FINANCIAL AND MONETARY AUTONOMY AND INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE OTHER SACU COUNTRIES

The paper uses cointegration and error correction modelling techniques together with tests of weak exogeneity, and monthly interest rates for the period 1990 to 2005, to examine the degree of financial and monetary autonomy and interdependence between South Africa and the other Southern African Customs, Union (SACU) countries. The results reveal a high level of dependence of the other SACU countries' financial systems on South Africa's financial system, which suggests that a monetary unification with a single central bank (South African Reserve Bank) and monetary policy for the union is feasible.     

DURATION ANALYSIS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THE SEARCH FOR SUPERIOR MEASURES

The Macaulay duration is a highly successful tool for measuring and managing interest rate risk. However, it employs restrictive assumptions which constrain its usefulness in a rapidly evolving market. The Basel II implementation and ongoing accounting standard reassessments highlight the requirement for accurate, robust risk measures. Contemporary research has focused on augmenting the existing duration definition. We extend this work by relaxing some input assumptions, describing a different duration measure and applying it to interest rate driven price changes and examining the influence on the duration gap. The economic market value of equity (an important metric for regulators and risk management) is significantly improved.     

THE ROLE OF COMMODITY PRICES IN MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper examines whether commodity prices can be used as signal for informing macroeconomic policy in South Africa using the new approach for testing Granger causality developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ). Evidence of causality from average gold price to interest rate, money, exchange rate and the consumer price index was observed. Again, evidence of causality was observed from metals price index to interest rate, money and exchange rate. The results suggest there is merit in using South Africa's average gold price and the metals price index of the International Monetary Fund as informational variables in setting monetary policy.     

CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT AND CYCLICAL OUTPUT: AN ESTIMATION OF OKUN'S COEFFICIENT FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Persistently high unemployment in South Africa, especially in the face of improved economic conditions since 1994, begs the question: Does unemployment in South Africa respond to changes in output? Okun's law refers to the inverse relationship that exists between cyclical output and cyclical unemployment. This paper estimates Okun's coefficient for the South African economy, using annual data from 1970‐2005. Output and unemployment are decomposed into their trend and cyclical components, using a variety of detrending methods. The presence of structural breaks in Okun's relationship is also investigated, while cointegration analysis was also considered. Evidence of a statistically significant relationship between cyclical output and cyclical unemployment are found in both symmetric (estimates range from ?0.77 to ?0.16) and asymmetric (estimates range from ?0.77 to ?0.18) specifications of Okun's law, irrespective of the detrending technique. However, cyclical unemployment constitutes only a relatively small fraction of total (observed) unemployment, which implies that a more expansionary macroeconomic policy stance might only have a limited impact on total unemployment in South Africa.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SAVING AND GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

This paper uses the Johansen VECM estimation technique to examine the directions of association between saving and growth in South Africa over the period 1946–1992. We examine the aggregate private saving rate and its interaction with investment and growth. The paper finds that the private saving rate has a direct, as well as, an indirect effect on growth. The indirect effect is through the private investment rate. In turn, we find that growth has a positive effect on the private saving rate. The extent of this effect is determined by liquidity constraints. Thus, we have a virtuous cycle, as growth enhances saving, which in turn further enhances growth.     

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND AGGREGATE PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper investigates the effects of time varying uncertainty on aggregate private fixed investment in South Africa. The GARCH generated measures of volatility of selected macroeconomic variables indicating five measures of uncertainty are used in the analysis. These are output growth uncertainty, uncertainty about changes in the real effective exchange rate, uncertainty about changes in the real interest rate, producer inflation uncertainty, and terms of trade uncertainty. The results of the estimation by an empirical ECM model of conventional investment determinants controlling for the effects of uncertainty indicated that, over all, time varying macroeconomic uncertainty significantly reduces private fixed investment.     

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT FROM UNRESTRICTED ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS

The main aim of this study is to examine empirically the long‐run relationship of money demand and its determinants in South Africa. In contrast with existing studies on the subject, the present study considers various components of real income as determinants. The disaggregated components are final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods and exports. The other determinants are domestic interest rate, yield on government bonds and the exchange rate. The results confirm that the different components of real income have different impacts on the demand for money in South Africa. The presence of long‐run equilibrium relationships between the demand for real M1, M2 and M3 and their determinants is confirmed based on the results of bounds testing.     

THE CYCLICALITY OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA SINCE 1994

This paper uses a structural vector‐autoregression approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed to the remarkable stabilisation of the South African economy over this period. The evaluation of the role of fiscal policy in stabilisation has been less favourable and there is little evidence that a countercyclical fiscal stance was a priority over this period. This paper considers these issues in an empirical framework that addresses some of the shortcomings in the literature. Specifically, it constructs a structural model in contrast with the reduced form models typically used in the South African literature, incorporates the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal shocks on the demand side and supply shocks on the other, and avoids controversy over “neutral” base years and the size of fiscal elasticities. The model confirms the consensus on monetary policy, finding it to have been largely countercyclical since 1994. On fiscal policy, this paper finds evidence of pro‐cyclicality, especially in the more recent period, though the policy simulations suggest that the pro‐cyclicality of fiscal policy has had little destabilising impact on real output.     

