Dynamic modelling of pollution abatement in a CGE framework

This paper deals with the specification of pollution abatement in dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and analyses the dynamic feedback mechanisms between economy and abatement in the context of environmental policy. A Ramsey-type economic model is presented, in which bottom-up technical and economic information on abatement techniques is integrated in a top-down dynamic CGE context. The practical suitability of the specification is illustrated by an empirical application for climate change and acidification in the Netherlands. The results show that a mixture of some slowdown of economic growth, a substantial restructuring of the economy and implementation of most technical abatement measures is optimal.     

Energy biased technical change: A CGE analysis

This paper studies energy bias in technical change. For this purpose, we develop a computable general-equilibrium model that builds on endogenous growth models. The model explicitly captures links between energy, the rate and direction of technical change, and the economy. We show the importance of feedback in technical change, substitution possibilities between final goods, and general-equilibrium effects for energy bias in technical change. If the feedback effect is strong, or the substitution elasticity large, or both, our model tends to a corner solution in which only technologies are developed that are appropriate for production of non-energy intensive goods.     

The impact of the Indonesian income tax reform: A CGE analysis

This study evaluates the impacts of Indonesia's recent income tax reforms on key macroeconomic variables, as well as the impacts on poverty and income distribution. It was found that the reductions in personal income tax and corporate income tax increase economic growth under a balanced budget assumption. The policy reforms also lead to a small reduction in the incidence of poverty. However, the policies also lead to an increase in income inequality because the tax cut is more beneficial to households in the highest income categories. It is recommended that future tax cuts should target the urban and rural poor.     

Global Crisis,National Responses: The Political Economy of Turkish Exceptionalism

With its dilatory and piecemeal fiscal activism and uncharacteristic aversion to IMF assistance, the Turkish government's response to the global economic crisis of 2008–9 diverged considerably from prevalent trends in other major emerging market countries. Underlying this intriguing pattern were Turkey's pre-existing policy and macroeconomic constraints, cognitive lapses on the part of policymakers, and the conjunctural dynamics of domestic politics. The interplay of these factors progressively narrowed the policy space for vigorous action, leading to a motley combination of reactive initiatives that neither offered sufficient protection to vulnerable social groups nor promised sustainable growth in the long run despite rapid short-term recovery.     

Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000–2001, Revisited

Turkey’s exchange rate based stabilization programme had collapsed within just 11 months of its implementation in the midst of a liquidity crunch in November 2000 caused by a reversal in the capital inflow. The onset of the stabilization programme created ample opportunities for speculative investors to make relatively safe one‐sided bets, and the initial success of the programme in bringing down interest rates implied substantial capital gains over securities obtained in 1999 and early stages of the programme. It was only natural that speculative investors would take the opportunity to realize these gains while the firm exchange rate commitment was still in place. The programme failed to deal with this contingency effectively, assuming that as long as it was implemented faithfully, long‐term investors would be forthcoming to takeover positions speculators would want to unload. That assumption proved disastrously wrong.     

A CGE analysis of oil price change

As Chinese economy system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of China, the change in the price of international oil have caused concern among economists and policy makers. This paper is to present a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes. And the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexile exchange rate system to consider the effect of foreign oil price changes from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.     

Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal: A CGE analysis

In this paper we examine the effects of trade liberalisation on inequality in the small developing country of Nepal. We use a Computable General Equilibrium approach applied to a newly developed social accounting matrix, simulating three liberalisation scenarios: (i) import liberalisation; (ii) export liberalisation; and (iii) import and export liberalisations implemented together under different exchange rate regimes. Outcomes reveal that industry reallocation following liberalisation does not respond to classical trade theory expectations about factor intensity and abundance. On the distributive side, liberalisation seems to increase the high-skilled/low-skilled gap and favour rich households relatively more. However, since under fixed exchange rate also the two poorest household groups increase their income levels, liberalisation may also expected to be beneficial for poverty alleviation.     

Tariffication of a Distorted Economy: A CGE Analysis

This paper examines the consequences of the tariffication of a quota when there are several potential distortions present in a country, including domestic monopoly and wage rigidities. It is generally presumed that tariffs are superior to quotas because of their transparency and revenue-raising attributes. However, in the presence of multiple distortions, liberalization of a single policy instrument may result in net welfare losses. The findings suggest that, in a general equilibrium context, such a liberalization policy will have ambiguous effects upon aggregate domestic welfare in the country undertaking the tariffication.     

The impact of the 2008 German corporate tax reform: A dynamic CGE analysis

In this paper we develop the dynamic CGE model, ifoMod, which is designed to analyse the impact of fundamental tax reforms and in particular capital income tax reforms for Germany. The model is in line with neoclassical growth theory and features all important behavioural interactions between the four major building blocks of an economy including the firm and household sector, the government and the rest of the world. We consider firms of different legal forms which all face an intertemporal investment problem, a financing problem w.r.t. the optimal choice of debt and equity financing as well as a factor input problem when deciding on the optimal amount of different skill types of labour employed. We show the impact of different types of taxes on the behavioural margins of firms and households. The conducted simulation shows the impact of the latest German corporate tax reform of 2008 on the German macroeconomic variables such as investments, GDP, consumption and household's welfare.     

