Punishment and the potency of group selection

It is known that altruism can be sustained in an evolving population by a process of group selection. There is also existing research on the role that punishment can play in inducing selfish agents to behave more co-operatively or in preventing selfish agents from evolving, and the limitations upon this mechanism. This paper embeds a simple model of a punishment system within an indirect cultural evolution framework. The use of punishment is shown to reduce the potency of the group selection mechanism, and thus the level of evolved altruism. This presents a novel reason why the use of punishment may have negative dynamic welfare implications.     

Altruism,fertility, and the value of children: Health policy evaluation and intergenerational welfare

This paper accounts for the value of children and future generations in the evaluation of health policies. This is achieved through the incorporation of altruism and fertility in a “value of life” type of framework. We are able to express adults' willingness to pay for changes in child mortality and also to incorporate the welfare of future generations in the evaluation of current policies. Our model clarifies a series of puzzles from the literature on the “value of life” and on intergenerational welfare comparisons. We show that, by incorporating altruism and fertility into the analysis of the recent U.S. experience, the estimated welfare gain of a young adult from reductions in mortality easily doubles.     

A theory of gender differences in parental altruism

Abstract.  We offer a theory of gender differences in parental altruism based on the asymmetry that female fertility is constrained but male fertility is relatively unconstrained. Modelling human preferences as having been shaped during the Pleistocene, we derive evolutionarily stable, co‐evolved male and female preferences for altruism towards one's children. We demonstrate that there would be gender differences in parental altruism that depend on the relative abundance or scarcity of resources and the importance and substitutability of parental inputs in promoting the survival of offspring. The results point to greater altruism in females, under plausible conditions. JEL Classification: D64, J16, P46     

Saving,fertility and public policy in an overlapping generations small open economy

Motivated by the recent increase of public debt experienced by many developed countries, we develop an OLG model to provide the fiscal policies needed for any public debt level to be sustainable in steady state and the consequences that such policies produce on saving and fertility in a small open economy. Our main finding is that a reduction of public debt (an event currently publicly debated) needs tax adjustments that eventually will be detrimental for both fertility and saving under a low-interest-rate regime (possibly similar to the current world regime), with opposite transitional effects on fertility and saving. On the contrary, the needed fiscal adjustments will eventually increase saving and fertility under a high-interest-rate regime, with opposite transitional effects on fertility and saving. Besides providing clear-cut policy implications, our analysis offers possible testable implications concerning the pattern of fertility, taxes and public debt observed in many developed economies.     

TOUGH LOVE AND INTERGENERATIONAL ALTRUISM*

This article develops and studies a tough love model of intergenerational altruism. We model tough love by modifying the Barro‐Becker standard altruism model in two ways. First, the child’s discount factor is endogenously determined, so lower childhood consumption leads to a higher discount factor later in life. Second, the parent evaluates the child’s lifetime utility with a constant high discount factor. Our model predicts that parental transfers will fall when the child’s discount factor falls. This is in contrast with the standard altruism model, which predicts that parental transfers are independent of exogenous changes in the child’s discount factor.     

The ‘new economics’ and policies for financial stability

The purpose of this paper is to consider the policy implications of the ‘new economics’. The focus will be on financial stability as an objective of policy within a more general framework of policies. The theoretical framework upon which we base our policy conclusions is summarised to provide understandings of the operation of the economy and the need for policy interventions, before the main policy implications, the focus of this paper, are discussed. In doing so we argue that an important policy dimension, which has been ignored in the past, is financial stability, a new focus of monetary policy amongst other implications. The theoretical framework upon which we base our policy conclusions tries to avoid the problems encountered by the previously dominant paradigm ‘New Consensus in Macroeconomics’. It represents in this sense ‘new thinking in economics’.     

The old-age security hypothesis revisited

"Children's altruism toward parents is allowed in a two-overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility. Parents raise children because, when retired, they expect gifts from their children who are essentially a capital good. Individuals' behavior between generations is examined by analyzing a Nash equilibrium, which is then compared with a social planner's optimal allocation. The pay-as-you-go public pension program is viewed as the optimal gifts from the optimal allocation when the latter is implemented. The effect on fertility of the introduction of a capital market is also analyzed. The validity of the old-age security hypothesis is shown to depend on the parameters of utility and cost functions."     

Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: theory,and estimates for Germany,Italy, UK and USA

This study uses new theories of capital accumulation and fertility in a comparative framework to test predictions with time-series data for Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US. The exogenous-fertility model is based on models of Barro and Becker. The endogenous-fertility models are based on models of Veall and Nishimura and Zhang. It is assumed that life cycle periods are youth, middle age, and old age. Several theoretical frameworks are tested with endogenous and exogenous fertility and altruism and nonaltruism. Data are obtained during 1950-90. Dependent variables are the total lifetime fertility rate and real per capita household savings. Explanatory variables include social security, the real social security deficit per capita, the real rate of interest, the real per capita disposable income, the average male real wage rate, the average female real wage rate, and the real child benefit rate. The explanatory variables are individually graphed to show differences by country over time. Findings suggest that fertility is endogenous in a nonaltruistic model. The only model not rejected by the data was the model in which fertility and intergenerational transfers were explained by nonaltruistic concerns. Fertility was positively affected by the male wage rate in all countries. Fertility was negatively affected by the female wage rate in all countries. Disposable income was insignificant in the UK and Germany and positive and significant in Italy and the US. The interest rate was significant in only 1 model. Child benefits had a positive and significant effect on fertility in the UK. In savings models, disposable income was significant and positive, and child benefits and wage rates were insignificant. Social security coverage had a negative effect on fertility and a positive effect on savings, except in Germany. Findings indicate that saving and fertility are jointly determined.     

Intergenerational transfers,demographic transition,and altruism: Problems in developing Asia

This paper develops a three‐period overlapping‐generations model where middle‐aged agents care about not only their own lifetime utility but also their old parents' and children's well‐being. The doubly altruistic agents choose amounts of intergenerational transfers to their old parents and children as well as private savings. The government specifies amounts of public transfers from working adults to the dependents. The model also takes the effects of demographic transition on the burdens of supporting the elderly and children into account. Using 23 countries' data from the National Transfer Accounts (NTA ), we estimate the degrees of filial and parental altruism and adjust them for their respective life expectancy and fertility rates. The findings suggest that people in developing countries are more parentally altruistic than those in developed ones while the adjusted degree of filial altruism tends to be low in developing Asia. Our welfare analyses reveal that the developing Asian countries must introduce more comprehensive public welfare programs for the elderly to maximize social welfare. Moreover, their low adjusted degree of filial altruism may trap the developing Asian countries at the low levels of public old‐age support and social welfare as the further demographic transition ensues.     

School Education,Learning‐by‐Doing,and Fertility in Economic Development

We examine the policy implications of relaxing constraints on the educational choice of individuals for economic development. Distinguishing human capital accumulation through schooling and through learning‐by‐doing and knowledge spillovers, we show that in the earlier stages of development, mitigating and eventually eliminating constraints on school education would be necessary for even further economic development. Expanded school education increases the income of individuals and encourages physical capital accumulation, which enlarges productive knowledge through implementation and operations. The increased labor productivity thus boosts economic growth. In the process, the fertility rate will decline because of the increased education cost per child.     

Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.     

Migration decisions, expected remittances, and altruism

We investigate the effects of altruism on migration decisions by the potential migrant as well as the effects of altruism on remittances by the migrant to clarify how altruism affects remittances that the household in the home country will receive, i.e., expected remittances. Previous studies did not pay adequate attention to the effects of altruism on migration decisions of the potential migrant when examining the effects of altruism on remittances that will be sent from aboard. We find that if migration does not incur any costs, the potential migrant always migrates, and altruism increases expected remittances monotonically. On the other hand, if migration incurs costs, the potential migrant does not necessarily migrate, and the potential migrant with a higher degree of altruism is less likely to migrate. As a result, with migration costs, altruism may decrease expected remittances. Therefore, altruism does not increase expected remittances monotonically. Our results falsify the usual assumption of monotonicity regarding the effects of altruism on remittances.     

Increases in trust and altruism from partner selection: Experimental evidence

This paper examines how selection affects trust and altruism in a Trust and Modified Dictator Game. Past Trust and Dictator game experiments not allowing partner selection show substantially more trust and altruism than equilibrium predicts. We predict partner selection will cause sorting in which behavior across partner types without selection will be positively correlated with partner choice. This selection pattern will cause trust and altruism to be higher with selection and the increase will be proportional to a maximum possible gain. We find selection has all these effects. We also find greater gains in the Trust than Modified Dictator game consistent with larger possible gains in the Trust game. The results imply that theories ignoring selection will underestimate trust and altruism in markets with selection.     

Fertility,human capital and the wealth of families

Summary An overlapping generations model with parental altruism is examined. The existence of the optimal value function in a model with an endogenous discount rate is proven. Two development regimes are produced: a high fertility, low income and no growth steady state, and a perpetual growth equilibrium with low fertility and rising income.This paper is adapted from my dissertation. I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee for helpful comments and suggestions, Messrs, Gary S. Becker, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Kevin M. Murphy and Sherwin Rosen. I'd like to thank Brooks Pierce, Paul Romer, Ken Judd, Beth Ingram, Ed Prescott and Fernando Alvarez. I also thank the workshop participants of the University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, University of Toronto, University of Rochester, University of Washington, Penn State University, University at Buffalo, SUNY, Columbia University and University of Iowa.     

