Modeling the business risk of financially weakened firms: A new approach for corporate bond pricing

Most structural models of default risk assume that the firm's asset return is normally distributed, with a constant volatility. By contrast, this article details the properties that the process of assets should have in the case of financially weakened firms. It points out that jump-diffusion processes with time-varying volatility provide a refined and accurate perspective on the business risk dimension of default risk. Representative Arrow-Debreu state price densities (SPD) and term structures of credit spreads are then explored. The credit curves show that the business uncertainties play a major in the pricing of corporate liabilities.     

A perturbative approach to Bermudan options pricing with applications

In this paper we address the problem of the valuation of Bermudan option derivatives in the framework of multi-factor interest rate models. We propose a solution in which the exercise decision entails a properly defined series expansion. The method allows for the fast computation of both a lower and an upper bound for the option price, and a tight control of its accuracy, for a generic Markovian interest rate model. In particular, we show detailed computations in the case of the Bond Market Model. As examples we consider the case of a zero coupon Bermudan option and a coupon bearing Bermudan option; in order to demonstrate the wide applicability of the proposed methodology we also consider the case of a last generation payoff, a Bermudan option on a CMS spread bond.     

Pseudospectral methods for pricing options

Models with two or more risk sources have been widely applied in option pricing in order to capture volatility smiles and skews. However, the computational cost of implementing these models can be large—especially for American-style options. This paper illustrates how numerical techniques called ‘pseudospectral’ methods can be used to solve the partial differential and partial integro-differential equations that apply to these multifactor models. The method offers significant advantages over finite-difference and Monte Carlo simulation schemes in terms of accuracy and computational cost.     

Confucian culture and corporate bond pricing

We investigate the effect of Confucian culture on corporate bond pricing. Using the birthplace data of 56,759 Jinshi in the Ming and Qing dynasties to construct a proxy of Confucian culture, we find a significantly negative relation between Confucian culture and bond pricing: the stronger the Confucian atmosphere of the corporate headquarters’ location, the higher the bond rating and the lower the credit spread. This conclusion still holds after using the distance to the nearest ancient printing office as an instrumental variable and a series of robustness tests. The mechanism test shows that Confucian culture can improve the pricing efficiency of corporate bonds by fostering investors’ trust, alleviating principal–agent problems and restraining bad corporate behaviors. Moreover, the impact of Confucian culture on corporate bond pricing is greater for firms located in regions with weak legal and other formal institutional constraints and for unlisted companies. Our study complements the literature on culture and bond pricing, and provides policy insights from traditional Chinese wisdom for improving the efficiency of financial markets.     

Leverage, imports, profitability, exchange rates, and capital investment: a panel data study of the textile and apparel industries 1974-1987

This paper explores the relationship between capital structure and import competition for the textile and apparel industries from 1974-1987. The level of import penetration should have an important effect on business risk and hence on financial leverage. We also examine the response of leverage to the interrelationships that may exist between import competition and three other factors: firm profitability, strength of the dollar, and investment in capital equipment.The evidence suggests that leverage for the textile firms increases with rising imports but that the effect is less marked if the imports are the result of a strengthening dollar. The textile firms also seem to have inaugurated a capital investment campaign in reaction to import competition. For apparel firms, the interrelationship between profitability and import penetration seems to have been the primary determinant of leverage.     

Diagnosing affine models of options pricing: Evidence from VIX

Affine jump-diffusion models have been the mainstream in options pricing because of their analytical tractability. Popular affine jump-diffusion models, however, are still unsatisfactory in describing the options data and the problem is often attributed to the diffusion term of the unobserved state variables. Using prices of variance-swaps (i.e., squared VIX) implied from options prices, we provide fresh evidence regarding the misspecification of affine jump-diffusion models, as variance-swap prices are affine functions of the state variables in a broader class of models that do not restrict the diffusion term of the state variables. We apply the nonparametric methodology used by Aït-Sahalia (1996b), supplemented with bootstrap tests and other parametric tests, to the S&P 500 index options data from January 1996 to September 2008. We find that, while the affine diffusion term of the state variables may contribute to the misspecification as the literature has suggested, the affine drift of the state variables, jump intensities, and risk premiums are also sources of misspecification.     

