关联性视阈下我国金融行业间系统性风险传染效应研究

关联性是研究系统性风险传染效应的一个重要途径。借鉴Billio et al.(2012)的思想,从关联性及其方向性变化研究入手,分别使用主成分分析、线性因果关系检验、非线性因果关系检验、网络分析等方法考察银行业、保险业与证券业间系统性风险的时变传染效应。结果表明,金融危机爆发后金融行业间的关联性显著上升,一旦爆发金融危机,其机构间的传染性要强于以往。平稳时期,各行业内部机构之间的相互传染影响占主流,而在金融危机期间,跨行业机构间的相互传染影响得到了显著的提升,银行业对其他行业造成的传染影响显著增强,证券行业在金融危机期间则更多地受到了传染影响。     

品牌大讲堂——保险品牌“三元论”

提及银行业，人们自然联想到银行里彬彬有礼、训练有素的职员；提及证券业，代表形象是交易大厅里专业和高效的服务人员，而提及同属金融行业的保险业，人们心中闪现的却是另外一种印象：巧舌如簧、标准模糊、前后不一……是什么让保险业的行业形象与银行业、证券业有如此大的反差呢？是哪些因素影响并决定着保险品牌？本期品牌大讲堂中，深圳品牌学会执行主席张迎宾先生阐述了他的“三元论”观点。[编者按]     

金融控股集团的风险与有效监管

金融控股集团亦称金融控股公司。其定义是：在同一控制权下，完全或主要在银行业、证券业、保险业中至少两个不同的金融行业提供服务的金融集团。金融控股集团主要通过控股子公司实现多样化经营，追求最大化利益。具有如下特点：     

我国保险资产管理的现状与风险分析

随着我国保险业市场规模持续快速健康发展，作为保险公司两个最重要盈利来源之一的保险资产管理水平的提高成为保险业增强盈利能力和偿付能力，促进金融市场协调发展的重要手段与紧迫任务。本文试图通过对行业发展与保险资产管理现状与趋势的分析，结合行业内外部环境的研究，分析保险资产管理过程中所面临的风险，以期强化保险资产管理中的风险控制，加强和促进保险行业资产管理水平，进而为保险行业持续快速发展与结构调整奠定坚实基础。     

金融科技背景下互联网金融产品风险管理研究

万物互联时代下，“互联网+金融”、大数据、云计算等金融科技发展日趋完善，已较为成熟地应用于银行业、保险业、证券业、投资理财业等金融领域当中。金融科技在互联网金融行业的落地实施，提高了金融业务的可操作性与执行效率，人们能够利用手机网上银行、网上营业厅等智能终端设备在云端一键快速办理金融业务。然而云服务使操作更加高效便捷的同时仍存在一定的安全风险隐患。选取蚂蚁金服、腾讯金融、京东金融等极具代表性的互联网金融公司进行对比研究，旨在从金融风险管理层面促进金融风险对冲。     

证券投资风险计量方法研究

本文首先对现有证券投资风险基本概念和计量方法进行了分析总结；其次对证券投资风险本质属性进行了深入探讨，并提出了新的证券投资风险定义；基于此定义从定量方面分三个层次设计了新的证券投资风险计量指标，这些指标对风险的描述更全面科学，比现有风险计量指标具有更大的优越性。     

用新制度经济学方法论分析我国信托市场的发展

在市场经济发达的国家中,信托业与银行业、保险业、证券业同属于四大金融行业,对经济发展发挥了重要作用。而我国信托业自1979年恢复以来,一直没能走上规范发展道路,存在这样或那样的问题。加之信托业自身具有很大的灵活性,如果不加以规范和优化治理,将给我国金融市场的发展带来非常不利的影响。因此,探讨信托业的优化治理问题具有深远的现实意义。本文用经济学方法分析了信托业发展的内部矛盾,并从理论角度提出解决方案。     

流动性冲击与银行资产配置的实证研究

文章通过对我国银行业数据的实证分析，发现银行的资产配置行为与流动性冲击有显著的相关关系。市场流动性和融资流动性的提高能够改善银行的流动性，同时也激励了银行持有更多的风险资产。流动性宽松时期，不断提升的市场流动性和融资流动性，使银行风险资产过度膨胀，为危机埋下隐患。     

旅游业价值链风险溢出与投资转移——来自中国股票市场的经验数据

文章以37家旅游业上市公司2008—2012年A股股票交易市场作为研究样本,从股票市场和公司两个层面研究了旅游业价值风险、旅游业资产流动性、交易量等对投资转移行为的影响。结果表明,无论是在市场层面还是在公司层面上,旅游业价值链风险均会对投资转移产生双向且显著的影响,而交易量对投资转移行为影响均不显著。此外就旅游业本身而言,股票市场中该产业价值链上资产的流动性对投资转移行为影响显著,而从公司财务季报数据的检验中却未得出同样结论。这些结论有助于更深层次了解旅游业价值链风险与投资行为活动间的关系。     

投资模型选择问题研究

本文研究五类代表性的投资组合模型：方差,绝对偏差,LPM模型,极大极小模型,以及最大绝对偏差模型,讨论不同的风险度量模型是否真的会造成资产配置的效果不同。区别于传统的从风险与收益的角度进行比较,我们研究5个风险模型得到的最优策略结构,通过权重和重叠的资产数目来探讨不同模型间的相似程度。我们的实证结果发现,不同的风险度量模型会对投资组合的构成造成非常显著的影响。这些结果对投资者或者基金经理进行投资实践具有非常重要的意义,因为传统的看法普遍认为模型的选择取决于投资者对风险的态度而不是从模型本身的理论或者实践价值来选择模型。     

Does diversification promote systemic risk?

