EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

The Rise of China: Prospects of Regional Trade Policy

China now engages in multilateral trade liberalization as a new member of the WTO. Concurrently, the number of regional trade agreements is increasing worldwide. China and its trading partners would benefit from increased regional liberalization. Using a gravity equation for 23 Asia-Pacific countries between 1992 and 2000, we show that ASEAN and APEC currently have small effects on Asia-Pacific exports, which are mainly influenced by growth, trade barriers, and common language. However, we find that China’s participation in regional agreements has large export potentials, not only with respect to ASEAN, but also in a broad agreement including South and East Asian countries. JEL no. F15, F17     

Restructuring European union trade with central and eastern European countries

Central and eastern European countries (CEECs) participate in the European economy with trade shares of the European Union (EU) and levels of intraindustry trade comparable to peripheral EU countries. However, the opening of CEECs has induced increased specialization in EU countries, which contrasts with the development in previous decades. This partially explains the cautious approach to the eastward enlargement in the EU. Furthermore, CEECs are more similar to each other than to EU countries. The pattern of the CEECs' trade with the EU resembles that of Turkey. Trade diversion is likely to present a significant burden for countries omitted from the first wave of the enlargement.     

Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America

Consequences of free-trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra- and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America.     

Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR

Using an unbalanced panel dataset of bilateral exports from 1992 to 2009, we assess the potential trade impacts of the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 on the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It is found that bilateral exports are positively related to overall bilateral country size and similarity in country size but inversely related to the factor endowment differences, transportation costs, and import tariffs. Simulation results show that the formation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between ASEAN and the Plus‐6 economies (the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in East Asia; and the other three economies of Australia, India, and New Zealand) could increase bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and ASEAN + 6 by US$1 billion, and ASEAN + 3 by US$981 million. Nonetheless, the trade balance of the Lao PDR is likely to worsen in both the ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 PTAs because they stimulate more imports than exports.     

The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia

The Potential Trade Effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia.- This paper analyzes some of the potential economic effects of free trade agreements between the EU and Russia and the other European CIS countries using standard indicators of trade patterns. It confirms that it would not be feasible for the EU to conclude such an agreement with Russia alone. It is also shown that, if the current high tariff levels are maintained in the CIS countries, they may not benefit from an agreement with the EU. More generally, the authors question the economic motivation for countries such as Russia in seeking free trade agreements with industrial countries which already have low levels of external protection.     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

欧盟与东盟FTA谈判新动向及中国的对策

欧盟与东盟FTA谈判的意图是奉行开放的区域经贸合作政策,抵消贸易转移效应,增强在亚洲地区的影响力。中国应该密切跟踪研究欧盟介入亚洲区域经济一体化进程的新动向,必要时可以主动提出与欧盟进行FTA谈判,使区域一体化进程向有利于中国的方向发展,遏制欧盟的贸易保护主义倾向。     

Effects of regional integration on FDI: An empirical approach

This study uses an augmented gravity model to capture the effect of regional economic integration on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in the cases of the EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and ASEAN. Three important conclusions emerge: (i) regional integration has had a positive and significant effect on FDI, which is a combination of investment creation and diversion; (ii) investment diversion does occur in a significant number of cases, and hence it is a legitimate cause for concern, especially among developing countries that are not part of a regional grouping with at least one developed country; and (iii) FDI acts as a substitute for trade in a significant number of cases, although in some cases, it complements trade.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Carbon emissions,trade liberalization,and the Japan–ASEAN interaction: A group-wise examination

As in any modern economy, trade is central to the progress of the economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) region, but environmental degradation occurs with globalization. Using panel data from the period 1970–2006, this study examines the interaction between trade and the environment in terms of carbon emissions for the group of ASEAN countries. The results demonstrate that CO₂ emissions display an inverted-S shape in the region. In general, exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) are main contributors to carbon emissions in the developed, developing and late-developing ASEAN countries. The study found no evidence for the Foreign Direct Investment’s (FDI) deteriorating impact on environmental quality. Moreover, Japan’s imports from the region do not cause pollution while China’s imports stimulate the pollution per capita.     

COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss

This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China’s trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries’ trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.     

