Anticipated and unanticipated disturbances: The dynamics of the exchange rate and the current account

The pattern of correlation between the exchange rate and the current account is investigated in the context of an econometric portfolio-balance model with rational expectations. While exchange-rate appreciation (depreciation) is positively correlated with current account surpluses (deficits) in response to unanticipated disturbances, there can be either positive or negative correlation in response to anticipated disturbances. Using maximum likelihood methods, the model is estimated and the response to anticipated disturbances is simulated using data from the current flexible exchange-rate period. The exchange rate and the current account are found to be positively correlated in response to anticipated disturbances for Japan and the United States, and negatively correlated for Germany and the United Kingdom.     

Stocks,flows, and some exchange rate dynamics for the currency substitution model

The paper argues that the treatment of stocks and flows in portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination is inadequate, and that this hampers the analysis of exchange rate dynamics. A proposed resolution is reworked into the currency substitution model. In addition to providing explicit solutions for the spot rate of exchange depreciation under different expectational hypotheses, an attempt is made to clarify the dynamic properties of the model. Inter alia, it is shown how exchange rate overshooting is possible without having to assume market frictions; how a deteriorating current account deficit can coexist with an appreciating exchange rate; and, more generally, how portfolio induced jumps in the exchange rate are linked to balance of payments flow influences on the evolution of the exchange rate.     

Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon

This paper examines empirically using time series econometric models the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies, as well as, the relationship between current account and budget deficits in the emerging small open economy of Lebanon. The empirical results point to unsustainable debt and exchange rate policies. Other empirical results support the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship, in the short run, between the budget and current account deficits, indicating that rising fiscal deficits have started to put even more strain on the current account deficits and on the national public debt. To avoid a future depreciation of the exchange rate and perhaps a fiscal and currency crises, the government will have to timely introduce austerity measures to curb the negative implications of its rising budget and current account deficits and debt on Lebanon's economy.     

汇率调整是否能有效的改变贸易逆差呢?——从金融市场完善程度差异性的角度分析

随着全球失衡的加剧,作为世界主要贸易逆差国的美国希望通过敦促其逆差来源国货币升值的途径,来改善自己的贸易逆差。但是这一调整策略是否能够达到预期的结果呢?本文通过对美国的逆差来源国货币升值的绩效分析发现,货币升值能否改变失衡的局面取决于一国的金融完善程度。金融市场较为完善的国家对于汇率调整的敏感度更高,而金融市场较为不发达的国家则对于这种调整不甚敏感。中国受限于金融市场完善程度,导致人民币升值不能改善其国际收支失衡的现状,而美国也不会获得预期的收益。     

人民币汇率预期对经常项下跨境资金流动的影响

本文利用2006-2012年月度时间序列数据．对人民币汇率预期与经常项下跨境资金流动的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,山东省经常项下跨境资金流动与人民币汇率预期之间存在着协整关系,人民币升值（贬值）预期能够导致跨境资金的大幅流人（流出）。通过对样本企业调查发现．汇率预期在微观角度上影响着跨境资金流动机制的形成。最后,本文对完善人民币汇率预期管理提出了政策建议。     

House Price Booms,Current Account Deficits,and Low Interest Rates

Domestic factors, such as credit and preference shocks, can explain the negative correlation between house prices and the current account in the U.S. and several other countries before the recent crisis. These shocks, however, cannot account for the fall of world real interest rates observed in the data. Expansionary monetary policy shocks in the U.S., coupled with exchange rate pegs to the dollar in emerging economies, are crucial to understanding the evolution of the real interest rate. Yet, monetary policy factors play virtually no role for house prices and the current account.     

How does a devaluation affect the current account?

This paper explores how an exchange rate devaluation affects the current account in a sticky-price inter-temporal optimizing model. The main issue addressed is how the features of international pricing affect the response of the current account. When prices are all set in the producer's currencies, the effect of a devaluation on the current account depends on the conventional Marshall–Lerner conditions. This is fundamentally an a-temporal condition (depending on the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods). However, when prices are all set in consumer's currencies, the response of the current account depends upon the size of the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution of consumption across time periods. This represents an inter-temporal condition. When pricing-to-market is partial, the effect of devaluation on the current account depends on the strength of the a-temporal elasticity relative to the inter-temporal elasticity.     

以新思维审视中国外汇储备风险

外汇储备是一国国际经济活动往来形成的特殊的外币债权,中国经常项目、资本和金融项目的特点以及热钱的大规模流入决定了中国当前的外汇储备存在一定的不稳定因素。过多的外汇储备必将产生较大的机会成本风险,并且面临着较大且频繁的汇率风险以及境外金融机构倒闭和资产价格波动的风险,给国内的流动性控制和金融调控带来诸多的困难,增加了贸易摩擦的频率。要审时度势,通过加快国内经济结构调整、鼓励走出去、多元化运作储备资产等形式规避中国外汇储备所面临的风险。     

An examination of the effects of government purchases in an open economy

This paper examines the effects of permanent and transitory changes in government purchases in the context of a model of a small open economy that produces and consumes both traded and nontraded goods. The model incorporates an equilibrium interpretation of the business cycle that emphasizes the responsiveness of agents to intertemporal relative price changes. It is demonstrated that transitory increases in government purchases lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and an ambiguous change (although a likely worsening) in the current account, while permanent increases have an ambiguous impact on the real exchange rate and no effect on the current account. When agents do not know whether a given increase in government purchases is permanent or transitory the effect is a weighted average of these separate effects. The weights depend on the relative variances of the transitory and permanent components of government purchases.     

