南太平洋岛国的重庆天使

2008年11月23日。鲜花和掌声迎来了第三批中国援助巴布亚新几内亚医疗队的重庆白衣天使们。在千里之外的南太平洋岛国,他们发扬救死扶伤的国际主义精神,为巴新人民带去了最好的医疗服务,展现了中国医生的风采。他们用无私的大爱,谱写了一曲曲跨越国界的爱的赞歌,为中国赢得了荣誉。巴新人民对这支医疗队给予了最大的褒奖——     

Aid,Policy and Growth: Does Aid Modality Matter?

This paper contributes to the empirics of aid and growth by investigating whether aid modality matters in explaining its effectiveness. For this purpose, we include the four main aid modalities (project aid, financial program aid, technical assistance grants, and food aid) as explanatory variables in an endogenous growth model. We find that project aid affects positively and significantly growth, albeit with diminishing returns. Our results also show that financial program aid generally impacts on growth negatively, while the impacts of technical assistance and food aid are statistically insignificant. Moreover, we find that climate-related conditions influence the effect of project aid. JEL no.  C2, F3     

A Model of Aid Impact in Some South Pacific Microstates

This paper investigates the impact of foreign aid on the economic structure of the recipient economy using a two-sector general equilibrium model. Underlying assumptions are designed to mirror a number of stylized facts about a group of South Pacific microstates known as MIRAB countries. Two variants of the model are constructed to reflect these countries' unequal access to overseas labor markets. Qualitative results reveal the likelihood of a structural transformation of the economy akin to that known as Dutch Disease, namely the relative contraction of the tradables sector. Quantitative results confirm the plausibility of this outcome.     

制度质量、对外援助和受援国经济增长

对外援助是中国推动一带一路建设,加强与沿线国家双边合作的重要举措之一。文章采用2000～2014年中国对外援助的面板数据,在考虑援助的内生性及使用全球治理指数的基础上,实证研究了中国对外援助和制度质量对受援国经济增长的影响。实证研究结果表明:中国对外援助尤其是基础设施援助能够有效促进受援国的经济增长;良好的制度建设是受援国经济增长的重要保障;分样本回归显示,受援国制度质量能够显著影响中国对外援助尤其是经济基础设施援助的经济增长效应,这一效应在亚欧受援国表现明显;拓展分析发现中国对外援助和OECD国家对外援助呈现出1+1>2的效果。为提升中国对外援助的效果和质量,中国需要改进对外援助结构,加强对援助项目实施过程的监督,减少受援国制度风险的影响。     

Aid,Policies, and Growth in Developing Countries: A New Look at the Empirics

The relationship between foreign aid and economic growth has been the subject of much controversy. A recent theme suggesting that aid promotes growth, but only in a good policy environment has ratcheted up that debate. In this paper, we assess the importance of policy and aid in generating growth when the aid, policy, and growth relationship is nonlinear. This allows us to examine the varying effects of aid and policy in different data segments, which we do without imposing any particular structure on the underlying relationship. We find that policy is an important determinant of growth. We also find partial corroboration of the view that aid is growth enhancing in a good policy environment, and some evidence of diminishing returns to aid. These findings suggest that nonlinearities if not appropriately addressed fail to capture the detailed underlying dynamics and thereby mask some key features of the aid-policy-growth relationship.     

Workers' Remittances,Capital Inflows,and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations.     

国际援助再分类及其对受援国经济增长的异质性影响

国际援助对受援国的经济影响在学界并没有一致的答案,文章从不同类型国际援助的影响具有异质性的角度再次探讨这一问题。文章的主要工作有两点：一是对援助类型的重新分类;二是根据新分类的援助,实证分析不同类型援助的异质性影响。首先,基于中观经济学对生成性资源的分类方式,文章提出资源配对援助法,将国际援助分为了商业性援助、开发性援助和公益性援助三类,并与经合组织债权人申报系统相衔接,建立了分类后的国际援助数据集。然后,在实证分析部分,分别研究了援助总规模和不同类型国际援助对受援国经济发展的影响。结果发现,援助总规模对受援国的经济正向影响显著。同时,开发性援助和公益性援助存在门槛效应和滞后性,两者都有显著的正向影响,而且开发性援助对受援国经济发展促进作用要强于公益性援助。     

Pacific Island Economies: Performance, Growth Prospects and the Impact of the Asian Economic Crisis

The small Pacific island economies are increasingly challenged by globalisation. This paper, drawing on the limited literature, surveys the economic performance and growth prospects of six of the economies for which fair economic data are available, with special reference to the impact of the Asian crisis. Developments and problems are discussed country by country and sector by sector. In conclusion the author indicates the reforms needed to raise living standards in these small countries.     

Islands and the demographic transition

The generalization that island states are demographically more modern than continental states, and in particular that they have experienced greater fertility and mortality declines, is examined empirically for the Caribbean and the Pacific. A statistical analysis of recent Caribbean and Latin American data supports the view that island status is linked to an early demographic transition, independently of intervening, socio-economic factors, but the relationship is a modest one. The Pacific island data, however, tend to show the reverse, namely the persistence of high fertility despite favourable standards of living. One of the reasons for this contrast may be the greater importance of plantation agriculture and mass importation of labour in the Caribbean than in the Pacific.     

Aid and trade

This paper surveys the recent theoretical and empirical literaturethat explores the relations between aid and trade and asks aboutthe complementarity or substitution effects at work. We distinguishbetween the effects of aid on trade flows and on trade policies,of the donor as well as the recipient countries. Special focusis given on trade facilitation, or ‘aid for trade’.