TPP在美国重塑国际贸易秩序中的双重功能

美国加入并主导TPP谈判出于多重考虑,从美国重塑国际贸易秩序的视角看,一方面,美国将TPP作为主导亚太区域贸易秩序构建的手段,为塑造区域贸易秩序提供范本;另一方面,美国将TPP作为撬动多边贸易谈判的工具,为多边贸易谈判提供范本,并减少未来贸易谈判的障碍.中美在国际贸易秩序重塑中存在竞争关系,为应对美国的TPP战略,中国应致力于增强东亚经济的“自我循环”能力,凝聚全球发展共识,并妥善处理中美竞争关系.     

自由贸易的形成及其在东亚的发展趋势

2003年12月12日,日本与东盟10国发表了旨在加强日本与东盟各国经济、政治和安全关系的《东京宣言》和《行动计划》,并首次提出了建立东亚共同体的概念。这次峰会预示着日本同东盟的区域经济关系将出现新的飞跃,是东亚自由贸易区发展进程中值得关注的新动向。本文从区域经济一体化的类型入手,深入探讨了WTO框架下自由贸易区在全球的发展状况及其原因,指出日本对东亚区域经济合作战略和方针的调整是东亚自由贸易区发展进程中值得关注的新动向,对东亚经济一体化进程将产生深远影响。     

新时代我国区域经济高质量发展转型和政策调整研究

区域经济协调发展是实现经济高质量发展的重要前提和内在要求,当前我国正处于由"十三五"规划向"十四五"规划的战略转型机遇期与"两个一百年"奋斗目标的历史交汇期。在新时代高质量发展背景下,我国区域经济发展格局呈现一系列新变化:互联互通、优势互补的区域大循环格局开始形成,数字化、智能化的区域经济空间结构不断优化,建立起全方位、多层次、多元化的高水平区域经济开放格局。笔者认为,新的区域经济格局变化加速了区域经济高质量发展体系的转型和区域经济政策的调整。新时代的区域经济高质量发展坚持以区域总体协调发展与区域相对均衡发展并行,坚持以人民为中心的战略导向、以"四个全面"作为区域战略布局基础。新时代的高质量区域经济政策调整方向表现在建立梯度化层次化的区域创新系统,提升区域数字一体化公共服务系统的供给质量,强化内外互通的区域开放联动机制。     

中国在东亚区域经济一体化中的影响及地位分析

随着经济全球化和区域经一体化浪潮的进一步推进,东亚各国抓住机遇,加强内部经济往来,不但促进自身发展,也极大地促进了东亚区域经济一体化的进程。在东亚区域经济一体化的进程中,中国有着举足轻重的地位。主要从中国参与东亚区域经济一体化的现状入手分析中国对东亚区域经济一体化的影响,在此基础上根据区域领导者理论的三个标准提出了中国将成为东亚区域经济一体化的领导者这一趋势。     

中日自由贸易区的贸易效应研究

区域经济一体化是当今世界经济发展的主要趋势之一.中日作为东亚的两个经济大国,不仅地理上是近邻,语言文化相近,经济上还有很强的互补性,对东亚区域经济、区域政治和区域安全有着巨大影响力.因此,作为东亚地区的核心大国,中日两国在东亚自由贸易区和东亚共同体建设的过程中发挥着举足轻重的作用.在此,我主要从中日贸易这点上,探讨中日FTA的效应.而且4月7日我国与新西兰签定<中华人民共和国政府和新西兰政府自由贸易协定>,是我国首次与发达国家完成自由贸易区(FTA)谈判,这可能为其它发达国家提供一个潜在的框架,提高与发达国家谈判成功率.本文主要探讨了中日若建立自由贸易区对两国贸易产生的影响.     

后危机时代美国应对东亚一体化方式的转型

后危机时代,美国亚洲政策调整的一个重要方面就是应对东亚一体化方式的转型.本文通过分析美国应对东亚一体化新方式的基本内涵、核心特征及其对中国的影响,提出美国应对东亚一体化的新方式是一种“独具特色的多边主义”,具有三个基本特征:一是建立在双边轮毂体系基础上,凸显美国领导地位的有选择的混合性多边主义;二是以实现亚太地区一体化为根本目标的跨地区多边主义;三是有很强的应对中国实力上升色彩的多边主义.本文从中国与东盟关系、中日韩三边合作、中国制定参与东亚一体化政策等三个方面,探讨了该新方式对中国的影响.基本结论是,美国这项政策增加了东亚一体化的复杂性与不确定性,并对中国造成冲击和消极影响.     