Explaining exchange rate volatility: an empirical analysis of ‘the holy trinity’ of monetary independence, fixed exchange rates, and capital mobility

This paper uses a panel of data from twenty-two countries between 1967 and 1992 to explain exchange rate volatility, focusing on potential tradeoffs between fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility. I use monetary models to parameterize monetary divergence and factor analysis to measure capital mobility. Exchange rate volatility is loosely linked to both monetary divergence and the degree of capital mobility. Interestingly, exchange rate volatility is significantly correlated with the width of the explicitly declared exchange rate band, even after taking monetary divergence and capital mobility into account.     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

Global Liquidity,Current Account Deficit,and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effects in Turkey

This study investigates the current account deficit (CAD) of Turkey from the perspective of its capital account. We discuss how global liquidity conditions and monetary policies in Turkey have contributed to higher deficits through real exchange rate appreciations. We analyze the impact and consequences of exchange rate (ER) changes on the investments of non-financial firms. In the case of real ER depreciations, we find that the magnitude of the contractionary effect through balance sheets of firms with dollarized liabilities is significantly higher than the expansionary effect through trade competitiveness. We also analyze the “soft-landing” policies aimed at reducing the CAD in Turkey and estimate the rate of economic growth that must be foregone for a percentage reduction in CAD.     

资本账户开放进程中的汇率风险研究

本文以资本账户开放为背景,按照全面风险管理体系对我国资本账户开放进程中的汇率风险进行测度和管理。测度1997-2018年间我国资本账户的开放程度,并运用GARCH-VaR模型度量我国现阶段的外汇市场风险。研究表明:整体而言,资本市场的开放程度与汇率风险之间存在正相关关系,在资本管制程度较高时,汇率波动整体较小,汇率风险较低;在资本管制程度较低时,国际资本流动频繁,汇率整体波动较大,此时汇率风险较高。为降低资本账户开放进程中的汇率风险,现阶段我国要稳步推进资本账户开放,建立全面风险管理体系,完善汇率制度,加强对市场的监督管理。     

Domestic currency appreciation and foreign capital inflows: What comes first? (Chile, 1977–1982)

The purpose of this paper is to find (Granger) causality relations between the real exchange rate, the inflow of foreign capital, interest rate arbitrage, and the terms of trade, in a representative indebted, developing country Chilé. This is done for a time period in which Chile went from an unprecedented expansion (1977–1981) to a severe recession (1982). The paper confronts two competing hypotheses that purport to explain such behavior. Hypothesis one claims that causality went from the real exchange rate (affected by nominal exchange rate policy) to capital inflows, in what could be termed a current-account–deficit-induced demand for foreign funds. Hypothesis two posits a causality that ran the other way—from capital inflows to the real exchange rate—in which case the ‘exogenous’ inflows of foreign money implied a current account deficit. Special attention is paid to the role played by two other related factors, interest rate arbitrage and terms of trade variations. By applying innovation accounting techniques based on estimated vector autoregressions, support is found for the second of these hypotheses. Thus, the real issue—in Chile and in many other currently indebted Latin American countries—should be the timing and extent of the capital account liberalization process carried out during the period.     

Current account adjustment in industrial countries

This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10–20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit–GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.     

UK imports,third country effect and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the asymmetric ARDL method

This paper examines the role of exchange rate volatility in determining real imports. As a robustness check, it further explores the impact of the recent global financial crisis which is a period characterized by heightened exchange rate volatility. More specifically, we investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on UK real imports from Germany, Japan and the US during the period January 1991–March 2013. In contrast to most studies which focus on bilateral trade, we additionally explore the third country exchange rate volatility effect on UK imports. To capture the nonlinear features which often characterize macroeconomic data, we employ the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Our results suggest that exchange rate volatility plays an important role and reveal that there is a significant effect of the recent financial crisis on UK imports. This finding is consistent when we test for the third country volatility effect. Finally, we find that there is a significant causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports both in bilateral tests and in tests which account for the third country exchange rate volatility.     

试论我国经常项目均衡管理的基本思路及实现机制

经常项目外汇均衡管理机制的构建是我国实现外汇均衡管理的一个重要组成部分。由于经常项目均衡在国际收支均衡中的基础性作用,在现阶段人民币资本项目尚未完全可兑换情况下,这种机制构造既有迫切性更有挑战性。本文比较系统地探讨了我国经常项目外汇均衡管理思路及实现机制设想,旨在对现行经常项目外汇管理制度扬弃的基础上,以总量风险管理与均衡管理为视角,探索人民币可兑换进程中外汇监管有效性与经营便利性相统一的经常项目外汇均衡管理的机制,以期对我国经常项目外汇管理的体制转型实现我国经常项目乃至我国国际收支的可维持性起到积极促进作用。     

不同资本账户开放程度下汇率波动对经济增长的非线性效应--基于面板门限模型的分析

文章利用50个国家1997~2015年的年度数据,基于面板门限模型分析了不同资本账户开放度下汇率波动与经济增长之间的非线性效应。研究发现:第一,汇率波动与经济增长之间存在门限效应,具体表现为低汇率波动促进经济增长,高汇率波动抑制经济增长;第二,资本账户开放能够弱化汇率波动对经济增长的不利影响,且不同资本账户开放度存在异质性;第三,不同汇率波动幅度下,汇率波动与资本账户开放度的交互项对经济增长的影响存在门限效应。     

人民币国际化下的货币政策效应分析

货币政策是宏观经济政策中的重要组成部分。目前我国的货币政策虽然也受到国外因素的影响,但由于实行较为严格的资本管制,人民币只是在经常项目下可兑换,所以外部影响对货币政策的干扰不大。人民币国际化后,由于汇率浮动、资本可自由流动、人民币可自由兑换,国内货币政策会受到严重影响,其效力的发挥会产生很大的偏差。这些影响因素中最重要的是资本流动、货币替代和外汇储备。