中国邮轮旅游产业:研究现状与展望

邮轮产业已经成为现代旅游业中发展最为迅猛的行业,近几年达到8％左右的增长速度,被视为“漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业”.然而,邮轮业并没有引起学术界的足够关注,研究成果还非常有限.近年来国际邮轮市场的倾斜,使得中国邮轮旅游业发展势头强劲,已成为中国经济增长的新方式和新领域.文章基于国内现有的文献资料,对中国邮轮旅游产业的研究问题和研究成果进行了综述.首先介绍了世界邮轮业的概况和中国邮轮业的发展现状;其次从宏观审视和微观分析的角度讨论了中国学者对邮轮旅游业的研究成果;最后针对中国邮轮产业的问题,从产业集聚视角、利益相关者视角和消费者视角提出了未来值得研究的方向.     

我国邮轮旅游产业发展对策研究

我国正处在大力发展邮轮旅游产业的历史时期.文章通过分析世界邮轮旅游的现状,剖析我国邮轮旅游产业的特点及发展中存在的问题,旨在提出推动我国邮轮旅游发展的对策和建议.文章认为,邮轮旅游业的发展在宏观方面需要政府在制定政策体系、强化管理机制、培育引导市场主体、制定统一规划、引导游客等方面有所加强,才能够引导邮轮旅游业在发展能力和质量上上一个新的台阶.     

中国邮轮旅游业:新常态与新趋势

世界邮轮产业经历了40多年的快速发展,已经成为现代旅游业中发展最迅速、经济效益最显著的业务之一.近年来,国际邮轮市场开始逐步“东移”.随着大量邮轮新政的推出,中国邮轮产业发展迅速,已经成为亚洲邮轮市场的核心组成部分.可以说,邮轮旅游业既是中国经济融入国际分工、参与国际市场的典型产业,又是我国服务业全面开放的重要体现.     

疫情影响下全球邮轮网络格局与重构

新冠疫情对全球邮轮旅游业产生了严重的影响,改变了邮轮网络的地理空间格局。本文主要分析了疫情前期、疫情初期和疫情后期3个阶段的邮轮网络格局和空间特征,研究发现：（1）疫情前期,邮轮网络呈现出全球性的线状分布格局;（2）疫情初期,邮轮网络呈点状分布,在区域层面、国家层面和港口层面具有显著的集聚性特征;在企业层面,因企业船队规模的大小差异,邮轮网络分别呈点状散布和集聚分布;中国-东亚区域邮轮网络呈现出空白化特征,主要源于出入境管理和港口布局的差异。（3）疫情后期,全球邮轮经历了尝试性复航到部分复航,邮轮网络由单一区域到多区域的渐进变化。最后,基于疫情发展和邮轮网络演进特征,从未复航区域和已复航区域两个方面,重点讨论了东亚、澳新等区域邮轮网络可能的重构格局和已复航区域邮轮网络未来的扩展变化,以期为后疫情时代邮轮运营商的网络组织、全球邮轮网络的演进提供参考和借鉴。     

加勒比海邮轮航运网络港口分异与网络结构

邮轮航运网络是特殊的航运网络,除传统航运职能外,还具有旅游休闲职能,这促使航运网络在港口分异、网络结构等方面均发生了一定的变化,港口联系、航线组织等表现出空间聚集性、显著的区域化特征。加勒比海是全球邮轮旅游市场、邮轮航运网络最成熟的航区。本文以加勒比海为例,基于邮轮航运轨迹大数据,采用复杂网络模型识别邮轮港口中心性和划分邮轮港口社区,对区域性邮轮航运网络进行剖析,刻画港口分异格局与网络结构,揭示区域性邮轮航运网络的结构和空间规律。研究发现：（1）加勒比海邮轮港口存在职能分异,划分为大型综合母港、一般母港、一般始发港、核心挂靠港和一般挂靠港5类。邮轮港口空间分布不均,形成了以佛罗里达半岛为核心、东加勒比海为次核心,周围地区为外围的“核心-外围”式空间结构。（2）加勒比海航运网络存在区域化特征,形成了4个港口组团,并形成了两个邮轮航运联系密集的航运通道,构建起加勒比海邮轮航运网络的核心和骨架。（3）这种双核心,多节点的结构有助于航运网络的构建,对中国邮轮旅游的港口建设和航线组织具有借鉴意义。     

