Tax Policy and Human Capital Formation with Public Investment in Education

This paper studies the effects of distortionary taxes and public investment in an endogenous growth OLG model with knowledge transmission. Fiscal policy affects growth in two respects: first, work time reacts to variations of prospective tax rates and modifies knowledge formation; second, public spending enhances labour efficiency but also stimulates physical capital through increased savings. It is shown that Ramsey-optimal policies reduce savings due to high tax rates on young generations, and are not necessarily growth-improving with respect to a pure private system. Non-Ramsey policies that shift the burden on adults are always growth-improving due to crowding-in effects: the welfare of all generations is unambiguously higher with respect to a private system, and there generally exists a continuum of non-optimal tax rates under which long-run growth and welfare are higher than with the Ramsey-optimal policy.     

Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters

This paper shows that—in contrast to the received wisdom—uncertainty about the parameters in a dynamic macroeconomic model may lead to more aggressive monetary policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it may be optimal for the central bank to respond to shocks more aggressively in order to reduce uncertainty about the future development of inflation. Uncertainty about other parameters, on the other hand, dampens the policy response.
JEL classification : E 43; E 52     

税收刺激消费和投资的政策选择

税收刺激居民消费要从缓解其预期消费压力入手, 将住房购建费用、医疗费用和教育费用列入个人所得税的费用扣除范围, 并通过税收配合降低预期消费重心的价格, 以解决人们的后顾之忧, 再就是以税收调节高收入者的收入水平, 限制私人财富积聚。税收刺激企业投资主要应建立具有刺激投资机制的税制模式, 将增值税向消费型转型是当前最主要的选择, 同时,用调整投资方向调节税和实施投资性减免税来加以配合。另外, 税收刺激消费和投资效果的实现, 有赖于加强税收征管, 规范税收分配秩序     

从国际减税潮流看中国对FDI的税收应对策略

近年来，以美国为代表的西方发达国家掀起了新一轮的税收减免大潮。国际税收的变动对中国吸引外商直接投资(FDI)产生了深刺的影响，与外商直接投资相关的税收政策，其有效性和合理性在中国入世后的新形势下，都有了新的变化，中国有必要在中短期内进行相应的调节，以进一步吸引外商直接投资和维护国家利益。     

Probabilistic Voting and Accountability in Elections with Uncertain Policy Constraints

We consider accountability in repeated elections with two long‐lived parties that have distinct policy preferences and different levels of valence. In each period the government faces a privately observed feasibility constraint and selects a publicly observed policy vector. While pure strategy equilibria do not exhibit tight control on government policy making, complete control is possible in mixed strategies. In optimal equilibria voters use reelection functions which depend on policy in a manner that causes the governing party to internalize voter preferences. In these optimal equilibria the voters use different reelection functions for different parties.     

Pollution Abatement Investment When Environmental Regulation Is Uncertain

In a dynamic model of a risk-neutral competitive firm that can lower its pollution emissions per unit of output by building up abatement capital stock, we examine the effect of a higher pollution tax rate on abatement investment both under full certainty and when the timing or the size of the tax increase is uncertain. We show that a higher pollution tax encourages abatement investment if it does not exceed a certain threshold rate. However, akin to the Diamond-Mirrlees tax anomaly, it is possible that a higher pollution tax rate results in more pollution. The magnitude uncertainty discourages abatement investment, but at the time of the actual tax increase the abatement investment path may shift either upward or downward. On the other hand, when the timing is uncertain, the abatement investment path always jumps upward, thus suggesting that the effect of magnitude uncertainty on the optimal investment path may be more pronounced than that of timing uncertainty. Further, we show that the ad hoc practice of raising the discount rate to account for the uncertainty leads to underinvestment in abatement capital. We show how the size of this underinvestment bias varies with the future tax increase. Finally, we show that a credible threat to accelerate the tax increase can induce more abatement investment.     

Regulatory Policy Design in an Uncertain World

The paper examines principal–agent relationships in uncertain environments where beliefs of the contracting parties (the regulator and the firm) are represented by sets of probabilities. In addition to fully characterizing the first‐best and the second‐best solutions, we examine optimality of zero‐risk, fixed‐payment schemes and the relationship between the first‐best and the second‐best solutions. In the second‐best world, where the regulator can only contract on the quality of the good, a zero‐risk standard is optimal when the firm has beliefs that are so ambiguous that the firm’s marginal rate of transformation belongs to the set of the firm’s relative probabilities.     

