The determinants of interregional migration in Kenya

The polytomous logistic model is applied to unpublished census data from Kenya to test recent theoretical advances in migration theory. In addition to reporting econometric results for interregional migration in Kenya, the accumulated knowledge on the key determinants of migration, as reported in some 20 econometric studies on internal migration in developing countries, are summarized.     

The circular migration of smallholders in Kenya

Circular migration is a central phenomenon in the lives of smallholders in East Africa. Many migration decisions are not individual decisions, but rather household decisions in which the household allocates its labor force among activities to maximize household utility. A probit model which incorporates circular migration and takes into account contacts, information, and indivisibilities is used to analyze migration among 763 farm households in the Central and Nyanza provinces of Kenya. Study data are from a 1982 survey. The pull of high urban wages appears to be a far more important determinant of migration decision outcomes than the push of land scarcity, while a strong local nonagricultural economy does not seem to restrict migration. Networks of personal contacts were found to be highly significant determinants of migration. These findings suggest that rural development will probably not reduce the flow of migration.     

The determinants of internal migration in West Germany, 1967

Summary and Conclusion We initially set ourselves the task of explaining the geographical movement of labor in West Germany in 1967. In so doing we have investigated two alternative models; the standard model based on net advantages and the job opportunity model. Our results clearly support the thesis that job opportunities playa substantial role in the geographical distribution of labor in West Germany. Of the two measures of job opportunity the vacancy rate seems to be preferable, at least, in labor scarce economics. The standard distance variable performs quite well, perhaps unexpectedly well in light of the relatively small distances involved. This has led us to speculate that distance may be closely related to the difficulty with whichm potential movers acquire labor market information. Finally, wage differences seem not to explain the locational patterns of movers. However, the lack of variation in wages among the regions that we studied causes us to consider this result highly tentative and subject to further study.     

Nature and determinants of household retirement savings behaviour in South Africa

This study investigates the savings behaviour among South African households using the General Household Survey data for the periods 2002–04 and 2008–10. The age-cohort analysis shows that households achieve their income peaks when the household heads are in their early forties, earlier than in most other countries. Although initial support for the life-cycle hypothesis framework in the form of smoothed consumption was found from multivariate analysis, a closer examination reveals that the consumption–income ratio is also smooth over the age and cohort variables. This indicates that savings rates do not follow a hump-shape pattern as required in the life-cycle hypothesis framework. While households are seen to be able to maintain their consumption in retirement years through government grants, a large portion of the grants seem to be utilised for savings. This shows that the government grants have the dual effect of sustaining consumption levels while disincentivising savings during working years.     

The determinants of rural and urban household poverty in the North West province of South Africa

Based on standard poverty measures, the extent of poverty in the North West province is on average worse than in South Africa. For instance, the poverty gap ratio for North West is twice that of the South African average, and the FGT index is three times as high. This article therefore aims to identify the determinants of rural and urban poverty in the North West province of South Africa. Using data gathered from a survey of 593 black households across the province, probit model estimates suggest that the major significant determinants of household poverty in both rural and urban areas are education and household size. A difference between rural and urban poverty is, first, that extra female adults in a rural household raise the probability of poverty. Secondly, having a migrant (out) worker as head of the household in rural areas lowers the probability of poverty, while this does not apply to urban households. A sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the results over a range of poverty lines reveals that the impact of education is much stronger for poorer households than for more wealthy households.     

Economic and ecologic determinants of household organisation in the Northeastern Baltic region

Abstract

The aim of this article is to contest the monocausal cultural explanation model for the existence of the eastern Finnish family system linked to an imaginary Hajnal line. By comparing two localities in the eastern part of Finland with common religion, language, political history and legislation but with different ecology and economy and household system, a case is made for the link between economic activity and household organisation.     

Hidden inequality in household electricity consumption: Measurement and determinants based on large-scale smart meter data

Existing studies provide the estimates of climate change's impact on energy consumption, yet little attention has been paid to inequality based on fine-grained data. This paper takes advantage of the large-scale smart meter data to investigate the electricity consumption inequality and adaptation vulnerability issues. We find that there is a serious inequality underestimation issue arising from annual aggregate data. An average of 8.39% of the inequality is hidden every quarter, while the monthly hidden value reached 13.41% due to the seasonal offset effects. This inequality is the robust nonlinear inverted-N shaped relationship with temperature, which implies that the cold temperatures have a more severe impact on social inequality issues than hot. For cold days, one additional day in the range < 30 °F would result in an increase of 3.05% electricity consumption inequality. We also find households in high inequality cities have worse response ability when facing extreme temperature, indicating poor will suffer more from extreme temperature exposure. Policies to address climate-induced inequality issues would be more efficient if more attention be paid to the poor in cold winter.     