论转型时期我国区域政策的目标取向及其调整思路

本文通过对我国现行区域经济政策体系的分析评价、认为随着地区经济发展格局以及区域经济运行机制的相应变化。区域经济政策目标转型十分必要。协调发展、效率与公平兼顾将成为下一阶段我国区域经济政策的主要目标取向。为了实现这种目标转型、重新调整我国的区域经济政策思路势在必然。     

中日自由贸易区的贸易效应研究

区域经济一体化是当今世界经济发展的主要趋势之一。中日作为东亚的两个经济大国，不仅地理上是近邻，语言文化相近，经济上还有很强的互补性，对东亚区域经济、区域政治和区域安全有着巨大影响力。因此。作为东亚地区的核心大国，中日两国在东亚自由贸易区和东亚共同体建设的过程中发挥着举足轻重的作用。在此，我主要从中日贸易这点上，探讨中日FTA的效应。而且4月7日我国与新西兰签定《中华人民共和国政府和新西兰政府自由贸易协定》，是我国首次与发达国家完成自由贸易区（FTA）谈判，这可能为其它发达国家提供一个潜在的框架，提高与发达国家谈判成功率。本文主要探讨了中日若建立自由贸易区对两国贸易产生的影响。     

中国转型的主要内容及发展可能

改革开放以来的中国转型,是指社会主义基本性质延续过程中体制和机制的全方位或整体性变化,涉及经济、政治、社会、文化等领域。文章认为,转型的主要内容分别体现为有导向和被调控的平等权利、能力与道义同一的执政根据、以发展为基础和手段的利益平衡、以及价值导向与行为示范的和谐张力等。转型作为持续的创制过程产生了一系列矛盾关系,比如国内创制与国际认同、政府调控与市场自为、历史根据与发展要求、理论逻辑与现实效益、随时兑现的道义要求与利益平衡的真实标准、价值导向的必须性与行为示范的选择性等。对这些问题的认识和处理,直接关系到转型的性质变化和中国发展的可能方向及途径。     

东亚:经济增长呼唤投资合作

东亚是全球经济增长最快的地区。东亚经济的快速增长,主要是靠投资来推动的,东亚很难在近期根本改变“高投资推动高增长”的经济发展方式。为确保东亚经济持续、快速增长,必须通过区域投资合作,进一步改善东亚投资环境,以促进东亚投资的持续增长。一、东亚经济:高投资促成高增长东亚,作为一个整体,在过去很长时间一直是全球经济增长业绩最好的地区。1973—2003年30年间,全球实际G D P增长率平均为3.5%左右,而东亚则整整高出5个百分点,达到8.5%。金融危机曾一度给东亚经济造成巨大破坏,破坏最重的印尼、泰国、马来西亚和韩国,在1998年曾分…     

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?     

崛起与转型的政治经济学：基于中国的经验研究

当前我国滥觞于内生性能源、资源的刚性约束和外源性的政治竞争与安全压力,国际社会潜在的丛林竞争规则,大国兴衰沉浮的历史经验警示,和平崛起战略的顺利实现与否势必首先寄望于国内市场经济导向型改革与体制转型战略的成败。为增长而竞争的财政分权和晋升激励成为中国政府推动经济增长的动力源泉,它有助于增进转型初期的经济增长和资源配置。在晚近荣辱浮沉的历史湍流中,在沉淀了师从苏俄与欧美发展模式的喧嚣之后,必须注意防范现有自由资本主义发展模式的制度性痼疾。中国的体制改革和宪政转型不能是邯郸学步式的凌空虚蹈,考量东亚的国家规模、社会传统与发展共性,权衡中国历史与现实的经济、制度、文化与意识形态,运用法治规则一市场机制,培育柔性威权一善治和谐社会的国家也许是较为现实的理性选择。     

Is East Asia an optimum currency area?

This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to an alternative exchange rate arrangement (a monetary union) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate stability and credibility in the region. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic disturbances of the East Asian economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). We extend the existing literature by improving the methodology of assessing the symmetry shocks in evaluating the suitability of a common currency area in the East Asian economies employing the Bayesian State-Space Based approach. We consider a model of an economy in which the output is influenced by global, regional and country-specific shocks. The importance of a common regional shock would provide a case for a regional common currency. This model allows us to examine regional and country-specific cycles simultaneously with the world business cycle. The importance of the shocks decomposition is that studying a subset of countries can lead one to believe that observed co-movement is particular to that subset of countries when it in fact is common to a much larger group of countries. In addition, the understanding of the sources of international economic fluctuations is important for making policy decisions. The falling share of country specific factor and the rising role of region factor indicate that East Asia has become increasingly favorable for a monetary union. However, the share of country-specific factor that is still significant implies that it could be costly to renounce individual currencies to advance into a monetary union in East Asia.     

