欧盟贸易新战略与重庆

21世纪的第一个10年已经过去,国际政治经济格局在过去2年中继续发生着深刻变化。国际金融危机的后续效应在全球政治、经济和社会多层面进一步发酵,世界处于大发展大变革大调整时期。2010年是《里斯本条约》生效的第一年,欧盟机制经历深度调整,金融危机使欧元区统一货币与主权财政的结构性矛盾空前尖锐地暴露出来。欧元区危机四伏,继希腊之后爱尔兰又爆发债务危机,葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利等国也在危险边缘徘徊。可以说,经济上遭受重创的欧洲在国际政治经济格局中的重要地位被弱化了,并且面临着降为"二线队"的危机。为扭转局面,欧盟陆续出台了一系列对内对外加强经济治理的举措,可集中概括为"内修金融之身"和"外拓贸易市场"。"内修金融之身"指的是主权债务危机倒逼欧盟机制不得不发生深层次变化。为此,欧盟引入了稳定机制,加强货币流动性以阻止危机蔓延;改革了现行财政金融体制,主张依据《稳定与增长公约》对违规国家严肃处理;通过财政紧缩和扩大出口来稳固实体经济。"外拓贸易市场"指的是欧盟应形势所变明确了未来5年的贸易战略。具体说,2010年11月9日,欧盟委员会出台了名为《贸易、增长和世界事务》的新贸易战略文件,勾勒出欧盟未来5年的贸易政策走向,主张要采取更加强硬的策略为欧盟企业打开外部市场,试图依靠贸易帮助欧盟经济脱困。     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

东盟自由贸易区区内贸易的产业内贸易研究

1994年东盟自由贸易区计划正式实施以来,东盟经济合作得到较快的发展,东盟区内贸易份额有了一定程度的提高。那么,东盟区内贸易的扩大主要来源于何种形式——产业间贸易还是产业内贸易——是一个值得研究的问题。为此,本文将就此进行实证分析,以考察东盟区域贸易合作的代价。     

欧盟东扩后新10国对中国商品出口欧盟的影响——基于区域显示性比较优势指数的实证分析

文章针对欧盟东扩后10个新成员国对我国商品出口欧盟市场可能带来的影响,以大卫李嘉图比较优势学说以及H-O要素禀赋理论为出发点,借助区域显示性比较优势指数这一实证工具,对中国与欧盟新、老成员国的比较优势进行测算,并在数据分析的基础上说明了影响的来源,提出相应的对策。     

Multilateralism,Regionalism, Bilateral and Crossregional Free Trade Arrangements: All Paved with Good Intentions for ASEAN?

Current initiatives in Asia and Asia Pacific regionalism are responses to regionalism happening elsewhere in the context of globalization, information communication technology and knowledge-based economy. The conclusion is that many economies are 'having it both ways' in multilateralism under World Trade Organization (WTO) and new regionalism. The argument is that the 'first best' theory of free trade under multilateralism and WTO have fallen short. A 'second best' theory of new regionalism has been acknowledged by the Doha ministerial declaration to complement and supplement WTO. Both Asia challenged Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are challenged by ASEAN Plus Three (APT), which originated from the Asian crisis in the failed Asian Monetary Fund (AMF).
  Singapore has responded to these challenges in bilateral trading agreements, driven by its idiosyncratic features of a small, city–state economy and frustrated by laggard ASEAN. Increasingly, there is a divergence in macroeconomic policy between Singapore and ASEAN in terms of openness and competition. The dilemma in Singapore's strategy of bilateral trading agreements and foreign economic trade policy is precisely this divergence in macroeconomic philosophy and policy. The pressure on ASEAN is no less from APT, China and regionalism elsewhere than from Singapore. However, the present paper concedes that bilateral and crossregional trading arrangements are still second best, and that broader regionalism and multilateralism are still superior. With so many regional trading arrangements and emerging competition policy there may be rules of origin or 'spaghetti bowl' effects for Singapore. In 'realpolitiks' and real political economy, the balancing of gains and benefits is not easy.     

中国-东盟贸易结构研究

中国和东盟的贸易在近十年中获得了快速发展,双方作为贸易伙伴的重要性不断得到提升,贸易产品结构也不断发生变化。本文比较了双方在这十年间的贸易产品结构及其变化,发现中国与东盟的贸易产品结构在此期间都实现了一定程度的升级,而中国的调整速度看起未要快于东盟。随后,本文提出了改善中国一东盟贸易结构的措施：扩大产业内贸易、发挥比较优势、优化产业结构。     

CEPA贸易创造与贸易转移效应的实证分析

本文从实证角度出发,运用区域内贸易比重法、巴拉萨模型,RCA指数等工具,分析了CEPA自签署以来祖国内地和香港的静态经济效应,并在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

东盟五国服务贸易的开放度评析

近10年来,在全球性和区域性服务贸易自由化的推动下,东盟五国加快了服务贸易的对外开放。本文通过五国在GATS中承诺的开放水平和它们实际的开放度来比较五国的服务贸易开放程度。研究显示,到目前为止,各国之间和部门之间的开放水平仍存在较大差异。但从长远来看,五国的服务贸易都将会有更大的开放。     

贸易便利化对中国-东盟贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用口岸效率、海关环境、国内规制环境以及电子商务应用4个指标对贸易便利化进行测度,利用引力模型定量分析贸易便利化对中国与东盟贸易流量的影响,同时分析不同的关税税率对推进贸易便利化并影响贸易流量的不同作用。最后,针对实证研究结果对贸易便利化改革提出可行性建议。     

