Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.JEL Classification Number: F13     

国际贸易机制对国内武装冲突影响的研究——基于回归断点设计的数量分析(1946-2009年)

国际机制不仅影响国家行为体,也影响国家层面之下的非国家行为体,并作用于两类行为体间的互动。作为最为成熟也是影响范围最为广泛的国际机制之一,国际贸易机制一方面通过机制功能作用于国内政治中的国家行为体与非国家行为体,另一方面施加影响于贸易议题从而刺激国内各行为体之间的互动。无论是机制还是贸易都与国际和平战争研究紧密相关,如"贸易和平论"与"国际制度和平论"。基于国际原因与国内产出之间的关系,国际贸易机制如何影响国内政治,特别是影响国内冲突的爆发风险?通过回归断点设计(RDD)与Logit回归分析,1946-2009年之间的国际贸易机制(关贸总协定/世界贸易组织)数据及国内武装冲突数据显示,关贸总协定/世界贸易组织成员资格的确能够在整体上显著降低国内武装冲突发生的可能性;但是,在分别控制经济因素、政治因素、社会因素、贸易因素和外部因素之后,实证结果显示国际贸易机制对各国国内冲突风险实际上是一种条件性的混合影响。     

China and the World Trade Organization

For nine long years China made determined but unsuccessful efforts to rejoin GATT, having gone through 21 rounds of protracted negotiations. China failed to become a founding member of WTO when it superseded GATT in January 1995. In 1989 GATT was about to work out the final terms of protocol for China's entry as a reforming socialist economy. But the Tiananmen event made the developed country members, led by the US, politicize the issue of China's membership. They also wanted to prise open the vast China market as a condition for China's entry; i.e. China to be admitted as a developed economy. China for its part regarded the price of its WTO membership as too exorbitant without being allowed a reasonable timetable for adjustment. Minister Wu Yi considered the US demands ‘absolutely unacceptable’. Hence the impasse over China's WTO membership continued. Apart from the imperative of trade diplomacy, however, the perceived benefits of WTO membership to China are difficult to capture. They are mainly general and long-term in nature, e.g. facilitating China's further economic reform and integrating China into the global economy. However, the costs and risks to China could be considerable, much depending on the exact protocol terms of China's membership. In general many state-owned enterprises and township-village enterprises would suffer from stiffer foreign competition. The effect of WTO on Chinese agriculture would be minimal, while the impact on the manufacturing sector could be quite disruptive. The service sector could fare even worse if no protective measures were to be taken. That explains why China needs to insist on developing-country terms of entry. Without doubt, China will eventually accede to WTO. It is a gross anomaly for this global multilateral trade body to continue excluding China, the world's 11th largest trading nation, on which also hinge the two other great trading entities of Hong Kong and Taiwan. There is increasing awareness of this point in the EU; and it will sooner or later also prevail in Washington.     

Antidumping as Strategic Trade Policy under Asymmetric Information

Trade liberalization under GATT/World Trade Organization (WTO) has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection, possibly due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping. This article investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework, in which the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. We show that by designing a tariff schedule contingent on firms' cost reports and accompanied by a threat to collect additional information for report verification, the domestic government may not only be able to extract the true cost information, but also succeed in implementing the full‐information, governmental welfare‐maximizing duty. The antidumping framework within GATT/WTO may thus not only offer the means to pursue strategic trade policy disguised as fair trade policy, but it also helps overcome informational problems with regard to correctly determining the optimal strategic trade policy.     

贸易自由化进程的国家利益分析

文章以国家利益为视角,分析从GATT到WTO的贸易自由化进程,说明国家利益是贸易自由化的内在动力,中国在贸易自由化进程中既要遵循国际惯例,更要遵循“国家利益原则”。     

The 'Enfant Terrible': Australia and the Reconstruction of the Multilateral Trade system, 1946–8

In recent years Australia has been recognized as a prominent player in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). Less well known is Australia's activism during the establishment of the GATT. This article, based on archival sources and contemporary accounts, examines Australia's role in the birth of the multilateral trade system. It seeks to nuance the two conventional interpretations of this period, the first which argues that countries joined the GATT because it was in their economic interests to do so, and the second which suggests that the United States hegemony imposed its trade liberalization objectives on less powerful allies and trade partners.     

Fighting the Tide: Alternative Trade Organizations in the Era of Global Free Trade

This paper explores the proliferation of Fair Trade organizations, their products, services and client groups in order to establish the impact of this movement. Although small in volume, alternative trade represents a unique response to the relentless pursuit of free trade through the GATT/WTO process. The economic underpinnings of both Fair Trade and subsidy programs in general (such as the EU's Stabilization of Exchange system) are evaluated. Ultimately, alternative trade can provide significant assistance to targeted groups within developing countries, including gains in production and export proficiency. On the negative side, Fair Trade is likely to prolong the dependence of developing countries on products with poor future prospects.     