邮轮旅游季节性特征:基于北美市场的实证分析

作为气候和自然条件依赖性很强的产业,邮轮旅游本身具有明显的季节性特征.以2005-2011年北美地区全部30198个航次邮轮乘客的季度数据和月度数据为样本,分别利用X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型对北美邮轮市场的季度数据和月度数据进行了分析.季节调整后的数据表明,北美邮轮市场呈现持续扩张的长期趋势.与季度季节性相比,该地区邮轮旅游表现出更强的月度季节性特征,其中1月、3月、7月和12月是相对旺季,而5月、9月、10月和11月是相对淡季.总体来看,北美邮轮旅游受季节性因素和不规则因素的影响较弱,一方面由于当前邮轮旅游的需求主要受运力驱动,邮轮满舱率普遍较高;另一方面由于邮轮公司可以在季节交替时段通过船舶重配或重置(repositioning)策略来规避季节性的不良影响.     

中国邮轮市场的价格形成机制与“低价困境”研究

价格是邮轮市场的重要竞争手段.文章通过对2014年和2015年中国市场所销售的在线邮轮产品最后销售价格进行对比分析,发现存在价格下降问题,并且该问题已成为当前国内邮轮行业广受关注和备受困扰的问题.国内外学者虽然从国际邮轮公司定价、游客价值感知、邮轮市场结构方面对价格机制有所研究,但是对中国邮轮市场的价格形成机制和低价成因缺乏专门研究.文章从中国本土邮轮市场的独特性出发,结合电话访谈和市场观察,探讨了国内邮轮市场的价格形成机制,研究发现,包船/切舱模式促使形成中国特色的邮轮市场:邮轮包价旅游产品占据主导、旅游中间商成为竞争主体、垄断竞争市场、价格竞争激烈,再加上外部环境不确定性,最终导致邮轮市场价格降低.为厘清当前价格下降是否属于低价竞争,文章引入SCP范式从市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效3个方面来评价邮轮市场价格竞争有效性,研究结果证实当前价格竞争已成为低价过度竞争,国内邮轮市场陷入“低价困境”.低价成因在于国内邮轮市场的产品变异、营销渠道变异和市场结构变异,而破解低价困局的必由之路就是渠道再造和产品差异化.邮轮公司须重新设计渠道体系,减少对旅游中间商的依赖,以产品吸引力带动渠道销售.同时,邮轮公司和旅行社须放弃当前捆绑一体化的邮轮产品而推出更多自由组合式的产品,突出邮轮产品的差异化.邮轮市场各方只有不断创新,制造差别,才能延长其生存期并得到发展.     

邮轮收益管理的舱位分配：基于EMSR-a和EMSR-b的比较分析

邮轮业被称为“漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业”,近几年达到8％左右的增长速度,成为现代旅游业中发展最迅速的行业。与航空和酒店业一样,邮轮业具有收益管理的所有行业特征,可以看作是典型的收益管理行业。文章基于北美邮轮市场的实际数据,对邮轮收益管理的需求分布特征和存量分配问题进行了研究。首先,以邮轮公司特定航线的需求数据为基础,将实际数据与多种概论分布进行比较,来挖掘邮轮舱位水平上总需求的分布规律。研究表明,正态分布和伽玛分布能较好地拟合邮轮舱位总需求的分布特征。其次,以正态分布为例,基于EMSR—a和EMSR—b两种舱位分配算法,以某次航行的实际数据为基准需求,对高总需求和低总需求下分别考虑（1）高价格舱位高需求和（2）低价格舱位高需求的4种需求状况进行了模拟,并对两种存量分配方法的分配效果进行了比较。结果表明,两种方法分配效果的优劣取决于实际的需求状况。     

邮轮公司如何定价:基于北美市场的实证分析

近年来,邮轮产业的发展速度有目共睹,已经成为整个旅游和休闲业中发展最迅速的行业之一.与航空业和酒店业类似,邮轮业具有传统收益管理的行业特征:存量有限、易逝性产品、提前预订和需求不确定性等.收益管理中的动态定价理论与方法已经广泛应用于存量固定且易逝性产品特征的行业,从而帮助企业在有限的销售周期内最大化自身收益.文章通过分析目前北美邮轮市场的一般定价模式,提出了一种基于需求学习的动态价格调整策略.该方法通过一种两阶段框架为邮轮特定航线、未来航次的不同周期进行动态定价,从而在有限的销售时间内最大化未来的总收益.第一阶段,基于历史数据和当前数据确定未来航次不同周期的需求函数;第二阶段,以当前获得的需求函数为基础,确定未来航次不同周期的最优价格,并采用到下一周期的实际预订中.当预订完成且新一周期的需求数据被观测到后,需求函数按照第一阶段的方法再次更新.这一需求学习和价格调整过程循环发生,直到所有的航次都启航.最后,以北美邮轮公司的实际数据为例,进一步讨论了动态定价方法的实施过程.实证分析表明,该方法能在一定程度上提高邮轮公司的总收益.     

