The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview

After being excluded from world capital markets during the debtcrisis, many developing countries have experienced large capitalinflows during the past five years. The challenges that theseinflows pose for domestic policy in recipient countries havegenerated a substantial literature. This article presents anoverview of that literature, describing the characteristicsof the new inflows, analyzing the policy issues they raise,assessing their causes and likely sustainability, and evaluatingpotential policy responses. The desirable policy response istied to characteristics of the flows themselves as well as tothe characteristics of the recipient economy.     

INCOMPLETE MARKETS AND COMMODITY-LINKED FINANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This article provides a framework for appraising new financialinstruments and evaluating the extent to which they can helpalleviate problems of incomplete credit markets and contingentclaims markets in developing countries. Although the issuesinvolved apply to any new financial instrument, we give particularattention to commodity-linked securities because many developingcountries specialize in producing a handful of primary commoditiesand are therefore exposed to substantial commodity price risks.The article looks at the supply of, demand for, and pricingof commodity-linked securities and discusses some issues thataffect their use by developing countries: their special legalstatus as sovereign debt; their feasibility (since to becometruly effective they will require liquid secondary markets);and the construction of an optimal portfolio of external debtobligations. It also discusses the potential for new financialinstruments—particularly commodity-linked securities—asa tool for risk management in developing countries.      

基于信号传递博弈的融资租赁市场均衡分析

融资租赁作为一种新的金融工具,已被诸多经济发达的国家普遍采用,并成为其金融市场的重要组成部分。在我国中小企业融资难的情况下,融资租赁也不失为中小企业融资的一种可供选择的方式。本文借鉴斯宾塞劳动力市场信号传递模型,构建一个符合我国中小企业融资市场实际状况的融资租赁市场调控模型。研究结果表明:融资租赁市场的均衡既取决于承租方的装裱成本,也取决于不同类型承租方的租金差异、低营运能力承租方的项目投入的成功率及低营运能力承租方的信用程度(即履约率)。     

Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980–1995

The rapid expansion of organized equity exchanges in both emerging and developed markets has prompted policymakers to raise important questions about their macroeconomic impact, yet the need to focus on recent data poses implementation difficulties for econometric studies of dynamic interactions between stock markets and economic performance in individual countries. This paper overcomes some of these difficulties by applying recent developments in the analysis of panels with a small time dimension to estimate vector autoregressions for a set of 47 countries with annual data for 1980–1995. After describing recent theories on the role of stock markets in growth and considering a pure cross-sectional empirical approach, our panel VARs show leading roles for stock market liquidity and the intensity of activity in traditional financial intermediaries on per capita output. The findings underscore the potential gains associated with developing deep and liquid financial markets in an increasingly global economy.     

An International Perspective for Mortgage Market Reform

The United States and certain European countries (e.g., Ireland and Spain) have recently experienced serious distress in their residential mortgage markets. Public policy has responded with interventions to limit the deadweight costs of mortgage foreclosures, but with limited success. There are also open questions with respect to long‐term reforms in mortgage market structures. In this paper, I make use of the important differences that exist between U.S. and European mortgage markets to help identify those aspects of residential mortgage markets that are most in need of reform.     

行业类别与增值税纳税义务人选择: 来自中小企业的经验证据

从国际比较上看，无论发达国家、新兴工业国家，还是发展中国家，都存在大量且在经济发展中扮演了重要角色的中小企业，研究中小企业财务报告的行为特征十分必要。本文通过对中小企业的行业类别与增值税纳税义务人选择行为进行实证分析后发现，税收法规是影响中小企业会计政策选择的关键因素；减低税负是规范中小企业财务报告行为的有效途径之一。     

Is There a Case for Industrial Policy? A Critical Survey

What are the underlying rationales for industrial policy? Doesempirical evidence support the use of industrial policy forcorrecting market failures that plague the process of industrialization?This article addresses these questions through a critical surveyof the analytical literature on industrial policy. It also reviewssome recent industry successes and argues that public interventionshave played only a limited role. Moreover, the recent ascendanceand dominance of international production networks in the sectorsin which developing countries once had considerable successimplies a further limitation on the potential role of industrialpolicies as traditionally understood. Overall, there appearsto be little empirical support for an activist government policyeven though market failures exist that can, in principle, justifythe use of industrial policy.      

On the intensity of liquidity spillovers in the Eurozone

This paper seeks to elucidate dimensions and directions of the liquidity spillover phenomenon in the Eurozone equity markets during the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. The research examines questions relevant to the shift-contagion in the Eurozone countries during the time of crisis, as well as the role of a liquidity channel of transmission relaying external shocks among those countries. The findings document the existence of non-linearities in the transmission mechanisms across selected markets; we use a structural model introduced by Favero and Giavazzi (2002) while controlling for interdependence. The result is in line with the crisis-contingent theories that suggest transmission of shocks through an endogenous liquidity channel. Furthermore, we notice a pattern of liquidity spillover from small markets to the German, French, Italian and UK markets even after controlling for monetary policy shocks, and we confirm the persistence of liquidity co-movements, supporting the argument that financial contagion in the Eurozone market was transmitted and intensified via the liquidity channel.     

