeconomic models. Barro and Fischer (1976) once presented in this journal a simple macroeconomic model in order to explain such a claim. However, their conclusion depends on a specific rule employed for the future course of money supply. It is shown that their model embodies an important factor which generally renders monetary policies effective, rational expectations notwithstanding. It is suggested that this property also holds in more general macroeconomic frameworks.     

Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data

In this paper, we consider estimation of a time-varying parameter model for a forward-looking monetary policy rule, by employing ex post data. A Heckman-type (1976. The common structure of statistical models of truncation, sample selection, and limited dependent variables and a simple estimator for such models. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5, 475-492) two-step procedure is employed in order to deal with endogeneity in the regressors. This allows us to econometrically take into account changing degrees of uncertainty associated with the Fed's forecasts of future inflation and GDP gap when estimating the model. Even though such uncertainty does not enter the model directly, we achieve efficiency in estimation by employing the standardized prediction errors for inflation and GDP gap as bias correction terms in the second-step regression. We note that no other empirical literature on monetary policy deals with this important issue. Our empirical results also reveal new aspects not found in the literature previously. That is, the history of the Fed's conduct of monetary policy since the early 1970s can in general be divided into three subperiods: the 1970s, the 1980s, and the 1990s. The conventional division of the sample into pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods could mislead the empirical assessment of monetary policy.