The changing dynamics of regionalism in South Korea's elections

One of the most persistent areas of discussion regarding South Korea's party and election systems is the continued elevation of regional personalities over political institutions. We seek to pour new wine into old bottles, however, by challenging a seldom‐considered assumption in Korean studies; that regionalism has exerted constant pressures across regime, province, and personality. There is a void in studying how transition to democracy has affected the dominance of personality‐based regionalism in Korean politics. We investigate democratization's impact on this phenomenon by examining the provincial distribution of legislative and presidential voting from 1971–2002. We employ a new indicator for personality‐based disproportionality, apply it to election outcomes at the provincial level, and find that the electoral impact of regionalism has changed over time across regimes, provinces, and political personalities. We find that regional voting disproportionality 1) increased immediately after transition; 2) has varied depending on personality and type of election; 3) is indeed low in provinces traditionally labeled as neutral; and 4) increased in the 2000 legislative election while declining in the 2002 presidential election.     

CRIME PREVENTION PROGRAMS: EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

This paper analyzes the impact of two anti‐crime programs adopted in Chile in the late 1990s. The first (the so‐called Quadrant Plan) is aimed at enhancing the quality of police work and the second (the Secure County Plan), at encouraging the involvement of the community in designing specific projects aimed at reducing the crime rate. It is found that only the Quadrant Plan has been successful in terms of reducing crime rates and has caused an impact through the effect of arrests in deterring crime. The Secure County program does not appear to have had any incidence on crime rates. It is also found that crime is associated with unemployment and that there is persistence in crime rates.     

Hot Spot Policing: A Study of Place‐Based Strategies for Crime Prevention

Hot spot policing is a popular policing strategy that addresses crime by assigning limited police resources to areas where crimes are more highly concentrated. We analyze this strategy using a game theoretic approach. The main argument against focusing police resources on hot spots is that it would simply displace criminal activity from one area to another. We provide new insights on the nature of the displacement effect with useful implications for the empirical analysis of crime‐reduction effects of police reallocation. We also propose alternative place‐based policies that display attractive properties in terms of geographic spillovers of crime reduction via optimal police reallocation.     

Population aging,consumption budget allocation and sectoral growth

This paper assesses the heterogeneous effects of population aging on personal budget allocation across sectors. Using China's household survey data, we break down each household expenditure component into its constituent members. We find consistent and robust age profiles of the composition of personal consumption expenditures. Young people spend larger proportions of their budget on food and education, culture, and recreation services. The middle-aged spend significantly more on clothing and transportation and communication. Lastly, the elderly spend substantially more on food and health care and medical services. After controlling for period and cohort effects as well as other socio-economic factors, we still find age to be a fundamental driver of consumption budget allocation. We also incorporate the estimated results into the population forecast data and predict the evolution of China's consumption budget allocation patterns driven by demographic change.     

China＇s Energy Reduction Policy System： Outcomes and Responses of Local Governments

The paper examines the outcomes of and responses to the policy system （the ＂obligatory indicator system＂） used by the Chinese central government to induce provincial governments to meet energy-saving targets during the llth Five Year Plan. The institutional mechanisms underlying the policy system that promotes implementation of energy saving are identified. An analytical framework is developed to identify the strategic responses of provincial governments and the factors shaping their responses. Comprehensive sets of provincial data on economic and energy performance are collected and analyzed. The findings indicate that the central government ＇s credible commitment to implement the policy system drove the initially disparate attitudes of provinces to a converged outcome. However, the outcome is significantly constrained by provinces ＇ initial energy intensity. In particular, provincial governments have applied strategies of ceremonial implementation, efficiency-oriented efforts and effectiveness-focused efforts to attain specific targets. This paper discusses the implications in comparison with the modified obligatory indicator system in the 12th Five Year Plan and offers policy suggestions accordingly.     

Regional Differences in China＇s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Potentials

This paper investigates the maximum energy efficiency level and the energy saving potentials in each region in China that can be practically attained at current economic and technological development levels. Most of the nation's energy efficient provinces are found along the coast of southeast China, while most of its least energy efficient provinces are in the hinterland that is rich in coal resources, and which depends heavily on coal consumption. China's low efficiency in energy resource allocation stems from its secondary industry, which is handicapped by the lowest energy efficiency and the most striking regional differentials. A comparison of the factors affecting the energy efficiency shows that the provinces being compared in this study differ tremendously in energy consumption structure, technological level of the secondary industry, and abundance of energy resources, and that the other factors are only adequate, rather than necessary, conditions. It is imperative to rectify the behaviors of provinces in balancing local energy allocation, to channel energy resources to energy efficient provinces, and to improve the national energy efficiency as a whole. When taking energy‐saving steps, provinces must take into full consideration both the national and local factors that affect energy efficiency. Furthermore, it is unrealistic for China to set a unified energy saving goal for different provinces. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)     

What Factors Can Explain the Rising Spatial Disparity in Economic Activities in China?

This paper explores the impact of spatial externalities in shaping China's economic geography by establishing a theoretical framework that contains regional productivity, trade barriers and local amenities to capture spatial externalities between different regions over time. Combining provincial data on bilateral trade flows with observed information about economic geography during the period 1998–2013, we estimate the distribution and marginal contribution of each explanatory factor. Empirical results suggest that regional labor density and wage are positively related to exogenous productivity and amenities, and negatively related to trade barriers. Meanwhile, variation in the marginal contribution of exogenous productivity and amenities and trade barriers reflects the regional temporal–spatial features in China's recent marketization process. Therefore, the Chinese government should place more emphasis on absorbing advanced technologies and reducing inter‐regional market barriers to promote balanced regional development and improve the efficiency of China's spatial resource allocation.     

Crisis,Stimulus Package and Migration in China

This paper analyzes the short‐term and long‐term effects that the global economic crisis and the investment priorities of the Chinese Government's stimulus package had on Chinese migrant flows between 2008 and 2014. Combining micro‐level household survey data and macro‐level statistics, the authors have found that in the short run, the regional and sectoral impact of the crisis, combined with the government's investment priorities, caused a reorientation of migration routes from the export‐oriented coastal provinces towards the central and western regions, from inter‐provincial migration towards intra‐provincial migration, and from manufacturing industry towards the construction sector. However, in the longer run, the decreasing attractiveness of the eastern region and the increasing attractiveness of the western region proved to be transitory, although the pre‐crisis relative advantage of the eastern region was not fully restored. What proved to be persistent were the attractiveness of the central region and the intra‐provincial migration in all three regions, and, in particular, the steady growth of migrants in the construction sector.     

Chinese Regions in the Great Divergence: Provincial Gross Domestic Product per Capita, 1873–1918

We construct 1912/18 Chinese provincial gross domestic product per capita from primary sources and project cross‐sections for 1873 and 1893. The results fit the historical record. We hypothesise that regionally specific conflicts have a role to play in explaining differential growth rates, and that geography, governance, and sectoral structures explain relative income‐level rankings. China's richest provinces matched Europe's poorest. A divergence did indeed occur, but our estimates show that at a broader economic level, it was perhaps not as dramatic as some of the literature implies.     

Impact of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Its Regional Economic Growth

This paper investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its economic growth. By using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed‐effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that both OFDI from provincial firms and OFDI from state‐owned enterprises have a positive impact on China's provincial economic growth. The positive impact of OFDI on provincial economic growth may be the result of reverse knowledge spillovers from OFDI to the home provincial economy through demonstration and imitation, labor movement, and backward and forward industrial linkages, thus increasing the productivity and the efficiency of home firms and promoting the growth of the home economy.     

地方政府项目竞争对工业绿色化发展的影响

分税制改革以来中央政府在财政再分配和宏观经济调控中采取的竞争性项目分配形成了独特的项目制模式。在此模式下,地方政府为获取财政资源而展开的项目竞争通过收入效应、资源配置效应和挤出效应,对工业绿色化转型发展产生影响。基于中国2002—2017年省际面板数据的实证研究表明：项目制总体上抑制了工业绿色化发展,并且在东中西部地区对工业绿色化发展均存在不同程度的抑制,在西部地区的抑制程度相比较而言要高于东中部地区;规范政府竞争行为可以在一定程度上减弱项目制的负面作用,促进工业绿色化发展。     

黄渤海地区影响农业产出因素的分析——基于Panel Data 模型

通过对黄渤海地区两市五省2002年—2012年农业产出进行描述性分析,并选取农业总产值作为代表农业产出水平的指标,将各省农业在经济中的地位、联合收获机的年末拥有量、化肥施用量、播种面积、受灾面积以及农村劳动力文化水平作为影响农业总产值的因素,利用2002年—2012年的省际面板数据,采用stata进行计量分析,对影响黄渤海地区各省农业总产值的因素进行测度。研究结果表明,我国黄渤海地区农业总产值受生产条件的影响较大;第一产增加值占GDP的比重对农业总产值也有较显著的影响,而劳动力文化水平程度的影响并不是很显著。     

Bringing home the bacon? Regional nutrition,stature, and gender in the industrial revolution1

The impact of changing diet and resultant nutrition on living standards over the industrial revolution has been much debated, yet existing data have enabled only general trends to be identified. We use data from Eden's survey of parishes in 1795 and the Rural Queries of 1834 to go beyond average calorie intake, instead focusing on micronutrients and quality of diet. From this we discern regional differences in diet. In 1795 these differences were related to the availability of common land and the nature of women's work. Diet in both periods also maps onto stature. Using five datasets on height, we observe a positive impact of diet in 1795 on men's, women's, and boy's heights. By 1834 the impact is less evident; for men it remained, for women and boys it either no longer existed or became negative. This may indicate the superseding of nutritional factors by environmental ones, but it also hints at the emergence of a different relationship between height and nutrition for women and children compared with men. We speculate that this points to a shift in the intra‐household allocation of resources, but challenge the notion that the emergence of male breadwinning automatically led to universal female disadvantage.     

