The risk of the sovereign debt default: the Eurozone crisis 2008–2013

We investigate the relationship of the market pricing of sovereign risk to default, through credit default swap (CDS) spreads for 16 Eurozone countries during 2008q1–2013q3. We take into account, through appropriate non-linear generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations the endogeneity problem. We focus on ‘fiscal space’ (DEBT or FISCAL), and the downgrade announcements (DOWN). We find DEBT (FISCAL) to have significant (insignificant) effects on the CDS concave function, as well as, DOWN in a linear one. It has also been confirmed significant pricing discrimination between South and West Euro Area Periphery (SWEAP) and the core Eurozone, highlighting asymmetries discovered either by the respective size of estimated DEBT coefficients or by the significant effects of DOWN that have only on CDS of SWEAP countries. The current account balance or the inflation rate, as well as, relevant interaction terms seem not to affect the spreads of the EMU. These findings, together with the estimated structural change on CDS pattern in early 2011, coinciding with significant either the DOWN in the pre-crisis period (2008–2010) or the DEBT in the post-crisis one (2011–2013) on the CDS, seem to be consistent with self-fulfilling crises literature and the inherent vulnerability of EMU, on other words, the ‘fragility hypothesis of the Eurozone’.     

Financial illness and political virus: the case of contagious crises in the Eurozone

Abstract

This paper investigates the volatility spillover effects from the southern to northern part of the Eurozone during the sovereign debt crisis. Focusing on different phases of the crises, we propose using the dynamic conditional correlation model and the BEKK model to identify possible linkages during the period of 2005–2015. The findings showed that both models behave satisfactorily and are flexible in presenting spillover effects. However, regarding conditional correlations, the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model seems to fit better. Additionally, Spain and Italy can significantly damage all strong northern economies, while Greece’s negative shocks are capable of co-moving the French index. Finally, France is the most correlated country within the southern Eurozone.     

A sequential approach to regional integration: The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe

This paper develops a theory of optimal sequencing of regional integration and applies it to the specific question of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the EU. We show that the timing of transition and integration has implications for the long-term trade structure of Europe. In this model the interest to integrate the CEECs comes from harmonization of policies to attract industries. Without integration, European countries will try to inefficiently protect their industries. Because of the transfers implied by the CAP and the Structural Policies, the EU delays enlargement until the CEECs have sufficiently converged. CEECs might at this point prefer to stay outside the EU and attract industries by offering them more generous protection than the EU. Such timing may be inefficient ex ante for all countries because it may prevent full European integration in the long run, inducing firms to relocate outside of the EU and governments in the EU and the CEECs to inefficiently protect industry. During the transition, all countries benefit from regional integration among the CEECs.     

Quality of governance and varieties of capitalism in the European Union: core and periphery division?

A growing body of literature suggests that the quality of governance has a significant effect on economic development. Investigations highlight that the quality of government institutions varies substantially in the European Union. These differences raise the question of whether they comply with the various models of capitalism. However, the various approaches of institutional analyses either neglect the role of the state or consider only the welfare function and the extent of state intervention. This article uses the databases of the World Bank and the World Economic Forum to classify the members of the European Union into clusters based on the quality of governance. Cluster analyses find notably clear-cut clusters in both cases. These clusters do not coincide with the usual varieties of capitalism; instead, they indicate a gap between the northern and western vs. the southern and eastern European countries, which is a core vs. periphery division. This gap indicates a long-lasting challenge in the deepening of European integration.     

Spanish Imports of Manufactures and the European Union: An Empirical Assessment of the Entry

This paper investigates the consequences of Spain's accession to the European Union on its imports of manufactures. To that end the realised shares of GDP and the supplies of Spain's main trading partners in the transition period 1986–1992 are compared with the shares that are predicted by means of a model that is estimated using data that relate to the pre-integration period.     

Exporting Assets: EMU and the Financial Drivers of European Macroeconomic Imbalances

ABSTRACT

European Economic and Monetary Union has fostered an unstable complementarity in European financial markets between the growth models favoured by European savers (in the northern ‘core’ of Germany and other exporting states) and its borrowers (in the debt-fuelled and demand-driven eurozone periphery, including countries like Greece and Ireland). In the 2000s, the result of this development was a sharp decrease in real interest rates across the eurozone periphery, leading to rapid but inflationary growth. This eroded the competitiveness of exporters in the European periphery, making them more reliant on capital inflows to pay for growing current account deficits. Those deficits became problematic after the disruption of eurozone financial markets beginning in 2008. The policy response to the crises has focused on reducing the competitiveness gap between the core and periphery – while overlooking the financial forces that contributed to those competitiveness differentials in the first place. Indeed, it is the fragile and perverse complementarity in eurozone financial markets – more than any external shock or competitiveness differences – that lies at the root of Europe’s ongoing crisis.     

