SUPPLY AREA OPTIMIZATION IN THE WESTERN CANADIAN HOG MARKET*

The study of marketing systems normally proceeds from an analysis of the existing structure. These post-facto studies at best provide an evaluation of the system's efficiency and the areas in which improvements can be made. This study, however, was initiated in order to determine the optimal network of assembly points throughout the prairie provinces for the efficient marketing of hogs. This prior determination of the optimal size and location of assembly yards and the corresponding flows of hogs from the producing regions to the assembly points and then to the plants would then be available for use in designing changes in the existing systems or in implementing a new structure. The model used in this study was a modified transhipment model utilizing various truck transfer costs and per hog cost-volume functions for the operation of the assembly yards. The model is readily amenable to further modifications to allow alternatives to be simulated. The use of this or similar techniques to evaluate various conditions should facilitate better design of structures within the Canadian agricultural industry line étude des systèmes de distribution suit habituellement une analyse de la structure existame. Pour dire le mieux, ces etudes post-facto nous donnent une évaluation de ?efficacité du système et des zones où on peut envisager des améliorations. Cette étude-ci, cependant, a eté initiée avec ?intenlion de déterminer le réseau optime de lieux ?assemblage à travers les provinces de ?Ouest pour la vente efficace de pores. On pourrait alors se servir de cette délimitation antérieure de la grandeur et de la location optimes de dépôts ?assemblage et du volume correspondent de pores provenant des régions producteurs et passant par les points ?assemblage pour arriver aux usines pour faire des changements dans les systèmes qui existent à présent ou pour mettre en oeuvre une structure nouvelle. Le modèle utilisé dans cette étude est un modèle modifyé de transbordement qui se sen de divers prix de transports en camion el des fonctions du prix par volume de pore pour ?opération des dépôts ?assemblage. Ce modèle peut facilement accommoder des modifications addition-nelles pour permetlre la simulation d“alternatives. ?emploi de cette technique ou des techniques semblables pour évaluer divers conditions devrait faciliter une meilleure projection de structures dans I'industrie agricole canadienne.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF PRICES AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE CANADIAN MEAT INDUSTRY1

This paper examines the determinants of the prices of cattle, calves, pigs, and lambs, of the wholesale and retail prices of beef, veal, pork, and lamb, and of employment in the Canadian meat industry. Of particular concern is the trade in livestock and meat between Canada and the U.S. and the degree to which Canadian prices can be said to be determined by U.S. livestock prices. Wholesale meat prices are expressed as functions of live animal prices, wages, and the volume of production in the meat processing industry. Retail prices are functions of wholesale prices and a proxy variable for labour cost at the retail level. Employment is expressed as a function of wages and the volume of production in the meal processing industry. Estimates of these relationships account for a large percentage of the variation of prices and employment in the period 1950 to 1970. Cet article étudie les facteurs déterminant les prix du gros bélail, des veaux, des pores el des moutons, les prix de gros et de bétail des viandes de boeuf, de veau, de pore et de mouton. et le miveau de ?emploi dans ?industrie canadienne de la viande. Tout parliculièrement est analysé le commerce du cheptel et de la viande entre Canada et Etats-Unis, et la mesure dans lauuelle les prix du cheptel aux Etats-Unis déterminent les prix canadiens. Les prix de gros de la viande sonl exprimés en fonciion du prix de ?animal sur pied el des salaires et volume de production dans ?induslrie de la viande; les prix de bélail en fonciion des prix de gros el ?une variable représentative du coûl de la main ?oeuvre au niveau du belail; le niveau de ?emploi en fonciion des salaires el du volume de production dans ?induslrie de la viande. Les résultats obtenus a partir de ces relations expliuueni pour une large part les variations des prix et du niveau de ?emploi duranl lapériode 1950–1970     

DETERMINANTS OF CHANGE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN FEEDER-CATTLE ECONOMY

Changing flow patterns characterize the North American cattle industry, which are having a significant impact on all aspects of Canadian agriculture. A brief review of important changes taking place in the feeder cattle industry is given together with an analysis of forces influencing the changing interregional economic relationships.
The results suggest an increasing rate of adjustment may be needed in the future as the economic variables and technological advances responsible for much of the change in the past continue to influence the Canadian cattle industry. The impact of change will not occur evenly across all areas and segments of the industry with the interregional trends that have developed particularly the expansion in flows from Western Canada to the Western United States showing no sign of slowing down. Eastern Canada may be under increasing pressure to expand either its imports of feeder cattle and dressed beef or develop its own feeder supply.     

