需求方创新政策研究进展与未来展望

近年来,需求方创新政策在刺激需求、促进产业创新与升级中的作用日趋明显,已成为世界各国政府刺激创新的重要政策。然而,需求方创新政策在中国的理论与实践中尚未引起足够重视。鉴于此,在梳理需求方创新政策最新研究成果的基础上,归纳提炼了需求方创新政策内涵、分类与特征,重点对需求方创新政策选择依据、作用及挑战等国内外最新研究进展进行了深入分析,以期理清思路,为未来需求方创新政策理论和实践研究指明方向,为中国创新型国家建设提供参考。     

Problems and Prospects for the UK Economy*

Spokesmen for Ms Thatcher's government have repeatedly stated that the British economy was 'the sick man of Europe' in the years before 1979; a policy of demand management in pursuit of full employment had brought only temporary relief, whereas her government's firm policy aimed at a long-term cure. This article considers how far this diagnosis was correct, what the new policies were, how the economy has fared in the light of these policies and the development of North Sea oil and why things turned out that way. It concludes with a brief assessment of future prospects.     

Chicago's water market: dynamics of demand,prices and scarcity rents

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.     

Determinants of agricultural water saving technology adoption: an empirical study of 10 provinces of China

In recent years, China has been faced by an increasingly severe water shortage due to the continual growth of demand on water resources. Although the Chinese government has been actively promoting the agricultural water-saving technology adoption, it is ill-informed of the adoption degree of the current agricultural watersaving technologies as well as the function of the governmental policies, Therefore, this paper＂ analyzes the aforesaid problems based on investigative data of 10 provinces in China. The results demonstrate that although there is a rapid increase of adopted agricultural water-saving technologies, the actual adoption area is rather limited. Moreover, the governmental policies and scarcity of water resources are the deierminants of agricultural water-saving technology adoption. Ultimately, the paper proposes some policy suggestions.     

Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place.In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions.     

SAVING ENERGY THROUGH BETTER INFORMATION: A NEW ENERGY PARADIGM?

For the past 40 years, governments, utilities, and private companies have developed increasingly efficient appliances for household use and governments have initiated policies to encourage the deployment of these technologies. To the credit of these activities, we have improved the efficiency of electricity use in the United States, but it has not been enough to overcome the increasing demand from proliferation of electricity‐using devices. In addition, penetration rates for some types of efficient equipment have remained relatively low in certain regions. U.S. electricity demand thus continues to grow. In this paper, we argue that to achieve significantly greater efficiency improvements needed to meet future demand for energy services, we should provide more information to consumers about their energy use and give them more control over this use. While more studies are needed to assess just how far these types of measures can take us, there is enough evidence to show that with better information, consumers often make choices that reduce energy use.     

An Incentive Water Pricing Policy for Sustainable Water Use

By adopting the Water Framework Directive (WFD), the European Commission (EC) and the European Council made recommendations for water pricing policies in European Union (EU) member states with a view to enhancing the sustainability of water resources. Clearly, the directive integrates economic instruments in environmental policies to provide incentives for the sustainable use of water resources. Our analysis will focus on public water utilities, required to be financially self-sufficient, facing demand and capacity shocks. The paper deals with the simultaneous determination of incentive pricing policies and investment rules under an ex~ante maximum demand charge. We will characterize the welfare-optimal capacity selection rule and the welfare-optimal maximum demand pricing rule. Heterogeneous consumers demands are considered when tariffs are set ex~ante, before demands are known. Our results are state-contingent nonlinear pricing that responds to demand fluctuations and capacity constraints.      

FEDERAL ACQUISITION OF WATER THROUGH VOLUNTARY TRANSACTIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PURPOSES

Throughout U.S. history public land management agencies have attempted to achieve environmental objectives by relying on a broad range of policy tools, including both regulatory and voluntary mechanisms. An important component of these policies has been oriented toward the acquisition of land or partial interests in land from voluntary sellers. However, it has become clear that preserving or restoring damaged ecosystems increasingly requires more than land and easement acquisitions. The procurement of water for environmental purposes is becoming increasingly common. In some regions such acquisitions also represent a significant share of the local water market activity. Given the increasingly important role these transactions play in achieving federal environmental objectives, it makes sense to consider the alternative mechanisms available that could be used for such acquisitions. This paper examines the situations where the federal government has acquired water for environmental purposes and the extent to which competitive mechanisms—such as auctions—could be used in future acquisition efforts.     

Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080

Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with and without climate change, with and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits of crops were developed with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily water balances at 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude and then aggregated to regions and the globe. Future regional and global irrigation water requirements were computed as a function of both projected irrigated land and climate change and simulations were performed from 1990 to 2080. Future trends for extents of irrigated land, irrigation water use, and withdrawals were computed, with specific attention given to the implications of climate change mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current and future climate conditions. Results suggest that mitigation of climate change may have significant positive effects compared with unmitigated climate change. Specifically, mitigation reduced the impacts of climate change on agricultural water requirements by about 40%, or 125–160 billion m³ (Gm³) compared with unmitigated climate. Simple estimates of future changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs suggest that by 2080 mitigation may translate into annual cost reductions of about 10 billion US$.     

The determinants of reforestation in Brazil

This article analyses the main determinants of reforestation in Brazil during the 1980s and 1990s. In the year 2000 Brazil had the sixth largest planted forests area in the world. The planted forests in Brazil saw a huge increase from 1960 to 1985. Since then, however, that stock has decreased, but the demand for roundwood continues to increase. That situation will result in a scarcity of roundwood from reforestation in Brazil in few years. The expected roundwood scarcity motivates an econometric study to compare market forces and economic policies in stimulating the reforestation in Brazil. Considering the main firms reforesting in Brazil, it can be pointed out that small and medium farmers have been planting forests while private or public programmes are present. Otherwise, large wood-based firms consider factors other than prices (such as their future demand for roundwood) to be more important in their planting decisions. Those results cast doubts about the efficiency of the market price system in solving the future scarcity of roundwood in Brazil.     

Uncertainty over future environmental taxes

Besides static efficiency properties, environmental policies should be evaluated in terms of their longer-run impacts on investment and technological change to reduce pollution and degradation of natural resources. Using a stochastic dynamic programming approach, this paper analyzes how uncertainty about a future environmental tax on a polluting input alters investment in resource conservation and how such investment affects future demand for the polluting input. The impact on investment depends crucially on price elasticities of demand and on the manner in which investment shifts and rotates the demand schedule for the polluting input in the future. The expectation of a higher tax does not necessarily create stronger incentives for investment in resource conservation. More uncertainty about future policies does encourage investment if it makes a firm more responsive to future price changes and discourages investment if it makes a firm less responsive to price changes.     

Product R&D Investment Policies in an International Duopoly

This study analyzes the optimal product R&D investment policies of a developed and a developing country in an international Cournot duopoly where firms from these two countries compete through endogenous quality–quantity decisions. We explore a new international trade model by using demand functions derived from utility functions. We find that the optimal product R&D investment policies for both countries are subsidies. This study counters a finding that used Hotelling‐type demand functions and it partially modifies another result that adopted the same demand functions but with an international Bertrand duopoly.     

Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France

The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, energy, environment and natural resources.     

A Cost Function Analysis of the Australian Transportation Equipment Industry

This article investigates the existence of economies of scale and input cross and direct price elasticities of demand in the Australian motor vehicle industry. Our estimated cost elasticities were less than one (consistent with economies of scale), but not significantly less than one at the 10 per cent level for two versions of the model. However, the estimated cost elasticity was significantly less than one at approximately the 2.5 per cent level for a third. Thus, these results give some credibility to the infant industry argument for continued assistance to the Australian transportation equipment industry. A four-input model separating domestic and foreign intermediate goods inputs suggests that while restrictions on imported components may have given some short-run relief to the domestic components industry and increased the demand for labour domestically, they decreased the demand for domestic capital. Although the infant industry argument could support short-run protectionist policies for the industry, it appears that such policies regarding the Australian motor vehicle industry must be designed carefully with a specified phase-out period if long-term adverse results are to be avoided.     

How will good economic policy environments emerge in Africa?