We measure systemic risk when faced with simulated shocks through the systemic model of banking originated losses. The formation mechanism of systemic risk is explored from the perspective of investment diversification and asset similarity. The results indicate that contagion risks formed by the over similarity of investment assets are the main cause of systemic risk. The similarity generally promotes contagion risks, however, it shows a double-faced effect for state-owned commercial banks that disperse shocks from counterparties through their too-big-to-fail advantages. The similarity is determined by diversification, which initially promotes similarity and disperses it after a threshold. The diversification acts on the contagion process of systemic risk by the mediation of the similarity. Therefore, diversification generally has a nonlinear impact on systemic risk. The results provide regulatory implications for the systemic stability of the banking system.     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

The impact of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act on the financial services industry

This paper examines the impact of Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act across three main sectors of the financial services industry: commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms, taking account of the wealth effect associated with the announcement. We find that the law has a differential impact across the financial services industry. All three industries have gained due to this law with commercial banks benefiting most, followed by the insurance industry. Further, the results show that larger firms benefited more in both the banking and insurance industries and exposure to systematic risk was reduced for all sectors of the financial services industry after this regulation passed.     

Contagion effect of systemic risk among industry sectors in China’s stock market

This paper constructs a tail event driven network to investigate the interdependence of tail risks among industries in the Chinese stock market from 2014 to 2019, and identifies systemically important industries that have made significant contributions to risk contagion by systemic risk decomposition technique. The empirical results suggest strong linkages among industry sectors. The risk profiles of certain industries under close supply–demand relationships are positively correlated, whereas the financial industry, particularly banking, proves to be the principal risk diversifier in the network, with the household appliance, food and drink industries performing likewise an important role in risk diversification. Based on the TENQR model, further study on additional information provided by the industrial chain structure demonstrates that the upstream industry dominates the spread of risks under extreme market conditions. Our findings are of constructive significance to the anticipative introduction of corresponding policies by regulatory authorities, and are also instructive to the investors’ allocation of assets.     

Contagion risk in the Czech financial system: A network analysis and simulation approach

This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks, enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel, over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that the liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.     

我国金融控股银行与非金融控股银行经营绩效比较研究

在受金融自由化改革和金融创新的推动下,混业经营在金融一体化下成为一种趋势。我国商业银行通过组建金融控股公司,已广泛开展保险、信托、证券、基金等业务间合作。本文以我国主要商业银行2005年至2007年的业绩表现为研究对象,对其进行了研究,结果表明:我国金融控股公司背景银行的经营绩效好于非金融控股公司背景银行,金控银行的手续费及佣金收入对绩效有更高的贡献率,我国应鼓励商业银行向金融控股公司转型,实现金控模式的规范发展。     

金融资产配置、金融杠杆与现金流风险

金融资产会计安排是企业执行金融工具准则的重要环节,具有显著的经济后果。基于实体企业金融化现象,研究金融资产配置与现金流风险关系,分析金融杠杆的调节功能,探讨非效率资本配置的传导作用,研究发现：金融资产配置与现金流风险之间存在U型关系;金融杠杆能够调节金融资产配置与现金流风险的关系,使关系曲线拐点右移与扁平化。区分金融资产配置类型后发现：交易类金融资产与现金流风险呈U型关系;委托贷款等新兴金融资产负向影响现金流风险;投资性房地产和长期金融股权投资未显著影响现金流风险。考虑企业生命周期后发现,成长期与衰退期企业金融资产配置与现金流风险呈U型关系,成熟期企业金融资产配置负向影响现金流风险;按照产权性质分组检验发现,金融资产配置与现金流风险的关系以及金融杠杆的调节效应在非国有企业中更显著;机制检验发现,非效率资本配置在金融资产配置影响现金流风险的过程中发挥中介作用。     

浅谈我国金融风险成因分析及会计防范措施

银行经营活动的运作过程,与会计工作十分密切,几乎每一笔业务都需要银行会计的核算与操作,防范金融风险的前提是防范银行会计风险。我国金融风险的成因有:商业银行的资产结构不合理,资产的盈利性及流动性差;金融机构采取粗放式经营方式,盲目扩张;金融机构内部管理松弛,运作不规范,约束机制不健全;银行自身风险意识差;中央银行的监管侧重于计划型和行政性、不适应市场经济。     

证券公司资产结构管理研究

对于具有资本密集和风险经营特性的证券公司而言,资产结构管理的研究对证券公司持续稳定经营有着重要的意义。本文通过系统聚类法分析了我国上市证券公司资产结构的相似性,并在此基础上进行了分类比较。研究结果表明:近年来,在行业竞争压力和业务创新的推动下,我国证券公司的资产结构出现了调整。同时,利用Kendall相关系数分析证券公司资产结构与ROE和风险管理指标之间的关系后表明:在净资本的约束下,证券公司资产结构调整是在对资本消耗和资本收益的权衡之下进行的,从制度和技术层面看,如何更好地加强证券公司资产结构管理至关重要。     

我国商业银行操作风险成因及对策分析

2010年底,我国将有第一批商业银行开始实施新巴塞尔协议,这标志着中国银行业的全面风险管理体系建设正式步入轨道。作为商业银行三大主要风险之一的操作风险,因为相关研究起步晚,管理滞后,成为银行业关注的重点。本文结合国内商业银行的实际,深入剖析当前我国商业银行操作风险产生的原因,并提出强化操作风险管理的对策。