Management by decree. Paradoxes in the reform of the Italian public sector

A call for “better” governance of the public sphere informed by reliance on management and accounting expertise has recently arisen in connection with a variety of legislative initiatives enacted in Italy. This paper looks at the nature and role of this “reform”, and in particular the call for the introduction of managerial accounting. It is argued that far from facilitating a comprehensive introduction of managerial vocabulary and knowledge into the public domain, the Italian legislative mechanism tends to hamper the expression of management and accounting as technically autonomous and coherent systems, while at the same time allowing more established audiences to deliberate on their nature and role. Although the reform was devised in terms of introducing the economic and the measurable into the domains of bureaucracy and formal compliance, its legal articulation seems to be informed by the very logic and ethos it is called upon to change.     

Inference in panel data models under attrition caused by unobservables

This paper concerns identification and estimation of a finite-dimensional parameter in a panel data-model under nonignorable sample attrition. Attrition can depend on second period variables which are unobserved for the attritors but an independent refreshment sample from the marginal distribution of the second period values is available. This paper shows that under a quasi-separability assumption, the model implies a set of conditional moment restrictions where the moments contain the attrition function as an unknown parameter. This formulation leads to (i) a simple proof of identification under strictly weaker conditions than those in the existing literature and, more importantly, (ii) a sieve-based root-n$n$ consistent estimate of the finite-dimensional parameter of interest. These methods are applicable to both linear and nonlinear panel data models with endogenous attrition and analogous methods are applicable to situations of endogenously missing data in a single cross-section. The theory is illustrated with a simulation exercise, using Current Population Survey data where a panel structure is introduced by the rotation group feature of the sampling process.     

Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference

We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection.     

Inference in dynamic stochastic frontier models

An important issue in models of technical efficiency measurement concerns the temporal behaviour of inefficiency. Consideration of dynamic models is necessary but inference in such models is complicated. In this paper we propose a stochastic frontier model that allows for technical inefficiency effects and dynamic technical inefficiency, and use Bayesian inference procedures organized around data augmentation techniques to provide inferences. Also provided are firm‐specific efficiency measures. The new methods are applied to a panel of large US commercial banks over the period 1989–2000. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications*

Structural vector‐autoregressive models are potentially very useful tools for guiding both macro‐ and microeconomic policy. In this study, we present a recently developed method for estimating such models, which uses non‐normality to recover the causal structure underlying the observations. We show how the method can be applied to both microeconomic data (to study the processes of firm growth and firm performance) and macroeconomic data (to analyse the effects of monetary policy).     

Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model

This paper develops a new Bayesian approach to structural break modeling. The focuses of the approach are the modeling of in-sample structural breaks and forecasting time series allowing out-of-sample breaks. The model has several desirable features. First, the number of regimes is not fixed but is treated as a random variable. Second, the model adopts a hierarchical prior for regime coefficients, which allows for the coefficients of one regime to contain information about coefficients of other regimes. Third, the regime coefficients can be integrated analytically in the posterior density; as a consequence the posterior simulator is fast and reliable. An application to US real GDP quarterly growth rates links groups of regimes to specific historical periods and provides forecasts of future growth rates.     

Inference on factor structures in heterogeneous panels

This paper develops an estimation and testing framework for a stationary large panel model with observable regressors and unobservable common factors. We allow for slope heterogeneity and for correlation between the common factors and the regressors. We propose a two stage estimation procedure for the unobservable common factors and their loadings, based on Common Correlated Effects estimator and the Principal Component estimator. We also develop two tests for the null of no factor structure: one for the null that loadings are cross sectionally homogeneous, and one for the null that common factors are homogeneous over time. Our tests are based on using extremes of the estimated loadings and common factors. The test statistics have an asymptotic Gumbel distribution under the null, and have power versus alternatives where only one loading or common factor differs from the others. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the tests have the correct size and good power.     

Inference in regression models with many regressors

We investigate the behavior of various standard and modified F$F$, likelihood ratio (LR$LR$), and Lagrange multiplier (LM$LM$) tests in linear homoskedastic regressions, adapting an alternative asymptotic framework in which the number of regressors and possibly restrictions grows proportionately to the sample size. When the restrictions are not numerous, the rescaled classical test statistics are asymptotically chi-squared, irrespective of whether there are many or few regressors. However, when the restrictions are numerous, standard asymptotic versions of classical tests are invalid. We propose and analyze asymptotically valid versions of the classical tests, including those that are robust to the numerosity of regressors and restrictions. The local power of all asymptotically valid tests under consideration turns out to be equal. The “exact” F$F$ test that appeals to critical values of the F$F$ distribution is also asymptotically valid and robust to the numerosity of regressors and restrictions.     

Bayesian Inference in Spatial Sample Selection Models

In this study, we consider Bayesian methods for the estimation of a sample selection model with spatially correlated disturbance terms. We design a set of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on the method of data augmentation. The natural parameterization for the covariance structure of our model involves an unidentified parameter that complicates posterior analysis. The unidentified parameter – the variance of the disturbance term in the selection equation – is handled in different ways in these algorithms to achieve identification for other parameters. The Bayesian estimator based on these algorithms can account for the selection bias and the full covariance structure implied by the spatial correlation. We illustrate the implementation of these algorithms through a simulation study and an empirical application.     

Accessible Conceptions of Statistical Inference: Pulling Ourselves Up by the Bootstraps

With the rapid, ongoing expansions in the world of data, we need to devise ways of getting more students much further, much faster. One of the choke points affecting both accessibility to a broad spectrum of students and faster progress is classical statistical inference based on normal theory. In this paper, bootstrap‐based confidence intervals and randomisation tests conveyed through dynamic visualisation are developed as a means of reducing cognitive demands and increasing the speed with which application areas can be opened up. We also discuss conceptual pathways and the design of software developed to enable this approach.