Tax Policy and Human Capital Formation with Public Investment in Education

This paper studies the effects of distortionary taxes and public investment in an endogenous growth OLG model with knowledge transmission. Fiscal policy affects growth in two respects: first, work time reacts to variations of prospective tax rates and modifies knowledge formation; second, public spending enhances labour efficiency but also stimulates physical capital through increased savings. It is shown that Ramsey-optimal policies reduce savings due to high tax rates on young generations, and are not necessarily growth-improving with respect to a pure private system. Non-Ramsey policies that shift the burden on adults are always growth-improving due to crowding-in effects: the welfare of all generations is unambiguously higher with respect to a private system, and there generally exists a continuum of non-optimal tax rates under which long-run growth and welfare are higher than with the Ramsey-optimal policy.     

Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters

This paper shows that—in contrast to the received wisdom—uncertainty about the parameters in a dynamic macroeconomic model may lead to more aggressive monetary policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it may be optimal for the central bank to respond to shocks more aggressively in order to reduce uncertainty about the future development of inflation. Uncertainty about other parameters, on the other hand, dampens the policy response.
JEL classification : E 43; E 52     

税收政策、融资现金流与企业投资选择

长期经济增长依赖于企业生产和投资的活力,在中国财税政策改革中,目前财税政策面临的主要挑战是激发企业进行生产性投资的积极性。该文基于地区间税收竞争角度,同时通过一个纳入筹资现金流的回归模型,探讨不同类型税收负担等因素对企业投资选择的影响。研究发现:地方政府税收竞争对企业投资选择具有显著影响,且所得税税负对企业投资选择的影响大于营业税等其他税负对企业投资的影响;营业税等间接税负对小企业投资的影响更大,所得税税负对大企业投资的影响更大;企业筹资现金流对企业生产性投资的影响显著为负,说明企业从资本市场(含银行)筹集的资金目前可能主要流向房地产或虚拟经济部门。     

税收刺激消费和投资的政策选择

税收刺激居民消费要从缓解其预期消费压力入手, 将住房购建费用、医疗费用和教育费用列入个人所得税的费用扣除范围, 并通过税收配合降低预期消费重心的价格, 以解决人们的后顾之忧, 再就是以税收调节高收入者的收入水平, 限制私人财富积聚。税收刺激企业投资主要应建立具有刺激投资机制的税制模式, 将增值税向消费型转型是当前最主要的选择, 同时,用调整投资方向调节税和实施投资性减免税来加以配合。另外, 税收刺激消费和投资效果的实现, 有赖于加强税收征管, 规范税收分配秩序     

基于有效创新供给视角改进企业研发投入的税收激励政策研究

目前实施的研发投入税前加计扣除政策存在加计扣除项目难以界定等影响其实施效果的固有短板。文章认为基于创新产品销售收入的激励政策能够有效激励企业为社会提供有效的创新供给。第一,基于企业创新产品收入的税收激励政策能够充分发挥市场对企业创新活动的评价功能,有利于激励企业从事符合社会需求的创新活动,增加有效的创新供给;第二,基于创新产品收入的税收激励政策执行过程中需要的信息单一,容易实现政策弹性,能够降低政策执行成本,改善激励效果;第三,基于企业创新活动产出的税收激励政策有利于激励中小企业和服务业的创新活动。因此,对创新产品收入减税带动企业增加研发投入,能够提高全社会的有效创新供给,从供给侧改善企业的创新效率。     

从国际减税潮流看中国对FDI的税收应对策略

近年来，以美国为代表的西方发达国家掀起了新一轮的税收减免大潮。国际税收的变动对中国吸引外商直接投资(FDI)产生了深刺的影响，与外商直接投资相关的税收政策，其有效性和合理性在中国入世后的新形势下，都有了新的变化，中国有必要在中短期内进行相应的调节，以进一步吸引外商直接投资和维护国家利益。     

Probabilistic Voting and Accountability in Elections with Uncertain Policy Constraints

We consider accountability in repeated elections with two long‐lived parties that have distinct policy preferences and different levels of valence. In each period the government faces a privately observed feasibility constraint and selects a publicly observed policy vector. While pure strategy equilibria do not exhibit tight control on government policy making, complete control is possible in mixed strategies. In optimal equilibria voters use reelection functions which depend on policy in a manner that causes the governing party to internalize voter preferences. In these optimal equilibria the voters use different reelection functions for different parties.     

