战略性新兴产业与美国经济的崛起 ——19世纪下半叶美国钢铁业发展的历史经验及对我国的启示

19世纪下半叶,美国依靠关税保护、限制外资、促进人才培养及自然资源的合理开发等一些贸易保护及工业促进政策,以国内对工业制成品的大规模需求为基础,大力发展钢铁冶炼等这一时期的战略性新兴产业。在落后于英国的情况下,依靠扶植民族产业的战略方针、独具特色的国家创新体制、技术和工艺的不断进步、高质量资本设备的密集使用、高工资工人的生产率优势以及对自然资源的有效开发等,美国成功地利用第三次技术革命创新浪潮的机会窗口,实现了工业化的崛起。对于我国以内需为战略基点,大力发展当代战略性新兴产业,建立内生增长和创新驱动的经济发展模式来说,美国钢铁工业的成功经验提供了重要的借鉴价值。     

Strategic tariffs, tariff jumping, and heterogeneous firms

The majority of research to date investigating strategic tariffs in the presence of multinationals finds a knife-edge result where, in equilibrium, all foreign firms are either multinationals or exporters. Utilizing a model of heterogeneous firms, we find equilibria in which both pure exporters and multinationals coexist. We utilize this model to study the case of endogenously chosen tariffs. As is standard, Nash equilibrium tariffs are higher than the socially optimal tariffs. Unlike existing models with homogeneous firms, we find that non-cooperative tariffs promote the existence of low-productivity firms relative to the socially optimal tariffs. This highlights a new source of inefficiency from tariff competition not found in models of homogeneous firms. In addition, we find that in many cases the Nash equilibrium tariff when FDI is a potential firm structure is lower than when it is not. As a result, FDI improves welfare by mitigating tariff competition.     

Competing to Outsource in the South

This paper analyzes foreign direct investment (FDI) competition in a three‐country framework: two Northern countries and one Southern country. We have in mind the competition of Airbus and Boeing in a developing country. The host‐country government endogenizes tariffs, while Airbus and Boeing choose domestic output and FDI. Wages and employment in the home countries are negotiated. We find that in the unique equilibrium, both Airbus and Boeing compete to undertake FDI in the developing country. This arises because the host country can play off the multinationals, which in turn stems from three factors: (a) oligopolistic rivalry; (b) quid pro quo FDI; (c) strategic outsourcing—FDI drives down the union wages at home if the host‐country wage is sufficiently low. However, if the host‐country wage is sufficiently high, the union wage increases under FDI. In such cases, FDI competition benefits the multinationals, the labor unions, as well as the host country.     

Domestic R&D,Foreign Direct Investment and Welfare

This paper provides a new rationale to examine the two‐way relationship between domestic research and development (R&D) and foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as their impacts on domestic welfare. Our analysis is based on the strategic interaction in cost‐reducing investment decisions between domestic firms and a foreign firm, which is different from the common factors that are discussed in the literature such as spillovers and technology sourcing. Our results are as follows. We show that domestic R&D investment may either increase or decrease the foreign firm's FDI incentives. Further, depending on the marginal cost of domestic firms, domestic R&D incentives can always increase regardless of the effects of domestic R&D investment on the foreign firm's FDI decision. Finally, we find that domestic welfare improves under domestic cost reduction if the slope of the marginal cost of domestic R&D investment is sufficiently small.     

Capacity Choice and Preemption of a Foreign Market

This paper studies the strategic role of foreign direct investments (FDIs) when specified as a device for a multinational enterprise (MNE) to precommit capacity. This captures the idea of an MNE preempting the host market or, at least, achieving more profitable outcomes by setting the initial conditions of the post-entry competition with local rivals. Here, the MNE chooses FDI even if "exporting costs" (e.g., tariffs) are not considered. Market preemption is an alternative justification for FDI, but not the only one; sometimes the tradeoff between advantages of strategic leadership and cost of establishing offshore facilities, alone, justifies FDI.     

Foreign firm entry in an open economy: the case of Portugal

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the entry process of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Portuguese industrial sectors. Portugal presents an interesting case where firms enter to take advantage of export opportunities. The results suggest that foreign firms possess the ability to overcome existing entry barriers that affect domestic firms. Apparently, foreign firms have different expectations about profitability than domestic firms, possibly due to foreign firms’ export-orientation to the rest of the European Union (EU). They appear to desire industries where other foreign firms have clustered. Above all, it appears that these foreign firms enter industries to exploit Portugal's chief location advantage in Western Europe: low wages. Portugal's FDI experience is relevant to other countries that have opened their economies to greater trade and investment and attracted export-oriented firms.     

FDI溢出、出口导向效应与创新效率——基于我国高技术产业面板数据的实证研究(1999—2007)

本文运用我国高技术产业1999-2007年13个三位码行业数据,从FDI溢出及出口拉动效应两方面度量了FDI对该产业整体创新水平以及内资企业自主创新效率的不同影响机制,认为高技术产业近年来外资的进入及其出口导向的特征客观上促进了该行业整体创新效率的提高,但溢出效应主要局限在外资企业,对内资企业自主创新效率的溢出效应不显著.内资企业对国外先进技术的消化吸收所作的投入对其吸收FDI及其出口正向溢出效应起到了显著的促进作用.     