In Africa, institutions were not established at independence that took proper account of the pluralism of the societies, while civil society failed to press for institutions to control the state. Political leaders have had little self‐interest in pursuing good economic policies, and there is weak civil societal demand for such policies. Foreign aid and the proposed peer review mechanism of the African Union could help strengthen this demand. Social scientists can help by focusing on corruption in top political leadership, reducing ethnicity, and improving political leadership. Selectivity for aid can be ex ante, with resoluteness in withdrawing aid for not keeping promises.     

Valuing Options in Water Markets: A Laboratory Investigation

Risk and reliability dominate water supply discussions in the arid western United States due to increasing demand and finite, weather-dependent supply. Water markets have evolved in this region so agencies could meet this growing demand. In a few instances, water agencies turned to contractual mechanisms such as options to manage supply. As demand continues to grow option markets and other novel approaches to allocating water may become increasingly popular. We utilize experimental economics to analyze the effect of annual options on water markets in the absence of sufficient real-world data for conventional econometric analysis. We find gains from trade are higher when options can be traded. Additionally, gains are more evenly distributed, particularly with a dominant buyer and many sellers. Findings suggest option markets may be a viable choice as policymakers prepare for future droughts.     

A Model of Structural Change and Openness: Applications to the Argentine economy

This paper describes a dynamic, multisectoral model of a less developed economy in which investment and income distribution policies influence structural change and the pattern of trade. That is, the model considers a Keynesian 'socialised investment' function and distributional policies that, by their effect on demand, could be also described as Keynesian. The model is used to analyse the effects of different policy regimes in the Argentine economy. In an environment characterised by enduring stagnation, investment policies aimed at increasing the degree of economic autonomy and self-sufficiency do not succeed in significantly changing output and trade patterns, and in reducing the degree of openness of the economy. From a long term perspective, however, stagnation is not necessarily a permanent condition. A new environment of higher growth could evolve from the consolidation of a new technological paradigm and the emergence of new socioeconomic norms and mechanisms. In an environment of lower uncertainty and higher efficacy of the investment, model simulation shows that investment policy is quite successful in augmenting the degree of autonomy and self-sufficiency of the economy. Also, income redistribution has a positive impact on income and welfare growth.     

An Evaluation of Unemployment Policy in Australia Using the Range of Equilibria

The major failures of macroeconomic policy in the last 40 years are the huge increases in unemployment and inflation in the 1970s and the persistence for 25 years of the former. This article uses econometric estimates of a model of the range of equilibria for Australia for the period 1965:4 to 2003:3 to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in these failures. Our analysis distinguishes the roles of aggregate supply policies and aggregate demand policies. We conclude from our analysis that macroeconomic outcomes would have been better over this period had monetary policy been guided by a hierarchical inflation target, which is to be set so as to achieve the highest level of activity subject to satisfying the inflation target.     

Genetic engineering in agriculture: New approaches for risk management through sustainability reporting

Genetically modified crops and foodstuff have been highly controversial for environmental, health, and ethical reasons. The controversies have been worldwide, but most prominent in the European Union, for reasons that include distrust of the regulatory authorities, scientists and technocratic decision making. An informal moratorium in the EU came recently to an end, without solving the underlying problems. In response to the criticisms, the European governments have attempted to improve the risk assessment methods and their scientific basis, and to tailor public policies to the growing demand for transparency, accountability, and public participation.This paper proposes a novel approach to including the public in evaluating the impacts of food and agricultural biotechnology and present and future applications modeled after the growing practice of sustainability reporting by companies. The most visible among those, Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), when implemented properly, includes a wide range of stakeholders, including the financial institutions, companies, NGOs and the civil society, in an interactive multi-stakeholder discourse and collaboration. The reporting exercise would open the discussion about the R&D around new GMO products, and could mitigate potential adverse effects in an early stage (Constructive Technology Assessment). We specifically propose initiating a broadly based societal initiative aimed at developing of a new sectoral supplement of GRI Guidelines, specifically designed for the food and agricultural biotechnology sector.This approach can be conceptualized as experimentation on a small scale with a multitude of stakeholders involved (Bounded Socio-Technical Experiment or BSTE) which is an effective venue for higher-order learning among participants. Sustainability reports and BSTEs have been so far applied in limited cases, none of which included highly controversial technologies such as biotechnology; they need further elaboration and testing to become possibly highly effective concepts and tools for mitigating conflicts on the societal implications of emerging technologies, and to lead to better public policies and greater social trust.