科技创新是经济发展最根本的动力

人均收入成倍增长的动力是技术创新 从经济长期发展的角度来讲,科技创新确实是一个国家经济发展最根本的动力。根据国际知名的经济学家安德森·麦蒂森的研究,18世纪前,全世界最发达的西部地区的人均收入增长只有0．05％,按此换算,1400年人均收入才能够增加1倍。     

推动公平的经济增长

推动公平的经济增长对中国意味着什么?一篇最新的世行报告提供了这方面的研究成果     

中国经济发展依然让人乐观

我们预计,由于出口放缓,2008年中国GDP增长率从2007年的11.5％稍稍回落至10.4％。在财富效应的支持下,2008年消费增长很可能较2007年更具活力。我们预计投资增长将至少在2008年上半年基本保持目前的增速;监管部门对银行的窗口指导对固定资产投资的影响有限。因此,水泥、煤炭、铁矿石、铜和铝等大宗商品在2008年的增长前景该会仍然保持正面。宏观政策方面,我们预计通胀率将有所下降,因此2008年的加息压力将会缓解,但人民币升值可能有所加速,主要反映来自欧盟的压力等因素。在结构改革方面,我们预计政府将加大对替代能源的扶持力度,进一步支持银行综合经营,国企重组继续加速,抑制房市过热的措施将更有力度,新的地区经济增极将初步显现     

Interaction between economic and financial development

This paper presents a model of financial and economic development which assumes the consumption of real resources by the financial sector. Financial development occurs endogenously as the economy reaches a critical threshold of economic development. Compared to financial autarky, financial intermediaries allocate savings, net of their costs of operation, to more productive investments. Whenever the technology financed by intermediaries is more capital-intensive than that operated in financial autarky, the growth effect of financial development is ambiguous. As a result, financial development may be unsustainable. However, when financial development is sustainable, the credit market becomes more competitive and more efficient over time, and this could eventually contribute to economic growth. Nonetheless, given monopolistic competition in the financial sector, the level of entry into the credit market is generally inefficient. For instance, with diminishing returns to specialisation, entrants might be too few at the early stages of economic development and too many later on.     

Eurasian energy prospects and politics : Need for a longer-term western strategy

The Eurasian world around the Caspian Sea is likely to become an important oil and natural gas producer. This region is a gateway to three regions that are of great strategic importance to the West: to the east lies China and the rest of Asia; to the south lies Iran, Afghanistan, and the Islamic world; to the west and north lies Russia, Turkey and Europe. This is a region much larger than Western Europe. Future developments in Eurasia will therefore affect fundamentally not only the security of Western energy supplies, but also the traditional geopolitical equation in that part of the globe. The West needs to address current problems there as well as to pursue a proactive policy of conflict prevention. The European Union already imports half of its primary energy requirements, which will increase to 75% by the year 2020. Mutually rewarding energy cooperation offers the best means for integrating this region into the world family of market democracies. Turkey, a reassuringly Western ally, stands well positioned geographically, politically and economically to act as an energy ‘bridge’ between Eurasia and the West.     

全球经济运行的不确定性正在增加

对中国而言,当前经济增长保持高速,在前期从紧的调控政策下,市场普遍预期4季度通胀将有所回落,但其对投资和消费的不利影响正逐步显现,同时人民币的持续升值也会拖累出口的增长并驱动热钱流入。以上错综复杂的内外环境增加了全球经济运行的不确定性,同时也将考验中国政府对整体形势的判断和政策的运用     

Financial development and economic growth in Egypt

The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been widely examined in both the theoretical and empirical literature. This paper studies the relationship between these two variables in Egypt during the period 1961 to 2009, using co-integration and vector error correction analysis, Granger causality tests, and multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Results indicate that the two variables move together in the long run, and that financial development Granger causes economic growth in both the short-run and the long-run, thus providing support for the supply leading hypothesis. These findings are robust using different measures of financial development.     

Prospects for transdisciplinarity

The word “prospects” connotes the probability of success. The authors in this special issue of FUTURES have provided a broad view of the existing knowledge base, organizational structures, and strategies for implementing transdisciplinarity. At the same time, they were mindful of the remaining impediments. This closing reflection builds on their insights in two parts: (1) by defining the key imperatives of transdisciplinarity and (2) by reflecting on the requirements for a genuinely human science and transdisciplinary capacity.     

加快修改不适应经济稳健发展的法律条款

在中国产业转型与金融发展过程,抓紧修改与经济社会发展不相适应的法律．及时制定对推动科学发展、促进社会和谐有重要意义的法律,是中国国家安全的需要,是稳定金融秩序的需要,也是促进可持续发展的需要。为此,一些全国政协委员建议对不适应于经济稳健持续发展的相关法律加快修改完善     

亚行专家称白银市为经济转型的新样板

中国的资源枯竭型矿业城市白银市现在正转变为一个工业中心,为其他面临矿业资源开始枯竭的城市提供了一个恢复再发展的样板。“甘肃白银市发展项目”的总投资额为16,153万美元,其中包括亚洲开发银行（亚行）提供的8,000万美元贷款,     

德国房地产金融政策介评

在美国次贷危机引发全球经济衰退后,作为传统经济强国的德国,其房价并没有像欧盟中的英国、西班牙等国房价那样出现大幅波动。受益于"二战"结束后以来形成的特有的房地产金融模式,德国房地产市场在几十年中保持了供求基本平衡和价格总体水平较低的发展态势,抗风险能力一直较强。     

切实降低实体经济发展的融资成本

在观察家年会上,华夏银行副行长黄金老先生针对如何降低实体经济的融资成本发表了他的看法,他认为:第一,保持贷款适度的增加。第二,要适当降低法定存款准备金率。第三、稳定利率市场化的进程。他说当前经济处于困境,企业生产经营成本上升创新能力不足的问题是目前实体经济发展面临的问题,对此,要深入分析背后的原因,采取有效措施解决,这就要切实降低实体经济发展的融资成本。     

中国经济中长期发展与招商引资

中国投资协会会长。国家发改委投资研究所研究员张汉亚认为：中国目前处于向工业化转变和城市化时期,也是基础设施和基础产业加快建设和各种生产能力快速增长、社会事业和人民生活水平加快改善的发展阶段。他还认为,即使中国实现工业化和城镇化之后．脱离了发展中国家之列,众多人口和位于世界前列的经济总量的发展潜力．仍然会吸引世界各国的投资者。他说：