How Does Uncertainty Resolution Affect VC Syndication?

We use the external certification due to the FDA 510(k) clearance process in the medical device industry as a natural experiment and analyze the dynamics of the syndicate formation of venture capital (VC) firms under various levels of uncertainty. We test several nonmutually exclusive hypotheses on project selection, second opinion, collusion, and diversification. Our results suggest that FDA 510(k) clearance serves as an outside certification and reduces uncertainty leading to greater amounts of capital flowing into the company from a larger group of investors. Our results also suggest that experienced VC firms are able to identify promising projects early on without the need for external 510(k) certification or second opinion.     

How Does Asymmetric Information Affect Catering Behavior?

This study examines the association between information asymmetry and payout policy, and how asymmetric information affects catering behavior. Using forecast error and forecast dispersion as information asymmetry variables, this study finds that the more information asymmetry the firms face, the less likely they will increase dividends. Meanwhile, the effects of information asymmetry dominate over those of catering incentives for managers to decide dividend policy. Finally, our empirical results demonstrate that the signaling theory holds when dividend yield is high or market underestimates the EPS of firms. In addition, companies use share repurchases as a substitute for dividend increases, and take retained earnings into account when making dividend policies.     

How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous.     

How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?

If actively managed mutual funds suffer from diminishing returns to scale, funds should alter investment behavior as assets under management increase. Although asset growth has little effect on the behavior of the typical fund, we find that large funds and small‐cap funds diversify their portfolios in response to growth. Greater diversification, especially for small‐cap funds, is associated with better performance. Fund family growth is related to the introduction of new funds that hold different stocks from their existing siblings. Funds with many siblings diversify less rapidly as they grow, suggesting that the fund family may influence a fund's portfolio strategy.     

How Does Unobserved Heterogeneity Affect Value Relevance?

Most value relevance (VR) studies consider an accounting item value relevant if the regression coefficient (RC) of that item is statistically significant. Unobservable heterogeneity leads to biased RCs, interpretation of which generates incorrect inferences. To obtain unbiased RCs, the effect of unobservable heterogeneity on RCs should be mitigated. As two dimensions of unobservable heterogeneity are at the firm level and time level, outcomes with the following unobservable heterogeneity concerns are discussed: i) no fixed‐effects (FE); ii) firm FE; iii) time FE; and iv) two‐way (firm and time) FE. By employing a sample of Turkish firms from 2005–2014, we report several findings. First, we find that regressions with firm (time) FE yield large (low) RCs vis‐à‐vis regressions with no FE, and regressions with two‐way FE generate balanced RCs compared to the others. Second, we compare RCs with i and iv, and conclude that the book value of equity becomes more value relevant while net income does not after controlling for unobservable heterogeneity. Last, we arbitrarily divide the entire period into two to reveal how unobserved endogeneity affects the comparison of RCs belonging to different periods. Our outcomes robustly reveal that unobserved endogeneity leads to erroneous RC comparisons.     

When Does Information Asymmetry Affect the Cost of Capital?

This paper examines when information asymmetry among investors affects the cost of capital in excess of standard risk factors. When equity markets are perfectly competitive, information asymmetry has no separate effect on the cost of capital. When markets are imperfect, information asymmetry can have a separate effect on firms’ cost of capital. Consistent with our prediction, we find that information asymmetry has a positive relation with firms’ cost of capital in excess of standard risk factors when markets are imperfect and no relation when markets approximate perfect competition. Overall, our results show that the degree of market competition is an important conditioning variable to consider when examining the relation between information asymmetry and cost of capital.     

How Does Local Economy Affect Commercial Property Performance?

The real estate literature recognizes the real option to invest in capital expenditures (CAPEX) or sell a property but treats these options as independent. We show that these real options are interconnected. We provide empirical evidence that, consistent with the real option framework, CAPEX increases in income growth expectations but declines in their volatility; that CAPEX are partially capitalized into property market values; and that CAPEX significantly reduce the subsequent likelihood of sale. We also present evidence that, controlling for market timing, past property performance influences CAPEX but not disposition choices, consistent with a value-add investment strategy.

     

How Does a Development Moratorium Affect Development Timing Choices and Land Values?

