The Effectiveness of Alternative Marketing Strategies for Ontario Corn and Soybean Producers

Marketing decisions can be some of the most difficult decisions facing grain and oilseed producers. There is a lack of information about the marketing strategies that are most effective, and there is also a lack of consensus in the literature about whether some types of marketing strategies can consistently perform better than others. This paper uses a simulation model based on daily cash and futures prices to compare returns and risk over time from specific marketing strategies for corn and soybean producers in Ontario. This paper also examines whether there are differences in the relative effectiveness of strategies between higher‐price years and lower‐price years. The results indicate that preharvest marketing strategies for both corn and soybeans tend to generate prices that are much higher than selling everything at harvest (the baseline strategy), particularly for the higher‐price years; however, these differences are not always statistically significant. Preharvest strategies are also found to reduce downside risk relative to the baseline. Les décisions commerciales peuvent représenter certaines des décisions les plus difficiles auxquelles les producteurs de céréales et d’oléagineux sont confrontés. Il existe un manque d’information sur les stratégies commerciales les plus efficaces et un manque de consensus dans la littérature quant à l’existence ou non de stratégies commerciales capables de donner régulièrement de meilleurs résultats que d’autres. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation fondé sur les prix au comptant et les prix à terme quotidiens afin de comparer, au fil du temps, les rendements et les risques des stratégies commerciales qui sont spécifiques aux producteurs de maïs et de soja de l’Ontario. Nous avons aussi tenté de déterminer s’il existe ou non des écarts d’efficacité relative des stratégies entre les années où les prix sont élevés et les années où les prix sont faibles. Nos résultats indiquent que, dans le cas du maïs et du soja, la stratégie commerciale qui consiste à vendre la production avant la récolte tend à dégager des prix plus élevés que la stratégie commerciale qui consiste à vendre toute la production au moment de la récolte (stratégie de base), particulièrement dans le cas des années où les prix sont élevés. Cependant, ces écarts ne sont pas toujours statistiquement significatifs. Les stratégies de vente avant récolte contribueraient également à réduire le risque de perte en cas de baisse comparativement à la stratégie de base.     

The Impact of Local Ethanol Production on the Corn Basis in Ontario

This paper investigates the factors affecting the corn basis in Ontario with particular emphasis on the effect of ethanol production given the projected detrimental effect its expansion could have on the red meat sector. We estimate a location‐specific and panel vector error correction models (VECM) for seven elevators in Ontario from 2006 to 2013. We find a long‐run equilibrium relationship exists between the basis and factors affecting local supply and demand including ethanol capacity and that the direction of causality is from these factors to changes in corn price. A one‐time increase in ethanol capacity of 100 million liters is projected to increase the basis by approximately 30 cents per bushel within two years. However, the impact is insignificant for elevators located in the livestock‐intensive regions of the province. The demand for corn as livestock feed is a determinant of the local corn price for all elevators. The decline in the number of hogs and beef cattle along with the 50% increase in corn supply have resulted in the observed decline in the local corn price despite the significant increase in demand from ethanol. L'impact de la production locale d′éthanol sur le prix de base du maïs en Ontario Cet article cherche à comprendre les facteurs ayant un effet sur le prix de base du maïs en Ontario, en particulier sur les effets de la production d′éthanol étant donné les effets négatifs attendus sur le secteur de la viande rouge causés par son expansion. Nous estimons des modèles vectoriels à correction d'erreurs (MVCE) à emplacements précis et panel entre 2006 et 2013, pour 7 silos‐élévateurs en Ontario. Nous constatons une relation d′équilibre à long terme entre le prix de base et les facteurs ayant un effet sur l'offre et la demande locale incluant la capacité pour l′éthanol. Nous constatons aussi que le sens de la causalité passe de ces facteurs aux changements du prix du maïs. L'on s'attend à voir une augmentation d'environ 30 cents du prix de base du boisseau suivant l'augmentation unique de 100 millions de litres de la capacité d′éthanol. Par contre, l'impact est négligeable pour les silos‐élévateurs situés dans les régions d′élevage intensif de la province. La demande pour le maïs comme aliment pour le bétail est un facteur déterminant du prix local du maïs pour tous les silos‐élévateurs. Le déclin du porc et des bovins ainsi que l'augmentation de 50 % de l'offre de maïs ont mené à la diminution notée du prix du maïs local malgré l'augmentation significative de la demande pour l′éthanol.     

