美国次贷危机对我国住房贷款市场的启示

美国次贷危机给美国购房者及牵涉的金融机构带来了极大的损失。金融机构降低住房抵押贷款者的资信标准是造成这次次贷危机的根本原因,利率的过度调整是这次危机爆发的直接原因,而金融机构投资者对住房抵押贷款证券的狂热购买则对次贷危机的爆发起到了推波助澜的作用。美国次贷危机给我国红红火火的房贷市场带来了深刻的启示:放贷银行必须充分认识到住房抵押贷款的风险性并采取措施加以控制;放贷银行可以通过将抵押贷款证券的办法来分散部分风险。     

美国次贷危机对我国商业银行住房信贷的警示

当前美国次贷危机恶化,全球股市出现连续暴跌,我国房地产市场也步入低谷.在美国次贷危机中,五大投资银行几乎全军覆没,商业银行也因此受到严重打击.美国次贷危机表明,住房抵押贷款背后隐藏着巨大的风险,因此我国商业银行住房信贷要充分认识次货危机爆发的原因,并针对我国住房信贷存在的风险要采取相应的对策.     

美国次贷危机对我国商业银行住房信贷的警示

当前美国次贷危机恶化,全球股市出现连续暴跌,我国房地产市场也步入低谷。在美国次贷危机中,五大投资银行几乎全军覆没,商业银行也因此受到严重打击。美国次贷危机表明,住房抵押贷款背后隐藏着巨大的风险,因此我国商业银行住房信贷要充分认识次贷危机爆发的原因,并针对我国住房信贷存在的风险要采取相应的对策。     

美国次贷危机对我国房地产市场的启示

美国的次贷危机给美国乃至全球经济带来严重冲击。次贷危机起源于住房抵押贷款市场。通过分析次贷危机产生的主要原因,对于促进我国房地产业与社会经济协调发展可以提供一些启示:要重视住房抵押贷款背后隐藏的风险;控制房地产市场的投机行为,防止房地产价格过快上涨;充分认识住房抵押贷款证券化的风险;完善住房供应结构,加强保障性住房建设等。     

美国次贷危机对我国个人住房信货的警示

2007年7月,美国次级抵押贷款危机恶化,严重冲击美国、欧洲、日本乃至中国的资本市场,从而带动全球股市出现连续暴跌,亚洲地区尤以香港股市跌幅为甚.美国次贷风波中首当其冲遭遇打击的就是银行业.住房抵押贷款背后隐藏的风险是当前中国商业银行特别应该关注的问题,这场风波为我们敲响了居安思危的警钟.本文分析了中国银行住房信贷的现状及存在的风险.提出美国次贷危机给我国商业银行住房贷款的启示性建议.     

次贷危机及对商业银行信用风险管理的启示

美国货币政策由宽松到紧缩的变化,次贷消费者还款压力增大,造成了次贷违约率急剧上升,使得在宽松货币政策和市场流动性充足条件下形成的收益、风险转移和资金供给链条断开,维持高杠杆比率的机构出现流动性风险,从而引发了次贷危机。从危机的形成与扩散来看,根源在于一是贷款人放松了审慎经营原则,扩大了次级信贷市场的信用风险;二是投资者过度追求收益,背离了风险管理原则;三是监管者夸大了市场调节功能,放松和忽视了对次贷市场的有效监管。     

次贷危机及其对我国房贷证券化的启示

随着我国住房抵押贷款余额的进一步增加,商业银行面临流动性风险,所以急需推动住房抵押贷款证券化的实施。文章结合次贷危机分析了美国住房抵押贷款的证券化模式,指出我国可以借鉴美国模式。但是需要从次贷危机中吸取一定的教训,使得我国住房抵押贷款证券化更好地发展。     

次贷危机下房地产经济的可持续发展

美国次贷危机在2007年2月首次引起了世人的关注,2007年8月升级成全球金融风暴,住房抵押贷款公司申请破产,投资银行和商业银行普遍发出盈利预警,全球主要股市指数应声而跌,次贷危机使全球经济陷入衰退.探究本轮次贷危机的成因可以使我们从危机中吸取教训,在积极发展房地产和金融市场的同时,理性而审慎的对待发展过程中积累的风险,加强风险防范意识,提高风险管理能力,以保证我国房地产和金融市场的稳定健康发展.     

华尔街金融风暴的作用机理及其对中国的启示

美国房贷模式的改变是次贷危机的初始原因,次级抵押贷款证券化、信用衍生品的创新导致危机从信贷市场传导至资本市场,而融资杠杆使损失放大了N倍,进而辐射到了全球金融系统。在国际和国内经济的急剧变化下,中国经济潜在的风险不容忽视。中国应加强对金融衍生品的监管,加强对房地产市场的监管,严格控制信用评级部门的评级标准及信贷政策,提高政府监管水平加强应对危机的能力。     

商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险研究

随着我国商业银行住房抵押贷款余额的快速上升,个贷的违约风险也日益成为商业银行等金融机构关注的焦点。尤其是美国次贷危机爆发后,这一问题显得更为严峻,对个贷违约风险的研究也更为迫切。本文在国内外学者现有研究的基础上,利用某国有银行的信贷资料,通过因子分析和判别分析,对影响我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的因素进行了实证研究,并就如何控制和防范违约风险提出相关的政策建议。     

Heterogeneous Mortgage Markets: Implications for Business Cycles and Welfare in the EMU

This paper evaluates business cycle effects of asymmetric cross‐country mortgage market developments in a monetary union. By employing a two‐country New Keynesian DSGE model with collateral constraints tied to housing values, we show that a change in institutional characteristics of mortgage markets, such as the loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratio, is an important driver of asymmetric developments in housing markets and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that the home country where credit standards are lax booms, while the rest of European Monetary Union faces a negative output gap. Overall welfare is lower if LTV ratios are higher.     