A STOCHASTIC ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK FOR COMPONENTS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Under inflation targeting in South Africa, it is important to monitor and forecast changes in prices, not only for aggregate measures of the consumer price index, but also its underlying sub-components. Hypotheses about sectoral transmission of policy and shocks are often more specific than hypotheses about overall transmission. This study employs a stochastic framework to estimate richly specified equilibrium correction models, four-quarters-ahead, for the 10 sub-components of the first targeted measure of the consumer price index, CPIX. The stochastic trends are estimated by the Kalman filter, and interpreted as capturing structural breaks and institutional change, a frequent cause of forecast failure. The trends suggest the design of deterministic split trends for use in recursive forecasting models, towards more accurate overall inflation forecasting. This research also has practical use for monetary policy in allowing identification of sectoral sources of inflation.     

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study

This study examines various claims that in the U.S., international trade has contributed to a loss of manufacturing base, an increased gap between unskilled and skilled wages, lower employment, and a loss of productivity. Cointegration tests indicate that in the long run and at the macro level, the ratio of trade to output and FDI to output are correlated with the manufacturing share of output, the ratio of unskilled to skilled wages, labor productivity, and the employment rate. However, Granger causality tests reveal that, with one exception, causation does not run from trade to the domestic variables, the only exception being that FDI Granger causes productivity. When the focus is shifted to the manufacturing sector, the results support the proposition that openness to trade has had adverse effects on this sector.A slightly different version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 16–19, 2003 in Quebec City, Canada. The research reported in this paper is partially funded by a grant from the Institute for Global Economic Affairs at Marquette University.     

The relationship between U.S. and eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market

The Relationship between U.S. and Eurodollar Interest Rates: Evidence from the Futures Market. — This paper analyzes the lead/lag relationship in the Granger-cause sense between U.S. and Eurodollar interest rates in futures contracts. It shows that yields on U.S. Treasury bill and Eurodollar futures are cointegrated with the TED spread as the cointegrating vector for the period January 1987–July 1993. The error correction model indicates that the U.S. market leads the Eurodollar market. However, the presence of this unidirectional causality does not improve the forecasting of Eurodollar yields. Other evidence given in the paper suggests that the hypothesis of contemporaneous relationships, at least on daily base, is not rejected.     

MODELLING INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

We employ an expectations augmented Phillips curve framework to investigate the link between inflation, unit labour costs, the output gap, the real exchange rate and inflation expectations. Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find evidence consistent with mark‐up behaviour of output prices over unit labour costs. Most importantly, we find that the mark‐up in the South African economy is much higher than in the U.S. For South Africa we find a markup of about 30 per cent: three times as high as the 10 per cent markup found for the U.S.     

AID AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA: THE DEBATE, THE CHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARD

The article discusses the emerging literature and debates on aid, within the context of expected increases in aid flows to the continent. The trends in ODA flows indicate a reversal in aid flows to the continent since 2000, with subsequent increases in aid intensity and dependence. Although the more recent literature on aid is doubtful if aid only spurs growth in a in a good policy environment, the aid‐institutional debate indicates a clear aid‐institutional paradox, especially relating to the macroeconomic effects, the fiscal response, the absorptive capacity and the good governance aid debates. The literature further indicates that aid could serve as a barrier to vulnerable societies. From the donors' perspective, it is evident that quantity of aid does not imply quality and that the ultimate responsibility lies with recipient governments to ensure more efficient absorption of aid.     

The effects of changing U.S. MFN status for China

The Effects of Changing U.S. MFN Status for China. — This paper focuses on the effects of the U.S. not renewing Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status for Chinese imports. An applied general equilibrium model is used to simulate the increase in tariffs from the column 1 (MFN) to the column 2 (non-MFN) duty level. Using 1992 data, the results show Chinese exports to the U.S. drop by approximately $11 billion, or over 50 percent. The U.S. and China both experience a decline in real income. While these results suggest MFN withdrawal would have a larger detrimental effect on the Chinese economy than on the U.S. economy, the estimates do not include Chinese retaliation.     

Foreign direct investment and factor prices in U.S. manufacturing

Foreign Direct Investment and Factor Prices in U.S. Manufacturing. —We investigate whether inward foreign direct investment (FDI) can explain part of the increase in relative wages of skilled workers in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1977–1994 by studying the sector bias of the effects of FDI on sector prices and technology. We follow the two-stage mandated-wage approach based on the StolperSamuelson theorem. We find that inward FDI affects the sum of sector prices and productivity depending on the absorptive capacity available in the sector. We also find some evidence that inward FDI has induced a sector bias towards using skilled workers over the period 1977–1994.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS AND HIV/AIDS PREVALENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA ‐ A LITERATURE REVIEW1

The aim of this literature review is to analyse the contribution of current research and literature to an understanding of the relationship between labour market dynamics and HIV/AIDS prevalence in South Africa. It highlights and assesses the extent to which those factors that are regarded as determinants of HIV susceptibility, AIDS vulnerability and prevalence, interact with differentiation in the labour market. The conclusion is that current research studies do not sufficiently consider a more nuanced relationship between complex labour market dynamics and socio‐economic risk factors driving HIV/AIDS susceptibility and vulnerability.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING COHORT ANALYSIS, 1994‐20041

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment.