An Economic Analysis of Extortion in Russia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

中国城市经济运行的特征分析

文章在利用Malmquist指数和一系列反应地区差异的统计指标对中国216个地级市1990~2004年城市经济增长的效率和差异进行描述的基础上,针对2000年以来中国城市经济表现出的新特点,采用因子分析和空间计量方法分析了影响中国城市经济增长的主要因素。结果表明,1990~2004年中国216个地级市的TFP整体呈现出增长的趋势,城市经济的地区差异明显且呈扩大趋势。2000年以来影响中国城市经济增长的因子强度依次为:地理位置因子、产业结构与市场化水平因子和要素投入因子。     

An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994–2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.     

俄罗斯经济发展形势的分析与预测

本文采用俄罗斯2002-2013年的季度数据作为样本,主要分析了季节性差分自回归模型——SARIMA模型在俄罗斯季度GDP预测中的应用,通过相应的分析最终得到了SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)4为俄罗斯季度GDP的最优预测模型.通过该模型对俄罗斯短期和长期经济发展形势进行了预测,得出俄罗斯未来四年的GDP年增长率在2.3％左右,长期的经济增长率在2.1％左右,经济形势依然不容乐观.     

经济全球化时代发展中国家贸易政策的变迁

在工业化初步发展阶段，落后国家采取贸易保护政策具有一定的合理性，然而随着经济的迅速发展，贸易保护存在的理由和社会条件也将日渐消失。在知识经济和经济全球化时代，自由贸易政策将成为促进发展中国家实现经济赶超的捷径。我国加入WTO和推动自由贸易也体现了经济发展的必须性要求。     

中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整

后危机时代,中国经济增长依然强劲,以投资为代表的扩张模式将延续传统增长动力,全年增长仍可维持在潜在增长水平之上。另一方面,强力的宏观政策激励后,资产泡沫与通货膨胀阴影挥之不去,系统性风险逐步加大,但不至于失控,2011年通胀风险在货币继续正常化条件下将有所回落。后危机时代全球经济表现出了一系列典型化事实,全球范围内金融货币和实体经济的分离、大宗商品的重新定义等,决定了发达国家与新兴市场国家之间再均衡的必然性。在此大背景下,中国经济结构的再均衡过程应该更集中在机制、体制和供给政策,优化投资结构,促进城市化和服务业的深度发展,探索一条可持续的增长之路。     

经济全球化背景下的我国城市圈域经济发展

在经济全球化和区域经济一体化不断深化的背景下,城市圈域经济作为经济区域化的空间实现形式,在国家乃至国际经济竞争与合作中的作用越来越重要。其发展不仅仅服务于区域经济,更不是服务于区域中的某一城市,而是服务于经济全球化背景下的国家战略。当前,我国城市圈域具有广泛的共同利益基础,其发展主要以政府合作的形式展开,主要着力于三大职能:一体化的制度供给和监管职能、城市规划的统筹引导职能及政府机构间沟通协商职能。     

中国共产党中央苏区领导经济建设基本经验研究

在以毛泽东同志为首的中国共产党在中央苏区开展领导了轰轰烈烈的经济建设,为当时的革命战争提供了极大的支持。在研究中国共产党领导中央苏区经济建设思想和方法的基础上,概括了中国共产党领导中央苏区经济建设基本经验：（1）坚持为政治服务;（2）坚持以人为本;（3）坚持与时俱进;（4）坚持科学决策;（5）坚持反腐倡廉。     

人口分布对新疆经济发展的时空效应研究

新疆人口分布的时空变化与经济发展的综合效应表现为北疆人口密度高于南疆，东疆人口密度最低；北疆经济密度最高，其次是东疆，南疆最低。人口集中能够促进经济发展水平的集中，新疆的经济发展受到人口集中的影响，而且从长远看还必须认识到水土资源和社会环境对经济发展的制约作用。     

俄罗斯设立经济特区历史进程与经验教训

本文系统考察了俄罗斯举办经济特区的历史沿革和最新动向,阐述了俄罗斯经济特区分布状况、主要形式、管理体制和优惠政策,分析了俄罗斯设立经济特区的经验教训。     

对俄经济合作的新思考

加强和扩大对俄合作一直是我国的重要外交政策.随着中俄经济关系的不断发展,又出现了新的变化和特点.在市场经济条件下,构筑新型中俄经济合作关系,不断开拓黑龙江省对俄新的合作领域和深层次合作内容,寻找新的合作增长点是目前两国经贸关系发展的基本方向,尤其对两国发展地方经济合作关系具有巨大的潜力和广阔的前景,并对振兴东北老工业基地具有十分重要的意义.     

Recovery Growth and Some Peculiarities of the Contemporary Economic Situation in Russia

This article shows that after the collapse of the USSR the post-socialist countries all followed a similar path: after the transformation fall in social production they are now in the stage of growth. Moreover, this does not depend on particular circumstances connected with, for example, the absence or presence of exportable resources, government by one party or another or the accession of any particular politician to power. This growth, called recovery growth, by its nature inevitably fades, and in Russia its possibilities are practically exhausted. However, the question is not about driving up the pace of growth, which is dangerous. On the contrary, efforts must be concentrated on preparing and carrying out comprehensive, interconnected structural reforms, which will also ensure steady economic growth in the future. The country, the author says, must learn to develop using not so much instruments of state coercion as private incentives and initiative.     

The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the interaction between the distributionof human capital, technological progress, and economic growth.It argues that the composition of human capital is an importantfactor in the determination of the pattern of economic development.The study demonstrates that the evolutionary pattern of the humancapital distribution, the income distribution, and economic growthare determined simultaneously by the interplay between a local home environment externality and a global technologicalexternality. In early stages of development the local home environmentexternality is the dominating factor and hence the distributionof income becomes polarized; whereas in mature stages of developmentthe global technological externality dominates and the distributionof income ultimately contracts. Polarization, in early stagesof development may be a necessary ingredient for future economicgrowth. An economy that prematurely implements a policy designedto enhance equality may be trapped at a low stage of development.An underdeveloped economy, which values equality as well as prosperity,may confront a trade-off between equality in the short-run followedby equality and stagnation in the long-run, and inequality inthe short-run followed by equality and prosperity in the longrun.