Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects

Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the three rules. We use tests for multiple structural changes to identify the eras so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. With the original Taylor rule, monetary policy in the U.S. is characterized by a rules-based era until 1974, a discretionary era from 1974 to 1985, a rules-based era from 1985 to 2000, and a discretionary era from 2001 to 2013. With the modified Taylor rule, the rules-based era extends further into the 1970s and there is an additional rules-based period starting in 2006. We calculate various loss functions and find that economic performance is uniformly better during rules-based eras than during discretionary eras, and that the original Taylor rule provides the largest loss during discretionary periods relative to loss during rules-based periods.     

Mary E. Switzer: The Entrepreneur Within the Federal Bureaucracy

A bstract . Mary E. Switzer (1901-1972), a federal civil servant from 1921 to 1970, had a career which provides a case study of entrepreneurship within a bureaucracy. At first a staffer in progressive era social agencies, she became an assistant to Josephine Roche, well known advocate of government social programs. At first Switzer opposed federal health programs, believing that centralization of control would harm them. Then she became an advocate of federal aid to the local communities and health enterprises, with decentralized control over research and health services. Taking over vocational rehabilitation, she harmonized private and public power and at least managed to make a rehabilitation approach to social problems the cornerstone of President Eisenhower's domestic social welfare program. But the rehabilitation approach failed when applied to unemployment and poverty in general.     

A PATCHWORK SAFETY NET: A SURVEY OF CLIOMETRIC STUDIES OF INCOME MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS IN THE UNITED STATES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

Abstract Social welfare programs in the USA are designed to serve as safety nets for people in hard times, in contrast with the universal approach found in many other developed western nations. In a survey of cliometric studies of social welfare programs in the USA, we examine the variation in the safety net in the USA across states in the 20th century, the determinants of the variation and its impact on socioeconomic outcomes. The USA has always displayed substantial variation in the extent of the safety net because the features of most public social welfare programs have been and currently are determined by local and state governments, even after the federal government became involved in the 1930s. Differences across states persist strongly for typically a decade, although the persistence weakens with time, and there are some periods when federal intervention led to a re‐ordering. The rankings of state benefits differ from program to program, and economic and political factors have different weights in determining benefit levels in panel data estimation of their effects. Variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s had significant impact on labour markets, economic activity, family formation, death rates and crime.     

广义Stackelberg市场上企业横向兼并获利性研究

基于广义Stackelberg寡头垄断市场,研究企业横向兼并的获利性和社会福利问题。结果表明,一个领头企业与一个跟随企业之间总是存在兼并动机,而领头企业之间很少存在兼并动机;当边际生产成本的差异程度较大时,两个跟随企业之间总是存在兼并动机;兼并导致的企业利润增加是以社会福利下降为代价的。     

Eisenhower and Agricultural Reform:

A bstract The federal government began to manage American agriculture in the 1930s as a way of alleviating the economic plight of farmers during the Great Depression The various programs of the New Deal set up the mechanism for both curtailing production and storing agricultural surpluses During World War II, these same mechanisms were used to increase the supply of food and fiber Before 1948, the Truman administration sought to cut back federal subsidies , but reversed this policy due to campaign promises The Eisenhower administration initiated a change m farm policy aimed at promoting a free market orientation Subsequent Republican presidents have built upon this by seeking the free trade of agricultural commodities on a world scale     

从“公平的作用”看公平和效率的价值选择

公平与效率之间有着一定的内在的联系,都是社会发展所需要的。有效率,社会经济才会发展得更快;有公平,社会才稳定、和谐。没有效率的公平只能助长"懒汉作风",导致共同贫穷;没有公平的效率,则会产生贫富悬殊,造成两极分化。随着"和谐社会"的提出,现在政府无论在政策制定还是实施执行方面都越来越重视"公平的作用"。本研究从福利经济学角度分析了在效率与公平的权衡中,公平对促进效率及经济发展的重要作用,赞成实际收入更为公平的分配,即使这种分配可能是低效率的。     

Optimality and the government's risk management programs

This paper examines the optimality of the government's risk management programs in the area of environmental policy. A model of risk management for the government is developed under the presumption that the objective of risk management is avoidance of damages from two general classes of pollutants. This model is then used to make direct comparisons between solutions to the government's social welfare maximization problem and Pareto-optimal outcomes. The underlying economic rationale for each of the different outcomes is also discussed.     

Personality similarities and differences between Mexican and American business leaders

A study was conducted to investigate personality similarities and differences for a group of 200 business leaders, 100 each from Southern Mexico and the United States. Mexican and American leaders were administered the Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire (16PF) in their native language (Spanish or English). A demographic questionnaire solicited information about age, education, and gender. These variables were used as covariates in some analyses. After controlling for the effects of age, gender, and education level, the authors found that Mexican leaders scored higher than their American counterparts on the warmth, emotional stability, social boldness, and openness to change scales. American leaders scored higher on the abstractedness and self‐reliance scales. On scales related to leadership there were between‐nationality differences on emotional stability, social boldness, abstractedness, and self‐reliance. Additional studies are suggested to illuminate cross‐nationality similarities and differences.     