案例研究:我国中小企业基于不同目的财务报告行为透视

从国际比较上看,无论发达国家、新兴工业国家,还是发展中国家,都存在大量且在经济发展中扮演了重要角色的中小企业,但遗憾的是,会计界尚缺乏对中小企业财务报告行为特征的系统性研究。基于契约成本理论的三大实证会计假设之一的“政治成本”假设认为,企业规模越大,越有动机降低利润。本文运用案例分析方法对其进行验证,试图据此对我国中小企业基于不同目的的财务报告行为特征加以描述,以裨益于相关课题的进一步研究。     

Land Tenure and Property Rights: Theory and Implications for Development Policy

This article explores the nature of property rights systems,their evolution, and their effect on resource allocation. Itis argued that certain institutional arrangements for land rightshave evolved in order to reduce uncertainty and increase efficiencyin credit as well as in land markets. Of particular relevanceto developing countries, the article emphasizes the contributionof public sector infrastructure to effective land rights systems.An appendix to the article presents a formal model analyzingthe effects of security of land rights on land prices, the intensityof cultivation, and the use of credit. Empirical evidence fromThailand supports several of the propositions derived from themodel.     

Does green governance affect financing constraints? Evidence from China’s heavily polluting enterprises

Given the increasing focus on global sustainable development, many enterprises in developing countries such as China participate in green governance and scale up their green investment; however, many enterprises still experience financing difficulties. Our study investigates whether green governance can mitigate corporate financing constraints. Using a sample of Chinese, A-share listed, high-pollution enterprises from 2013 to 2018, we find that corporate green governance practices, including environmental performance and information disclosure, ease corporate financing constraints. This effect is pronounced in areas with high levels of financial development and for state-owned enterprises. This paper not only proposes a channel for alleviating enterprises’ financing constraints but also reveals the importance of industrial transformation and emissions reduction for energy-intensive industries in emerging markets.     

PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Dual exchange rates and black markets for foreign exchange arecommon in developing countries, and a body of evidence is beginningto emerge on the effects that such parallel foreign exchangesystems have on macro-economic performance. This article presentsa simple typology of parallel systems, discusses their emergence,and looks at why countries prefer these arrangements to themain alternatives. The article examines the ability of parallelmarkets to insulate international reserves and domestic pricesfrom shocks to the balance of payments. Drawing on the findingsfrom eight detailed case studies, the authors discuss the determinationof the parallel premium in the short and long terms, the relationshipbetween the premium and illegal transactions, and the fiscaleffects of parallel rates. They compare the experiences of countriesthat have attempted to unify their foreign exchange marketsand discuss the implications for policy alternatives.      

Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms

In many developing countries with emerging stock markets, banksare fearful of stock market development because they think thatstock markets will reduce the volume of their business. Thisarticle empirically analyzes the effects of stock market developmenton firms' financing choices using data from thirty developingand industrial countries from 1980 to 1991. The results implythat initial improvements in the functioning of a developingstock market produce a higher debt-equity ratio for firms andthus more business for banks. In stock markets that are alreadydeveloped, further development leads to a substitution of equityfor debt financing. By contrast, in developing stock markets,large firms become more levered as the stock market develops,whereas small firms do not appear to be significantly affectedby stock market development.     

U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and International Securitized Real Estate Markets

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy surprises on securitized real estate markets in 18 countries. The policy surprises are measured by both the surprise changes to the target federal funds rate (the target factor) and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor). The results show that most international securitized real estate markets have significantly positive responses to surprise decrease in current or future expected federal funds rates, though such responses vary greatly across countries. Also, while the U.S. securitized real estate market reacts mainly to the target factor, foreign securitized real estate markets react to the path factor. Furthermore, we find that the cross-country variation in the response to the target factor is correlated with the country’s exchange rate regime and its degree of real economic and particularly financial integration, while the cross-country variation in the response to the path factor is mainly related to the country’s degree of financial integration.     

The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the tail risks of stock markets between U.S. and Japan

Facing the economic downturn, the central bank of U.S. and Japan adopts the unconventional monetary policy to stimulate their economy. This paper studies the quantitative easing policy effectiveness via the tail risks of stock markets in the U.S., Japan and the other 74 countries. Although the stock markets of U.S. and Japan reveals the announcement-day effects of the QE policy, this study finds an asymmetric tail risk of return distribution on the QE policy effect. The post-period right-tail and left-tail risks of the stock markets are significantly smaller and larger than that of the pre-period of the QE programs, respectively. This implies that the tail risks of stock returns have dissimilar interdependence with the QE programs. Furthermore, the geographical dependence is the major factor that determines the contagion of stock market, and the fragility of foreign stock market caused by the US QE policy is larger than that of the Japan.     

