Fast Development With a Stable Income Distribution: Taiwan, 1979–94

This paper studies the mechanisms underlying the apparent stability of the income distribution in Taiwan. An original decomposition method based on micro-simulation techniques is proposed. Applied to the distribution of income in Taiwan since 1979, it permits isolating the respective impact of changes in: (a) the earning structure; (b) labor-force participation behavior; and (c) the socio-demographic structure of the population. The stability of the distribution in Taiwan appears as the result of various structural forces which happened to offset each other. The small drop observed in the inequality of individual earnings resulted from the combination of unequalizing changes in the wage structure and the effects of changes in female labor-force participation as well as in the educational structure of the population. However, the same offsetting forces, together with changes in the composition of households, resulted in a small increase in the inequality of the distribution of equivalized household income.     

On the impact of financial development on income distribution: time-series evidence

Financial market development is said to have equalizing or unequalizing effects on income distribution. Previous research used cross-sectional and panel data and provided mixed results. Suspecting that they suffer from aggregation bias, we adhere to time-series data and error-correction modeling technique and address the issue one more time in each of the 17 countries for which we have time-series data. In 10 counties, short-run effects of financial market development on income distribution were found to be equalizing. In five countries, the effects were unequalizing. However, the equalizing effects lasted into the long run only in three countries of Denmark, Kenya and Turkey.     

RESOURCE BOOMS, INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: THE CASE OF GAS IN BOLIVIA

This paper addresses the question of whether the Bolivian gas boom of the 1990s has bypassed large parts of the poor population, thereby leading to increasing inequalities in an already unequal society. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model that is sequentially linked to a microsimulation model, we examine the transmission channels through which the large resource inflows related to the gas boom, both initial foreign investment in the sector and the subsequent export earnings, as well as large public transfer programs affect the distribution of income. Our focus is on labor market impacts, in particular on shifts between formal and informal employment and changes in relative factor prices. Our simulation results suggest that the gas boom induces a combination of unequalizing and equalizing forces, which tend to offset each other. As net distributional change is limited, growth generated by the boom reduces poverty despite increasing informality.     

Capital accumulation,income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model

A study is conducted in attempts to increase the understanding of the links between macroeconomic effects and causes of population growth in formulating policy. An overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed aggregating household decisions about fertility, savings, and investment in the human capital of children with the objective of studying intertemporal relationships among population growth, income distribution, inter-generation social mobility, skill composition of the labor force, and household income. As a result of endogenous fertility, the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation. Income tax transfer, child taxation, and social security taxation policies are also examined in the paper. A structural explanation is given for the inverse household income-child quantity and negative child quality-quantity relationships seen in developing countries. In a Cobb-Douglas economy, these relationships hold in the short-run, potentially working over the long-run in other economies. Overall, the model shows that group interests may hinder emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives. Where developing countries are concerned, these results have strong implications for population policy. A policy mix of building good quality schools, or subsidizing rural education, introducing a formal social security program, and providing high-yield, risk-free investments, banking, and insurance services to the poor is recommended.     

Finance and income inequality in Kazakhstan: evidence since transition with policy suggestions

Kazakhstan gained independence in 1990 and has undergone significant changes in economic, social and trade conditions since then. We analyse the effects of financial development on income inequality in Kazakhstan, incorporating economic growth, foreign investment, education and the role of democracy as the drivers. We establish that income inequality in Kazakhstan is impaired by financial development. In summary, we send three messages for policy purposes. First, strengthening financial sector is necessary to close the gap between ‘haves and have-nots’. Second, attracting FDI beyond the hydrocarbon sector is necessary to alleviate inequality. Finally, adaptation of education system to the new social and economic environment would help in improving income distribution.     

SOCIAL INVESTMENT AND YOUTH LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION

In this paper, we first rely on small area techniques to derive from EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU‐SILC) survey new indicators of compensatory and social‐investment policies at regional level. While compensatory policies have mainly the goal of protecting individuals from “old” risks (e.g., old‐age), investment‐related social policies tend to focus more on “new social risks” (e.g., skill deficits). We rely on these new indicators to perform a data‐driven structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis to investigate the causal relationships between youth labor market outcomes and these two types of spending. Our results support the view that social‐investment policies are effective for tackling new social challenges. (JEL C18, C54, E02)     

Investment subsidies and redistributive capital income taxation in a neoclassical growth model

How do investment subsidies bear on pure redistribution when coupled with capital income taxes? In a heterogeneous agent, neoclassical growth framework it is found that on impact, with no optimizing behavior, investment subsidies are good for growth but bad for redistribution. The opposite holds for capital income taxes. But when the government acts as a Stackelberg leader vis-à-vis the private sector (the follower), the optimal feedback policy is by construction time-consistent and implies that in a long-run optimum the tax scheme does not distort accumulation. This holds regardless of social preferences. For the feedback Stackelberg equilibrium I find that (pure) redistribution can go either way and capital income taxes are nonzero in the long-run, time-consistent optimum, depending on the social weight of those who receive redistributive transfers, the distribution of pretax factor incomes, and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. It is argued that investment subsidies may be an important indirect tool for redistribution, and may allow for the separation of “efficiency” and “equity” concerns.     

