Transfer prices and the structure of intra-firm trade

In this paper the structure of intra-firm trade within the context of transfer price manipulation by a multinational firm is endogenized. 'High' and 'low' values of host-country tax rates give rise to intra-firm trade in final goods and intermediate inputs, and 'intermediate' values of the tax rate are associated with intra-firm trade in either the intermediate inputs or the final goods only. Higher tariffs and stricter local content restrictions bias intra-firm trade towards intermediate-good trade and final-good trade, respectively. In the presence of endogenous transfer prices host-country sales may increase if the multinational faces stricter trade restrictions and higher host-country tax rates. JEL Classification: F23, F12
Prix de cession interne et structure du commerce itnra-firme. Ce mémoire endogénéise la structure du commerce intra-firme dans le contexte d'un modèle qui permet la manipulation du prix de cession interne par une firme plurinationale. Des taux de taxation hauts et bas par le pays hôte entraînent un commerce international intra-firme tant dans les biens finaux que dans les intrants intermédiaires; des taux moyens de taxation sont associés à un commere intra-firme soit dans les intrants intermédiaires, soit dans les biens finaux mais pas dans les deux. Des droits de douane élevés et des restrictions sur le contenu intérieur plus importantes créent des distorsions en faveur du commerce intra-firme dans les biens intermédiaires et dans les biens finaux respectivement. Quand il existe des prix de cession interne endogènes, les ventes de la firme nationale peuvent s'accroître si la firme plurinationale fait face à des restrictions au commerce plus importantes et à des taux de taxation plus élevés de la part du pays hôte.     

China's foreign trade policy and world trade organization membership

This paper provides an overview of China's major economic reforms and how they impacted certain key domestic economic indicators such as income, production, employment, and prices. More importantly, the paper concentrates on China's foreign trade focusing on such issues as import and export policies, exchange rate controls, foreign investments, balance of payments, traded commodities, and major trading partners. China's chance of becoming a member of the World Trade Organization is also addressed.     

Speculative trade, asset prices and investment levels

Summary. In this paper I consider a dynamically complete market model without intrinsic uncertainty. Agents' beliefs are different, but correct in the limit. Some agents are more patient than others. I show that infinitely often share prices are low and the economy stagnates. Also, infinitely often share prices are high and the economy grows. The changes from growth to stagnation and from stagnation to growth are not caused by exogenous shocks. They are caused by speculative trade among agents with different propensities to save and invest. Received: January 8, 2001; revised version: April 11, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation.     

Quotas and equilibrium relative prices in the trade restricting country

This paper is concerned with the effects of international trade restriction through quotas. It is shown that a casual relationship exists between the fraction of licences distributed domestically, the terms of trade, and the domestic relative price of the importable.     

Industry structure and trade policy under fluctuating import prices

When subsidies and tariffs are applied to imports with fluctuating prices, it is shown that the output response of domestic producers depends on market structure and their attitude toward risk. The domestic industry response is contrasted under two types of market structure, a monopoly and a competitive industry. Some unanticipated results suggest caution in the implementation of trade policy.     

Competitive trade models and real world features

Competitive small-dimension international trade models perform well in comparing free (or restrictive) trade with autarky, especially in emphasizing that consumption patterns can differ from production patterns and that production becomes highly concentrated while consumption patterns are expanded. Variations on these small-dimensional models can usefully show how with trade production patterns may nonetheless be more diverse and a country’s labor force become more heterogeneous in its skills. The paper illustrates how the Middle Products framework can be reinterpreted to support variety in production and in labor skills.      

Tariff rate quotas and the economic impact of agricultural trade liberalization in the world trade organization

Since their implementation at the Uruguay Round, tariff rate quotas (TRQs) have become a widely used instrument of trade policy in agricultural trade. With almost 1,300 TRQs scheduled at the World Trade Organization, this paper will examine their economic effects more closely. First, the theoretical background of TRQs is examined. Then, a short overview of the Uruguay Round and their institutional background is given. We demonstrate that official statistics, which do not count TRQs as nontariff barriers, are at least highly misleading. Very often, their effects are the same as those of regular quotas, including redistributive effects. The prominent example of the European banana regime is used to illustrate all of these points.A first draft of this paper was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany. The results are part of the research project "The Influence of the Institutional Design on the Actual Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization after GATT." Financial support by Volkswagen Stiftung is gratefully acknowledged.     

Global factor trade with differentiated factor prices and factor intensities

Abstract .  Relaxing the assumption of internationally identical factor intensity techniques in the HOV model creates two challenges. First, computing actual factor intensity techniques of different countries requires detailed input-output tables and factor usage data, which are not always available. Second, determinants of the factor intensity technique differences across countries need to be identified. This paper explores the role of relative factor price differences in the determination of factor intensity technique differences across countries and proposes an inferring method that infers factor intensity techniques of different countries based on relative factor price differences. The HOV model is then modified accordingly.     