“走出去”对企业融资约束的影响——基于“一带一路”倡议准自然实验的证据

本文基于"一带一路"倡议这一准自然实验,使用双重差分法,以中国2007-2017年A股上市企业为样本,实证检验了"走出去"对企业融资约束的影响。研究发现,参与"一带一路"倡议的企业与未参与的企业相比,融资约束水平有所上升。该效应对处于重点对接省份的参与企业可能更为明显。与国有企业相比,参与"一带一路"倡议的私人企业的融资约束有所上升,而且处在重点对接行业和省份的参与"一带一路"倡议的民营企业融资约束更有可能上升。从机制上看,由于观察周期尚短和其它因素的限制,企业参与"一带一路"倡议以后,其在信贷资源获取、利润率和生产率等方面还未体现出优势来。从政策来讲,为更好地支持国家的"一带一路"倡议,需要进一步拓宽思路对企业形成更有效的金融支持,以提高"一带一路"建设的可持续性。     

The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion

We analyze the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis to 415 country‐industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the United States and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been substantial contagion from domestic markets to individual domestic portfolios, with its severity inversely related to the quality of countries’ economic fundamentals. This confirms the “wake‐up call” hypothesis, with markets focusing more on country‐specific characteristics during the crisis.     

ISO system implementation in small and medium companies from new EU member countries: A tool of managerial and marketing benefits development

The article analyses processes of ISO quality system implementation in small and medium size companies in the new EU member countries. Being a managerial standard by its definition, ISO is important for companies not only in improving their management system an upgrading/sustaining quality of the output. As an internationally recognised and certificated system, ISO plays a significant role in developing international partnerships and developing overall competitiveness of enterprises. This is especially important for SMEs from new EU member-states, since they are relatively unknown to their international counterparts. Having a certified ISO system, such enterprises can speed-up development of partnerships and joining of international supply chains. This strongly influences motivations of ISO system implementation.On the basis of data that covers 8 years period in three countries, author argues that motivations to implement ISO system significantly differ from the benefits that are experienced after its implementation. Marketing and sales arguments play role of the main motivators before ISO system implementation, while managerial benefits are mainly stated as the most important after the system is implemented. The change of opinions is generated by the SME managers’ personal experience, which fills the gap between expectations and realities.     

The end of corporate imperialism

As they search for growth, multinational corporations will have no choice but to compete in the big emerging markets of China, India, Indonesia, and Brazil. But while it is still common to question how such corporations will change life in those markets, Western executives would be smart to turn the question around and ask how multinationals themselves will be transformed by these markets. To be successful, MNCs will have to rethink every element of their business models, the authors assert in this seminal HBR article from 1998. During the first wave of market entry in the 1980s, multinationals operated with what might be termed an imperialist mind-set, assuming that the emerging markets would merely be new markets for their old products. But this mind-set limited their success: What is truly big and emerging in countries like China and India is a new consumer base comprising hundreds of millions of people. To tap into this huge opportunity, MNCs need to ask themselves five basic questions: Who is in the emerging middle class in these countries? How do the distribution networks operate? What mix of local and global leadership do you need to foster business opportunities? Should you adopt a consistent strategy for all of your business units within one country? Should you take on local partners? The transformation that multinational corporations must undergo is not cosmetic--simply developing greater sensitivity to local cultures will not do the trick, the authors say. To compete in the big emerging markets, multinationals must reconfigure their resources, rethink their cost structures, redesign their product development processes, and challenge their assumptions about who their top-level managers should be.     

Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops

This article investigates the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on output growth during sudden-stop balance of payments crisis in emerging markets and developing countries. Sudden stops in capital flows, and subsequent deep recessions, are a frequent occurrence in these countries but there is no professional consensus, and little systematic empirical evidence, shedding light on the macroeconomic policy mix most likely to limit output losses during these episodes. To address this issue, we investigate 83 sudden-stop crisis in 66 countries using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden stops. We measure the marginal effects of policy on output losses, and find strong evidence that monetary tightening (rise in the discount rate or unsterilized rise in international reserves) and discretionary fiscal contraction are significantly correlated with larger output losses following a sudden stop. Fiscal expansion is associated with smaller output losses following a sudden stop, but monetary expansion has no discernable effect. The macroeconomic policy mix associated with the least output loss during a sudden-stop financial crisis is a discretionary fiscal expansion combined with a neutral monetary policy.