Physiological constraints and the transition to growth: implications for comparative development

It is a well known fact that economic development and distance to the equator are positively correlated variables in the world today. It is perhaps less well known that as recently as 1500 C.E. it was the other way around. The present paper provides a theory of why the ‘latitude gradient’ changed sign in the course of the last half millennium. In particular, we develop a dynamic model of economic and physiological development in which households decide upon the number and nutrition of their offspring. In this setting we demonstrate that relatively high metabolic costs of fertility, which may have emerged due to positive selection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator, would work to stifle economic development during pre-industrial times, yet allow for an early onset of sustained growth. As a result, the theory suggests a reversal of fortune whereby economic activity gradually shifts away from the equator in the process of long-term economic development. Our empirical results give supporting evidence for our hypothesis.

     

Analyzing motives for money-transfers within families: the role of transfers for education

We present a theoretical framework to examine whether altruism or exchange is the motive for money-transfers within families. In our theoretical models, transfers for education are incorporated as an additional family transfer that is determined before money-transfers are decided. These models lead to testable implications about the relationship between transfers for education and money-transfers. Various econometric models are derived and estimated with PSID data on inter-vivos transfers and bequests. The empirical evidence is compatible with both altruism or exchange, but provides information about how these motivations work. The comparison between the empirical distribution of money-transfers and the distributions induced by our econometric models shows that these models are suitable.     

Incentives and the Sorting of Altruistic Agents into Street‐Level Bureaucracies*

Many street‐level bureaucrats have the dual task of helping some clients, while sanctioning others. We develop a model of a street‐level bureaucracy, and we study the implications of its personnel policy on the self‐selection and allocation decisions of agents who differ in altruism towards clients. When bureaucrats are paid flat wages, they do not sanction, and the most altruistic types sort into bureaucracy. Pay‐for‐performance induces some bureaucrats to sanction, but it necessitates an increase in compensation, which can result in sorting from the top and bottom of the altruism distribution. We also explain why street‐level bureaucrats often experience an overload of clients.     

Demographic links to savings in life cycle models: identification of issues for LDCs

The author considers the potential for a link between the recent pattern of demographic transition and intertemporal and inter-country variations in savings rates. Fertility, infant mortality, life expectancy, and levels of female and child labor force participation are among the various demographic factors which affect national savings rates through their effects upon age structure, age-specific individual savings behavior, and their general equilibrium effects upon interest rates, wage rates, and income distribution. The author establishes a simple discrete time life cycle model of savings, explains the issues related to age structure, and discusses the effect of age-specific savings functions, the general equilibrium effects of demographic factors, the effects of life expectancies and child mortalities, and the nature of social security coverages in less developed countries, as well as issues which are especially important for less developed countries. A new strategy for empirically evaluating demographic policies is proposed. That is, one can estimate the age profile of earnings, saving and fertility rates from household survey data. The life tables can then be used to compute the aggregate savings rate and population size. Any demographic policy which affects the fertility rate, life expectancy, and investment in the quality of children will change the aggregate saving and population growth rates. These two aggregate effects could be compared to evaluate demographic policies. The author stresses, however, that changes in different demographic factors will have different short-run and long-run effects upon the savings rate which will also depend upon whether such changes are transitory or permanent.     

It pays to do good,but not to do more good than it pays: A note on the survival of altruism

Recently Becker and Hirshleifer have attempted to explain the survival of altruism. Altruism ‘pays’ in their framework because it permits mutual cooperation or exchange to take place. This paper shows that these arguments are invalid. This case is that in any environment where altruism pays there is always an egoistic strategy called cooperation egoism — which yields an even higher return. In equilibrium, this will be anticipated so that, while altruism may pay off in a disequilibrium situation, in equilibrium egoism and not altruism has survival value.     

Labor market effects of export processing zones in the presence of unemployment

When foreign firms motivated by higher profits engage in off-shore production activities of unemployment ridden host countries, concerns increase about the possibility of exploitation of local workers. However, using a two good two factor model this paper shows that foreign firms’ engagement under the scenario actually improves the host country's structure of wages, skill composition, employment level and wage inequality which cannot be achieved under full employment in the host countries. This paper thus presents a mechanism that explains the effects of export processing zones observed in most of the transitional economies of the world. Results have practical implications for traditional structural changes expected for these economies. Although foreign firms come to earn profits, it is possible for host country workers to take a part of the rent away from the foreign firms as they are doing currently in different parts of the world.