金融化有助于企业研发投入吗

基于我国“脱实向虚”的经济现状,以我国深圳证券交易所中小企业板上市的高新技术企业为样本,研究企业金融化对研发投入的影响。结果发现：高新技术中小企业金融化程度越高,研发投入越多;相比于国有产权、金融发展水平较高地区,民营产权、金融发展水平较低地区的高新技术中小企业金融化更加有助于其研发投入;金融化对高新技术中小企业研究阶段支出有促进作用,而对开发阶段支出有挤占效应。     

Corporate Investment and Tax Disincentive: Evidence from China

This study investigates how taxes influence corporate investment behavior. Based on a census of Chinese industrial enterprises, we utilize a tax-adjusted q model to examine the effects of taxes on corporate investment in fixed assets in China. Results show that the effective tax rate has a relatively small but significantly negative impact on Chinese firms’ investment in fixed assets. We extend the tax-adjusted q model to control for the lagged investment effect and peer effect of investment. Models with these effects do better at explaining the impact of taxes on firms’ investment. The lagged investment models present smaller but significant tax disincentive. Firms compete for investment with other firms both in the same region and in the same industry through peer effect. In addition, the tax disincentive differs among state owned enterprises, private enterprises, and other enterprises in China.     

论国民待遇原则与中国的涉外税收优惠政策

一、理论上而言,国民待遇原则并不排斥涉外税收优惠政策,但在具体的实践中二易产生矛盾 在世界贸易组织的游戏规则中,“国民待遇”与“最惠国待遇”一起构成WTO非歧视原则的两项基本内容。其中,“最惠国待遇”用于调整缔约国之间的贸易关系,即一国在贸易服务、关税等方面给予另一国享受现时或将来给予任何第三国的同样的一切优惠待遇。“国民待遇”则适用于两国间的双边关系,即一国给本国公民、企业享有的待遇,也须同样给予对方国家的公民、     

Pollution Abatement Investment When Environmental Regulation Is Uncertain

In a dynamic model of a risk-neutral competitive firm that can lower its pollution emissions per unit of output by building up abatement capital stock, we examine the effect of a higher pollution tax rate on abatement investment both under full certainty and when the timing or the size of the tax increase is uncertain. We show that a higher pollution tax encourages abatement investment if it does not exceed a certain threshold rate. However, akin to the Diamond-Mirrlees tax anomaly, it is possible that a higher pollution tax rate results in more pollution. The magnitude uncertainty discourages abatement investment, but at the time of the actual tax increase the abatement investment path may shift either upward or downward. On the other hand, when the timing is uncertain, the abatement investment path always jumps upward, thus suggesting that the effect of magnitude uncertainty on the optimal investment path may be more pronounced than that of timing uncertainty. Further, we show that the ad hoc practice of raising the discount rate to account for the uncertainty leads to underinvestment in abatement capital. We show how the size of this underinvestment bias varies with the future tax increase. Finally, we show that a credible threat to accelerate the tax increase can induce more abatement investment.     

Regulatory Policy Design in an Uncertain World

The paper examines principal–agent relationships in uncertain environments where beliefs of the contracting parties (the regulator and the firm) are represented by sets of probabilities. In addition to fully characterizing the first‐best and the second‐best solutions, we examine optimality of zero‐risk, fixed‐payment schemes and the relationship between the first‐best and the second‐best solutions. In the second‐best world, where the regulator can only contract on the quality of the good, a zero‐risk standard is optimal when the firm has beliefs that are so ambiguous that the firm’s marginal rate of transformation belongs to the set of the firm’s relative probabilities.     

社会保障税、投资动机与海外投资

在中国国外投资流入量增速放缓的背景下,如何应对劳动力成本的快速增长造成的东道国优势下降是亟待研究的问题.本文使用134个国家2008—2018年11年的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,实证考察了企业社会保障税对海外直接投资的影响.研究结果表明,企业社会保障税率对外国直接投资产生负向影响;企业社会保障税对外国直接投资的负向影响受投资动机的调节作用影响,在生产要素获取动机、非自然资源获取动机与非技术获取动机国家样本中更为显著;企业社会保障税对外国直接投资的负向影响存在经济体和地域差异,在G20国家、亚洲、美洲及非洲国家样本中更为显著.基于实证研究结果,本文提出了基于企业社会保障税率的促进中国海外投资流入的相关政策建议.     

促进经济循环发展的税收效应与对策选择

发展循环经济、建设资源节约型社会是我国新时期实现经济与社会可持续发展的战略选择.税收是促进循环经济发展的重要经济手段.本文通过循环经济下税收政策效应的理论分析,系统阐述了我国现行税收政策对循环经济发展的正负效应问题,提出了促进我国循环经济发展的税收对策.     

促进西部大开发的税收政策研究

西部大开发,税收怎么办？这是当前经济生活中的热点之一。本文分析了税收优惠政策在西部开发中配置资源的作用,阐明了按照经济规律办事,制定科学、合理税收政策应遵循的原则,提出了通过多元化的税收优惠措施,促进西部开发的税制改革取向。     

国际投资的商品税分析

在开放的世界经济中，资本的跨国流动日益活跃，商品税作为现代三大税类之一，必然会对国际投资产生相应的影响，本从商品税的税制结构入手，简要地探讨商品税制各因素对国际投资的产业和区域格局的不同影响。在此基础上，运用理论分析和数学推导方法，从税负利润，税负转嫁，增值种类型及税收优惠几个方面来作国际投资的效应分析，研究产生这些影响的深层次原因，最后结合我国现行商品税制作简要的评述。     

风险投资与税收政策浅析

一、我国风险投资事业存在的问题 我国的风险投资事业是在改革开放之后才发展起来的.1985年,中央在关于科技体制改革的决定中明确指出:"对于变化迅速、风险较大的高科技工业可以设立创业投资给予支持".     

对外直接投资促进企业创新了吗——基于逆向投资与顺向投资的比较研究

越来越多的中国企业通过对外直接投资走向海外,但对外直接投资能成为推动企业创新的跳板吗?逆向投资与顺向投资对企业创新的影响又是否存在差异?考虑到逆向投资、顺向投资对企业创新影响上的时间特征,文章探讨了逆向投资、顺向投资对企业创新的动态影响机制,并基于高技术企业样本和境外投资数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:逆向投资和顺向投资均能促进企业创新,但在时间特征上具有较大差异;逆向投资对企业创新的影响存在时滞效应,随着投资企业对外来者劣势的克服以及吸收能力的提升,逆向投资才会显著促进企业创新;顺向投资可以在短期内快速推动企业创新,但这种促进效应并不能持续,随着产品本土化改造完成,顺向投资对企业创新的影响也将减弱。     

多边贷款是否促进了公共投资

自中国恢复世行成员国合法席位以来,多边贷款一直是我国公共投资的重要来源,它占公共投资的比例最高达到27%,平均8.6%,累计金额已达数百亿美元.这些贷款是促进了中国的公共投资水平,还是提高了政府消费,又或者降低了税收,这方面的评价研究很少.本文在宏观经济学的相关理论和模型基础上建立起一套Cowles Commission结构方程组,分别利用1978～2001年的国家和省级两层数据,对上述问题进行了评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,多边贷款并没有促进公共投资的增长,反而降低了税收,提高了政府消费水平.这种影响不同地区是有差异的.总的来看,这种传统意义上的消极影响没有波及私人投资和经济增长.