Resource balance, limited information and public policy

The U.S. Federal Government through its expenditure programs is having a major impact on all forms of pollution abatement. Total expenditures on Federal environmental programs amounted to $3.3 billion in 1972. A program of this magnitude can easily lead to waste and expenditures on conflicting goals unless carefully managed.

In a recent article in the Am. Econ. Rev. William Baumol examined the theoretical justification for and attacks on the Pigouvian tax and subsidy approach to controlling externalities. He concluded that while it is theoretically possible to control externalities through Pigou's procedure, the existence of multiple equilibrium and information requirements make it impractical. He proposes an alternate approach which changes the policy goal from maximization of social welfare to generation of acceptable levels of externalities. His goals differ drastically from those of the resource balance model presented by Kneese, Ayres and D'Arge of maximization of social welfare. This paper will combine the concept of resource balance with the goal of obtaining acceptable level of externalities at minimum cost in the presentation of a theoretical model that can be operationalized.

This paper proposes a general equilibrium method, utilizing the decomposition principle of linear programming, that will permit expenditures and regulations only on non-conflicting goals and includes a feedback mechanism for determining if a program is wasteful in relation to other programs. The model has five advantages over earlier proposals: (1) it is a general equilibrium rather than partial equilibrium model; (2) it is dynamic rather than static; (3) limited information rather than complete information is required for its implementation; (4) the model is heuristic rather than optimizing in the sense that policy decisions always increase the efficiency of pollution control, but because of the existence of uncertainty, they cannot be interpreted as maximizing social welfare; (5) the model incorporates multiple rather than a single policy tool.     

Private law enforcement with competing groups

This paper introduces groups that are in conflict against each other in law enforcement policy. These groups can have an effect on the process of law enforcement by making upfront investments, such as bribes. We also investigate consequences when a policy maker acts to maximize a bribe instead of social welfare. Thus, this paper presents an inclusive framework for incorporating private law enforcement, corruption and avoidance activities. This article shows that this competition can lead to moderate and more efficient law enforcement activities. This indicates that inefficient law enforcement by authority with harm reduction motivation can be avoided. Additionally, this paper shows that depending on the policy maker’s objection between rent-seeking motivation or social welfare maximizer, deterrence effects vary. This paper provides a clear mechanism that the rent-seeking motivated policy maker tends to set less severe enforcement policies than the social welfare level.     

How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?

By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which assumes a currency union consisting of two countries with nontradables, we study the importance of fiscal policy cooperation. As shown in the previous studies, we find that the role of fiscal policy is important in maximizing social welfare. However, we have a contrary result for fiscal policy cooperation. While the previous studies highlight that fiscal policy cooperation has a nontrivial effect in maximizing social welfare, we show that fiscal policy cooperation has no benefits, regardless of the share of nontradables. Self-oriented fiscal policy can replicate social welfare under the cooperative setting.     

美国教师领导培养政策的框架及启示

美国的教师领导概念经过20多年的发展,已经由理论走向了实践,从联邦到地方形成了一个比较完善的教师领导培养框架,培养了一大批优秀的教师领导者,值得我国参考借鉴。     

The effect of voluntary brownfields programs on nearby property values: Evidence from Illinois

Brownfields are properties whose redevelopment is hampered by known or suspected contamination and by concerns about associated liability. Because failing to redevelop brownfields may negatively affect welfare and the environment, a number of states have created voluntary programs to reduce liability risks and encourage redevelopment of brownfields. For clean or remediated properties, the state certifies that owners of such sites are not subject to federal or state liability under certain conditions. Certification could increase nearby property values because of decreased contamination risk and amenities associated with redeveloping the brownfield. This paper focuses on the Site Remediation Program in Illinois, and estimates the effect of brownfields certification on nearby property values. Employing several strategies to account for unobserved and time-varying variables that may be correlated with certification, I find that the entry and certification of a brownfield 0.25 miles away raises the value of a property by about 1% compared to an otherwise identical property.     