Impact of Genetically Engineered Varieties on the Cost Structure of Corn and Soybean Production in Canada

This paper investigates the impact of genetically engineered (GE) varieties on the cost structure of corn and soybean production in Canada. Employing an adoption index for each farm and a time trend with farm‐level data on production costs of grain corn and soybeans from 2000 to 2007, a translog cost function and the associated input‐share equations are estimated. The use of the adoption index improves the estimates of technological change and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth. The results demonstrate that the adoption of GE corn and soybean reduced the variable costs of production by 0.62% per year. The MFP of corn and soybean grew by 2.0% per year during the study period, and 31% of this growth is attributable to GE varieties of these crops. The results also reveal that the adoption of GE varieties reduced the cost shares of fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, and machinery in corn and soybean production. While the adoption of GE varieties increased the cost shares of seeds and custom works including labor, only the former was statistically significant.     

稻农生产的经济行为差异分析--以湖北省五县为例

本文从定性和定量的角度将农户分为三个等级 ,根据计量经济原理 ,运用OAXACA分解分析方法 ,选择农户水稻生产中的可控制变量对其进行分析 ,以找出形成农户水稻生产行为差异的主要影响因素。并在此分析基础上 ,提出增加稻农收入的政策建议和途径。     

A Composed-Error Model for Estimating Pest-Damage Functions and the Impact of the Western Corn Rootworm Soybean Variant in Illinois

We describe a composed-error model for estimating pest-damage functions. The composed-error model, originally developed to account for statistical noise when estimating technical efficiency, removes the effect of experimental errors when estimating the variance of yield loss from pest damage. As a result, the estimated variance of yield loss is often less than for a conventional model, which has economic implications when the analysis incorporates risk aversion. We find that, depending on the level of risk aversion, the western corn rootworm soybean variant reduces farmer certainty-equivalent returns 16–26% more with a conventional model than with the composed-error model.     

Economic Analysis of the Policy for Accreditation of Dairy Farms Free of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis: Challenges for Small and Large Producers in Brazil

One of the cornerstones of the National Program for Control and Eradication of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis in Brazil is the voluntary accreditation of free herds. We developed a stochastic cost–benefit analysis model for two types of dairy herds (high yield Holstein‐Zebu crossbred females and lower productivity smaller scale herds) to identify the technical and economic constraints of this process. The initial prevalence of infected animals and the impact of the disease in the structure and performance of the herd were derived from secondary data. Information on the costs and benefits of herd sanitation were compiled into a cost–benefit model at the herd level. The last step consisted of a scenario simulation to evaluate the impact of alternative policies to the certification process. For each scenario, we calculate the probability over time of a Benefit–Cost Ratio greater than 1 and of an Internal Rate of Return above 1% (the discount rate used in the model). Results show that larger and more intensive dairy farms, and also herds affected by brucellosis compared with tuberculosis‐positive herds, are more likely to achieve financial gains from the certification investment. The compensation for culled animals is important in the initial phase of herd sanitation and the premium payment on milk would help farmers to achieve a return on the investment over time. The model can be adapted to different and dynamic production, epidemiological and economic settings.     

