The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

This paper presents evidence on the monetary transmission processin the euro area, based on macroeconomic data and on micro dataon banks. According to the estimations of macro vector autoregressionand macroeconometric models, a monetary policy tightening significantlyreduces output and—after a time lag—also prices.The effect on output is temporary, while that on prices is permanent.Clear patterns of significant asymmetries in the monetary policyeffects across countries do not emerge. The estimations basedon micro data on banks show that the main factor that determinesthe average bank's response to monetary policy is its degreeof liquidity: the lower its share of liquid assets in totalassets, the more strongly does a bank reduce its lending inresponse to a monetary tightening. Bank size does not emergeas an important factor for a bank's reaction to monetary policy.These results hold for virtually all member countries of theEuropean Monetary Union, despite the differences in their bankingsystems.     

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve

In this paper we apply a static version of a New Keynesian macromodel to a monetary union (see Bofinger et al., J Econ Educ, 37:98–117 (2006), Walsh, J Econ Educ, 33:333–346 (2002)). We show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents national interest rates from driving a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath.

经济复苏下的非常规货币政策退出——理论分析与中国的选择

本文从非常规货币政策退出的时机判断、策略选择、工具取舍和效果预测与评估等四个方面构建了一个经济复苏背景下的非常规货币政策退出的理论分析框架,在此基础上,对中国非常规货币政策退出中涉及的相关问题进行了探讨。研究表明,时机判断、退出策略、退出工具的选取以及效果预测和评估是非常规货币政策退出决策中相互依存、相互制约的四个有机组成部分。在经济复苏阶段,中国非常规货币政策退出的目标应是在维护币值稳定的基础上兼顾其他目标的实现。在退出的节奏上应循序渐进,在财政政策与货币政策的退出次序上应"先财政、后货币"。同时,应加强与其他国家间货币政策退出的协调与沟通,强化对非常规货币政策退出效果的预测和评估。     

最适度货币区理论与我国货币政策多元中介目标策略

“最适度货币区理论”对国际金融领域作出了突出的贡献，它同时提出了所谓“最适度货币区”的条件；区域内各经济体之间贸易关系密切，各种生产要素可自由流动，经济发展趋于平衡。在一些存在区域经济发展不一衡的国家，显然不能满足上述“最适度货币区”的条件，在此背景下，实行单一的货币政策会带来巨大的不良经济后果，本文就一问题进行了探讨，认为，应该推行组合政策策略。     

Cooperative Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area

This article discusses the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area. Though many observers suggest a fiscal union as the next step of euro-area constitutional reform, a federal fiscal union does not appear politically feasible in the short run. We suggest moving forward with cooperative monetary and fiscal institutions and policies that allow for decentralized fiscal decisions, while taking federal stabilization policies into account. This approach will increase the probability of survival of the euro area compared with the current fiscal arrangements. Using a dynamic macro model, counterfactual simulation paths of our cooperative solution are contrasted with time-series data for the euro area.     

The Euro as a Monetary Anchor in the CEECs

We study whether Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) have an incentive to use the euro as a monetary anchor. Adapting a cross-section estimation method initiated by Bayoumi and Eichengreen, we show that, compared to an optimum currency area standard, the CEECs have paid too much attention to the USD in the past and should prefer the euro to the dollar as a nominal anchor. Through a theoretical model that takes external constraints into account, we then show that the CEECs should also have an incentive to stabilize their currencies in real terms against a basket where the euro would be prominent.     

欧元区国家主权债务危机、欧元及欧盟经济

论文认为欧元区主权债务危机的基本性质属于南欧国家寅吃卯粮所导致的财政危机,但是由于欧元区在制度设置和运行机制上存在缺陷,使债务危机演变成欧元的信任危机。欧元区成员国和欧盟业已认识到欧洲货币联盟的不足,通过加强财政政策一体化来克服欧元区的内在矛盾似乎不可避免。欧元不会因为主权债务危机的冲击而垮台,但是欧洲经济将受到债务危机的拖累,增长前景不容乐观。     

欧元区经济：微弱复苏

欧盟统计局10月7日发布数据显示,经修订后,欧元区第二季度GDP季降0.2%,年降4.8%。之前经济学家预期中值为季降0.1%年降4.7%;第一季度GDP季降2.5%,年降4.9%。欧元区第二季度经济收缩略多于预期,     

New Findings on Firm Investment and Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area

In this paper we present comparative results on the determinantsof firms' investment and their link to monetary policy. Theresults have been obtained by the Eurosystem Monetary TransmissionNetwork. This network has produced a series of papers in whichthe use of micro data permits estimating and quantifying therelevance of two channels of monetary policy transmission: theinterest-rate and the broad-credit channels. The research findingsprovide evidence of an operative interest-rate channel in allcountries examined. Moreover, the results indicate that variableswhich proxy firms' financial conditions play a role. Firms characterizedby weaker balance sheets show higher liquidity sensitivity.     

中美“宽松”货币政策、通胀预期与货币规则的探讨

2008年10月以来,中美两国均采取了不同程度的"宽松"货币政策来应对源于美国金融危机的全球经济衰退。本文的研究显示,2008年,中美两国货币供应量M1和M2增长率是相似的;2008年底到2009年8月,中国的M1和M2增长率分别为20.6%和21.4%,而美国的M1和M2增长率仅为3.36%和2.14%,中国的通胀预期是市场对"超级宽松"货币政策的合理反应。在过去的一年间,中国货币当局对美国金融危机的反应比美国的政策干预更为积极。而货币供应量的高增长孕育着价格上涨的风险,货币政策应当从被动协调美国的相机抉择转向遵循货币数量规则,抑制通胀预期,以实现宏观经济的稳定增长。     

Optimal Monetary Policy in China

Using the structural vector autoregression model, we estimate the current responses of monetary policy to contemporaneous shocks from macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that the People's Bank of China responded to inflation and output changes, but did not react to asset price fluctuations during the period from January 1997 to March 2010. The optimal monetary responses to exogenous shocks are also examined. It is revealed that using asset prices to formulate monetary policy would not help to improve monetary authorities' performance in lowering the volatilities of output growth and inflation while keeping output growth and inflation in their safety zones. The effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in reacting to external shocks is also discussed.     

Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.

Communication and Monetary Policy

Recent trends toward greater central bank independence and theadoption of formal inflation targeting by several countrieshave served to emphasize the importance of communication policy.In this paper, we explore some of the economic effects of publicinformation that arise whenever public information serves thedual role of conveying fundamental information as well as servingas a focal point for better coordination. More precise publicinformation is a double-edged tool. While it is very effectivein influencing actions through coordination, sometimes it canbe too effective, and coordinate actions away from fundamentals.