美式期权的Monte Carlo模拟法定价理论及应用

近年来随着计算机技术的飞速发展,美式期权的Monte Carlo模拟法定价取得了实质性的突破。本文分析介绍了美式期权的Monte Carlo模拟法定价理论及在此基础上推导出的线性回归MonteCarlo模拟法定价公式及其在实际的应用。     

The valuation and behavior of black-scholes options subject to intertemporal default risk

This paper addresses the valuation and behavior of European options subject to intertemporal writer default risk. The framework allows the timing of default and recovery value to be uncertain. Default is said to occur if the writer's creditworthiness violates a specified critical level-both stochastic. Various recovery scenarios are considered including linking recovery to the moneyness of the option at the time of default. In an application of the model, it is estimated that current customer margin requirements for exchange-traded options are set far in excess of the fair market value.     

The capital structure of multinational companies under tax competition

This article studies the relation between debt policies of multinational companies (MNCs) and governments’ tax strategies. In the first part, we show that the ability to shift income from high- to low-tax countries affects MNCs’ financial choices. In the second part we show how MNCs’ financial decisions can affect the tax strategies of two governments competing to attract income.      

Currency boards, dollarized liabilities, and monetary policy credibility

The recent collapse of the Argentine currency board raises new questions about the desirability of formal fixed exchange rate regimes. This paper examines the relative performance of a currency board with costly abandonment in the presence of dollarized liabilities to a fully-discretionary regime. Our results demonstrate that neither regime necessarily dominates with only idiosyncratic firm shocks, but discretion unambiguously dominates with the addition of shocks to the dollar-euro rate. The relatively strong performance of the discretionary regime in this model stems from the benign impact of dollarized liabilities on the monetary authority’s time-inconsistency problem.     

Leverage adjustment after mergers and acquisitions

Australian firms have leverage targets. Speeds of adjustment to a target capital structure are higher than previously published estimates when there are major disruptions to firms’ leverage ratios. Firms exploit company‐specific characteristics to achieve these targets. Profitability and cash levels are important drivers of the speeds of adjustment. Firms, which have lower profitability or higher cash levels, appear to adjust faster.     

Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds

This paper presents a systematic comparison between the determinants of euro and US dollar yield spread dynamics. The results show that US dollar yield spreads are significantly more affected by changes in the level and the slope of the default-free term structure and the stock market return and volatility. Surprisingly, euro yield spreads are strongly affected by the US (and not the euro) level and slope. This confirms the dominance of US interest rates in the corporate bond markets. Interestingly, I find that liquidity risk is higher for US dollar corporate bonds than euro corporate bonds. For both regions, the effect of changes in the bid-ask spread is mainly significant during periods of high liquidity risk. Finally, the results indicate that the credit cycle as measured by the region-specific default probability significantly increases US yield spreads. This is not the case for euro yield spreads.     

Growth options,macroeconomic conditions,and the cross section of credit risk

This paper develops a structural equilibrium model with intertemporal macroeconomic risk, incorporating the fact that firms are heterogeneous in their asset composition. Compared with firms that are mainly composed of invested assets, firms with growth options have higher costs of debt because they are more volatile and have a greater tendency to default during recession when marginal utility is high and recovery rates are low. Our model matches empirical facts regarding credit spreads, default probabilities, leverage ratios, equity premiums, and investment clustering. Importantly, it also makes predictions about the cross section of all these features.     

Unbounded liabilities,capital reserve requirements and the taxpayer put option

When firms access unbounded liability exposures and are granted limited liability, then an all equity firm holds a call option, whereby it receives a free option to put losses back to the taxpayers. We call this option the taxpayer put, where the strike is the negative of the level of reserve capital at stake in the firm. We contribute by (i) valuing this taxpayer put, and (ii) determining the level for reserve capital without a reference to ratings. Reserve capital levels are designed to mitigate the adverse incentives for unnecessary risk introduced by the taxpayer put at the firm level. In our approach, the level of reserve capital is set to make the aggregate risk of the firm externally acceptable, where the specific form of acceptability employed is positive expectation under a concave distortion of the cash flow distribution. It is observed that, in the presence of the taxpayer put, debt holders may not be relied upon to monitor risk as their interests are partially aligned with equity holders by participating in the taxpayer put. Furthermore, the taxpayer put leads to an equity pricing model associated with a market discipline that punishes perceived cash shortfalls.     

