辽源市社会系统的脆弱性及其规避措施

脆弱性理论是研究人地耦合系统脆弱性的重要理论工具。将脆弱性应用于矿业城市社会系统研究中,提出矿业城市社会系统脆弱性内涵。以吉林省辽源市为例,分析辽源市社会系统脆弱性特征和影响因素,选取1990-2007年共18个评价样本,对辽源市社会系统敏感性、恢复力、脆弱性进行评价分析,结果表明:辽源市社会系统的敏感性缓慢下降,恢复力增长较快,系统脆弱性不断下降。最后,根据社会系统脆弱性、敏感性、恢复力的时序演化过程,提出辽源市社会系统脆弱性的规避措施。     

CORPORATE AND SOCIAL ACCOUNTING FOR PETROLEUM

Present national accounting conventions regarding the treatment of flows and stocks in the petroleum sector are considered to be unsatisfactory. But changes in reporting requirements for oil and gas producers open up possibilities for a more satisfactory treatment.
In this article some aspects of the newly adopted requirements are presented and the possible uses of the additional information available for improving social accounts are discussed.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC‐PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS AND ANALYSIS OF THEIR SOCIAL VALUE*

ABSTRACT: This article applies political economy theory to public‐private partnerships (PPPs). First, we propose that social welfare is the appropriate normative evaluation criterion to evaluate the social value of PPPs. Second, we specify the goals of PPP participants, including private‐sector partners and governments. Third, we review the observed outcomes of PPPs and analyze them from both a political economy perspective and a social welfare perspective. Fourth, based on a comparison of the actual outcomes of PPPs to normatively desirable social welfare outcomes, we propose some ‘rules for governments’ concerning the design of government PPP institutions and the management of PPPs. We argue that if governments were to adopt these rules there would be fewer PPPs in total, they would be more like traditional government contracts and there would be a greater likelihood of improved social welfare. However, political economy theory also explains why implementation of any reform will be difficult.     

EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS OF EQUILIBRIUM FOR A SPATIAL MODEL OF SOCIAL INTERACTIONS*

We extend Beckmann's spatial model of social interactions to the case of a two‐dimensional spatial economy with a large class of utility functions, accessing costs, and space‐dependent amenities. We show that spatial equilibria derive from a potential functional. By proving the existence of a minimizer of the functional, we obtain that of spatial equilibrium. Under mild conditions on the primitives of the economy, the functional is shown to satisfy displacement convexity. Moreover, the strict displacement convexity of the functional ensures the uniqueness of equilibrium. Also, the spatial symmetry of equilibrium is derived from that of the primitives of the economy.     

THE CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF MEASURES OF HOUSEHOLD WELFARE AND THEIR IMPLIED SURVEY DATA REQUIREMENTS*

This paper outlines a conceptual basis for the measurement and analysis of levels of welfare. It reflects the thinking that has been ongoing in the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study. Three alternative approaches to the measurement of welfare for the purpose of ranking households are surveyed, and the data requirements and analytical techniques for each highlighted. Various issues are discussed regarding the causal analysis of welfare levels and the changes in them. It is argued that the consideration of several dynamic aspects of welfare is significant for the identification of the poor and the potentially poor and for more accurate measurement of levels of living between socioeconomic groups.     

ALLOWING FOR JUMP MEASUREMENTS IN VOLATILITY: A HIGH‐FREQUENCY FINANCIAL DATA ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL STOCKS

Following recent advances in the non‐parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous jump part of the quadratic variation process for individual stocks and incorporate it into heterogeneous autoregressive volatility models. We analyse the distributional properties of the jump measures vis‐à‐vis the corresponding realized volatility ones, and compare them to those of aggregate US market index series. We also demonstrate important gains in the forecasting accuracy of high‐frequency volatility models.     

SOCIAL PROTECTION ACCOUNTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The development of social protection accounts is described and the relationship between social security and welfare expenditure (as recorded in social protection accounts) and expenditures in the national accounts is discussed. Proposals are put forward for achieving co-ordination between social protection expenditure and expenditure recorded in the national accounts, and these are illustrated by reference to Irish data. The future development of social protection accounts by the inclusion of fiscal benefits, which are not recorded in the national accounts, is also considered. Finally some references are made to the use of the social protection accounts and the development of data relating o the numbers of persons covered by social protection and the numbers of beneficiaries.     

发达地区与欠发达地区旅游社会承载力比较

从地方经济发达程度的角度,通过对广州、深圳、肇庆、惠州、泉州、张家界等8个旅游城市的调查统计,分析发达地区和相对欠发达地区旅游社会承载力的差异与共性,从而为西部地区和沿海地区的旅游社会管理提供参考.重点解决了不同发达程度城市居民感知度的异同比较和不同发达程度城市不同社会利益群体稳定性比较的问题.最后根据3组不同发达程度的城市居民感知数据,建立了一个关于旅游城市社会承载力的居民感知预警模型.     