风险承载力、政策规制对宅基地退出意愿的影响研究 ——基于拓展计划行为理论的分析框架

研究目的：基于拓展计划行为理论探究风险承载力与政策规制对宅基地退出意愿作用机理的区域差异，以期寻求差异化的宅基地退出方案。研究方法：结构方程模型。研究结果：（1）风险承载力对宅基地退出意愿的影响符合倒“U”型特征。（2）政策规制对宅基地退出意愿的影响存在异质性。引导性规范在政策规制对退出意愿激励时占主导，而模范性规范在政策规制对退出意愿约束时占主导。（3）宿迁风险承载力对宅基地退出意愿的影响路径包括直接正向影响和以行为态度、知觉行为控制为中介的间接正向影响，政策规制是退出意愿的负向指标。徐州风险承载力、政策规制均对退出意愿有正向影响。苏州风险承载力位于负反馈阶段，政策规制正向影响退出意愿。常州风险承载力对退出意愿负向影响，政策规制对退出意愿的影响路径包括直接负向影响和以行为态度、主观规范为中介的间接负向影响。研究结论：政府应制定差异化的宅基地退出程序，完善风险补偿机制，强化农户风险意识，充分考虑农户利益诉求，遵循间接引导性的行动逻辑，促进宅基地退出意愿向行为的转化。     

Competition Policy and Food Sector in the European Union

The article reviews the enforcement of the EU competition policy in the food sector in order to evaluate its actual ability to promote a fair and efficient food supply. Competition policy is scrutinized stemming from the different perspectives offered by 3 antitrust schools, namely, the Harvard, the Chicago, and the post-Chicago Schools. The main finding of the article is that with reforms carried out in the 1990s, EU competition policy has followed the shift that occurred in the United States since the late 1970s from the traditionalist Harvard School to the Chicago and post-Chicago Schools of antitrust. The general effect of this shift has been a significant drop in antitrust enforcement and merger control activity. As a consequence, currently competition policy is not able to tackle the wide range of social and economic problems associated with the overwhelming power of large agrofood corporations.     

Supply Management in Canadian Agriculture: An Assessment of the Economic Effects

Marketing boards with supply management powers have become part of Canadian agriculture, yet whether these boards improve society's welfare is a much-debated issue. This paper reviews both the methodology and the empirical results of studies which have assessed the effects of supply management. All of the studies reviewed show that there is a sizeable income transfer from consumers to producers along with a misallocation of resources as a result of supply management. However, one could easily reverse these conclusions by changing the assumptions upon which past research has rested. Furthermore, additional research is needed on supply management in the context of both a rent-seeking framework and from an industrial organization point of view.
Les commissions de commercialisation possédant des pouvoirs sur la gestion des stocks. sont devenues inhérentes a ľagriculture canadienne; il y a cependant, controverse quant a ľeffet qu'apportent ces commissions sur le bien-être de la société. Cette analyse examine à la fois la méthodologie ulilisée, de méme que les résullats empiriques obtenus selon des études examinées, montrent qu'il y a un transfert considérable de revenu, entre les consummateurs et les producteurs, allant de pair avec une mauvaise répartition des ressources, résultant de la gestion des stocks. Cependant, comme le démontre cette étude, il est facilement possible ďinverser ces conclusions en changeant les hypothèses sur lesquelles la recherche antérieure a été bátie. De plus, une recherche supplément aire, sur la gestion des stocks, dans le contexte ďune structure recherchant un cadre, et du point de vue de ľorganisation industrielle est nécéssaire.     

当前我国农业农村经济形势分析——国际金融危机的影响判断

本文以国际金融危机为背景,分析了2009年我国农业农村经济发展形势,认为当前工作重点是确保农产品有效供给、推动农村劳动力转移就业、促进农民增收、完善农村土地制度、推动乡镇企业发展、加强农村基础设施建设,提出以转变发展方式、增加"三农"投入促进城乡统筹发展、带动农业发展和农民就业增收.     

