Information effects of loan portfolio quality on bank value

In this paper, the authors test whether loan-loss reserve announcements by individual commercial banks can have contagion effects on the banking industry. It is found that increased loan-loss reserves related to LDC debt do not have an effect on other banks. However, increased loan-loss reserves related to bad real estate loans elicited a negative share price response at other banks. The signal from a loss reserve adjustment is dependent on the reason for the adjustment. While LDC debt problems were restricted to money center banks and were well publicized, real estate loan problems can be contagious throughout the industry. Consequently, signals of real estate loan problems at some banks can cause a reduced valuation of other banks.     

Cyclicality in losses on bank loans

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables. These links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics. During downturns, the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases, but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change. although loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior, the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds, albeit around a lower average level. This variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios.     

Is the secondary loan market valuable to borrowers?

In recent years, the secondary loan market has developed into an over-the-counter market where loans are not only sold but also subsequently traded. This shift away from traditional banking is altering the business of lending. Loan sales are valuable to banks because they free up capital, generate fee-based income and facilitate risk management; but they may be costly to borrowers because they negatively affect bank monitoring incentives. In this paper, however, we argue that there is another potential benefit to borrowers from loan sales. Borrowers with trading loans, in particular those with liquid loans, may “demand” a share of bank benefits from loan sales when they take out new loans as it will be easier for banks to sell these loans afterwards. We investigate this potential benefit of the secondary loan market by comparing the interest rates borrowers pay before their loans start to trade with the interest rates they pay on loans originated post-trading. Our results show that, on average, borrowers pay higher spreads on the loans they take out after the onset of trading on their loans. Importantly, our results also show that borrowers with liquid trading loans are able to borrow at lower interest rates after the onset of trading on their loans. Thus, while the banks’ decision to sell loans may initially impose a cost on borrowers, those whose loans enter the secondary loan market and become liquid benefit from an interest rate discount on their subsequent loans.     

Stock price reactions to increases in loan-loss reserves: A broader perspective

Loan loss reserves (LLR) provide a cushion to absorb operating losses. Several studies have focused on the market's reaction to increases in LLR in response to a specific event related to the international debt crisis. This study takes a broader view of LLR by examining, over a six year period, the market's reaction to announcements of increases to LLR that are above the expected annual reserve and that are a result of factors other than the international debt crisis. We find a negative reaction in the market, indicating that the negative signal from identifying unanticipated risk in the loan portfolio appears to dominate the positive cash flow effects.     

Collateral,loan guarantees,and the lenders’ incentives to resolve financial distress

This paper proposes that the timing for when collateral is pledged will affect the lenders’ incentives to resolve financial distress. It demonstrates that, if the amount of collateral pledged in a loan contract exceeds a critical value, the borrower's project may be inefficiently liquidated once he becomes financially distressed. It also shows that a fairly priced loan guarantee provided by a third party can partially alleviate this inefficient liquidation problem. This paper predicts that riskier borrowers will pledge more collateral, which is consistent with the empirical findings of Berger and Udell [Berger, A. N., & Udell, G. F. (1990). Collateral, loan quality, and bank risk. Journal of Monetary Economics, 25, 21–42] and Leeth and Scott [Leeth, J. D., & Scott, J. A. (1989). The incidence of secured debt: evidence from the small business community. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24, 379–394].     

Measuring Credit Risk of a Bank's Corporate Loan Portfolio Using Advanced Internal Ratings Base Approach

Abstract

The use of technical and advanced approaches in the measurement of credit risk of banks' portfolios has nowadays become a very hot issue. The most recent technical report issued by the Basel Committee in May 2003 has concentrated heavily on the measurement of credit risk using either foundation or advanced Internal Ratings Base (IRB) approaches. This empirical research study attempts to measure credit risk of a bank's corporate loan portfolio, including firms from 10 different Turkish sectors. The monthly observations of the total amount of corporate loans and the total amount of corporate loans at default across various sectors are downloaded from the web page of Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) in a period of 1999-2002. This period covers 47 monthly observations since CBT has captured sectoral corporate loans beginning of 1999. Therefore, the observed sectoral default rates are needed to be simulated to obtain a nicely shaped distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is applied for 1,000 times. Based on the simulated default rates, the expected sectoral default rates are computed. Next, a credit quality rating scale is fitted into sectoral default rates distributions. Finally, the sectoral weights in the whole loan portfolio are multiplied by the expected sectoral default rates matrix, considering cross-sectoral correlations to get the total amount of the bank's credit risk and capital requirement. It is assumed that sectoral monthly default rates are a good representative of the default risk of a sample bank's corporate loan portfolio since no publicly available data on any particular bank's corporate loan portfolio composition exists. Nevertheless, this research may be a good application for measuring the credit risk of banks' corporate loan portfolios using advanced IRB approach.     