产业内贸易研究:中国与东盟国家

本文运用格鲁贝尔和劳埃德产业内贸易指数对中国与东盟国家间大量贸易数据进行实证分析,揭示了中国与东盟国家间贸易逐步从传统产业间贸易走向产业内贸易的发展趋势及其动因,并分析了影响我国与东盟产业内贸易进一步发展的有利因素与制约因素,本文最后对发展我国产业内贸易提出了相关政策建议。     

The Dynamics of Intra-industry Trade in ASEAN*

The decision to establish the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by the year 2008 has resulted in producers in all ASEAN countries except Singapore raising concerns relating to potential loss of market share and adjustment pressures. Underlying these concerns is the view that the expected growth in intra-ASEAN trade will be dominated by inter-industry or net trade (NT) rather than intra-industry trade (IIT). If most of the expected growth in trade is intra-industry, however, then the short-run resource re-allocation costs are likely to be lower. In this study, we employ a new methodology to analyse the dynamics of IIT in ASEAN. We overcome problems associated with using movements in the value of the Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index by deriving a formula that decomposes the growth in trade into the contributions of growth in IIT and NT. Our results suggest that the role of IIT in trade growth has been increasing in importance, and thus much of the recent concern that threatens the viability of AFTA may be misplaced.     

区域贸易安排的保护性:引力模型

通过2000-2005年EU、APEC、NAFTA三个区域贸易组织双边贸易流量基于合并数据的引力模型得出结论:三个区域贸易组织的净贸易效果均为贸易转移,但区域保护程度顺次减弱。总体上,发生贸易转移的方向从以发达国家为主的区域贸易组织转移到以新兴市场国家为主或由发达国家与发展中国家共同组成的区域贸易组织。因而,对内积极推行自由贸易,对外具有很强的贸易保护倾向是各国推行区域贸易政策的显著特征。     

中国与东盟贸易关系及结构分析

本文分析了中国与东盟的贸易关系与结构,认为中国与东盟近10年来贸易得到了迅速的发展,双边贸易总量、贸易依存度不断提升,同时工业制成品中资本与技术密集型产品的贸易额占双边贸易总额的比重在不断增加,而且存在着大量的产业内贸易。但是在对双边主要贸易产品的IIT指数测算中发现,与同质产品的水平产业内贸易相比,质量与价格有所差异的垂直产业内贸易起了主导作用。     

中国对东盟OFDI的国别贸易效应实证分析

本文利用2003~2011年中国对东盟10国OFDI和进出口面板数据,分析中国对东盟OFDI贸易效应存在的国别差异。研究表明:中国对东盟各国OFDI均具有贸易创造效应,且存在明显的国别差异;除了老挝和缅甸,对其他国家OFDI的出口创造效应都大于进口创造效应,总体上对东盟OFDI的出口创造效应略大于进口创造效应;从国别差异看,对泰国、马来西亚和越南OFDI的贸易创造效应最大,其次是印度尼西亚和柬埔寨,对新加坡、菲律宾、缅甸、老挝和文莱OFDI的贸易创造效应最弱。中国应当根据东盟各国不同的资源禀赋和比较优势进行相关行业的直接投资。     

浅析东盟五国服务贸易国际竞争力

近年来东盟五国的服务业迅速发展,各国服务贸易的竞争力有所提升。本文试图从东盟五国服务贸易的发展现状分析东盟五国服务贸易的竞争力的状况,并分析影响五国服务贸易国际竞争力的主要因素。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区对广东经济的影响

作为中国南部经济开放程度最高的广东,在中国——东盟自由贸易区的构建中既面临挑战,又充满机遇,广东应从中国——东盟自由贸易区这一新的区域合作目标的发展特点及趋势出发,寻求新的动力和发展方向,并制定相应的战略和对策。     

引力模型下人民币汇率对贸易量的影响——基于欧盟28国贸易的实证分析

欧盟作为当前中国最大的贸易伙伴和中国最大的进口技术来源地,在中国对外贸易中所处的地位越来越重要。因此中欧贸易的研究也在近些年来成为学术界关注的重点之一。文章利用2005-2014年的面板数据建立了包括人均GDP、贸易距离等基本变量的贸易引力模型。然后运用得到的模型来评价在人民币全球化背景下人民币汇率波动对欧盟各国贸易量的影响情况。     

Special Interest Groups and Trade Policy in the EU

The aim of this work is to employ theoretical and empirical analysis on the role of special interest groups in the determination of the EU trade policy. We build a two-stage game model of trade policy formation in a multisector-multicountry framework. We obtain the level of protection as a function of industry characteristics, in addition to political and economic factors at member state and European levels. The model is then tested by 2SLS estimation using data for 15 countries and 41 sectors. The econometric output suggests empirical support to model’s predictions as it highlights an important role for both national and European groups in trade policy making.      

中国与东盟主要国家贸易互补性比较研究

本文从实证分析的角度出发,运用贸易结合度、经常市场份额模型和贸易特化系数等工具研究了中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易的现状及其发展、中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易增长的源泉及其物质基础、中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易的产品结构及其变化,证明中国与东盟主要国家存在越来越强的贸易互补性,进而从产业间互补和产业内互补两个维度分析了中国与东盟主要国家的贸易互补关系及其产生原因。得出结论认为:中国与东盟主要国家之间存在越来越密切的贸易互补关系,构成了中国与东盟主要国家进行贸易合作的物质基础。