This paper investigates how a development moratorium affects choices of development timing and land values in a framework where both the value of developed property evolves stochastically and the development costs are fully irreversible. We assume that a regulator initially announces that land is not allowed to be developed during a finite period of time in the future. A developer, thus, must decide whether to develop land before the timing ordinance is imposed, or after it expires. The development moratorium reduces the developer’s option value from waiting and, thus, accelerates development. We also use simulation analysis to demonstrate how the other factors that relate to the demand and supply conditions of the real estate market affect this accelerating effect.     

How Does Infrastructure Construction Affect Economic Development along the “Belt and Road”: By Promoting Growth or Improving Distribution?

ABSTRACT

The “Belt and Road Initiative” has involved deepening infrastructure construction along the “Belt and Road”. Using data from countries who have joined the “Belt and Road”, this study examines how infrastructure construction has affected economic development along the route. Findings show that infrastructure construction can promote economic growth and per capita output growth while improving income distribution of residents along the “Belt and Road”. Results also indicate that the effect of infrastructure construction on economic development is heterogeneous; such construction can substantially increase economic growth in developing countries but has no significant effect on economic growth in developed and emerging developing countries. Infrastructure construction can greatly improve residents’ income distribution in developed and developing countries but has no significant effect on residents in emerging developing countries. Collectively, these findings identify foreign direct investment and urbanization as important channels through which infrastructure construction can influence economic development.     

How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?

Previous research indicates that changes in housing wealth affect consumer spending on cars. We find that home equity extraction plays only a small role in this relationship. Consumers rarely use funds from equity extraction to purchase a car directly, even during the mid‐2000s’ housing boom; this finding holds across three nationally representative household surveys. We find in credit bureau data that equity extraction does lead to a statistically significant increase in auto loan originations, consistent with equity extraction easing borrowing constraints in the auto loan market. This channel, though, accounts for only a tiny share of overall car purchases.     

Trade in International Maritime Services: How Much Does Policy Matter?

Maritime transport costs significantly impede internationaltrade. This article examines why these costs are so high insome countries and quantifies the importance of two explanations:restrictive trade policies and private anticompetitive practices.It finds that both matter, but the latter have a greater impact.Trade liberalization and the breakup of private carrier agreementswould lead to an average of one-third lower liner transportprices and to cost savings of up to US$3 billion on goods carriedto the United States alone. The policy implications are clear:there is a need not only for further liberalization of governmentpolicy but also for strengthened international disciplines onrestrictive business practices. The authors propose an approachto developing such disciplines in the current round of servicesnegotiations at the World Trade Organization.     

How Much Does Investor Sentiment Really Matter for Equity Issuance Activity?

We study the extent to which investor sentiment matters for aggregate equity issuance activity. We focus on firms that are susceptible to investor sentiment and for which accurate measures of economic fundamentals are available. While sentiment on its own matters for equity issuance, it matters relatively little once we control for accurately measured fundamentals. Collectively, proxies for sentiment explain roughly 10 percentage points of the time-series variation of equity issuance beyond the roughly 40% explained by fundamentals. We conclude that investor sentiment does not seem to matter very much for aggregate equity issuance activity.     

CoCo Bonds,Conversion Prices and Risk Shifting Incentives. How Does the Conversion Ratio Affect Management's Behaviour?

The aim of this paper is to analyze risk shifting incentives for managers and shareholders of the financial institution issuing a CoCo bond. We assess the role of the conversion price settlement in enhancing both shareholders’ and management's discipline. Three recent contingent reverse convertible deals are analyzed, with the intention of showing how shareholder conversion returns are linked to the conversion ratio. The findings demonstrate that, in the case of an ingoing or ongoing crisis, a poor settlement of the conversion ratio could exacerbate both debt overhang and risk shifting issues. This will end in discouraging bank management from issuing new equity and from investing in low risk assets. We argue that a contingent bond triggered on Basel III capital requirement ratios and having a significantly discounted conversion price reduces risk shifting incentives. Moreover, we illustrate how the unexpected wealth transfers between CoCo bondholders and shareholders tends to zero when the bond face value is higher than the current stock market price and there is a concentration of bond subscribers. Accordingly, regulators should consider and oversee not only the conversion trigger but also all the other features of a contingent capital security, especially the conversion ratio.     

How Does Cross‐Border Activity Affect EU Banking Markets?