The Positive Externalities of Chapter 13 “Cramdowns” Could Prevent the Next Foreclosure Crisis

Revision of Bankruptcy Code 11 U.S.C. § 1322(b)(2) would permit “cramdowns” wherein bankruptcy judges would administer the modification of residential mortgages only when mortgage-lending abuses were most rampant (a real estate bubble). Foreclosure spill-over effects systemically worsened the housing crisis and were not evenly diffused throughout the broader housing market. Throughout 2003–2006, an oversupply of underpriced mortgage finance emanating from lax underwriting standards bid up residential prices. Relaxation of underwriting protocols came about from the mortgage market’s institutional swing from regulated agency securitization (predominantly government-sponsored enterprises “GSEs”) to unregulated securitization (shadow banking). This resulted in an untenable residential-price bubble as synthetically inexpensive credit from investors’ mispricing amplified mortgage demand, while greater mortgage quantity nudged up housing prices. The result was a self-referential cycle of waning residential prices supporting and perpetuating nigh incessant foreclosures: the bubble had burst. Cramdowns would incentivize lenders to be less inclined to loosen underwriting standards, or when done, to include this factor in the risk premium of the cost of credit. Enhancing Chapter 13 with the muscle to alter residential mortgages would ameliorate an institutionally structural issue endemic to the past (and upcoming?) foreclosure crisis.     

Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.     

次贷危机下对我国商业银行房贷业务的思考

2007年美国次贷危机的爆发使美国金融界受到了一次极大的震荡,甚至可以说是行业“洗牌”,许多银行和投资银行都受到影响。我国商业银行在房贷业务上也有同美国住宅抵押贷款业务同样的风险,如信用风险突出、放贷机构低估住房抵押贷款风险等。因此,我们应吸取此次危机的教训,金融机构应增强审慎经营管理的意识,加强风险管理,加快住房抵押贷款证券化进程。     

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

A common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.     

中国个人住房按揭贷款的信用风险及成因剖析

随着中国房地产市场的不断扩张和个人住房按揭贷款业务的快速发展,其信用风险也越来越受到中国金融界的重视。要实施有效的防范措施和管理策略,就必须先认真剖析风险的形成原因。中国个人住房按揭贷款信用风险的成因主要在于：开发商信用缺失造成;借款人问题导致;商业银行自身原因引发。     

由美国次贷危机引发的中国商业银行住房信贷风险研究

美国次贷危机所引发的国际金融危机愈演愈烈,加大了中国经济运行的不确定性。这进一步加大了中国商业银行住房信贷业务的风险。对此,中国商业银行应充分借鉴美国次贷危机的启示,加强中国商业银行个人信贷风险管理。     

利润率下降、信贷扩张与房价波动——来自跨国面板数据的经验证据

非金融部门利润率的下降是导致信用扩张的内生性原因,信用游离于实体经济之外、单纯在金融系统内循环是房价上涨和波动的主要推动力。信贷扩张和房价波动相互影响,但信贷扩张对房价的影响远远大于房价上涨对信贷扩张的影响;信贷扩张对房价的放大机制即加速器效应在国际房地产市场普遍存在,加速器效应是房价顺周期性变化的潜在原因,但房价上涨引起信贷进一步扩张的加速器效应不存在。以美日为代表的发达国家的实体经济利润率下降、信用扩张、房价泡沫的累积、直至危机爆发的历史经验值得深思。     

美国次级抵押贷款危机的警示

近期美国次级抵押贷款危机成了影响美国及全球金融市场的导火索.本文全面介绍了次级抵押贷款和次级债的基本特征,从政府政策导向、税制安排、金融环境、市场竞争等多个方面分析了次级抵押贷款危机产生的原因.在此基础上,提出了中国银行业、监管部门和政府部门防范金融风险应采取的积极措施.     

反式住房抵押贷款在创建公平和谐社会中的作用

反式抵押贷款是一种以房屋所有权作抵押的贷款。它的特殊性在于贷款人是一些拥有完全房屋产权的老人。该项业务的开展,不仅可以扩大优质信贷规模、提高老人生活水平、扩大内需,还可以为我国正在加快实施的廉租房、经适房制度提供源源不断的房源。反式抵押贷款的尽快展开可以有效缓解社会老龄化带来的种种矛盾,因而能够有效促进创建公平和谐社会,促进我国的社会、经济健康发展。