芜湖市土地利用及其结构变化分析

分析了芜湖市土地利用现状,对近年来土地利用结构的变化特点及其原因进行了探讨;针对芜湖市土地利用中存在的问题,提出了合理利用土地资源的对策。     

滁州市的土地利用

分析了滁州市土利用结构的变化,土地利用现状结构,并着重对土地利用结构变化的社会经济因素进行了剖析,提出了合理利用土地资源的具体途径。     

THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION*

In this paper is presented an analysis of the consumption patterns of beer, wine and spirits for Australia using data for the period 1955/56-1985/86. The validity of the demand theory hypotheses demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry has been tested using recently developed distribution? free procedures. The findings were that (i) beer and wine were necessities and spirits a strong luxury; (ii) beer and spirits are specific complements; and (iii) the homogeneity and symmetry hypotheses are acceptable. Preference for wine consumption seems to be independent of preference for beer and spirits.     

THE CONCEPT OF EFFECTIVE SUBSIDY AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CANADIAN FLOUR MILLING INDUSTRY*

The export subsidy has been a perennial bone of contention to competing exporters of various commodities in international trade, particularly in agricultural trade. A typical example is the world trade in flour. Export subsidies on flour exports by large competitors are generally thought to be one of the main causes of the decline in the Canadian share of the world flour market. Previous studies have been confined to an analysis of nominal subsidy rates on flour; quantifications are needed to estimate the effectiveness of the subsidies in fuller terms. Therefore, it is desirable to develop an appropriate concept for treating export subsidies explicitly. The present study attempts to develop a model to estimate the effectiveness of export subsidies net of input distortion so as to arrive at “the effective rate of subsidy.” Then, the mode! so developed is applied to the U.S. and Canadian exports of flour. The results show that Canada had negative effective rates of subsidy throughout the years 1960-61 to 1969-70 while the U.S. rates remained positive during this entire period. These estimations provide quantification of the disadvantage caused for Canadian flour exports by export subsidies on flour by large competitors. A fin ?étudier explictement les primes ?exporiations ont Aeté une source continuelle de mé-sentente entre les exponateurs compétitifs des diverses marchandises au sein du marché international. Ceci est paniculièremeni vrai en ce qui a trait au marché agricole. Un exemple lypique est le marché mondial des farines. ?on croit que i'une des principals causes de la baisse de la part Canadienne dans le marché mondial des farines sont les primes ?exporiations accordées aux gros compétiteurs. Les études précédenles furenl limitées à?analyse de taux nominal de subventions sur les farines; des estimations quan-titatives sont nécessaires afin ?évaluer ?efficacile des subventions en termes plus précis. Done, it est necessaire de développer un concept approprté afin ?étudier les primes ?exporiations explicitement. La préseme étude tente de développer un modèle ?évaluation de ?efficacité des primes ?exporiations libres de loutes déformations afin ?obtenir “un taux efficace de subvention.” Ce modèle est alors appliqué aux exportalions Américaines el Canadiennes de farine. Les résultats démontrent que le Canada possèdait des “taux efficaces de subventions” négalifs pendant les années 1960-61 à 1969-70 el que les taux Américains demeurerent positifs durant la même période. Ces résultats nous donnent la dimension du désavantage causé aux exportalions Canadiennes de farine par les primes ?exporiations accordees aux gros compétiteurs.     