The collection of national household survey data in South Africa (1993-2001): Rendering labour migration invisible

This article explores the coverage of labour migration in four national questionnaires in South Africa - the Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development (1993), the National Census (1996 and 2001), the October Household Surveys (1995-9) and the Labour Force Survey (2000-1). Internal labour migration has been an integral part of South Africa's history and economic development. Whether this migration is changing, and how this will affect the rural household's access to resources, are surely important questions to be examined both now and in the future. A comprehensive investigation requires not only specific case study analysis, but also analysis of nationally representative data on households and the individuals who are part of these households, whether as resident or absent household members. Official household surveys in South Africa have been modified and revised over the years to improve the quality of information collected on individuals, households and their access to resources. However, questions of labour migration have received little attention in these revisions. Rather, the quality and quantity of information collected on migration and labour migrants specifically have declined such that in current sources of national data, the Labour Force Survey (2000-1) and the Census (2001), labour migrants are all but invisible.     

Access to savings and household welfare evidence from a household survey in The Gambia

In this study, we provide evidence on the impact of access to formal savings on household well‐being in The Gambia. Specifically, we study how access to formal savings can impact household outcomes such as total spending, ownership of durable assets, health spending, and education spending. Using a representative household survey and kernel ridge regression method, we find that household access to formal savings has a positive and statistically significant impact on all outcomes except health spending. Furthermore, we find that the largest effect size of access to savings is on education spending. However, the impact estimates on education and food expenditure are not very robust to a mild presence of hidden bias. Overall, we find a robust impact for total spending and asset ownership. Hence, increasing household access to formal savings can improve household well‐being in The Gambia.     

Black americans and Ghanaians: Comparative patterns of internal migration

Conclusions For our purposes here, the analysis has been fruitful in that it has served to indicate and underscore in both general and specific terms the sources and determinants of migration movement and the destination of migrants. The qualitative analysis and the statistical test have led to several research conclusions. Both United States and Ghanaian migrants behave in accordance with the migration concepts examined. Common relationships between migration and economic opportunity are apparent. While push factors have generally initiated migratory movement among black Americans, particularly in respect to the South, both groups tend to move to regions with better economic opportunities. In both cases, migration is a negative function of distance, and a large labor force at the origin is a stimulus to out-migration at the origin.     

The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan

Using monthly data from the Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey, we examine the impact of retirement on household consumption. We find little evidence of an immediate change in consumption at retirement, on average, in Japan. However, we find a decrease in consumption at retirement for low income households that is concentrated in food and work-related consumption. The availability of substantial retirement bonuses to a large share of Japanese retirees may help smooth consumption at retirement. We find that those households that are more likely to receive such bonuses experience a short-run consumption increase at retirement. However, among households that are less likely to receive a retirement bonus, we find that consumption decreases at retirement.     

The determinants of tax morale in Pakistan

This paper examines the determinants of tax morale in Pakistan, a country that has struggled with low tax effort over the past decade. We exploit novel data for individual taxpayers collected in 2014 by Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue to estimate a binary probit regression model. Our results are generally in line with the findings of the modern empirical literature on tax morale in other countries. Overall, groups with lower labor force participation show more positive attitudes toward tax compliance. Educated respondents exhibit higher tax morale than the illiterate, but only for those with very low or very high educational attainment is tax morale higher than for those with bachelor’s degrees. Tax morale is highest in major industrialized population centers that serve as seats of government. Females show generally higher tax morale than males, however, their attitudes tend to worsen with age to such an extent that elderly females have lower tax morale than elderly males. Our findings on gender suggest potential gains from increasing female labor force participation rates. More generally, addressing the current failures of tax administration and dealing with horizontal inequity arising from administrative weaknesses may contribute materially to improving voluntary compliance.     

The Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy in Kenya

The paper assesses whether the exchange rate is affected by monetary policy and whether these effects are permanent or transitory. In addition, the paper takes the position that once the exchange rate regime has been chosen it determines the flexibility of monetary policy. The real exchange rate is decomposed into cyclical and permanent components. Causality tests are performed between several measures of monetary shocks (consistent with other empirical works) and the cyclical component of the real exchange rate. The results show that excess money supply predict each other with the cyclical movements of the real exchange rate. In the second stage a model of nominal exchange rate is estimated. Since we find cointegration, the model is estimated with first‐difference of the variables, the cyclical component of the real exchange rate and the cointegrating vectors. The results show that the nominal exchange rate over the period is determined by real income growth, the rate of inflation, money supply growth, the cycles in the real exchange rate movements, the cointegrating vectors and shocks. The first cointegrating vector is normalized with money supply and the second with nominal exchange rate; they show a differential in adjustment speeds reflecting the fact that the nominal exchange rate movements responds quickly to one type of disequilibrium and slowly to the other. For the first vector the adjustment speed is consistent with an exchange rate policy that accommodates monetary disequilibrium in order to protect reserves or with a market determined exchange rate responding to excess money supply. This vector portrays the underlying monetary responses during different exchange rate regimes. In addition the results from causality tests between the official exchange rate and the parallel rate show that even though the parallel market was illegal, the central bank in determining the crawl (during the crawling rate regime) took into account the value of the currency in the parallel market, but did not hook the crawl entirely on the parallel market developments. This shows an element of backward indexation. Ce document cherche àétablir si la politique monétaire a des effets sur le taux de change et si ces effets sont permanents ou transitoires. En outre, il estime qu’une fois le régime de change choisi, celui‐ci détermine la flexibilité de la politique monétaire. Le taux de change réel est décomposé en éléments cyclique et permanent. Des tests de causalité sont effectués entre différentes mesures entrant en jeu dans les chocs monétaires (à l’instar de ce qui se fait dans les autres travaux empiriques) et l’élément cyclique du taux de change réel. Il en résulte que l’excédent de masse monétaire et les fluctuations cycliques du taux de change réel s’annoncent mutuellement. Dans un deuxième temps, un modèle du taux de change réel est élaboré. Dans la mesure où il y a co‐intégration, le modèle est évalué grâce à la différence première des variables, à l’élément cyclique du taux de change réel et aux vecteurs de co‐intégration. Il en découle que le taux de change nominal sur la période est déterminé par la croissance du revenu réel, le taux d’inflation, la croissance de la masse monétaire, les cycles de fluctuation du taux de change réel, les vecteurs de co‐intégration et les chocs. Le premier vecteur de co‐intégration est normalisé avec la masse monétaire et le second avec le taux de change nominal; ils font apparaître un différentiel dans les rythmes d’ajustement, donnant à penser que les fluctuations du taux de change nominal réagissent rapidement à un type de déséquilibre et lentement à un autre. Pour le premier vecteur, le rythme d’ajustement cadre avec une politique de change tenant compte du déséquilibre monétaire afin de protéger les réserves ou avec un taux de change déterminé par le marché en réponse à une masse monétaire excédentaire. Ce vecteur illustre les réponses monétaires sous‐jacentes lors des différents régimes de change. Par ailleurs, les tests de causalité entre le taux de change officiel et le taux parallèle montrent que, malgré le caractère illégal du marché parallèle, la banque centrale prenait en compte la valeur de la monnaie sur le marché parallèle pour déterminer l’ajustement à apporter (à l’époque du régime de parité mobile), sans lier entièrement cet ajustement à l’évolution du marché, ce qui indique une certaine indexation régressive.     

The determinants of covered margins

Conclusion The empirical evidence of the covered margin regressions tends to corroborate the theoretical analysis of theCM indicator. The hedging and opportunity-cost-of-arbitrage variables, as well as the speculative variable, appear in many cases as significant determinants of the size of the covered margin. This undermines the accuracy of theCM indicator because its accuracy requires that speculation alone heavily dominates the determination ofCM. Furthermore, the view that primitive arbitrage facilities interfere with the ability of arbitrage to restrain covered margins to small values was supported by the examination of the Canadian experience of the 1950's. The author would like to acknowledge the helpful comments of Leland Yeager on previous drafts of this paper. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.     

The determinants of African tourism

Using a standard panel gravity equation of 175 origin/destination countries between 1995 and 2008, 43 of which are African, we identify the factors that drive African-inbound (arrivals to Africa from other continents) and within-African tourism (arrivals from and to an African country). We find that the determinants of African-inbound and within-African tourism are not all that different from global tourism flows; repeat tourism, income, distance, land area and the standard dummy variables not only drive global or OECD tourism, but also tourism within Africa, disproving the belief that African tourists ‘differ substantially’.     

The impact of cash transfers on household welfare in Namibia

Namibia has a long history of providing a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means testing and quasi-conditionalities, and other cash transfers. Multivariate analysis presented in this paper confirms that these transfers play an important role in alleviating poverty, especially for the very poor. The poverty-reducing effects of the child grants are likely to increase further as access is being rapidly expanded. However, the impact in terms of reducing Namibia's extremely high inequality is limited. The targeting of the cash transfers towards the poorest groups takes place through two main channels. For the child grant, targeting occurs as a result of the orphan status eligibility criteria, as orphans are over-represented in lower-income households. For the universal social pension, it appears that some of the relatively less poor do not receive it even if they are eligible. Means testing of child grants appears ineffective, even without considering administrative costs.     

The expansion of higher education and household saving in China

We examine whether access to higher education impacts household saving rates. A 2-period model of household saving decisions demonstrates why increased college opportunities induce households with children to save more. We examine this theory using survey data from Chinese households during the unprecedented education expansion. Using estimates of the change in the expected probability of college attendance, we estimate the effect on household saving rates by comparing households before and after the reform. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the probability of going to college raises the saving rate by 5.9 percentage points.