常州市城市空间数据基础设施建设

在分析数据库系统内部功能、确定功能和数据之间的关联以及进行各种数据的组织的基础上,阐述了常州市数字城市空间数据基础设施(CSDI)建设的总体设计思想,介绍了作为核心部分的基础空间数据库的结构设计。然后结合常州市近年来CSDI基础数据库建设和应用的成果,分析了常州市CSDI空间数据的特点,并指出目前常州CSDI建设中存在的不足与今后的发展方向。     

POTENTIALS FOR AND BARRIERS TO BUILDING ENERGY CONSERVATION IN CHINA

China is distinct among developing countries in that it has significant heating loads over much of the country. Because nearly half of the urban residential buildings are located in climates colder than that of Washington state, the already large demand for space heating will skyrocket if the current building boom continues. Space heating energy use, excluding that for hotels and offices catering to foreigners, is constrained by mandated coal allocations resulting in partially heated buildings with indoor temperatures significantly below design conditions.
This underheating, to a significant extent, masks the energy savings obtained from more energy-efficient boilers and building designs. Even so, computer simulations show that such conservation strategies can reduce current energy use by 40 percent, while dramatically raising indoor temperatures. Economic calculations comparing energy savings with increased construction costs are skewed by the unmet heating loads as well as by government-subsidized coal prices that are below actual costs. From the perspective of building owners and managers, building energy conservation still is economically attractive in the cold Northeast– where the cost of conserved coal is half that of the subsidized coal price – but is difficult to justify in terms of economic payback in Beijing or Shanghai.     

我国农民工养老保障制度安排及其创新

目前,我国农民工养老保障基本上仍处于低保障状态,其原因主要在于没有形成全国统一层面的农民工养老保障制度安排,致使各地政策之间缺乏衔接,制度运行绩效较低。因此,农民工养老保障制度的构建应该坚持灵活性原则,同时兼顾效率与公平。应建立全国层面的可转移、可持续、完全积累且富有弹性的新型农民工养老保障制度,为今后实现城乡养老保障的对接创造一个良好的制度平台。     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF NEW AND DISAPPEARING GOODS USING SCANNER DATA

With the "discovery" of scanner data by statistical agencies and researchers comes a wealth of new information upon which price index calculations can be based. Old problems, such as the appearance and disappearance of goods over time, are likely to be an important feature of such data. However, given that scanner data includes the prices and quantities of the population of transactions we have more information than is traditionally available to deal with the new and disappearing goods problem. We adopt a recently developed approach using the Constant Elasticity of Substitution cost function to provide a detailed empirical analysis of the effects of new and disappearing goods for an Australian scanner data set of supermarket products. Our results indicate that the failure to account for new and disappearing goods in the cost-of-living index leads to a significant upward bias.     

THE INTEGRATION OF MACRO AND MICRO DATA FOR THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR1

National accounts in their present form do not serve very well as a framework for microdata, largely because of differing concepts and coverage in the macro and micro data. This article identifies the differences in sectoring and the handling of imputations and attributions between macro and micro data, and then proposes a form of presentation of the macro accounts that will facilitate their integration. Data for the United States in 1980 are used as an illustrative example. The final section explores the consequences of the proposed alterations in the macro accounts for the analysis of saving and investment and the accumulation and distribution of wealth, using U.S. data for the period since 1947. The article concludes that the proposed alterations do lead to new analytical insights, and further, that in their present form the national accounts are both misleading and inadequate.     

THE SIGNIFICANCE AND USE OF LONG-RANGE ACTUARIAL COST ESTIMATES FOR THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM

This paper describes the methodology underlying the actuarial cost estimates for the Social Security program and the assumptions needed therefor. With this as a background, the use to which these estimates is made in developing legislation is described, with emphasis on the current financing problems. Finally, various possible solutions to these problems are discussed. These solutions involve either increasing the income of the program or decreasing the rate of growth of its outgo. Increased income could be derived by increasing the payroll tax rates, by injecting general revenues (either directly or indirectly, such as taxing Social Security benefits and putting the proceeds in the trust funds or financing part of all of the Hospital Insurance program from general revenues and moving some of its payroll tax rate to the cash-benefits program), or by covering government employees who are not now covered. The growth of outgo could be reduced by changes in the cost-of-living adjustments of benefits, by gradually increasing the normal retirement age, or by gradually decreasing the relative benefit level