巨灾风险的保险研究与应对策略综述

巨灾风险作为一种极为特殊的风险,是保险研究和精算研究的一个重要组成部分。国际保险界对巨灾风险没有统一定义,各个国家根据本国实际情况在不同历史时期对巨灾风险进行定义和划分。保险服务局(ISO)财产理赔部按照1998年价格将巨灾     

构建保险企业经营效益指标体系初探

经营效益是保险企业经营的中心,如何构建一整套指标体系来全面反映保险企业的经营效益是一个十分重要的课题。文章结合我国保险企业的实际情况,用统计学的方法来构建保险企业经营效益指标体系。     

区域划分经营是我国农业保险发展的必然选择

农业保险区域划分经营是我国农业保险发展的客观要求,是我国农业保险发展历史和现实的必然选择。我国农业保险的发展必须以区域间差异性的保险需求为依据,因地制宜地在各区域实施与当地农业保险发展环境相适应的、具有区域特色的农业保险发展方式。     

中国农业保险运行绩效评价研究

中国农业保险绩效状况,直接关系到农业生产者因遭受自然灾害和意外事故等所带来的经济风险的避免或减少程度,在健全农业保险制度、推进农业现代化的背景下,本文对中国农业保险绩效评价进行了研究.首先根据农业保险绩效的基本内容和维度构成,从投入、产出、效果三大评价维度出发,构建农业保险绩效评价的层次体系;再结合我国农业保险的实际情况,确定了7项二级评价指标和37项三级评价指标的评价指标体系,最后利用多指标合成法计算评价得分,并进行科学合理的农业保险绩效排名.     

我国政策性农业保险实施效果评价

根据在政策性农业保险试点地区进行实地调研所得的数据,对农户对我国政策性农业保险实施效果的评价结果进行了描述性统计分析。调研结果表明:不同地区的农户对农业保险的需求程度不同,因此其对农业保险实施效果的评价结果也不尽相同;总体来讲,农业保险在稳定农作物产量、稳定农户家庭收入、增强农业抵御风险能力等方面确实发挥了一定的作用,但还未具有明显的长期效果,并未得到广泛认可。     

我国保险监管的新模式

面对经济全球化 ,金融保险国际化的发展趋势 ,我国保险监管应该采用开放式、优质发展与区域监管相结合、加强偿付能力监管、增加透明度、建立市场退出机制、建立保险风险预警体系、加强跨境监管、加强网络保险等相结合的新模式。     

浅谈工程保险的现状与发展

工程保险是指对建筑、安装工程项目和与工程有关的机器设备等存在着的风险给予的一种经济保障.工程保险在性质上属于综合保险,既有财产风险的保障,又有责任风险的保障.由于和普通财产保险的风险相比,工程保险的对象一般是规模大、造价高、技术繁杂和期限较长的现代工程,因此工程保险是在普通财产保险的基础上,具体设计保险内容,渐渐发展为成独立的体系.我国的工程保险体系虽已初步建立,但尚不完善,即便如此,其对保障各方利益,仍发挥了重要作用,因此有必要不断完善该体系,并将其运用到工程项目管理之中.     

区域森林保险发展的影响因素及优化策略——以湖南省为例

通过阐述区域森林保险发展的机理,建立模型对湖南省森林保险保费收入与参保比例、林农收入、上年度森林保险赔付率及GDP之间的关系进行分析,并据此提出应明确区域森林保险险种供给的主导方向,提高森林保险的保障水平,进行森林灾害风险区划,增加财政补贴森林保险保费的标准,依据不同的险种提供不同的补贴额等区域森林保险发展的对策建议。     

中国存款保险制度比例与限额赔偿的模型构造

存款保险作为规避银行挤兑风险的一个制度设计已经受到越来越多的国家的重视,中国建立存款保险制度的时机也已经成熟。然而实践表明,设计不好的存款保险制度不仅不能有效的规避银行挤兑风险,而且可能会带来道德风险、逆向选择、委托代理等一系列问题。在存款保险的制度设计中,保险范围、保险对象、保险额度是重要的组成部分,对这三个方面,结合中国银行体系在国民经济中的重要作用,建立一个模型,提出一个整体的计算思路。     

互助保险在我国的发展优势

一、概述 互助保险（mutual insurance）,又可称为相互保险,是对同类性质的风险具有保险需求的人,基于互助自保精神建立保险基金,实行‘共享收益,共摊风险”的经济活动方式。主要有相互保险社、保险合作社和相互保险公司三种形式。其中,相互保险公司是目前发展最为成熟的形式。     

