北美自由贸易区简析

北美自由贸易区简析高颖北美自由贸易区的优越性由美国、加拿大和墨西哥三国组成的北美自由贸易区横跨整个北美大陆，其规模之巨大，资源之丰富，远远超过了包括欧共体在内的世界上所有现存的自由贸易区。据估计，北美自由贸易区三国的工农业总产值将超过欧洲经济共同体２...     

北美自由贸易协议对美国预算和经济的影响

概述 在执行北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)中,为了排除存在于美国、加拿大和墨西哥之间的贸易的投资方面的障碍,有关立法工作是克林顿政府在国际贸易方面的最严峻挑战之一。本报告分析了北美自由贸易协议对美国经济和联邦预算的主要影响。     

NAFTA的金融服务协议分析

ＮＡＦＴＡ的金融服务协议分析曲如晓１９９４年１月１日，北美自由贸易协定（ＮｏｒｔｈＡｍｅｒｉｃａＦｒｅｅＴｒａｄｅＡｇｒｅｅｍｅｎｔ——ＮＡＦＴＡ）已在美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国间正式实施。这是世界上最大的自由贸易区域，人口３．６亿，国民生产总值超过６...     

欧元区主要国家间财政政策协调与经济周期协动性关系研究

本文利用1983—2012年数据,测算欧元区国家间财政赤字离散度反映财政政策协调,利用HP滤波、皮尔逊相关系数判断经济周期协动性,并结合三期面板模型研究了欧元区财政政策协调与经济周期协动性的关系,实证结果表明欧元区主要国家间"财政离散"与经济周期的协动性显著负相关,即国家间财政政策协调能力下降,则国家间经济周期的协动性将会下降,而财政趋同有利于经济协动,并能缓解欧元区经济波动及由此对欧元带来的打击,财政政策协调是治理危机的一条出路,本文对此提出了具体的政策建议。     

略谈北美自由贸易区法的内容及特点

北美自由贸易区在加拿大、墨西哥和美国之间促进贸易和投资，削减关税和非关税壁垒，它也使三国之问的货物运输、金融交易更加便捷。但每一个国家都继续保持自己对局外地区的进口的关税率和配额。每个国家将继续建立他们自己的经济政策并以单独的身份参加WTO体系。     

北美自由贸易协议：对非协议成员国的贸易影响

北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)如果得以执行后,不仅将影响到美国与墨西哥和加拿大的贸易,而且也会影响到非NAFTA协议成员国的贸易。虽然NAFTA对非协议成员国的贸易影响(非协议成员国占美国贸易总数的3/4)预计不会太大,不过某种牵制作用必定要发生,甚至会给某些贸易伙伴带来严重影响。     

评北美自由贸易协定

评北美自由贸易协定隋启水（国家科委科技成果司副处长）一、北美自由贸易区的成立美国、加拿大、墨西哥北美自由贸易协定计划在１５年内消除三国间的贸易障碍，组成拥有３．６亿人口及总额约达７００００亿美元消费额的自由化市场─—世界上最大的自由化市场，比欧洲共同...     

北美自由贸易协议中的环境问题

北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)中的环保问题一直是协议争议的焦点,1993年8月13日,美国、加拿大和墨西哥三方终于就不降低环境标准问题取得谅解,达成“补充协定”。 据宣布,这次谈成的“补充协定”包括四个部分:关于环境问题、关于劳工问题、关于墨美边境地区环境计划资金问题、关于采取紧急措施问题。     

中国省域经济周期波动与协动性研究

通过研究1979—2017年我国31个省(区市)经济周期的波动特征和协动性水平发现,随着改革开放的不断深入,我国省域经济周期波动呈现平滑化、微波化特征,1995年后协动性水平明显增强,密度、距离、分割、异质性(即"4D")对省域经济周期协动性均具有显著影响。在"4D"影响中,地理毗邻与周期协动性负相关,反映出我国相邻各省域间分割严重,行政和贸易壁垒问题较强;人均GDP差距与周期协动性正相关,反映出我国省域经济周期协动性水平整体虽然提高,但人均收入扩大的趋势尚未改善。在分区域"4D"影响分析中发现,东部地区受外商直接投资度、产业结构差异影响最大,中部地区受对外开放度、人均GDP差距影响最大,西部地区受对外开放度、产业结构差异影响最大。地理毗邻变量在东、中、西部三地的回归结果均不显著,说明三地内部省域分割仍然比较严重,区域一体化程度有待提高。     

北美自由贸易协议——美国—墨两哥贸易额与投资数据

本文主要介绍美国与墨西哥的贸易额、投资数据及部分相关政策:1980—1991年墨与美及其他一些国家的双边贸易流向;1980—1991年第三国在墨和美的直接投资以及其他一些国家在墨的直接投资;1280—1991年墨的“出口产品加工厂”营业情况。 美墨自由贸易协议背景 1990年6月,美国与墨西哥发表联合声明,表示支持自由贸易协议谈判。布什总统于     

Mexico's Business Cycles and Synchronization with the USA in the Post‐NAFTA Years

A number of papers have investigated the increasing macroeconomic ties between Mexico and the USA. These studies have relied on linear models, however, making their results suspect. Other papers have investigated nonlinearity over the Mexican business cycle, but have not studied the links between the Mexican and US economies. In this paper a Markov‐switching model is employed to investigate the changing macroeconomic effect of the USA on Mexico. The findings show that the USA indeed appears to have a much larger impact since the passage of the North Atlantic Free Trade Association (NAFTA) than in previous years. Results also indicate that the level of foreign exchange reserves has much less predictive power for the Mexican economy since NAFTA. This suggests that the greater synchronization with the US business cycle may be more attributable to better macroeconomic management in Mexico than to the closer trade links.     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BILATERAL TRADE EFFECTS

This study evaluates the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on bilateral trade between the United States and Canada and between the United States and Mexico. Trade flow estimates are from a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The VAR methodology allows modeling bilateral trade in a flexible manner that incorporates both the interaction between different variables and the dynamics of trade, output, prices, and the exchange rate. After testing the outside sample forecasting ability of the models, the study produces dynamic forecasts of bilateral trade. It then compares forecasts incorporating the effects of the NAFTA with baseline forecasts. The results suggest expanded trade for all three countries and an improvement in the U.S. trade position with both Canada and Mexico.     