WTO框架下保障措施的起源与演化

保障措施是WTO框架下与反倾销、反补贴并列的贸易救济手段，已成为成员方开放条件下市场准入扩大过程中实施的经济安全阀。本文拟从探寻保障措施产生的制度根源出发，考察其在多边贸易体制框架中的变迁轨迹，分析在GATT期间和WTO成立以来的实施特点，并对保障措施制度的历史演进尝试了一种新经济史学的解释。     

Effects of Tariffication: Tariffs and Quotas under Monopolistic Competition

Recent rounds of GATT and later WTO have advocated widespread tariffication, meaning that existing non-tariff barriers be converted into import equivalent tariffs. From an economic point of view, the effects of such tariffication are not entirely clear. The paper presents a trade model with monopolistic competition to examine the welfare effects of tariffication. The ranking of pre- and post-tariffication welfare crucially depends on the nature of the initial trade barrier and the tariff tool applied. Tariffication using a specific (ad valorem) tariff results in the same (reduced) welfare level compared to an initial sold quota, whereas welfare is increased (the same) compared to an initial shared quota.     

Changes in Chinese Competitiveness in Major Food Products: Implications for WTO Membership

Chinese entry to the WTO in December 2001 marks a new phase in agricultural trade, both nationally and globally. After a context review of Chinese agriculture and WTO-related policy issues, this paper first uses a Balassa index approach to examine China's relative competitiveness in some major food products over the period since 1985, followed by an analysis of price-cost ratios and production cost structures for these products. It is found that China has revealed comparative advantages in meat products but disadvantages in cereals. With limited land resources, its production and trade competitiveness has declined despite rapid substitution of capital for labour, due to a marked rise in relative labour price in agriculture. In the long run, it is expected that WTO membership will boost Chinese agricultural trade, but its impact on competitiveness will probably depend more on production costs, and will differ between crops and animal products.     

国际贸易中劳工标准之争的博弈分析及中国对策

劳工标准问题产生已久,在GATT和WTO多边体制中的历史也可以说是源远流长,但一直没有达到当前这么高的重视程度。近年来,发达国家以关注人权为理由,反复提出劳工标准问题,并极力把劳工标准与国际贸易挂钩。本文在研究国际贸易中劳工标准争端的发展历程的基础上,分析了发达国家与发展中国家对此问题的不同立场,并进一步分析了两种立场博弈可能产生的结果,最后阐述了我国在劳工标准问题上的原则以及对策。     

Explaining rising regionalism and failing multilateralism: consensus decision-making and expanding WTO membership

The beleaguered progress of the Doha Development Agenda of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presents something of a puzzle for economic theory: if multilateralism is an effective forum for liberalisation (as it has been in the past), then why have the current round of talks faltered amid the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs)? This paper builds a ‘hub and spoke’ version of the Maggi (Am Econ Rev 89(1):190–213, 1999) model of trade negotiations to shows that the combination of the WTO single-undertaking and consensus decision-making principles with an expanded and more diverse membership can render multilateralism less desirable for hub countries than bilateralism. It is argued that these principles give spoke countries de facto veto power meaning that their threat point during WTO negotiations is a reversion to PTA negotiations between all parties. Accordingly, spoke countries with relatively less to gain from the WTO can use their veto power to extract gains from those that would benefit substantially. If an expanding WTO membership has increased the number of such countries, then the benefits of multilateralism versus regionalism from the perspective of hub counties may have been diminished to such an extent that they are no longer willing to wait for the conclusion of the Doha round before engaging in PTA negotiations.     

Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study

At the same time as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been encouraging trade liberalized, there has been a proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). These RTAs also aim to reduce trade barriers, but they do so it in a preferential way. There is continued debate as to whether such RTAs are an effective way of achieving free trade, or if increased trade among members causes less trade with non-member countries? If RTAs increase total trade, this is known as ‘trade creation’, whereas if the extra trade occurs at the expense of non-members, this is called ‘trade diversion’. Trade creation implies improved welfare, whereas ‘trade diversion’ may adversely affect welfare. This paper examines five different RTAs using a gravity model to see if they have been trade creating or trade diverting. Annual data from 26 countries covering five RTAs in the Asia and Pacific region for the years 1980–2000 was used.The results show that the effects of the different RTAs varied remarkably. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) fostered greater trade with trading partners and with the rest of the world. While the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) tended to be trade diverting, that is, they expanded intra-bloc trade at the expense of trade with others.     

