THE FIRST ROUND OF THE KEYNESIAN REGIONAL INCOME MULTIPLIER

Previous studies utilising the Keynesian regional income multiplier have paid very limited attention to the estimation of the income generation which occurs during the first round of the multiplier process. However, since the first round of income generation is of greater magnitude than that of any other round, it is particularly important that the first round effects should be estimated correctly. This paper will attempt to analyse the way in which such estimation depends upon the types and values of the propensities to withdraw which are included in the first round. These are related, in turn, to the type of income which the multiplier methodology is attempting to measure, and to the form which the injection itself takes.     

区域可持续发展的决策过程分析

区域可持续发展是实施可持续发展战略的基础,是区域发展的必然选择,而在决策过程中融入可持续发展思想是实现区域可持续发展的必要条件,本文从系统科学的角度分析了区域可持续发展的决策过程。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONEY BALANCES AND THE NONNEUTRALITY OF MONEY*

Recent monetary models with explicit microfoundations are made tractable by assuming that agents have access to centralized markets after one round of decentralized trade. Given quasi‐linear preferences, this makes the distribution of money degenerate—which keeps the models simple but precludes the discussion of distributional effects of monetary policy. We generalize these models by assuming two rounds of trade before agents can readjust their money holdings to study a range of new distributional effects analytically. We show that unexpected, symmetric lump‐sum money injections may increase short‐run output and welfare, whereas asymmetric injections may increase long‐run output and welfare.     

基于区域经济差异的梯度推移粘性研究

梯度推移理论认为,高梯度地区产业总是在不停地向低梯度地区推移,但是我国东、西部地区长期以来存在着差距。近年来,尽管出台了许多区域优惠政策,但区域经济差距依然很大,扩散效应不明显。文章通过实证分析,发现其原因是我国东、西部地区在梯度推移过程中存在着诸多粘性因素,这些因素可以分为硬环境和软环境两大因素。     

区域一体化进程中的产业发展协作问题及其治理机制优化

伴随我国区域一体化进程的加速,地区间产业发展的协作意识逐渐增强,但受体制环境以及地方政府单体利益追求等因素的制约,不可避免地会存在一定程度的盲目竞争和重复建设,迫切需要优化区域治理机制,增进区域协作。文章以长三角地区为实证对象,在揭示其一体化趋势的基础上,综合运用多种定量方法详细分析了长三角地区的产业发展协作问题,并提出了推进产业协作的治理路径和策略。     

外汇储备收益率、币种结构和热钱

本文估计了2000—2006年中国外汇储备的收益率、币种结构和2003年后1流入中国的热钱数量。研究发现,2003年前外汇储备年平均收益率分别为4.8%,欧元资产比例大约为7.2%;2003年后欧元资产比例上升至26.7%,收益率在2.3%—2.5%之间。但是欧元比例上升主要原因是欧元升值,而不是由于中国政府大规模增持欧元资产。利用估计得到的收益率和币种结构,我们估算了热钱的数量,发现2006年上半年并没有热钱流入。     

货币市场基金的制度分析

在我国发展货币市场基金已经具有一定的必要性甚至紧迫性。但从我国的实际状况来看,发展货币市场基金的条件并不是很具备。但这并不意味着一定要等到货币市场发展完善之后才进行货币市场基金的培育。其实,货币市场基金与货币市场是同步发展、互相促进的关系,在一定意义上货币市场基金也能够促进货币市场的发展。