Impact of BSE on Beef Purchases in Alberta and Ontario Quick-Serve Restaurants

This analysis employed a highly disaggregated household data set of Alberta and Ontario fast food purchases from May 2000 to May 2005. A double-hurdle count data model allowed tests of the hypotheses that frequency of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy ( BSE) media coverage affected neither a household's monthly probability of purchasing a beef entree, nor the household's monthly quantity of beef entrees purchased. Ontario consumers were more likely to stop purchasing beef entrees immediately following a surge in BSE media coverage, but those who did buy beef entrees maintained stable quantity levels. BSE media coverage did not systematically affect fast food purchases among Alberta consumers .
Dans la présente analyse, nous avons utilisé un ensemble de données fortement désagrégées sur les achats de repas–minute effectués par des ménages de l'Alberta et de l'Ontario, entre mai 2000 et mai 2005. Un modèle de comptage à deux étapes (double hurdle count data model) a permis de vérifier les hypothèses selon lesquelles la concentration de la couverture médiatique de la crise de l'ESB n'influence pas la probabilité mensuelle d'un ménage d'acheter des repas–minute de bœuf ni la quantité mensuelle de repas–minute de bœuf achetés par un ménage. Les consommateurs ontariens étaient plus susceptibles de cesser d'acheter des repas–minute de bœuf immédiatement après une poussée de la couverture médiatique de la crise de l'ESB, mais ceux qui achetaient des repas–minute de bœuf ont maintenu les quantités achetées. La couverture médiatique de la crise de l'ESB n'a pas systématiquement influencé les achats de repas–minute chez les consommateurs albertains .     

黑龙江省大豆生产者价格影响因素分析

本文在对黑龙江大豆生产者价格形成过程及影响因素进行理论分析的基础上,建立了我国大豆价格传导模型,并利用]979-2007年大豆生产消费统计数据,对大豆价格影响因素进行量化分解.结果表明,黑龙江大豆生产者价格主要受城乡居民平均收入、油菜籽价格、国际大豆市场价格等外部因素影响,应把利用期权、期货交易作为未来规避大豆价格风险的必要手段.     

Effects of Soil Tillage and Time of Planting on Corn Yields and Farm Profits in Southern Ontario

Intensive corn monoculture using conventional tillage systems has been associated with deteriorating soil structure, increased credibility and increasing input expenditures. Alternatives to conventional moldboard plowing may be less destructive of the soil resource, but may generally offer lower yields. This study examines five tillage systems for three soil textures and two average slopes within the decision framework of a model farm. Linear programming is used to evaluate discounted net returns over two planning horizons, both with and without a penalty for lost soil capital. Results indicate that fall plowing is the most profitable system on sandy loam and silt loam soils, despite the higher erosion rate. Zero tillage was the optimum system on loam soils. Inclusion of a soil loss penalty made little difference in optimum solutions. La monoculture intensive du maïs en utilisant les opérations culturales conventionnelles de travail du sol a été associée à la détérioration de la structure du sol, à ?augmentation de la susceptibilité à ?érosion et à ?augmentation des dépenses ?intrants. Les alternatives au labourage conventionnel avec charrue à versoir peuvent moins détruire le sol, mais en général elles offrent des rendements plus faibles. Cette étude examine cinq systèmes ?opérations culturales de travail du sol pour trois textures de sol et deux pentes moyennes, dans un cadre de décision ?une ferme modèle. La programmation linéaire est utilisée pour évaluer le rendement actualisé sur les deux horizons planifiées, toutes deux avec et sans une pénalité pour le capital du sol perdu. Les résultats indiquent que le labour ?automne est le systèlne le plus profitable sur les sols de type loam-sablonneux et loam-limoneux, malgré le taux ?érosion plus élevé. ?élimination du travail du sol était le système optimum sur les sols de type loam. ?incorporation ?une pénalité pour la perte de sol a fait peu de différence sur les solutions optimums.     

略论滩涂开发经济政策的制定

判定滩涂开发的经济政策,在吸取历史经验教训的基础上,必须从经济发展的整体战略出发,应具有现代农业的思路和眼光,调整投资结构,加强资源管理,判定优惠政策,改善投资环境,积极调动各个方面开发滩涂的积极性。     

Impact of research investment on Cassava production technologies in India*

The present study was an ex‐post assessment done to validate past funding on cassava research, based on economic surplus approach. Though cassava was introduced as a food crop in Kerala, India from Brazil, it has changed its status to commercial crop at present in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh states. This was made possible due to intensive research and development efforts of different R&D organizations. Cassava technologies developed enabled in sustaining the crop in the country with the world’s highest productivity. All the cassava production technologies considered in the study resulted in an economic surplus of Rs.3585.87 million in the target domain covering Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Consumers and producers benefited to the tune of Rs.2090.64 million and Rs.1495.23 million respectively. Net present value of economic gains was estimated to be Rs.3548.76 million. Present value of research investment on cassava production technologies was Rs.37.11 million resulting in benefit cost ratio of 96.63:1 with a high internal rate of return of 104 per cent. Thus the study indicated that the research investments incurred on cassava production technologies development was highly economical and provided evidence to the policy makers that supporting the research investment on underground, under exploited tropical root crops like cassava is an economically viable proposition.     