Cross‐border activity in the EU is widely viewed as a necessary condition for the implementation of a single banking market and therefore as a positive factor for the enhancement of competition and cost performance in the region. In this paper, we analyse the relevance of this view by investigating whether cross‐border activity really promotes competition and cost efficiency in EU banking markets. We also consider the potential role of a bank's mode of entry by comparing existing domestic banks that foreign banks take over (mergers and acquisitions) with new branches created by foreign banks, often through subsidiaries (greenfield operations). We consider the impact of cross‐border banks on cost efficiency (measured by the stochastic frontier approach), profitability (assessed through return on assets) and competition (measured by the Lerner index). We find that greenfield banks enhance cost efficiency and competition, while mergers and acquisitions hamper competition and cost efficiency. Therefore, our results suggest that EU authorities should promote only greenfield banks rather than all cross‐border entries.     

How Does Being Public Affect Firm Investment? Further Evidence from China

What role does the stock market play in the allocation of capital? Few studies have examined how being public affects firm investment in emerging markets. This study fills this gap by comparing investment behavior in public and private Chinese firms over the period 2004–2010. We find an overall improved capital allocation of public firms relative to private firms in China. By disentangling the financial constraints effect from the agency effect, we show that public firms are less likely to underinvest when there is cash flow insufficiency and more likely to overinvest when there is free cash flow. We conclude that both effects coexist and that whether or not being public improves investment behavior depends on the net effect of loosening financial constraints and worsening agency conflicts. Further examination shows that financial information plays a limited role in these effects, implying that the association between being public and firm investment may not be attributed to information asymmetry but, rather, institutional arrangement in China.     

How Do Market Prices and Cheap Talk Affect Coordination?

In many scenarios such as banking and liquidity crises, inefficiencies often arise because investors face uncertainties about economic fundamentals and the strategies of other investors. How information affects fundamental uncertainty is well studied, but how information affects strategic uncertainty is underexplored. This paper examines how two communication mechanisms, market and cheap talk, affect investment decisions and efficiency in an experimental investment game with both fundamental and strategic uncertainty. I find that the market does not improve coordination because the expectation that coordination failures will occur is self‐fulfilling, while cheap talk improves coordination because the signals of willingness to invest alleviate strategic uncertainty.     

Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?

This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the role of the housing market in the macroeconomy in the US and the euro area. First, it establishes some stylised facts concerning key variables in the housing market on the two sides of the Atlantic, such as real house prices, residential investment and mortgage debt. It then presents evidence from Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) by focusing on the effects of monetary policy, credit supply and housing demand shocks on the housing market and the broader economy. The analysis shows that similarities outweigh differences as far as the housing market is concerned. The empirical evidence suggests a stronger role for housing in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the US. The evidence is less clear-cut for housing demand shocks. Finally, credit supply shocks seem to matter more in the euro area.     

How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels

Credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand. In this study, we develop a test to determine if the household demand channel is present, and we implement the test using both a natural experiment in the United States in the 1980s and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades. Consistent with the importance of the household demand channel, we find that credit supply expansion boosts nontradable sector employment and the price of nontradable goods, with limited effects on tradable sector employment. Such credit expansions amplify the business cycle and lead to more severe recessions.     

How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?

We examine how the change in investor sentiment (IS) over time (the IS trend) affects stock returns. The turnover rates of trading shares, trading value, and transactions, three market measures of trading activity, have been demonstrated to meet the psychometric criteria for measuring the IS trend. The ratio of market price to book value and the short-selling turnover ratio are inappropriate proxies. The empirical results indicate that the influence of the IS trend on returns depends on the direction of the trend (optimistic or pessimistic) and stock characteristics of individual holdings and on arbitrage constraint. The effectiveness of arbitrage, sentiment-driven mispricing, and market intervention are discussed.     

How Does Investor Sentiment Affect Stock Market Crises? Evidence from Panel Data

We test the impact of investor sentiment on a panel of international stock markets. Specifically, we examine the influence of investor sentiment on the probability of stock market crises. We find that investor sentiment increases the probability of occurrence of stock market crises within a one‐year horizon. The impact of investor sentiment on stock markets is more pronounced in countries that are culturally more prone to herd‐like behavior, overreaction and low institutional involvement.