On the cost-benefit of the regionalisation of the National Health Service

In this paper we analyse in formal terms the desirability of the regionalisation of a National Health Service. The policy consists of a devolution process, i.e. the increase in the health services provision to be decided by a region and financed by an increase in its revenues. The change is a marginal one, as it regards the part of supply of the health services exceeding a minimum standard, which for purposes of equity is maintained uniform in the national territory. As the central government is responsible for this component of the provision of health care (a federal “mandate”), the level of the said component is chosen by this authority and financed by federal taxation. Moreover, the government also applies an equalisation scheme based on the difference between a standard level of tax revenues and the revenues which the region is deemed able to raise for this purpose. Within the theoretical context of welfare improving reforms with distortionary taxation, we derive two conditions which focus on the regional, as well as the social, convenience of regionalisation. Received: May 5, 1999 / Accepted: January 21, 2000     

Assisted Housing and the Educational Attainment of Children

This paper examines the long-term effects of assisted housing on the educational attainment of children. It is based on unique data, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID)-Assisted Housing Database, in which we have matched addresses of all PSID sample members to addresses of federal and state assisted housing. Using a two-stage instrumental variable approach, the inferior educational outcomes of children who live in public housing disappear when measured characteristics are taken into account, while unmeasured characteristics have insignificant effects. We also find neither positive nor negative effects of privately owned assisted housing. These findings are similar to those on the effects of other social welfare programs.     

From Antagonistic to Cooperative Federalism on Water Resources Development

A bstract . A major reason for the antagonism among federal, state, and local water resources planners may be their lack of understanding of the policymaking process. Water resources policies not only distribute social, economic, and physical benefits , they also have redistributive, regulatory, and social effects. The federal government is not capable of leadership in all four policy areas. Neither, however, are localities or the states. Planners, therefore, need to develop a viable mix of policy responsibilities so that each level has primary authority over the type of policy it is best suited to develop and implement. Analysis of the capacities of each level of government indicates that the federal government should provide regulatory objectives through such legislation as the Clean Water Act and Safe Drinking Water Act , and provide support for state redistributive efforts through a restructuring of water resources grants-in-aid to reward states that improve their policy planning capabilities. The states' most appropriate role is development of a planning process. Social policy is the most appropriate sphere of local action.     

CAN WE PUT POOR MEN TO WORK?

Compared with Britain, welfare reform in the United States has relied less on incentives and more on administrative work tests. Parallel to welfare reform, American states have begun requiring men to work who owe child support or are on parole from prison. Evaluations of men's work programmes to date are encouraging, but implementing these programmes is demanding. The federal government should promote their further expansion and evaluation. Britain has yet to take serious steps in the same directions.     

Traffic externalities in cities: The economics of speed bumps,low emission zones and city bypasses

This paper considers various policy measures that governments can use to reduce traffic externalities in cities. Unlike much of the available literature that emphasized congestion, we focus on measures that reduce pollution, noise and some accident risks. These measures include noise barriers, speed bumps, traffic lights, tolls, emission standards, low emission zones, and bypass capacity to guide traffic around the city center. Using a simple model that distinguishes local and through traffic, we study the optimal use of these instruments by an urban government that cares for the welfare of its residents, and we compare the results with those preferred by a federal authority that also takes into account the welfare of road users from outside the city. Our results include the following. First, compared to the federal social optimum, we show that the city government will over-invest in externality-reducing infrastructure whenever this infrastructure increases the generalized cost of through traffic. We can therefore expect an excessive number of speed bumps and traffic lights, but the right investment in noise barriers. Second, when implementing low emission zones, the urban government will set both the fee for non-compliance and the emission standard at a more stringent level than the federal government. Moreover, at sufficiently high levels of through traffic the urban government will prefer imposing a toll instead of implementing a low emission zone. Third, whatever the tolling instruments in place, the city will always underinvest in bypass capacity. Finally, if it can toll all roads but is forced to invest all bypass toll revenue in the bypass, it will never invest in bypass capacity. Although the paper focuses on non-congestion externalities, most insights also hold in the presence of congestion.     

Smoking in the Workplace: Balancing Smoker and Nonsmoker Rights

The tobacco industry presents an interesting American dilemma. While warning against the use of tobacco and striving for a smokeless society the U.S. government subsidizes the growth of tobacco. The economic impact of smoking is, on balance, negative for users, nonusers and society. The federal government does not legislate the use of tobacco but most states and many municipalities have smoking laws. Although such laws vary they normally attempt to protect the rights of both smokers and nonsmokers. Workplace smoking policies also vary but generally focus on applicable laws, health research findings, employee preferences, involvement in policy determination, formalization and communication, and smoking cessation programs.     

Social dumping and relocation: is there a case for imposing a social clause?

Public opinion in Europe seems worried about the relocation of production plants toward low wage countries often accused of practicing ‘social dumping’. To reduce the incentives for relocation trade unions proposed the adoption of ‘social clauses’ protecting domestic markets from commodities produced in countries where minimal labor condition are not met. We analyze the effects of the adoption of a social clause in a vertically differentiated Bertrand duopoly. We assess how such a policy affects firms’ relocation decisions in order to be able to assess its welfare implications. We also characterize the optimal social clause policy, both under domestic welfare maximization, and from an efficiency point of view. While we show that a social clause policy cannot be dismissed on domestic (or world) welfare grounds, its case is weaker the higher is the domestic wage and the lower is the foreign wage.