Effects of trade diversion and trade creation of MERCOSUR on US and world apple markets

Apples are the third most valuable fruit in the United States and account for 18% of US fruit exports. Chile is a major competitor to the United States in the MERCOSUR market, since it is one of the leading apple producing countries and enjoys the tariff reductions as a member of MERCOSUR. Consequently, Chilean exports displace US exports in MERCOSUR. In addition, other MERCOSUR members import more from lower-cost Chile, leading to a reduction in production and an increase in consumption in these countries. This study develops a theoretical and an empirical model of world apple market to quantify the trade diversion and trade creation effects of the MERCOSUR free trade agreement and to estimate the welfare impacts.     

Impacts of price variations on the balance of world trade

A standard mathematical model of a trade market is considered, and the concept of an acceptable state of the market is introduced, which takes into account the requirements of all the partners. To evaluate the ‘distance’ between the acceptable and current states of the market, a special mathematical approach is developed. This approach has been found useful for correcting the price vector to bring the states closer together.     

Distance measures between free trade and autarky for the world economy

We develop a methodology to determine numerically how globalized the world economy is. We present a global general equilibrium model capturing major OECD economies and a residual rest of world for which alternative metrics of distance between observed, free trade and autarky equilibria can be developed. We use data for 2000 and report a number of distance measures between the 2000 observed trade restricted equilibrium and both free trade and autarky equilibria noting the absence of prior literature on metrics of distance between equilibria. The measures are used to determine the degree to which the world economy is globalized.     

Exchange rate volatility and US commodity trade with the rest of the world

Exchange rate volatility is argued to affect the trade flows negatively and positively. Indeed, empirical studies that have addressed the issue have supported both effects. These studies have used aggregate trade flows data either between one country and the rest of the world or between two countries at the bilateral level. Studies that have disaggregated trade data by industry are rare. Thus, we extend the literature by looking at the experiences of 66 American industries that trade with the rest of the world using monthly data. In most cases, trade flows are not affected by GARCH‐based volatility of the real effective exchange rate of the dollar.     

Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries

This paper investigates the return links and volatility transmission between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 2005-2010. We employ a recent generalized VAR-GARCH approach which allows for transmissions in return and volatility. In addition, we analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil-stock portfolio holdings. On the whole, our results point to the existence of substantial return and volatility spillovers between world oil prices and GCC stock markets, and appear to be crucial for international portfolio management in the presence of oil price risk.     

The evolution of the world trade web: a weighted-network analysis

This paper employs a weighted network approach to study the empirical properties of the web of trade relationships among world countries, and its evolution over time. We show that most countries are characterized by weak trade links; yet, there exists a group of countries featuring a large number of strong relationships, thus hinting to a core-periphery structure. Also, better-connected countries tend to trade with poorly-connected ones, but are also involved in highly-interconnected trade clusters. Furthermore, rich countries display more intense trade links and are more clustered. Finally, all network properties are remarkably stable across the years and do not depend on the weighting procedure.     

世界服务贸易自由化和我国的对策

“服务贸易”一词是从20世纪70年代后期才开始流行起来的一个贸易术语,它是相对货物贸易而言的,具有悠久的历史。国际服务贸易的计算通常以一国国际收支流量的统计程序为依据。世贸组织(WTO)成立以前进行的关贸总协定(GATT)第八轮多边贸易谈判——乌拉圭回合谈判达成了《服务贸     

Real exchange rates,asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a continuous-time two-country dynamic equilibrium model, in which the real exchange rates, asset prices, and terms of trade are jointly determined in the presence of nontradable goods. The model determines the relation between the financial markets and real goods markets in the world economy and their responses to various shocks under the home bias assumption. A positive domestic supply shock induces a positive return on the domestic asset markets and a deterioration of terms of trade that improves the foreign output and boosts the foreign asset markets. Demand shocks act in the opposite way. This model also analyses the impact of change in the relative price of nontradable to tradable goods on the terms of trade and asset markets. A higher productivity growth in tradable goods than in nontradable goods leads to a higher relative price of nontradable to tradable goods, which appreciates the real exchange rate, deteriorates the terms of trade, and depresses the domestic and foreign asset markets. A lower relative price of nontradable goods depreciates the real exchange rate, improves the terms of trade, and lifts both the domestic and foreign asset markets.     

Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence

In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the Penn World Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure of world trade and output, and the total number of GATT/WTO member countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as the Kennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and the Uruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus. We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy.     

The Pacific basin in world trade an analysis of changing trade patterns, 1955–1975

In two previous papers by the same authors the data basis for the trade flows and the export prices in the Pacific Basin has presented and documented. In this third report the changing pattern of Pacific Basin trade over the period 1955–1975 is analyzed, using as tools export growth decomposition indexes, trend analysis, and regression analysis of the price elasticity of import market shares.