Loan Loss Provisions by Banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore

This paper studies loan loss disclosures by banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore for the period 1993 through 2000. We find that unexpected loan loss provisions are positively related to bank stock returns and future cash flows. This indicates that Asian bank managers increase loan loss provisions to signal favorable cash flow prospects, and bank investors bid bank stock prices up when unexpected provisions are positive. These results are consistent with those obtained by Wahlen (1994) for US banks. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the loan loss variables. The results indicate that the association between the unexpected loan loss provisions and bank stock returns and future cash flows was significantly lower in the crisis years, relative to the non‐crisis period. Evidently, discretionary loan loss provisions had no signaling value during the crisis. This suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the strategic behavior of Asian bank managers and investors.     

The role of income tax in student loan repayments

West keeps score of the continuing and growing inadequacies of the British student loan scheme to 1998 and shows how an income-contingent loan could better satisfy its aims. He explores a common objection to any form of student loan scheme, that students pay for their university education through progressive income taxes. West shows how this argument falls short, and hence that some form of income contingent loan is required if equity and efficiency are to be satisfied.     

Bank loan commitments and Material Adverse Change clause

As Ergungor (2001) indicated, some critical problems still exist in the valuation of bank loan commitments. One of them is the Material Adverse Change (“MAC”) clause as a contractual discretion that may be exercised by banks. We explain how the MAC clause can affect the value of bank loan commitments in the competitive loan market.     

Credit rationing, race, and the mortgage market

This study applies microdata from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances to evaluate the effects of borrower race and default risk in mortgage lending. The empirical analysis is based on a probit model of whether borrowers obtain FHA or conventional mortgages; the former are fully insured and are characterized by easier downpayment constraints, but are typically more expensive. Hence, households borrowing through the FHA will tend to be credit constrained in the conventional market. Results of the analysis indicate that variables which proxy lender concerns about default risk and cost have an important effect on the type of loan borrowers obtain. Empirical estimates also suggest that minority households are significantly less likely to obtain conventional financing than whites, even after controlling for various proxies of default risk. These results suggest that race effects in mortgage lending may persist for reasons unrelated to borrower default risk.     

论我国商业银行的房贷风险

央行的房贷加息最大的受益者恐怕就是商业银行了，由于房地产贷款大多有房地产资产作为抵押，而且迄今为止房地产信贷的违约率非常低，因此商业银行大都把房地产信贷视为优良的贷款品种，并且都在不遗余力地扩大房地产信贷业务。     

Likelihood based testing for no fractional cointegration

We consider two likelihood ratio tests, the so-called maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, for the null of no cointegration when fractional cointegration is allowed under the alternative, which is a first step to generalize the so-called Johansen’s procedure to the fractional cointegration case. The standard cointegration analysis only considers the assumption that deviations from equilibrium can be integrated of order zero, which is very restrictive in many cases and may imply an important loss of power in the fractional case. We consider the alternative hypotheses with equilibrium deviations that can be mean reverting with order of integration possibly greater than zero. Moreover, the degree of fractional cointegration is not assumed to be known, and the asymptotic null distribution of both tests is found when considering an interval of possible values. The power of the proposed tests under fractional alternatives and size accuracy provided by the asymptotic distribution in finite samples are investigated.     

Applying Game Options in a Loan Exit Model

This study explores market exit decisions of financial institutions into a duopolistic loan in the evaluation concept. A game options approach is used to analyze how uncertainty influences loan decisions. Suppose that the loan market only contains two financial institutions (the leader and follower), and these two roles can be chosen freely. The financial effect for outside shock follows the Poisson downward jump process, and the leader and follower exit the thresholds and are compared to the loan market in the continuous time diffusion process. This study obtains the following results: In the exiting model, the exit costs for the leader are influenced by those of the follower. If the ratio of the leader to follower exit costs is stable, the first-in-first-out or last-in-first-out optimal evaluation models are derived during two financial institutions exiting the loan market.     