Domestic demand and global production in the Eurozone: A multi-regional input-output assessment of the global crisis

This paper studies the effects of domestic and foreign demand impulses in euro area economies following the Great Recession of 2008–2009 and the Eurozone crisis of 2011–2012. Using a global Input–Output framework we apply a set of metrics to assess spillover effects of international trade in intermediates triggered by the dynamics of final demand. Our findings suggest that while cross-country trade spillovers have played a crucial role during the Great Recession, they have had a moderate impact when compared with the role of domestic sources of final demand during the Eurozone crisis. Hence, a strategy of coordinated fiscal austerity cannot be sustained by empirical evidence.     

Introduction to “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.”

ABSTRACT

This paper offers the Introduction to the Special Issue “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.” We introduce the five papers. We distill three important lessons they offer for EU integration.     

A Kaleckian Perspective on Financialisation and Distribution in Three Main Eurozone Countries before and after the Crisis: France,Germany and Spain

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we examine if, and to what extent, a general Kaleckian analysis of the potential effects of financialisation on income shares in advanced capitalist economies is of relevance for the three Eurozone countries under investigation—France, Germany and Spain—in the period before the recent financial and economic crisis. Second, we study changes in the financialisation–distribution nexus that have occurred in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis. We find that the countries examined here have shown broad similarities regarding redistribution before the crisis, although there are some differences in the underlying determinants. These differences have continued during the period after the crisis and have led to different results in the development of distribution since then.     

Exchange Market Pressure in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) Area: Empirical Assessment of the Macroeconomic Determinants

ABSTRACT

The current empirical study contributes to the literature on the exchange market pressure. First we construct as proposed by Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz [1996. Contagious currency crises: First tests. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 98 (4), 463–484], a continuous measure of EMP for the CAEMC franc zone, using quarterly data from 1985Q1 to 2012Q2. We then address the main macroeconomic determinants of this EMP.

We find that our main measure for EMP as well as two alternative measures of this index captures quite well episodes of crises of the CFA (XAF) currency. During the period of study, the common currency of the CAEMC countries experienced about four speculative attacks, with the one in 1993 ending with the devaluation of that currency in January 1994. The other attacks were warded off through reserves losses, as it is clear that the currency peg was maintained principally through changes in reserves. We also find that the GDP growth, the trade balance and the international oil price are the main contributors of EMP and therefore the most significant predictors of currency crises in the CAEMC area.     

European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?

We investigate how European policy initiatives influenced market assessments of sovereign default risk and banking sector fragility during the sovereign debt crisis in four adversely affected countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. We focus on three broad groups of policies: (a) ECB policy actions (monetary and financial support), (b) EU programs (financial and fiscal rules as well as financial support in crisis countries), and (c) domestic austerity programs. We measure immediate market impact effects: what policies changed risk perceptions, using CDS spreads on sovereign bonds and banks in this assessment. We employ dynamic panel and event study methodologies in the empirical work. We find that a number of programs initially stabilized sovereign and bank bond markets (e.g. Outright Monetary Transactions program), although announcement and implementation impacts on markets differed in some cases (e.g. second Covered Market Bond Program). Actions designed to shore up sovereign markets often lowered risk assessments in bank bond markets and policies designed to ensure safety and soundness of the European banking system in some cases significantly impacted sovereign debt markets. Finally, a number of policies designed to stabilize markets had surprisingly little immediate impact on either sovereign or bank bond market risk assessments.     

The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Some Evidence from the European Union and Portugal

Observing the statistical relationship between business cycles correlation and trade intensity in the European Union, euro zone, and the Portuguese economy, we conclude that there is, in general, a positive effect that supports the endogeneity argument proposed by Frankel and Rose (The Economic Journal 108(449):pp. 1009–1025, 1998). However, if we analyse this relationship in sub-periods – 1967–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1992, and 1993–2003 – we conclude that endogeneity hypothesis just hold in the first two, although the correlations are increasing. This could mean that, after the Single European Act in 1986, other forces beyond trade are contributing to business cycle synchronization. The Portuguese business cycle correlation with the European Union and the Euro zone had also increased in these four decades, despite the fact that endogeneity hypothesis is at a 90 percent confidence level. We also analyse the bilateral relationships between the Portuguese economy and the other European Union countries and find that the endogeneity is confirmed in just four cases: Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, and UK.     