On the effects of income volatility on income distribution: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S.

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of income volatility on income inequality in the U.S. used state level data and a balanced panel model to conclude that increased volatility worsens income distribution in the U.S., which implies that decreased volatility should reduce inequality. We use the same data set that is extended by nine years and revisit the issue using linear and nonlinear ARDL time-series models to show that the above conclusion does not hold in every state. While we discover short-run asymmetric effects of income volatility on a measure of inequality in most states, they translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in 16 states. Both increased volatility and decreased volatility are found to have unequalizing effects on income distribution in these states.     

Interdependent welfare functions and optimal income distribution

The relationship between income distribution and social welfare is empirically analyzed, while explicitly allowing for the interdependence of individual welfare functions. The social welfare function is taken to be an additive function of individual welfare functions of income (WFIs). On the basis of Dutch data it is found that under certain conditions (such as absence of effects of income redistribution on productivity) an equal distribution of incomes is suboptimal. The interdependence of WFIs appears to have a pronounced effect on policy conclusions concerning the desirability of income redistribution vis-à-vis economic growth.     

China??s growth model and structural unbalance in the open economy

The Chinese economy has been significantly affected by the global financial crisis. Moreover, a rapid decline in growth rate can be mainly attributed to the expenditure structural unbalance, which takes root in its uneven national income distribution. Furthermore, the uneven national income distribution is the result of the extensive pattern of China’s economic growth in the open economy. The extensive pattern is characterized by labor-intensive export-led growth model. The need for high growth rate and fiscal revenue maximization forces local governments to compete against each other to get FDI by undervaluing production factors, resulting in the extensive pattern of growth. From an institutional point of view, uneven social power between government and public, central government and local governments, capital owners and labor force, and so on, can be viewed as the main reason for the extensive pattern of growth and uneven national income distribution. Low wage, which has been the main factor for the comparative advantage, now turns out to be barriers to boosting domestic demand. The technology lag in the manufacturing industry also has a significant negative impact on improving labor productivity and increasing per capita income. Hence, to deal with the recession, not only quantitative easing, but also structural adjustments are needed.     

必要增长率与财政政策的理论与实证研究

本文利用我国1992～2003年的年度统计数据,检验了开放经济条件下必要增长率与财政政策关系模型,验证了财政支出水平变化、财政支出结构变化、财政投资结构变化、所得税税率变化及销售税税率的变化对我国国民经济必要增长率的影响,提出了尽量减少必要增长率与民间投资增长率缺口、提高财政支出水平、改善财政支出与投资结构、提高所得税税率与销售税税率、改善所得税结构的政策建议.     

Structural transformation in China and India: A note on macroeconomic policies

This paper explores macroeconomic policies that can sustain structural change in China and India. A two-sector open-economy model with endogenous productivity growth, demand driven output and income distribution as an important determinant of economic activity is calibrated to a 2000 SAM for China and a 1999/2000 SAM for India. Short-run analysis concerns temporary equilibria for output, productivity and employment growth rates in the formal sector. In the long-run, the model allows for multiple equilibria which can describe cases of (a) underdevelopment and structural heterogeneity or (b) sustained growth and development. Several simulation exercises are conducted. Specifically, we consider how changes in investment, wages, labor productivity trend and a depreciation of currency affect the macroeconomy and job creation in the formal sector.     

影响收入分配关系的五个问题与八点建议

基于与收入分配密切相关的五个重要问题的分析,文章认为,我国现阶段收入分配的症结不在于雇员薪酬比重、政府收入规模(宏观税负)、国有经济比重等带有总量特征的指标出现了什么严重问题,而在于收入分配的结构存在较为显著的不合理,差距扩大,公正性不足,转移支付和直接税的再分配优化机制构建不到位、作用发挥不够,以及对财产性收入的影响缺乏有效的引导与约束,国有企业的资产收益对公共福利贡献较弱,等等。文章从政府与财政的职能定位出发,考虑全局的可持续发展和社会和谐,提出了八点完善收入分配关系的建议。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 1957–76*

This article describes what happens to income distribution during intensive changes in gross domestic product due to external market conditions. It deals specifically with an open market petroleum-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago, and reviews changes in national product and income levels and the income distribution pattern over the twenty year period 1957–76. The paper argues that during the period characterized by subperiods of steady growth and rapid growth in GDP (the latter associated with the petroleum price rise), income inequality increased between 1957 and 1972 and then decreased in the post petroleum-price-rise period of rapid growth 1973–76. While the effect of intensive changes in national product did trickle down to the lower income groups, income inequality in 1975–76 was greater than that existing in 1957–58. An examination of the spatial, occupational and temporal aspect of the distribution pattern points towards the elimination of structural dualism in the economy as the surest path towards greater income equality in Trinidad and Tobago.     