THE DEMAND FOR CANADIAN SEAWEEDS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO IRISH MOSS*

The acquisition of a new industry has been the major goal of many rural areas, especially in the Maritimes region of Canada. Faced not only with a marginal possibility of increasing their catch but also with the likelihood of a decline in the catch in many species of fish, the emergence of a seaweed industry, notwithstanding its occurrence in specified areas, provides a welcome feature for some fishermen and farmers. This additional or alternative source of income provides a stability hitherto not experienced in the areas. This article assesses the demand for Canadian seaweeds via a demand model and appraises the policy implications emanating from the forecasts of the model. The conclusions suggest that the almost non-existent management at the resource level (season limits in terms of months harvested are in effect) and the concomitant problems linked to a common property resource could give rise to difficulties for continued growth and the attainment of maximum returns which may be averted. La création ?une nouvelle Industrie est ce que recherchent depuis longtemps de nombreuses régions rurales, particulierement dans la region canadienne des Mart-limes. Enlrevoyant qui! leur est fort peu possible ?accroitre leurs prises et qu'il leur faut plutot envisager une diminution des prises dans le cas de nombreuses espèces de poisson, nombre de pécheurs et cultivateurs vient ?un bon oeil ?apparition ?une induslrie des algues marines, méme si ces dernières ne sont récollees que dans des secteurs particuliers. Ce supplément de revenu ou autre source de revenu offre une chance de stabiliser qu'on n'avait jamais connue dans les secteurs en cause. Dans le prèsent article, ?auteur èvalue à?aide ?un modèle la demande ?algues marines du Canada et ètudie ce qu'implique sur le plan des positions à adopter les réponses obtenues du modèle. Ces réponses incitenl à croire que la quasi-absence de gestion au niveau de la ressource (la saison des récoltes est réglemente) et les problémes de ?exploitation ?une ressource commune, pourraient provoquer sur le plan de ?expansion continue et de la realisation de réndements maximum des difficultes qui! serait possible ?éviler.     

AN INTEGRATED ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE CANADIAN LIVESTOCK-FEED SECTOR*

Canadian econometric studies dealing with the livestock-feed sector have tended to concentrate on individual commodities, or on a particular component of the market equilibrium process. In this article an integrated model of the sector is presented which depicts the nature of commodity interactions both at the consumer level and the producer level. The feed sector was conceptualized primarily in terms of derived demand. The model contained a total of 82 equations, of which 64 were related to the livestock subsystem. The estimated model was subsequently used for predicting the impact of changes in selected instrumental variables on the livestock-feed sector.
Les dernières etudes économétriques canadiennes traitant du pâturage se sont concentrées sur les produits séparés on sur un composé particulier répondant au besoin commercial. Cet article présents un modèle intégré du secteur montrant la nature des actions réciproques entrc les produits au niveau du consommateur et du producteur. Le secteur pâturage est expliqué en fonction de la demande. Le modèle contenait 82 équations, 64 desquelles se rapportaient àľélevage; par conséquent le modèle est employé pour prédire ľinfluence dans les pâturages de changements opérés sur les composants choisis.     

THE IMPACT OF SUPERVISED CREDIT PROGRAMMES ON TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN DEVELOPING AGRICULTURE*

Restrictions on input use frequently accompany the granting of institutional credit to farmers in developing agriculture. A general economic framework is suggested to analyze the net social benefits of such a policy. The paper discusses the potential for manipulating the policy variables to foster more rapid adoption of new agricultural technology. An empirical analysis of the impact of a supervised credit programme in Guatemala on farm performance and farmer decision-making is presented.     

A MODEL OF JOB CHOICE FOR THE ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT*

The paper presents a model of choice between alternative available jobs in which each job has an uncertain multi-period income prospect. Imperfectly informed expectations as well as job preferences and attitudes to risk determine the choice. The model is used to locate and discuss some problems of designing government programs which are intended to increase job mobility. The main conclusion is that government interventions may impose costs on the economy which are greater than the benefits because the information needed to assess costs and benefits is not generally available and political pressures may distort the expenditures.     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE*

A simple model is developed relating the debt and asset portfolio of the farm to the production decision, which leads to a small non-linear system of equations. The system is estimated with time-series cross-sectional data from Australian broadacre agriculture using non-linear three-stage least squares. This gives a new method of estimating risk aversion coefficients by using actual behaviour of farmers in a realistic economic environment, rather than games played in artificial situations. Australian farmers are found to be risk averse, and the partial coefficient of risk aversion decreases with wealth and increases with income. The results are consistent with the results of studies by Binswanger in India and elsewhere using a completely different method. This consistency suggests that the partial risk aversion coefficient is a relatively robust measure of attitudes to risk.     