Poland's Accession to the European Union: Demand for Protection of Selected Sensitive Products

This paper analyses the expected changes in external tariffs and imports in Poland after accession to the European Union. We find that around 14% of all manufacturing commodity groups in the Harmonised System will experience tariff reductions of over 10 percentage points, while for agricultural goods tariff comparisons are complicated by very different tariff systems and may be overrated, since applied tariffs are often lower than those legislated. Based on gravity estimates we also find onlly few relatively narrowly defined commodities will experience import growth rates of above 20%. More widely defined sensitive commodities are subject to much smaller but still important import growth     

面对中国市场经济地位问题：美国和欧盟的政策比较及启示

在今年若干国家正式承认了中国的市场经济地位的国际背景下,美国和欧盟却宣称暂时不给予中国市场经济地位。美国和欧盟作为中国的两大贸易伙伴,这样的外交辞令无疑会对其他与中国有贸易往来的国家产生导向作用,而这与中国目前积极争取获得市场经济地位的近期目标是相左的。针对美国和欧盟对中国市场经济地位的政策比较,进而分析两者的异同,谋求各个击破的方法并提出相应的政策建议,最终为中国争取全面获得市场经济地位做出努力。     

Money and the ‘Level Playing Field’: The Epistemic Problem of European Financial Market Integration

ABSTRACT

Financial market integration processes in the European Union (EU) are characterised by an epistemic problem of economic theory. This problem encompasses what ‘the market’ is, how it is to be ‘integrated’, and the nature and role of ‘money’ as infrastructure of the fully integrated market. The EU’s legal framework has imported this epistemic problem along with the competitive conception of the market as described in economic theory – as a ‘level playing field’ for private exchange, under free, fair and ideally unrestrained competition. It manifests itself in European financial market integration processes, as exemplified in the article, via two otherwise disconnected areas of European Central Bank (ECB) activity: (a) the provision of central bank credit for the purpose of financial transaction settlement in the Eurozone; and (b) the conduct of ordinary monetary policy in the Eurozone. While the problem can be stabilised through legal, technical and other means, it remains latent, and may manifest itself again in unexpected ways, as happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, contrary to ideologies that are widely understood as more or less coherent systems of doctrines, epistemic problems are characterised by specific tensions, contradictions and conceptual uncertainties.     

Imagining the European Economy: 'Competitiveness' and the Social Construction of 'Europe' as an Economic Space

This article analyses the political and ideological agency of an emergent European transnational capitalist class in the socioeconomic governance of the European Union (EU) by examining the case of the European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT). It seeks to show that the ERT‐as an elite forum mediating the interests and power of the most transnationalise d segments of European capital‐has played a significant role in shaping European governance in as much as it has successfully articulated and promoted ideas and concepts thathave at critical times set the political agenda and, beyond, have helped to shape the discourse within which European policy making is embedded. Here, the increasingly neoliberal orientation of the ERT reflects, and at the same time is a constitutive element within, the construction of a new European order in which governance is geared to serve the interests of a globalising transnational capitalist elite, and hence the exigencies of global 'competitiveness'. Although in recent years some detailed work has been done on the role of the ERT in the internal market programme, there has as yet been little attention paid to (and thus interpretation of) the content of the ideas promoted by the ERT and hence to the ideological power that this forum of transnational capitalists exercises. The article is divided into four main parts. The first briefly elaborates the theoretical framework that informs my analysis. Drawing upon what has come to be labelled the 'neo-Gramscian school' in International Relations (IR), I willadvance a historical materialist understanding of the dynamics of European integration, emphasising in particular the role of transnational social forces‐as engendered by the capitalist production process‐in the political and ideological struggles over European order. The second part introduces the case of the European Round Table. I will claim that the ERT is neither a simple business lobby nor a corporatist interest association, but must rather be interpreted as having developed into an elite platform for an emergent European transnational capitalist class from which it can formulate a common strategy and‐on the basis of that strategy‐seek to shape European socioeconomic governance through its privileged access to the European institutions. It is this latter role of the ERT that will be the focus of the final two parts. As such, the third presents an analysis of the evolution of ERT's strategic project and the initiating role the Round Table played in the relaunching of the integration process from Europe 1992 to Maastricht. Following this, the fourth part will analyse the ideological orientation and strategic outlook of today's Round Table and its current role in shaping what I will call the neoliberal discourse of competitiveness which, I argue, increasingly underpins European governance.     