Liberalizing NAFTA Rules of Origin: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

Most computable general-equilibrium (CGE) studies assessing the welfare impact of moving from a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to a deeper form of integration, for example a customs union (CU), typically proxy the integration as the adoption of a common external tariff toward the rest of the world. However, a CU is also an arrangement that allows for the elimination of FTAs' preferential rules of origin (ROO), which is typically not captured in CGE studies. This paper addresses the issue using a multicountry, multisector dynamic CGE model. Although the removal of distortionary ROO is likely to lower the unit costs of production within North America, it may also deteriorate North American terms of trade with the rest of the world. Thus, the net effect of the removal of NAFTA ROO on welfare is ambiguous and is an empirical issue.     

Causes of Growth and Decline in Mexico’s Maquiladora Apparel Sector

Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) beginning in 1994, the maquiladora sector was the dynamic manufacturing sector in Mexico, and its apparel subsector was especially so, more than quadrupling in employment from December 1993 to July 2000. Yet NAFTA’s influence on apparel employment is hard to find in a careful time series econometric analysis. Instead, much of employment growth is explained for 1980 to the present by changes in US demand as measured by real US gross domestic product or by real US apparel spending, by US/Mexico relative labor cost as proxied by the real peso‐dollar exchange rate, and by the relaxation of quotas on US apparel imports from Mexico in 1988–1990. In equations including these variables, tests for a structural break at the time of NAFTA find an effect which is either insignificant or else quite small and in some models negative. Possible explanations for this surprising result are discussed, along with the implications for cost–benefit analysis of free trade agreements.     

NAFTA AND THE MAQUILADORAS: BOON OR BANE?

This article examines the factors that affect the value added of the maquiladoras as a group as well as the apparel, electrical equipment, food, furniture, and motor vehicle equipment industries. It also explores the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the maquiladoras. The economic variables of relative wage rates, relative prices between Mexico and the United States, and U.S. real gross domestic product generally appear to have their expected effects. However, with the possible exceptions of the clothing and electrical equipment industries, this study suggests that NAFTA had either a negative impact or no effect on the maquiladoras. ( JEL F14, 054)     

Purchasing power parity vs. uncovered interest rate parity for NAFTA countries: The value of incorporating time-varying parameter model

In 1994, the United States, Canada, and Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to strengthen economic cooperation. To examine the effects of the NAFTA, this study revisits Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for NAFTA countries by applying a time-varying cointegration model. Under the time-varying assumption, it improves the explanatory power of reality via the model specification test. Given that, the validity of PPP for NAFTA countries varies over time. Especially, the PPP elasticity based on the consumer price index (CPI) is more volatile than the producer price index (PPI) -based. Thus, the stabilization policy of the consumption sector must be a high priority over the production sector. Moreover, the validity of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) is examined by the time-varying cointegration model. The aim is to compare the results of the PPP and UIRP. This suggests that the PPP is more useful than the UIRP in evaluating the movement of the exchange rate in the long-run.     

Changes in the second-moment properties of disaggregated capital flows

Using formal statistical tests, we detect (i) significant volatility increases for various types of capital flows for a period of changes in business cycle comovement among the G7 countries, and (ii) mixed evidence of changes in covariances and correlations with a set of macroeconomic variables.     

PACIFIC RIM TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT: HISTORICAL ENVIRONMENT AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Pacific Asia is deep rooted in its cultural heritage and historical background, which have set the tone for regions success. These same factors also have created rather different trading practices, compared with those of the West — practices that are less transparent and full of hidden private trade barriers.
Interdependence within the region suggests integration, but Pacific Asia has taken a course of non-exclusive cooperation rather than following the exclusive course of the European Community (EC) and of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The latter two trade blocs threaten the continued success and development of Pacific Asia. Although the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) sends relief, fostering a cooperative rather than a retaliative Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organization offers the most promise.     

A note on Canadian migration to the United States during the 1980s and 1990s

Considerable media attention had been directed towards the flow of highly talented Canadians to the United States in the 1990s. There are firm theoretical reasons, however, to believe that qualitative differences in migration began as early as the 1980s, owing to the widening distribution of earnings and the related increased returns to education in the United States relative to Canada, both of which could result in qualitative improvements in the migration flow. US immigration policy remained essentially unchanged during the 1980s, but changed markedly in the 1990s owing to the implementation of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (CUFTA) and its successor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We use a flexible empirical approach to document these changes in immigrant quality using 1980, 1990 and 2000 US census data. Our results suggest that improvements in Canadian immigrant quality occurred during the 1990s, but these also happened earlier, casting doubt on the hypothesis of improving Canadian immigrant quality in the 1990s. Quantile regressions also show that improvement in the entry quality of immigrants was not limited to the upper tail of the earnings distribution.