TARIFF JUMPING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DECISION IN A QUALITY‐DIFFERENTIATED MARKET

Using a product differentiation model, this paper discusses the issue of transnational firms evading tariffs and investing directly in a host country (through foreign direct investment (FDI)). Where product quality is differentiated between foreign and host country firms and assuming a firm's quality requirement is a long‐term strategy and is not affected by a foreign firm's trade decision, we obtain the following findings. First, whether or not a host country firm produces high or low quality products, raising the quality requirement for foreign products will increase the possibility of a foreign firm choosing FDI instead of exporting a product to the host country. Second, raising the quality requirement for domestic products will lower the possibility of foreign firms choosing FDI without regard to the product's quality. Finally, given a competitor in the host country, in FDI, a foreign high‐quality product‐producing firm has an advantage over a low‐quality product‐producing firm. We also find that even when firms' quality decisions are affected by a foreign firm's trade decision, most of the above results will still hold.     

Trade,foreign direct investment or acquisition: Optimal entry modes for multinationals

We examine multinationals' optimal entry modes into foreign markets as a function of market size, FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs. Our results highlight why large countries are more likely to attract acquisition investment, while intermediate sized countries may be served predominantly through trade, even in the presence of high tariffs. Small countries are most likely to experience either FDI or no entry. We also show how these results vary with the competition intensity in the host country.FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs are crucial not only in determining whether to engage in FDI or trade, but they are also shown to influence the acquisition choice as trade and FDI threats influence the acquisition price. Finally, we explore the welfare implications of tariff reductions for both the local firm and the multinational and investigate political motives to impose endogenous tariffs that influence not only the welfare of a local firm, but also the entry mode of the multinational.     

Does FDI Facilitate Domestic Entry? Evidence from the Czech Republic

This paper analyzes the impact of FDI on domestic firm entry and firm size distributions in the Czech Republic during 1994–2000. We find that larger foreign presence stimulates the entry of domestic firms within the same industry, indicating the existence of positive horizontal spillovers from FDI. We also find evidence of significant vertical entry spillovers—FDI in downstream (upstream) industries initiates entry in upstream (downstream) sectors. Our results also show that entry spillovers through vertical linkages are stronger than horizontal spillovers and that while service industries benefit from both horizontal and vertical spillovers, manufacturing industries do not experience significant positive entry spillovers of any kind. We also find that country of origin of FDI matters—horizontal spillovers are driven by FDI from the EU countries. The right skewness of the firm size distributions in industries without FDI further emphasizes an important role of FDI presence for overall industry dynamics.     

Foreign entrants and domestic entrepreneurship: Evidence from Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of foreign entrants and international trade on potential entrants in Vietnam. Based on a discrete entry model, estimates show that foreign direct investment (FDI) stimulates more domestic entrants in the short run, while the aggregate effect of FDI varies across FDI types. Horizontal FDI tends to have no impact on local start‐ups while vertical FDI is found to have a positive impact on the inflow of domestic entry for only the backward linkage and not for the forward linkage. Moreover, industries with more exports accommodate more domestic entrants, whereas imports tend to deter domestic start‐ups.     

To innovate or to transfer?

FDI has been considered by many development economists as an important channel for transfer of technology to developing countries. It is suggested that modern, advanced technologies introduced by multinational firms can diffuse to domestic firms through spillovers. In this paper, we study innovation and technology transfer activities of domestic and foreign firms in Turkish manufacturing industries, and the impact of horizontal, vertical and labor spillovers on these activities. Our analysis shows that foreign firms are more innovative than their domestic counterparts, and transfer technology from abroad (mostly from their parent companies). Horizontal spillovers from foreign firms seem to be insignificant. The effects of foreign firms on technological activities of other firms in vertically related industries are ambiguous. High-tech suppliers tend to have a high rate of innovation when the share of foreign users is high, but the opposite is true for users: high-tech users supplied mainly by foreign firms tend to have a lower rate of innovation. Labor turnover is found to be the main channel of spillovers. Our findings reiterate the importance of tacitness of knowledge, and confirm that technology cannot easily be transferred through passive mechanisms.     

Cross-border mergers and strategic alliances

This paper develops a model with distribution costs to study firm cooperation in forming strategic alliances and mergers, under different types of foreign market entry modes, that is, export or foreign direct investment (FDI). Under both export and FDI, we find that cross-border alliances (mergers) dominate domestic alliances (mergers); and cross-border alliances and mergers are preferred to independence if and only if distribution cost is high. Under export, cross-border alliances are chosen in equilibrium if distribution cost is high. Under FDI and with high distribution cost, cross-border alliances (mergers) are chosen in equilibrium if plant setup cost is low (high).     