Disrupting the European Crisis: A Critical Political Economy of Contestation,Subversion and Escape

Central to much of the critical political economy (CPE) literature is a declared focus on emancipation. Yet, rather than highlight sources and instances of activity that might result in emancipatory outcomes, much of the CPE literature focuses on relations of domination and the way in which these are sustained and (re)produced. In contrast, and drawing on autonomist Marxism, we argue that an emancipation-oriented approach needs to focus upon the ways in which processes of domination are contested, disrupted and as a result remain incomplete. In doing so, we present an analysis of the European political and economic crisis that contrasts starkly with prevailing accounts. Whilst many observers have considered the European crisis in terms that signal the death knell of labour's prolonged post-1970s defeat, the paper instead renders visible the ongoing disruptive effects of the European populace's obstinate, subversive and creative capacity to escape those attempts to achieve domination and subjugation which existing accounts tend to identify.     

当前金融危机的根源及启示探析:一种马克思主义的视角

对于当前全球性金融危机产生的原因,中外学者有不同的见解;有的从技术层面或运行层面或监管层面去解释,有的从体制层面或制度层面去解释,都有各自的道理。但从深层次的根源上说,这次金融危机并未超越马克思关于经济危机的理论逻辑,其根源依然是由资本主义基本矛盾引发的。我国应对此次金融危机,首先要坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,抵制和消除新自由主义对我国的影响;其次要重视虚拟经济与实体经济的结合;再次要减少我国过高的外贸依存度;最后要防止金融与经济危机危害的继续扩大,加强对虚拟经济的有效监管。     

The societal impact of pain in the European Union: health-related quality of life and healthcare resource utilization

Abstract

Objectives:

This paper reports on the results of a series of quantitative assessments of the association of severe and frequent pain with health-related quality of life and healthcare resource utilization in five European countries.

Methods:

The analysis contrasts the contribution of the increasing severity and frequency of pain reported against respondents reporting no pain in the previous month. The data are taken from the 2008 National Health and Wellness Survey. Single-equation generalized linear regression models are used to evaluate the association of pain with the physical and mental component scores of the SF-12 questionnaire as well as health utilities generated from the SF-6D. In addition, the role of pain is assessed in its association with healthcare provider visits, emergency room visits and hospitalizations.

Results:

The results indicate that the experience of pain, notably severe and frequent pain, is substantial and is significantly associated with the SF-12 physical component scores, health utilities and all aspects of healthcare resource utilization, which far outweighs the role of demographic and socioeconomic variables, health risk factors (in particular body mass index) and the presence of comorbidities. In the case of severe daily pain, the marginal contribution of the SF-12 physical component score is a deficit of ?17.86 compared to those reporting no pain (population average score 46.49), while persons who are morbidly obese report a deficit of only ?6.63 compared to those who are normal weight. The corresponding association with health utilities is equally dramatic with a severe daily pain deficit of ?0.19 compared to those reporting no pain (average population utility 0.71).

Conclusions:

For the five largest EU countries, the societal burden of pain is considerable. The experience of pain far outweighs the contribution of more traditional explanations of HRQoL deficits as well as being the primary factor associated with increased provider visits, emergency room visits and hospitalizations.     

World Exports of New and Used Automobiles: A Gravity Model Comparison among the European Union,Japan and the United States

This paper considers new and used automobile exports of the European Union, Japan and the United States within a gravity model framework. This standard framework has similar explanatory power for the new and used automobile exports of the European Union and the United States, as well as for the new automobile exports of Japan, but not for Japan's used automobile exports, a finding the paper associates with the importance of left-hand driving in determining the markets for Japan's used (but not ‘made to order’ new) automobile exports. The paper concludes that, while used automobiles are somewhat more important to lower income markets, controlling for discrimination and other factors, used automobile trade clearly supplements new automobile trade from the prospective of the importing country.