上海邮轮产业集群动力机制研究

本文通过深入分析邮轮经济的内涵和外延，运用产业集群理论和核心能力理论分析了上海发展邮轮业的可行性和必要性，揭示了上海发展邮轮经济的制约因素．最后提出形成产业集群的动力机制。     

The cruise industry in China: Efforts,progress and challenges

The cruise industry has evolved considerably and in recent years emerged to become one of the most rapidly developing segments of the global tourism industry, with millions of passengers cruising each year. On a global basis, the cruising sector is overwhelmed by North America. During recent years above average growth rates are reported in emerging cruise markets in the Asia Pacific region. As one of the core elements of the Asian cruise market, China is undergoing rapid growth in terms of both cruise ship visits and cruise tourists. However, limited research has been undertaken in regard to growth of cruising industry in China. The purpose of this article is to report current development of the cruise industry in mainland China. First, we briefly provide an overview of the worldwide cruise industry. Then, we summarize the history and the growth of the cruising sector in China; report characteristics of Chinese cruise passengers and compare them with others; highlight information on geographical distribution, berthing capacity and cruise business performance of each cruise port along China's coastlines; and introduce various cruise policy documents issued by Chinese governments. Finally, we discuss some issues, challenges and relevant managerial implications for developing this niche form of tourism in this country.     

Selecting a cruise port of call location using the fuzzy-AHP method: A case study in East Asia

Increasing income levels and greater leisure time give people the opportunity to pursue new types of tourism ventures. As one of the fastest growing areas in the leisure travel industry, the cruise industry is increasing rapidly. Due to the benefits that cruise tourism brings to each port of call and the hinterland, it is necessary to be able to analyze the factors that affect cruise lines' port selections. The main objective of this paper is to identify the main factors motivating cruise lines to select specific ports of call and to provide information to port operators that will enable them both to improve their management strategies and to attract more cruise ships, thereby contributing to the revenues of the port and regional economy.     

Examining strategies for maximizing and utilizing brand prestige in the luxury cruise industry

The purpose of this research was to examine the antecedents and consequences of brand prestige in the luxury cruise industry in order to provide luxury cruise managers with practical strategies for maximizing and utilizing brand prestige. Based on the existing theoretical background, it was hypothesized that eight types of cruise experience factors influence the formation of brand prestige: food quality, service quality, staff/crew attractiveness, entertainment, ship facilities, ports of call, programs/places for children, and cabin quality. In addition, it was proposed that brand prestige can result in three managerial outcomes: well-being perception, customer brand identification, and brand loyalty. A conceptual model was developed and tested using the empirical data collected from 330 U.S. luxury cruise passengers. The results showed that all of the proposed hypotheses were statistically supported. The key theoretical/managerial implications that were derived from the analysis are presented and discussed in the last part of the article.     

Marketing research and revenue optimization for the cruise industry: A concise review

This paper presents a concise review of the cruise industry mainly from marketing research and revenue optimization prospects. In recent years, the cruise industry has experienced an exciting growth. However, as one of the fastest growing and most profitable categories in the entire leisure market, this industry has hardly received any research attention. Given the limited academic articles, this paper presents a concise review about this budding research topic. First of all, a discussion about global cruise industry is conducted. Then, academic studies of the cruise industry on general marketing research, revenue management, itinerary design/optimization, optimal market segmentation, demand infiltration and economic issues are reviewed. Finally, some promising directions for future research are presented.     

Exploring Cruise Experiences,Satisfaction, and Loyalty: The Case of Aruba as a Small-Island Tourism Economy

In light of increasing global competition amongst international cruise destinations; growing demand for cruise tourism; and the lack of empirical studies on the “real” destination experience, satisfaction, and intentions to return and recommend (i.e., cruise destination loyalty), the current study investigates cruise visitor satisfaction, cruise destination experience, and the resulting behavioral intention as it relates to the cruise destination of Aruba, Dutch Caribbean. Because of increased reliance of small island economies on cruise tourism receipts and visitor expenditures, cruise ports throughout the Caribbean are seeking ways to improve the quality of destination services and experiences. Results indicate that cruise visitors are satisfied with their visit to Aruba and that overall destination experience in addition to satisfaction, were found to be significant predictors of cruise visitor loyalty.