论国民待遇原则与中国的涉外税收优惠政策

一、理论上而言,国民待遇原则并不排斥涉外税收优惠政策,但在具体的实践中二易产生矛盾 在世界贸易组织的游戏规则中,“国民待遇”与“最惠国待遇”一起构成WTO非歧视原则的两项基本内容。其中,“最惠国待遇”用于调整缔约国之间的贸易关系,即一国在贸易服务、关税等方面给予另一国享受现时或将来给予任何第三国的同样的一切优惠待遇。“国民待遇”则适用于两国间的双边关系,即一国给本国公民、企业享有的待遇,也须同样给予对方国家的公民、     

国际投资的商品税分析

在开放的世界经济中,资本的跨国流动日益活跃,商品税作为现代三大税类之一,必然会对国际投资产生相应的影响,本从商品税的税制结构入手,简要地探讨商品税制各因素对国际投资的产业和区域格局的不同影响。在此基础上,运用理论分析和数学推导方法,从税负利润,税负转嫁,增值种类型及税收优惠几个方面来作国际投资的效应分析,研究产生这些影响的深层次原因,最后结合我国现行商品税制作简要的评述。     

风险投资与税收政策浅析

一、我国风险投资事业存在的问题 我国的风险投资事业是在改革开放之后才发展起来的.1985年,中央在关于科技体制改革的决定中明确指出:"对于变化迅速、风险较大的高科技工业可以设立创业投资给予支持".     

多边贷款是否促进了公共投资

自中国恢复世行成员国合法席位以来,多边贷款一直是我国公共投资的重要来源,它占公共投资的比例最高达到27%,平均8.6%,累计金额已达数百亿美元.这些贷款是促进了中国的公共投资水平,还是提高了政府消费,又或者降低了税收,这方面的评价研究很少.本文在宏观经济学的相关理论和模型基础上建立起一套Cowles Commission结构方程组,分别利用1978～2001年的国家和省级两层数据,对上述问题进行了评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,多边贷款并没有促进公共投资的增长,反而降低了税收,提高了政府消费水平.这种影响不同地区是有差异的.总的来看,这种传统意义上的消极影响没有波及私人投资和经济增长.     

促进经济循环发展的税收效应与对策选择

发展循环经济、建设资源节约型社会是我国新时期实现经济与社会可持续发展的战略选择.税收是促进循环经济发展的重要经济手段.本文通过循环经济下税收政策效应的理论分析,系统阐述了我国现行税收政策对循环经济发展的正负效应问题,提出了促进我国循环经济发展的税收对策.     

对外直接投资促进企业创新了吗——基于逆向投资与顺向投资的比较研究

越来越多的中国企业通过对外直接投资走向海外,但对外直接投资能成为推动企业创新的跳板吗?逆向投资与顺向投资对企业创新的影响又是否存在差异?考虑到逆向投资、顺向投资对企业创新影响上的时间特征,文章探讨了逆向投资、顺向投资对企业创新的动态影响机制,并基于高技术企业样本和境外投资数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:逆向投资和顺向投资均能促进企业创新,但在时间特征上具有较大差异;逆向投资对企业创新的影响存在时滞效应,随着投资企业对外来者劣势的克服以及吸收能力的提升,逆向投资才会显著促进企业创新;顺向投资可以在短期内快速推动企业创新,但这种促进效应并不能持续,随着产品本土化改造完成,顺向投资对企业创新的影响也将减弱。     

投资环境政策改革:杭州案例分析

本文根据世界银行关于投资环境的分析方法,以杭州市为案例分析了杭州市三大方面的投资环境政策改革以及推动投资环境政策改革的八项机制.     

Tax Policy and Tax Administration in Russia: The Case of the Banking Sector

The 'informal' sector of an economy is generally seen as a private sphere, where agents seek to escape the reach of the state and, in particular, the tax organs. However, given the weakness of the Russian state and the enormous scale of informal economic activity, the fiscal authorities try to cope, at least in part, by adopting informal strategies of their own. This paper aims to deepen our understanding of how this informal fiscal system actually works. While the analysis here focuses on the banking system, its implications for tax and accounting reform extend far beyond the banking sector.     

Tax Enforcement Policy and the Provision of Public Goods with the Presence of Tax Havens

A tax competition model is presented to investigate the effects of tax havens on the public good provision. We show that when countries facing a rise in tax havens change their tax enforcement strategies in response, the existence of tax havens may result in a higher level of equilibrium public good provision as compared to the case with no tax havens. Accordingly, tax havens could be welfare enhancing for non‐haven countries. This result offers a possible explanation for the recent empirical evidence that the corporate tax revenues in high‐tax countries have actually increased with the growth in the flow of foreign direct investment to tax havens.     

The Signaling Effect of Tax Policy

The paper focuses on the signaling value of a tax when agents are less informed than the government on the effect of their consumption. The policy making process is analyzed as a game in which the government wants to influence consumers' behaviors through tax policy, consumers being rational and Bayesian. The marginal cost of public funds induces the government to provide biased information to pursue budgetary objectives. We analyze the tax distortion that is required for credibility.     

非均衡税收政策的比较分析

东道国中央政府给予个别地区特殊的税收优惠政策(即建立经济特区),在某种程度上降低了跨国公司要求地方政府补贴的议价能力,从而增加了东道国的税收收入。但是,这种非均衡税收政策不利于跨国公司与投资地区达到最有效率的匹配,则跨国公司给本国带来的外部效应就会降低。东道国中央政府应通过税率的设定,使不同资源禀赋的地区和不同类型的跨国公司相匹配,即使跨国公司和所投资地区达到最优配置。