浅论武汉市地方重要商品储备

武汉市是华中重镇,全国特大中心城市,在市场经济条件下,健全和完善武汉的重要商品储备,是促进我市农业生产稳定发展,实施中部地区率先崛起的必然要求。文中就武汉市健全、完善重要商品储备的现状、必要性,问题与对策建议进行了阐述。     

客户信用评级系统的经济计量模型检验

客户信用评级系统是银行业为规范授信业务降低贷款风险而采用的内部评级系统,必须考虑评级系统中指标设置的科学性和合理性。本文利用排序多元离散选择模型,结合实际数据,对中国银行的客户信用评级系统进行了检验。检验结果表明,该系统总体可行,但还可以进一步修订完善。     

Why Do African Banks Lend So Little?

We put forward a plausible explanation of African banking sector under‐development in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Using an appropriately modified Industrial Organization model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse selection (a lack of good projects). Applying a dynamic panel estimator to a large sample of African banks, we show that loan defaults are a major factor inhibiting bank lending when institutional quality is low. We also find that once a threshold level of institutional quality has been reached, improvements in the default rate or institutional quality do not matter. This provides support for our theoretical predictions.     

Student loans in developing countries: government versus company loans

Using data from the International Finance Corporation study on private investment in education, Tooley and West give details of two types of international experience with student loans. In particular they look at the government student loan scheme in Thailand and loan schemes offered by various for-profit and nonprofit education companies in Peru, Colombia and India. Difficulties are pointed out with regard to the government scheme, which it may be possible to alleviate under the company schemes.     

Valuation of stock loans with jump risk

A stock loan is a special loan with stocks as collateral, which offers the borrowers the right to redeem the stocks on or before the maturity (Xia and Zhou, 2007, Dai and Xu, 2011). We investigate pricing problems of both infinite- and finite-maturity stock loans under a hyper-exponential jump diffusion model. In the infinite-maturity case, we derive closed-form formulas for stock loan prices and deltas by solving the related optimal stopping problem explicitly. Moreover, we obtain a sufficient and necessary condition under which the optimal stopping time is finite with probability one. In the finite-maturity case, we provide analytical approximations to both stock loan prices and deltas by solving an ordinary integro-differential equation as well as a complicated non-linear system. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the approximation methods for both prices and deltas are accurate, fast, and easy to implement.     

On the determinant of bank loan contracts: The roles of borrowers’ ownership and board structures

Given the worldwide economic importance of bank loan financing, we empirically investigate the roles of borrowers’ ownership and board structure in bank loan terms through a comprehensive dataset, which includes the complete history of individual bank loan contracts for firms publicly listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). We find that firms with smaller deviation in shareholder voting and cash flow rights, larger non-retail shareholding, fewer shares pledged by the board of directors, independent directors, and firms without dual boards are more likely to borrow from banks at lower spread. In addition, good governance practices are also associated with larger loan size or longer loan period, suggesting that banks take into account borrowers’ governance practices when designing loan contracts. This fact is consistent with the agency cost and information risk explanations of Bhojraj and Sengupta (2003). Furthermore, this study uncovers that the beneficial effect of good governance practices on bank loan contracting is more pronounced in borrowers with high leverage and poor rating, which implies that the monitoring role of governance is more crucial in risky firms. Our findings are robust to the various characteristics of firms and loans.     

The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach

This paper analyzes the effect of loan supply shocks on the real economic activity of Pacific Alliance countries using a Time-Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) model which is identified by sign restrictions. Two main results arise from the analysis. First, loan supply shocks have an important impact on real economic activity in all Pacific Alliance countries: about 1% in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, and about 0.5% in Chile. Thus, its contribution to business cycle fluctuations is similar to that of aggregate supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks in both stability and slowdown periods. Second, the power of loan supply shocks to affect economic activity do not remain constant over the time and its evolution across periods is heterogeneous among all Pacific Alliance countries. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the results of the model are robust to different priors specifications and to multiple sets of sign restrictions.