The impact of AFTA on intra-AFTA trade

ASEAN countries have liberalised intra-ASEAN trade over the last 20 years by establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This paper aims to examine the impact of trade liberalisation under AFTA on intra-ASEAN trade. By applying a gravity model, we find positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination for a wide range of products. In addition, the analysis reveals that the elasticity of tariff reduction on imports tends to be much larger than that on exports. Trade creation effects for the new ASEAN members are relatively small compared to those for the old members. Our results show that AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-AFTA trade, while we argue that further expansion may be achieved by increasing the use of AFTA and by reducing/removing non-tariff measures (NTMs) through such ways as improving customs procedures and harmonizing/mutually recognizing product standards.     

Analysis of Brexit and its policy lessons for Asian integration

Galvanised by the devastation of the Second World War, European countries achieved a historically unprecedented and unparalleled level of regional economic integration in the post-war period. Intensive cooperation between the two biggest powers of continental Western Europe, France and Germany, lay at the core of Europe's seemingly relentless momentum towards integration, crystallised by the European Union (EU). The Franco-German alliance also provided strong eadership and sense of direction for the EU, which gained further traction with the admission of Central and Eastern European states after the fall of communism and the establishment of a monetary union among many of its members. However, more recently, the European integration process no longer seems unstoppable or inevitable. Most shockingly, the United Kingdom, a core EU member and the EU's third largest economy, has opted to leave the union, triggering the ‘Brexit’ process. Nor is Brexit the only sign of growing fractures within the EU. The current standoff between the EU and Italy over Italy's unwillingness to rein in its fiscal deficit is just one additional example of the loss of momentum. The central objective of the paper is to examine EU's past successes and current problems from the perspective of Asian countries, in particular ASEAN+3 countries that have achieved some measure of integration, although well below that of the EU. Both past successes and current problems hold valuable lessons for ASEAN+3 countries as they chart their own course towards regional integration. Given that the level of integration among ASEAN+3 is much lower than that of the EU, it would be unwise to draw lessons, positive or negative, without the proper context. Nevertheless, the European experience can provide valuable insights for Asia's integration process.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the determinants of bilateral trade flows among 47 countries and, particularly, the effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas: European Union (EU), North-American Free Trade Area NAFTA), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Centro-American Common Market (CACM), and other Mediterranean countries (MEDIT). The period under study is from 1980–99. The authors estimate a gravity equation that allows the comparison of the weight of the influence of preferential agreements and also, infers the relevance of other determinants of bilateral trade flows such us geographic proximity, income levels, population, and cultural similarities. The analysis is undertaken for each year of the sample in order to capture the temporal evolution of the impacts on trade of the different variables considered. Using the estimation results as a base, trade potentials resulting from new free trade agreements are calculated.     

The role of comparative advantage in trade within industries: A panel data approach for the European Union

The Role of Comparative Advantage in Trade within Industries: A Panel Data Approach for the European Union. — A large share of EU member states trade is intra-industry trade (IIT) in the period 1985-1996; in particular, IIT is based on products differentiated in quality (vertical IIT). Moreover, exports from southern countries are located mainly at the lower end of the price-quality spectrum, whereas those countries with higher per capita incomes are located at the higher end. According to the vertical IIT models, we hypothesize that commercial specialization of members states over the quality spectrum within industries is explained by differences in technological, physical and human capital. The results show that comparative advantage is an important driver of the pattern of European trade within industries.     

评欧盟全球贸易新战略

2006年10月4日,欧盟委员会公布了一个题为《全球的欧洲:在世界中的竞争》报告。该报告阐述了欧盟全球贸易新战略。欧盟全球贸易新战略的目的就是通过对外贸易政策的实施,来实现欧盟的经济增长和就业增加。欧盟确定把区域或双边自由贸易协定作为实现经济增长和就业增加的一个战略平台。亚洲将是欧盟选择自由贸易协定谈判对象的主要地区。欧盟的全球贸易新战略与美国小布什倡导的"竞争性自由化"战略如出一辙。由于自由贸易协定在本质上偏离了WTO所倡导的非歧视原则,所以,欧盟与美国的做法将对多边贸易体制产生消极影响。中国面对美国、欧盟甚至是日本展开的一系列自由贸易协定谈判,应该作出应有的反应。