SOCIAL COSTS OF REGULATION OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION TO ANIMAL WELFARE REGULATION OF THE VICTORIAN PIG INDUSTRY*

The effects of state government regulation of primary industry are modelled. An analytical framework is presented for estimating the costs of regulation in terms of changes in economic surplus. The model permits trade between regions of the total market. An illustrative application of the framework is applied to proposed animal welfare regulation of the Victorian pig industry. Some regulations that may provide large gains with regard to the welfare of farm animals involve only small social costs compared to the gross value of production of the industry. Conversely, other regulations that potentially confer only small gains in animal welfare impose large social costs. The distribution of these costs is important. In general, consumers lose, as do some producers. Other producers gain. In some cases, producers in aggregate gain from regulation. Major beneficiaries, such as advocates of animal welfare regulations, are likely to bear little of the cost of regulation.     

THE EFFECT OF CANADIAN BUSINESS CYCLES ON THE ADOPTION OFTECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS IN CANADIAN AGRICULTURE 1926/1967

The inter-relationships between the farm and non-farm sectors of advanced economies have received scant attention of late and in the Canadian context little attention at all. This paper concerns itself with one aspect of this inter-relationship. namely, the timing of adoption of innovations in non-farm-produced agricultural inputs relative to conditions in the non-farm economy. Following a chronological review of the relevant literature, an hypothesis is developed, and the remainder of the paper is devoted to the formal procedure of developing a deterministic and from this a stochastic model to test the hypothesis, concentrating on the particular input, fertilizer. The results of the estimation of the model are as expected, with one notable exception concerning the signs of certain key variables. Much of the remainder of the paper is devoted to discussing, and attempting to resolve, the dilemma that this exception raises. Les relations étroites entre les secteurs agricoles et non-agricoles dans une économie bien développee n'ont reçu que peu ?attention récemment, et la situation canadienne a été encore plus negligée. Cet article traite un aspect de ces relations, à savoir, le réglage de ?adoption ?innovations dans les investissements agricoles secondares en relation aux conditions de ?économie non-agricole. Après une revue chronologique de la litérature rélévante, une hypothèse est développée et pour le restanl du papier ?auteur se concerne avec le procédé forme! de développer un modèle determinisle et de là un modèle stochastique pour mettre son hypothèse à?épreuve. Il se sen ?un investissemenl en particulier – ?engrais. Les résultats de ?évaluation du modèle sonl commes prévus avec une exception notable oü les signes de certains variables clefs sont affectés. ?auteur discute cette exception en détail et essaie de resoudre le dilemme quelle pose.     

未来资源,环境,社会经济与全球变化

在综述国内外全球变化工作的基础上,分析限未来ＣＯ２加倍、全球变暖对农业与森林、陆地自然生态系统,海平面与海岸带、水资源、能源与人类健康的影响,分析表明：全球变化对上述各方面均会有一定的影响,其中有些影响是有利于人类的生存与发展的,而有些影响不利的。     

AN ECONOMIC TOOL FOR EVALUATING DISEASE MANAGEMENT IN THE JARRAH FORESTS OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA*

A pathogenic, soil-borne fungus has been gradually spreading through the jarrah forest of Western Australia for most of this century. On some sites this fungus can cause almost total forest destruction. Infection is incurable and the effects are irreversible. This paper develops a means for evaluating disease control measures and identifying the optimal level of protection. Standard protection measures are warranted for high and moderate impact sites, over a wide range of risks. Increased expenditure on forest protection is warranted for high and moderate impact sites at especially high risk.