An overview of hydrogen prospects: Economic,technical and policy considerations

Hydrogen is expected to play a role in the future low-carbon economy as an energy carrier, but its market penetration remains to be seen. Much of the existing literature generally focuses on comparison of marginal production costs and prices to make rather optimistic projections. This study argues that such analysis is myopic as important barriers are ignored. Following Porter’s five-force approach, we methodologically identify the economic market forces that shape the development of hydrogen markets, and discuss key obstacles in the supply chain. Using evidence of available hydrogen technologies and costs, the distribution network is identified as a major fixed-investment barrier to market entry, but it is argued that much of it could be overcome if natural gas infrastructure and technology is shared with the hydrogen sector. Natural gas, in turn, is projected to function as a transition fuel under current carbon emissions targets. This study finds that policy costs needed to promote hydrogen to achieve environmental goals can be substantially reduced if government and private investment decisions strategically focus on synergies with natural gas. The possible formulation of such policies is discussed using Australia’s hydrogen industry as a case study.     

2003年以来中国土地政策参与宏观调控的实践——特点、效果以及存在问题的经验总结

研究目的：分析2003年下半年以来中国土地宏观调控的特点、成效以及存在问题。研究方法：描述分析和政策分析方法。研究结果：（1）新一轮宏观调控具有综合运用多种政策工具、尝试采用土地政策、经济手段与行政手段并用、“治标”兼“治本”以及调控及时,力度得当等特点。（2）调控取得初步成效,紧缩的供地政策对抑制投资过快增长,防范可能出现的经济过热起到了一定作用。（3）存在的主要问题：土地政策的运用并非积极主动的;某些政策的执行效果不理想;很多政策以短期措施为主,并且强调集中控制;政策的时滞效应显著。研究结论：对2003年以来中国宏观调控经验的总结表明,土地政策可以作为宏观调控的一个工具,但是具体如何使用还应继续深入研究。     

建设用地管控对经济增长质量的影响 ——基于2005—2017年省级面板数据实证分析

研究目的：基于土地资源与经济发展关系,考察建设用地管控对地区技术效率的影响,为完善高质量发展下的土地调控政策提供参考。研究方法;随机前沿模型、综合绩效评价、经济计量分析。研究结果：（1）2005—2017年全国建设用地管控绩效由0.432上升到0.529,经济技术效率从0.368提高到0.529,二者时序上显著正相关;（2）建设用地管控绩效与技术效率地区差异明显,该时期东部地区建设用地管控绩效均值0.532,总体优于中部地区（0.508）和西部地区（0.480）;东部地区技术效率达0.578,优于中部地区（0.537）和西部地区（0.457）,二者空间上高度正相关;（3）综合考虑城镇化率、产业结构、投资水平、科教投入等因素计量分析显示,建设用地管控绩效总体上对技术效率存在显著正向影响,土地供应管理在各类地区均对技术效率产生积极显著影响,土地利用管理对东部、中部地区技术效率提升作用显著,以耕地补充为主要内容的土地安全管理、西部地区的土地秩序管理与地区技术效率表现为负向关系。研究结论：（1）日益完善的土地供应管理、土地利用管理对中国经济增长的速度、质量做出重要影响;（2）对土地安全和秩序管理的考量应主要基于国家发展安全而非地区层面的经济增长;（3）新时期应加快土地市场体系完善,继续通过土地供应和利用管理优化推动经济高质量发展和新发展格局构建,同时统筹地区公平与区域协调发展,落实地方土地安全和秩序管理责任,筑牢可持续发展底线。