基于非参数核密度法的农作物区域产量保险费率厘定研究

利用湖北省82个县(市、区)1991～2007年县级中稻单产数据,逐县选择相应的ARIMA(p,d,q)模型拟合其中稻历年单产,并计算出单产减产率,然后在此基础上运用非参数核密度估计法算出各县中稻产量保险纯费率,最后考虑到农作物产量损失的空间相依性,根据各县所面临的系统风险状况对纯费率进行调整,得到更为合理的纯费率。     

玉米气象指数保险的理赔指数及保险费率研究——以甘肃黄土高原区为例

文章依据甘肃黄土高原区1981-2012年期间的历年气象数据和玉米实际单产数据,应用直线滑动平均法建立趋势拟合方程,设计出甘肃黄土高原区玉米生产在不同气象灾害下的理赔指数,并根据不同气象灾害的发生频率和与之对应的灾损率厘定出玉米气象指数保险的保险费率。农业气象指数保险有效解决了传统农业保险存在的各种难题,在提高政策性农业保险保障水平的同时其农户购买政策性农业保险的经济负担也在可承受范围之内,有利于提高政策性农业保险的投保率。     

Estimating bivariate yield distributions and crop insurance premiums using nonparametric methods

Modelling crop yield distribution is crucial in crop insurance premium setting. The correlation between different crop yields due to rotations or systemic risks requires estimation of joint yield distribution for multiple crops. In this article, we apply a nonparametric method to estimate bivariate yield distributions using farm-level yield data of wheat and corn in Shandong Province in China. Then, the simulated yields are used to evaluate the expected indemnity of one traditional and one hypothetical crop insurance programme. Our results reveal that the nonparametric bivariate method is very flexible in shaping the yield probability density functions to estimate local idiosyncrasies and correlation between two crops. It is also feasible to simulate the nonparametric yield distributions at a satisfying level of accuracy. The simulation results show that the hypothetical two-crop insurance contract can be more affordable to farmers than traditional individual crop insurance contracts.     

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Paraná (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.      

On the political economy of zoning

Households choose a community in a metropolitan area and collectively set a minimum housing quality and a property tax to finance a local public good. The collective imposition of a lower bound on housing consumption induces an income-stratified equilibrium in a specification where meaningful community differentiation would not arise without zoning. We show computationally that zoning restrictions are likely to be stringent, with a majority facing a binding constraint in communities that permit it. By inducing a stratified equilibrium, zoning causes Tiebout-welfare gains in aggregate but with large welfare transfers. Relative to stratified equilibrium without zoning, the zoning equilibrium is significantly more efficient as it reduces housing-market distortions.     

The Demand for Index‐Based Flood Insurance in a High‐Income Country

Increased flooding is expected to be one of the greatest threats caused by climate change. Flood insurance helps to cope with the risk of flooding, but take‐up rates are relatively low in many places. Mainly in developing countries, index‐based flood insurance – where the insurer's payout is based on pre‐agreed weather indices instead of actual loss – has been marketed recently. In this paper, we investigate whether the introduction of index‐based flood insurance with relatively low premiums is likely to attract new customers in a high‐income country, namely Germany. We use data from a discrete choice experiment combined with damage data for a major flood in 2013. We find index‐based flood insurance to attract similar customers as traditional damage‐based, while the latter is preferred on average. Our results suggest that not many new customers would enter the market, once index‐based flood insurance were available.     

Debt Crises and Risk‐Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns

Using a variance decomposition of shocks to gross domestic product (GDP), we quantify the role of international factor income, international transfers, and saving in achieving risk‐sharing during the recent European crisis. We focus on the subperiods 1990–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010 and consider separately the European countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis in 2010. We decompose risk‐sharing from saving into contributions from government and private saving, and show that fiscal austerity programs played an important role in hindering risk‐sharing during the sovereign debt crisis.     

土地利用分区与主体功能区协调的实证研究——以环鄱阳湖区为例

协调土地利用分区与主体功能区对于指导区域空间有序开发、实现区域土地利用的差异化管理具有重要的理论和现实意义。首先从分区目标、分区内容、分区指标和分区方法等4方面分析了主体功能区和土地利用分区的关系,指出两者的协调应在战略层面实施;然后以环鄱阳湖区为例进行实证研究:根据研究区主体功能分区图、土地利用现状图、土地适宜性评价结果图等,通过制定基于主体功能区的土地利用分区属性赋值规则,在ArcGIS9.2中进行叠置分析和空间聚类分析,得到环鄱阳湖区土地利用分区图,将环鄱阳湖区划为农业用地区、生态林用地区、城镇及工业用地区和湿地保护区,并提出了相应的土地用途管制措施。结果表明,将主体功能区成果应用于土地利用分区,有利于在用地上落实分区成果、实现地域功能管制。