新发展格局下城乡物流一体化对农村居民消费的影响

为了探究新发展格局下城乡物流一体化对农村居民消费的影响,基于2010—2019年中国省级面板数据,采用熵值法得出31个省份城乡物流一体化发展水平,采用回归模型对农村居民消费进行实证分析。研究发现：城乡物流一体化能够有效促进农村居民消费;从结构上看,城乡物流一体化对农村居民的8种类型的消费支出都具有显著促进作用;从区域上看,城乡物流一体化对农村居民消费具有区域差异,中西部地区的影响效应明显强于东部地区。     

Rail Transit and Neighborhood Crime: The Case of Atlanta,Georgia

The construction of commuter rail stations is the centerpiece of many metropolitan areas' overall strategies for dealing with worsening air pollution, automobile congestion, and urban sprawl. Neighborhood groups have frequently opposed new stations on the grounds that stations increase crime. If fears of station-induced neighborhood crime are justified, building new stations may make the problems they are supposed to address even worse, because crime is a cause of employment and population decentralization. This paper first demonstrates theoretically that transit's impact on neighborhood crime can be either positive or negative. Some rare evidence is then provided on the link between transit and crime. Using a unique panel of neighborhood crime data for Atlanta, the results from estimating fixed effects and random effects models show that transit's impact on crime depends on certain characteristics of the neighborhood. The mix of these characteristics found within central city neighborhoods has resulted in transit increasing crime there, whereas in the suburbs crime has been reduced by transit.     

中国省际高技术产业创新效率评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数法

基于中国29个省区市2014-2018年高技术产业的面板数据,首先采用超效率DEA模型对各省市生产效率进行测算,进而构建DEA-Malmquist模型对各省市综合生产率指数进行计算和分解.结果表明:中国高技术产业创新效率的总体水平较高,但是超过一半的省市区要素投入结构不合理,而且主要分布在中部和西部地区,创新效率存在较大的区域差异;中国高技术产业的全要素生产率指数平均值大于1,很多省份存在规模效率不高的问题,导致创新效率呈现N型的回调震动形态,技术进步和技术效率是全要素生产率提高的主要动力.因此,为了进一步提高我国高技术产业创新效率,需要注意保持高技术产业的技术水平和技术效率,尤其要注重高技术产业科技资源的优化配置,提升高技术产业创新资源的管理水平.     

Opening up,Market Reform,and Convergence Clubs in China*

This paper evaluates the relationship between initial government policies and the emergence of convergence clubs in post‐reform China. We test the structural stability of a global convergence equation using China's provincial data over the period 1985–2000. We find that the provinces cluster around two basins of attraction defined by initial opening‐up. Domestic market reform exerts a positive and significant influence on provincial economic growth but has no threshold effect. The two convergence clubs exhibit strikingly different growth behaviors, suggesting that the roles of some growth‐promoting factors, such as human capital and infrastructure, depend on whether an openness threshold is passed.     

Fiscal Decentralization or Centralization: Diverging Paths of Chinese Cities

If fiscal decentralization promotes growth, why do some regions decentralize more than others? This article identifies the growing divergence of fiscal centralization among Chinese cities and explains it in a public finance framework. It argues that fiscal decentralization and its economy‐liberalizing effect entail significant short‐term fiscal risk. The more a locality relies on uncompetitive business ownership for fiscal revenue, the less likely fiscal decentralization is to occur. This article compiles a dataset of 20 provincial capitals between 1999 and 2016 to test for the connection between a city's tax base and its fiscal centralization level. It then pairs two “most similar” cities to trace how fiscal security concerns drove their fiscal and economic policies apart. This article adds a micro‐level perspective to the literature on fiscal federalism. By pointing out the fiscal constraints confronting local governments, it offers a new angle to understand the different growth paths of Chinese cities.     

Juggling central control and provincial fiscal autonomy in South Africa

In this article it is argued that sound fiscal relations between national and subnational governments are based on a balance between central control and local fiscal autonomy. After sketching the theoretical aspects of the problem, we discuss some of the fiscal problems experienced by South Africa's provinces since 1994. We then argue that these problems are caused by insufficient provincial fiscal autonomy. Some suggestions are made as to how provincial fiscal autonomy may be reinforced without compromising central government control to an unacceptable degree.     

医疗卫生财政支出对经济增长贡献的时空差异-基于1997-2012年30个省级地区面板数据分析

文章基于1997-2012年30个省级地区数据构建固定效应模型，选用“医疗卫生财政支出决算额”测算医疗卫生财政支出水平，研究分析医疗卫生财政支出对经济增长贡献的时间、空间差异及原因。结果显示：医疗卫生财政支出对经济增长存在明显时空差异，空间上表现为西部地区医疗卫生财政支出的贡献度最高，东部次之，中部最低，时间上呈现出“由低到高，日趋平稳”的变化趋势。政府应明确自身职能责任，通过加大西部地区医疗卫生财政支出力度，提高财政支出效率等途径，整合全社会卫生资源，完善医疗卫生资源分配机制。