中国制造业外资生产率溢出的条件性研究

FDI生产率溢出存在与否的问题实际上是东道国企业有无条件吸收溢出的问题，本研究从行业内溢出和地区行业间溢出两个方面进行溢出条件性考察。通过对1998-2003年中国制造业分地区四位码行业水平上的面板数据分析后发现，生产率溢出更多地从本地区其他行业的外资参与中获得，行业内的溢出相对并不显著，两类溢出由于机理不同，影响条件有一定差异，对于地区行业间溢出，吸收空间是最大的影响因素。另外，吸收能力、内外资合作程度和适度竞争都是溢出发生的重要条件。     

A fire sale without fire: An explanation of labor-intensive FDI in China

China's labor-intensive industries are characterized by low technology and high competition. The massive inflow of FDI in China's labor intensive industries is inconsistent with the conventional wisdom that FDI should be more prevalent in technology-intensive and low competition industries. To explain this puzzle, we offer a “fire sale” hypothesis: facing severe financial constraints, Chinese private firms give up their equity to form joint ventures with foreign firms in order to obtain financing. Using the garment industry as an example, we find that among domestic firms, the financial constraint index is highest for private firms and lowest for state-owned firms. We further estimate a probit model of joint-venture decisions by private firms. Our results suggest that those private firms with greater financial constraints are more likely to seek foreign joint ownership. The effect of financial constraints on joint venture decision is both statistically and economically significant.     

The Effects of Tariffs and Export Subsidies on Entry Barriers and Investment

This paper explains the effects of unilateral tariffs and export subsidies on entry decisions in an imperfectly competitive industry, and suggests that carefully targeted trade policies play a strategic role in shifting the industry structure and the terms of subsequent competition. The model provides a new justification for tariffs which is different from the traditional infant industry argument; the tariff affects foreign firms' reactions as well as those of the domestic firms. [410]     

出口导向贸易政策与发展中国家间FDI竞争——基于寡占竞争模型的理论分析

文章建立了一个两国竞争模型,重点分析了进口关税与出口补贴等战略贸易政策对发展中国家吸引FDI竞争的影响。研究发现:(1)当两国都采取出口补贴的外资激励政策时,工资水平和进口关税对发展中国家间FDI竞争并没有直接影响;(2)对全要素生产率较高的国家来说,当两国的关税水平都较高时,出口补贴政策增加流向本国的FDI,而当两国关税水平大幅下降后,出口补贴政策反而不利于本国FDI竞争。文章的结论对当前我国战略引资和出口退税等政策的调整具有重大的指导意义。     

Market access and technology adoption in the presence of FDI

This paper theoretically investigates whether improved access to the domestic market speeds up new technology adoption by foreign firms. Foreign firms choose between exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI) to serve the domestic market. If two firms compete in the domestic market, multilateral liberalization of FDI or the realization of multilateral free trade may deter or delay technology adoption, while they always promote and accelerate technology adoption if only a single firm serves the domestic market. Technology adoption can be quickest and consumer welfare greatest when the fixed cost of FDI and the trade costs are neither very high nor very low. Preferential liberalization of FDI promotes the technology adoption of the targeted firm but may not benefit consumers because it discourages technology adoption of the non-targeted firm.     

OPTIMUM-WELFARE AND MAXIMUM-REVENUE TARIFFS IN MIXED OLIGOPOLY WITH FOREIGN COMPETITORS

This paper re-examines the important tariff ranking issue under a linear mixed oligopoly model with foreign competitors and asymmetric costs. We demonstrate that under Cournot competition, when the size of domestic private and foreign private firms become more unequally distributed, optimum-welfare tariff will exceed maximum-revenue tariff. We also show that under Stackelberg competition, when the domestic government protects its domestic sector, it will levy higher optimum-welfare tariffs versus maximum-revenue tariffs; however, when it decides to open its doors more for foreign competitors, it will need to levy higher maximum-revenue tariffs versus optimum-welfare tariffs. The above results remain valid whether the domestic public firm acts as a leader or a follower.     

The potential impact of China–US BIT on China’s manufacturing sectors

This article finds that the overall effect of the foreign direct investment (FDI) and thereby the China–US bilateral investment treaties (BIT) on Chinese manufacturing sector is positive, which raises the productivity and profitability of the firms, using various econometric models and other evidence. The manufacturing sector as a whole has already opened up to the world economy and needs to continue this process. The industries in the manufacturing sector do not need to be protected, except for in limited fields related to national security, scarce natural resources and well-defined strategic sectors. Gradual lifting of the protection may be needed in the short-run for a small number of vulnerable sectors. A moderate relaxing of the current restrictions will increase FDI in manufacturing from all countries by 4–8% under different assumptions. This effect will be small when only considering FDI from the USA. Domestic firms need to update their technology, reduce costs and learn management skills from their foreign competitors, while using the national treatment terms in BIT to enter the fields that are not open to domestic firms under current regulations. Domestic firms also need to set up firm-level global strategies and reallocate firms’ resources according to the changing investment environment, taking advantage of profit opportunities outside the domestic markets.