Trade liberalisation in fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes: a CGE analysis for Nepal

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model applied to social accounting matrix database to assess the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of trade with and without exchange rate (EXR) liberalisation in a small, developing and transition economy of Nepal. We implement trade liberalisation simulations under two scenarios: fixed EXR but endogenous foreign savings and flexible EXR but exogenous foreign savings. The second scenario is again subdivided into two parts – higher foreign savings as per the inference of the first scenario, and the constant foreign savings. We conclude that the economy undergoes contraction if import, export and exchange rate liberalisations are all implemented simultaneously. However, if currency appreciation and higher foreign saving inflow are controlled, the overall growth impact is still positive, but additional policy measures are necessary to make the impacts pro-poor.     

Sources of Australian Labour Productivity Change 1950–1994

This study examines sources of Australian labour productivity change from 1950 to 1994. Time-series data are used to estimate a model capturing the interaction between labour productivity, fixed capital, human capital, telecommunications, trade openness and international competitiveness. Attention is given to the time-series properties of these data. ADF tests for unit roots are employed, and the sensitivity of the tests to non-linear transformations and structural breaks are considered. Estimates suggest that policies that promote investment, economic integration and international competitiveness will improve short-run labour productivity. In the long run, fixed capital accumulation is the dominant source of productivity improvement.     

论企业危机及其防范

企业的任何经营活动都在获得收益的同时，也存在着风险，世界上没有只有收益而没有任何风险的经营活动，因而企业的经营活动实际上是在选择风险，即在收益与风险的比较中使收益最大化而风险最小化；管理风险，即将风险控制在最小的范围内；防范风险，即不让风险危及企业利益和企业经营活动。有风险就有转化为危机的可能，企业就应在如何发现、防范和治理危机上做文章。     

Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis

In this paper we analyze the sources of German unemployment within a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) framework. For this purpose we estimate a VECM model using data for unified Germany. The cointegration analysis reveals a long-run relationship between real wages, productivity and unemployment which is interpreted as a wage setting relation. Based on a reduced form subset VECM we identify structural shocks and assess their importance for unemployment by impulse response analysis, forecast error variance and historical decompositions. In contrast to previous studies for West Germany, we find that productivity, labor supply and labor demand shocks are important sources of unemployment in the long-run.

阿根廷货币危机发生的原因及启示

本文考察了阿根廷经济的当前状况 ,对阿根廷发生货币危机的原因进行探讨 ,进而分析货币局制度对阿根廷经济的不利影响 ,并对同样实行联系汇率制度的中国香港提出了几点启示。     

The Role of Information Disclosure and Uncertainty in the 1994/95 Mexican Peso Crisis: Empirical Evidence

This paper analyzes the role that the distribution of information played during the Mexican peso crisis 1994/95. In accordance with theoretical models, we find that, first, an improvement in the mean of posterior beliefs about economic fundamentals generally reduced speculative pressures. Secondly, the standard deviation of beliefs as a measure of information disparity did not significantly influence traders’ behavior. Information disparity did have a significant impact, however, when combined with the mean of beliefs. The combined effect, moreover, allows a tentative distinction between private or public information having dominated posterior beliefs. In this respect, thirdly, our analysis points to public information having driven speculative pressures.     

The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: A CGE analysis

South Africa has the highest UNAIDS HIV severity rating: “generalised pandemic”. A country with this classification requires public health interventions aimed at the general population. This paper investigates the efficacy of one such policy, examining the national economic effects of an increase in condom use. We use an epidemiological model to estimate the impact of condom use on HIV infections distinguished by age, gender and race. The epidemiological model's outputs are input to an economy-wide dynamic general equilibrium model that distinguishes labour market participants by age, gender, race, labour market status and HIV status. We find that the programme generates gains in real consumption with a present value of approximately USD $30 billion, or USD $2000 per household.     

The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis

To examine the impact of trade barrier reductions on the Chinese economy following its WTO accession, a single‐country, static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is constructed, which incorporates certain elements of imperfect competition in China's current economic situation. China's real GDP and total employment are expected to rise by small degrees, while the general price level may decline by a few percentage points. Total imports would rise by more than 10%, whereas total exports would increase far less. China's trade surplus is, therefore, likely to shrink substantially and its dependence upon foreign trade is likely to rise by a few percentage points. A sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the simulation results. A comparison with other CGE studies on China's trade liberalization also shows the plausibility of this study's predictions.

JEL Classification: F17, C68     

Aid,spending strategies and productivity effects: A multi-sectoral CGE analysis for Zambia

Numerous econometric studies fail to detect a significant and robust relationship between international aid and economic growth in the recipient countries. Dutch Disease effects might be responsible for this result. This paper examines the relation between aid and its effectiveness in a multi-sector multi-household Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-framework. Given that international transfers to African countries increasingly take the form of general financial support to the government, different spending strategies and their macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects are evaluated in a two-stage simulation making a distinction between immediate direct effects and possible long-run effects from increased productivity. The presence of sector-specific factors weakens Dutch Disease effects and shifts the burden of adjustment primarily to other exporting sectors. While the model simulates the effects of additional aid in Zambia it can be used as a blueprint for other African countries.     

新能源“危机”、垄断与规制

该文剖析了我国新能源产业中存在的主要问题,运用产业经济学和博弈理论对新能源产业的市场结构、产业结构和政府规制作了分析。针对新能源"危机"的化解提出建议:完善金融市场,运用金融工具规避价格波动风险;提升企业在价值链中的位势;合理设置垄断和竞争模式,消除企业身份歧视;逐步实现大部制,统一能源管理权限;加大对电网改造、专业技术人才培养等公共供给。     

An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy

We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987–2002.