WTO成员资格是否有效地降低了成员的关税水平?——来自1991～2010年WTO153个成员和62个非成员的经验证据

文章通过构建两个能够反映WTO成员资格的指标,实证检验了1991～2010年间WTO153个成员、62个非成员,加入WTO之后这一成员资格在削减关税税率方面的有效性。结果发现,仅从关税税率角度看,WTO成员资格的获得将具有平均而言2.62%～3.41%的关税削减效应;从时间上来看,获得WTO成员资格的时间每延长一年,大约能给成员带来0.22%～0.34%的关税削减幅度;穷国加入WTO后,其关税削减的幅度将更大,且WTO成员资格对成员关税税率的累积影响在获得该资格后的第八年到第十年达到最大,另外,在这一WTO资格获得之前,它也具有较强的关税削减效应。这证明了WTO成员资格对各成员关税削减方面的重大现实意义,对于今后的WTO成员资格谈判等也具有理论指导意义。     

Best practices for regional trade agreements

Complicated web of hub-and-spoke type of overlapping free trade agreements (FTAs) can result in high costs for verifying rules of origin (RoO) and trade diversion or suppression effects. This paper attempts to provide best practices for regional trade agreements (RTAs) to enhance global free trade by mitigating these negative effects. By adopting a gravity regression analysis, we quantitatively estimate the trade creation and diversion effects of cumulated RoO (bilateral, diagonal, and full cumulation) for RTAs established under GATT Article XXIV and under the Enabling Clause. We find that (i) RTAs, in general, create trade among members and divert trade from nonmembers, whereby the net trade-enhancing effect is rather weak; (ii) RTAs should be established under the comprehensive GATT Article XXIV, rather than the piecemeal Enabling Clause; and (iii) full cumulation is the most optimal provision in terms of creating the most intra-bloc trade and diverting the least extra-bloc trade. Overall, we strongly suggest that RTAs should employ full cumulation of RoO under GATT Article XXIV.     

U.S.–Japan and U.S.–China trade conflict: Export growth,reciprocity, and the international trading system

First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper we focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. We describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. We then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, we compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes.     

Globalization and Regionalization – Taiwan's Perspective

If Taiwan becomes a member of GATT, she can pursue the multilateral free trade agreement provided by the GATT framework. Nonetheless, regionalism is rising. Taiwan may be able to benefit from the great potential of the single European market. However, this prospect is diluted by the EC's concentration on intraregional trade and its frequent use of protectionist measures. The development of NAFTA will not have a substantial diversion effect on Taiwan, though the situation may vary from industry to industry. A Pacific free trade area should be an objective for countries in this region. However, a flexible strategy should be adopted in order to reach that goal. This is especially true for Taiwan.     

Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade

In this paper we examine the impact of membership in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962–2000 we find that membership in a PTA is associated with an increase in the extent of intra-industry trade. Our results indicate that this is especially the case for PTAs formed between richer countries, with the effects of PTAs between poorer countries found to be smaller.     

The impact of tariff reductions on firm dynamics and productivity in China: Does market-oriented transition matter?

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics and productivity in the context of dramatic tariff reductions after China's accession to the WTO, and how this impact varies across regions with different marketization levels. Our results show that (a) on average, output tariff reductions tend to reduce firm entry rate and increase firm exit rate, while input tariff reductions help to increase both firm entry rate and exit rate, furthermore, regional marketization strengthens the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics; (b) trade liberalization exerts greater impact on the likelihood of exit for the least productive firms while it tends to reduce the probability of exit for the more productive firms, with regional marketization strengthening such a reallocation process of trade liberalization; (c) firm dynamics effect contributes approximately 43% of the growth of productivity, and it (especially the firm exit effect) is an important channel through which trade liberalization fosters productivity growth, and domestic market reform is found to strengthen such an impact.     

在WTO框架下对进口内涵碳产品征收碳税的可行性探讨

由于在同类产品间造成了差别待遇,所以对进口内涵碳产品征收碳税违背了GATT第1条最惠国待遇原则和第3条国民待遇原则。因此,要想在WTO框架内采取此类措施,就必须保证其符合GATT第20条例外条款的规定。其中最为关键的就是,此类措施对同类产品给予差别待遇的依据应仅限于产品的碳含量,而不应扩展至其他方面,如产品的出口国等。此外,WTO成员方在采取此类措施时还应确保基本的公正和正当程序,以保障相关进出口商和出口国的正当权益。