东湖高新区科技创新国际化发展研究

随着经济全球化的深入发展,基于国际化视野进行创新政策、体制和创新体系改革的需求日益迫切。科技创新国际化已成为推动企业自主创新能力发展、经济结构调整与产业转型升级的一项关键举措,对于推动地区经济发展具有重要战略意义。对东湖高新区科技创新国际化现状进行了分析,研究了东湖高新区科技创新国际化优势以及存在的问题,提出依据政策资源、区内资源、人力和金融优势,通过引进国际化海外人才、营造科技创新环境、加大科技投融资建设和完善国际化政务服务体系等措施,实现东湖高新区科技创新国际化发展。     

Environmental rationalities and the development state in East Asia: Prospects for a sustainability transition

This paper reviews what is known about recent trends in environmental governance among the newly industrializing countries of East Asia and the implications of these developments for a sustainability transition within the region. The conceptual starting point for the review is research that examines sustainability transitions within the framework of a multi-level perspective on system innovation. One of the challenges presented by this framework is that of understanding how existing political economies and governance structures promote stability or change in socio-technical regimes. By socio-technical regimes we mean the predominant organizational, social and technological configurations through which societal needs are constituted and met. In the case of the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing economies of East Asia, the trajectory of socio-technical regimes will have profound consequences for local, regional and global environments. Our review of trends in environmental governance as they relate to socio-technical regimes within the region traces a pattern of initial efforts to strengthen environmental regulatory regimes very much along the lines of the policy models of OECD economies. The degree to which these initial efforts have taken root varies from country to country in the region. What is beginning to emerge in several countries within the region, however, are a variety of policy and institutional innovations that hold promise for opening up spaces for change in socio-technical regimes, and for creating opportunities for new pathways of industrialization and urbanization to take hold that are less pollution, materials and energy-intensive.     

国际产业转移与新兴市场经济国家的外资引进：中越两国的比较

经济全球化正在导致国际产业分工新格局的形成。廉价的劳动力成本优势和优越的区位优势,使东亚和东南亚成为了制造业国际转移的最大承接地。中国和越南抓住了这一机遇,充分利用要素禀赋优势积极吸引外国直接投资,促进了本国的经济发展。尽管中越两国在部分劳动密集型产业领域存在着招商引资和出口产品的竞争,但由于中国经济的整体发展水平和发展阶段要领先于越南,因此,现阶段越南还难以在整体上对中国的引进外资和出口市场构成强有力的挑战。如果说,未来一个阶段越南还有必要继续通过数量扩张型战略来鼓励尽可能多的外国直接投资,那么对于中国来说,随着资源禀赋和经济环境的新变化,引进外资战略正在实现从数量驱动型向效益和创新驱动型的转变。     

亚洲石油大陆桥建设设想

本文提出了关于建设亚洲石油大陆桥设想的国际意义,以及我国参与建设的必要性,并构建了亚州石油大陆桥的基本框架,最后提出中国应采取的主要对策和措施.     

Closer Economic Relations with East Asia?

This paper examines Australia's economic links with East Asia and the policy implications of these links. The main issue is whether Australia should join the regional trading arrangements with East Asian countries that have been proposed. It examines the factors which determine the share of East Asia in Australian exports. One of these, the country bias factor, is threatened by proposed regional trading arrangements which might exclude Australia. After considering the costs of exclusion, the paper concludes that Australia should consider developing new bilateral or regional trade arrangements with countries in East Asia.     

Unfinished Business

Abstract This article is about three phases in Australian trade policy: protectionism, unilateral liberalisation, and participation in regional trade liberalisation. Australia used to have one of the most protected economies in the world. The last dozen years have seen a radical transformation of Australian economic policy: Australia is in the process of becoming one of the most open economies in the world. The last five-to-ten years have also seen a related transformation of Australian foreign economic policy. This policy is now centrally concerned with promoting the process of international economic integration within the Asian region; particularly through the APEC process. Should Australia be pursuing ‘open regionalism’ in the Pacific? or promoting an Asia Pacific trading bloc? or concentrating on its own unilateral trade liberalisation? or using its energy to press for global liberalisation through the GATT? I argue that there remains a deep contradiction in the APEC process; that ‘open regionalism’ is in Australia's interests, and that the critical test of Australia's conversion to liberalisation will come in this third phase, in the future answers that it gives to these questions.