农业投资与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析

在建立向量自回归模型的基础上,运用广义脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解考察农业投资与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结论表明,在1981~2006年的样本区间内,农业投资的各个组成部分在促进农民收入增长中的贡献度和影响力有着显著差异,并且存在着一定的作用时滞。但从长期来看,我国农业投资与农民收入增长之间存在着紧密的联系,随着时间的推移,其作用程度渐趋稳定和显著。因此,在运用农业投资促进农民收入增长的政策选择上,应采取长期政策而非短期政策,并通过建立持续稳定的投资增长机制来保证其促进农民增收的拉动作用。     

公共教育、社会保障与收入分布

本文使用一个世代交叠模型揭示了公共教育与社会保障调节收入分布的作用机制。研究发现,公共教育能够有效地缩小家庭教育投资差距,从而降低收入差异;社会保障则通过减少低收入家庭的劳动供给、增加其有效家庭教育时间来降低收入差异。本文的数值模拟结果显示,在同样的支出水平下公共教育调节收入差异的能力比社会保障更强。并且当存在财政预算约束时,从降低收入差异的角度来看,若财政预算规模较低则应当将资金优先用于公共教育;若财政预算规模较高则应当在公共教育与社会保障之间保持平衡。     

Growth, income distribution, and democracy: What the data say

This paper investigates the relationship between income distribution, democratic institutions, and growth. It does so by addressing three main issues: the properties and reliability of the income distribution data, the robustness of the reduced form relationships between income distribution and growth estimated so far, and the specific channels through which income distribution affects growth. The main conclusion in this regard is that there is strong empirical support for two types of explanations, linking income distribution to sociopolitical instability and to the education/fertility decision. A third channel, based on the interplay of borrowing constraints and investment in human capital, also seems to receive some support by the data, although it is probably the hardest to test with the existing data. By contrast, there appears to be less empirical support for explanations based on the effects of income distribution on fiscal policy.     

Efficiency of Screening and Labor Income Inequality

We analyze the importance of information about individual skills for understanding human capital accumulation and income inequality. The paper uses the framework of an overlapping generations economy with endogenous investment in human capital. Agents in each generation differ by random individual ability, or talent, which affects the screening process. The human capital of an agent depends on both his talent and his investment in education. The investment decision is based on a public signal (test outcome), which screens all agents for their talents. We analyze how a better information system, which allows more efficient screening, affects investment in education and, hence, income inequality in equilibrium. As a main result, we find that, typically, less inequality in the distribution of actual incomes can only be achieved at the expense of more inequality in the distribution of income opportunities.     

Foreign direct investment,growth and income inequality in less developed countries

How does foreign direct investment (FDI) affect economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs)? What is its association with changes in the income distribution? This paper empirically examines these issues within a cross section of less developed countries between 1970 and 1989. FDI is positively associated with economic growth within this sample of countries. However, there is no strong association between FDI and changes in income inequality within these same countries and over this same time period. Hence, there is no evidence that FDI is increasing income inequality within this group of LDCs.     

Foreign direct investment, regional market conditions and regional development

This paper uses regional panel data to investigate the mechanism whereby foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to China's regional development through quantifying regional marketization levels. It is found that FDI inflow generates a demonstration effect in identifying regional market conditions for investment in fixed assets and hence affects industrial location. In addition, its effects on regional export and regional income growth have varied across east, central and west China since the second half of the 1990s, depending on differences in FDI orientation between different regions. In east China, geographical advantage in exports attracts FDI inflow and FDI promotes exports. In addition, the rise of the FDI–GDP ratio increases east China's share in national industrial value added. These effects contribute positively to regional income growth in east China although there is a direct crowding‐out effect between FDI and domestic investment (as input) in growth. In contrast, the negative impact of FDI inflow on regional export orientation in central China weakens its contribution to regional income growth. Furthermore, the contribution of the improvement in the market mechanism to regional development is evidenced in attracting FDI, in promoting export and directly contributing to regional income growth.