The effect of unfunded pension liabilities on corporate bond ratings,default risk,and recovery rate

Unfunded pension liabilities lower ratings of non-senior secured bonds but do not affect ratings of senior secured bonds due to their higher seniority. Pension funding improvement (deterioration) is associated with bond rating upgrade (downgrade). Moreover, large unfunded liabilities increase bond default risk and reduce the recovery rate of bondholders after controlling for credit ratings, suggesting that bond ratings do not fully capture pension underfunding risk. Overall, our results highlight the important effects of unfunded pension obligations on bond ratings, default risk, and creditors’ payoff, and suggest that investors should look beyond bond ratings in making investment decisions.     

Structural models of corporate bond pricing with personal taxes

The structural approach offers an integrated framework to deal with yield spreads and default probability simultaneously. However, structural models perform poorly in predicting corporate bond spreads. It is unclear whether this poor performance is caused by characteristics of individual models, missing factors, or different calibration procedures. This study evaluates the performance of four structural models by incorporating two important factors, personal taxes and the liquidity factor, and calibrating these models to data. To ensure our results are not contingent on the calibration method, we further apply the maximum likelihood estimation method to a large sample of individual bonds. Results consistently show that the ability of structural models to predict spreads improves considerably when personal taxes and liquidity are taken into account. Our findings suggest that the poor performance of standard structural models is more likely due to missing factors than the characteristics of individual models or the calibration procedure.     

Model misspecification analysis for bond options and Markovian hedging strategies

In this paper, we analyse the model misspecification risk of Markovian hedging strategies for discount bond options. We show how to decompose the Profit and Loss that results from model misspecification, and emphasize the importance of the position’s gamma in order to control it. We further provide mathematical results on the distribution of the forward Profit and Loss function for specific univariate term structure models. Finally, we run numerical simulations for options’ hedging strategies in order to examine the sensitivity of the forward Profit and Loss function with respect to the volatility of the forward rate curve, the frequency of the position rebalancing and the characteristics of the position being hedged.      

Stock options and capital structure

We show that value-maximizing CEOs compensated with stock options prefer debt to equity. Our pecking order result does not depend on managerial risk aversion, managerial firm-specific human capital, or asymmetric information. Moreover, our result holds at least weakly regardless of the distribution of firm cash flows and strictly as long as the support of the cash flow distribution is big enough to bring all features of the stock option contract into play with positive probability JEL Classification Numbers: G0, G3 An earlier version of this paper was completed while Page was visiting CERMSEM at Paris 1 and the University of Warwick. Page gratefully acknowledges the support and hospitality of CERMSEM, Paris 1 and Warwick. Page also gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies and the Culverhouse College of Business at the University of Alabama. Both authors are grateful to seminar participants in the Financial Markets Group Workshop at LSE for many helpful comments and both authors are especially grateful to an anonymous referee whose detailed and insightful comments led to substantial improvements in the paper     

Leverage,executive incentives and corporate governance

This paper analyses the effect of executive incentives and internal governance on capital structure. Using a large sample of non‐financial US‐listed firms over the period 1999–2005, it is found that managers have different attitudes towards leverage when offered different incentive schemes; leverage initially decreases in bonuses and stock incentives and then increases in these incentives after a certain incentive level, suggesting the existence of the entrenchment–alignment effects under these incentive schemes. In contrast, leverage initially increases in option incentives and then decreases after a certain option incentive level. When all of these incentive schemes are combined together into a single incentive package, the entrenchment–alignment effects prevail. It is also found that leverage increases in internal governance and managers behave differently under different governance regimes such that the entrenchment–alignment effects prevail under weak governance firms, whereas the alignment–entrenchment effects prevail under strong governance firms. The results also suggest that managers’ target leverage ratio is less than the one predicted by theory or preferred by firm shareholders.     

Backward simulation methods for pricing American options under the CIR process

In this paper, we focus on backward simulation of the CIR process. The purpose is to solve the memory requirement issue of the Least Squares Monte Carlo method when pricing American options by simulation. The concept of backward simulation is presented and it is classified into two types. Under the framework of the second type backward simulation, we seek the solutions for the existing CIR schemes. Specifically, we propose forward–backward simulation approaches for Alfonsi’s two implicit schemes, the fixed Euler schemes and the exact scheme. The proposed schemes are numerically tested and compared in pricing American options under the Heston model and the stochastic interest rate model. Some numerical properties such as the convergence order of the explicit–implicit Euler schemes, the storage requirement estimation of the forward–backward exact scheme and its computing time comparison with the squared Bessel bridge are also tested. Finally, the pros and cons of the related backward simulation schemes are summarized.