Interdependencies in the Dynamics of Firm Entry and Exit

This paper investigates the interdependence between firm entry and exit from an industrial dynamics perspective. The paper discusses how entry and exit rates in industrial sectors are affected by previous exit and entry rates. Economic theory presents two different approaches to how entry and exit of firms are interrelated, the multiplier effect and the competition effect. This paper intends to investigate which force is the predominant one, for entry and exit patterns, respectively. The empirical analysis is based on data for 25 Swedish manufacturing industries at the 2-digit SIC level, during the period 1991–2000. In the estimation work the study applies a dynamic panel data approach as suggested by Anderson and Hsiao [Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76:598–606, 1981] and Arellano and Bond [Review of Economic Studies, 58(2):277–297, 1991]. With respect to entry, the empirical results support the multiplier effect such that entry stimulates future entry, but also a competition effect such that past exit induces additional entry. With regard to exit, on the other hand, the competition effect rules, implying that previous entry causes subsequent exit and previous exit reduces subsequent exit.      

International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions

This paper studies how labor market frictions affect the consequences of trade integration in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous producer entry. Two main results emerge. First, trade integration is beneficial for welfare by inducing higher productivity, but unemployment can temporarily rise during the transitional adjustment. Labor market rigidities reduce gains from trade, even though they can mitigate short-run employment losses. Second, consistent with the data, the model predicts that stronger trade linkages lead to increased business cycle synchronization. The strength of this effect, however, depends on the labor market characteristics of the integrating partners.     

Business Dynamics and Efficiency in Industries and Regions: The Case of Spain

High rates of firm births and deaths are a pervasive phenomenon across industries and territories. Most studies have related the great turbulence at the fringe of practically all manufacturing industries to positive effects on the long-run performance of industries. According to these views business turbulence, although it has a relatively small incidence on net entry, leads to allocative improvement and stimulates innovation. The existing set of empirical studies does not reach clear conclusions, however, and many questions are still open. Our contribution analyses the relationship between business dynamics in manufacturing and the growth of total factor productivity in industries and regions. After a review of current literature on entry and exit it is argued that most models are tailored to suit the processes observed in industries and regions that are near the technological frontier, and we propose an approach that could be more representative of middle range economies such as Spain. According to this approach new firms are seen more as users of innovations than producers of innovations. We adopt a model based on a vintage capital framework in which new entrants embody the edge technologies available and exiting businesses are supposed to represent the most marginal obsolete plants. Both industries and regions are represented by a Hall's type production function which controls for imperfect competition and economies of scale. The results show that both entry and exit rates contribute positively to the growth of total factor productivity in industries and in regions.     

Business Survival and Success of Young Small Business Owners

Little empirical evidence provides insight in person-oriented drivers of business survival and success of small business owners. In this paper I perform a duration analysis of business survival amongst young white (self-employed) small business owners in the U.S. Compulsory exits are distinguished from voluntary exits. This enables an alternative definition of business success: the longer one can survive and prevent inLvoluntary exit, the more successful one is. Potential drivers of survival are derived from recent empirical evidence in related studies. The potential drivers of success are also derived from historical economic thinkers such as Marshall and Schumpeter. The estimated hazard rates are affected by characteristics of the small business owner and business conditions.     

Net Entry of Firms into Greek Manufacturing: The Effects of Business Conditions

This research explores the nature and causes of net entry into manufacturing industry in Greece. Previous work has rarely considered these issues in the context of small, but open, and not particularly industrialised economies. The exact nature of the focus of interest – net entry – is discussed first, illustrating that this is a complex variable to account for, although arguably still interesting and useful. Net entry needs to be considered as variable worthy of study in its own right as it reflects an outcome of processes of gross entry and exit. Certainly it need not be interpreted only as entry as is often the case. Next comes the question of the degree of variation, both temporally and sectorally, that net entry exhibits in the context of contemporary Greek manufacturing. Some temporal variation in net entry rates is demonstrated, and there follows a discussion of how such variation might be explained potentially in theory. The empirical testing of these hypotheses point to findings that are different to those discovered in different contexts. For Greek manufacturing, profitable business opportunities were not shown to be a sufficient condition of higher net entry, but the cost advantages of large scale operations did both encourage entry and discourage exit. The cost of capital and the overall condition of the economy were negatively related to net entry. However the role of industry growth, import penetration and export orientation tend to confirm findings in other studies.     

The determinants of new firm formation in italian manufacturing

This paper focuses on entry of small firms in the manufacturing industries. It is argued that the exit option can be viewed as an insurance against risks of failure, increasing the likelihood of entry in an uncertain environment; the result is implicit in recent stochastic models of competition and entry decision under uncertainty. A regression model of industry birth rates in the Italian manufacturing industries provides empirical evidence on the impact of factors determining the decision to enter and the supply of new entrepreneurs. In our estimates, yearly entry rates are found to decrease with entry costs and barriers and to increase with market growth, expected growth of small firms, risks of failure and an index of spatial concentration of activities.     

Patterns of Economic Interdependence in Latin America

This study investigates business cycle synchronization and transmission patterns among the major Latin American countries and their linkages with the United States and Europe. Correlations, principal components, trade patterns, vector autoregressions, and impulse responses are used to discern the business cycle transmission patterns.

There is moderate evidence of a unique Latin American business cycle and of business cycle transmission among the Latin American economies. Most transmission linkages come from outside Latin America. The European business cycle has a slightly stronger influence upon most Latin American economies than the influence of the US business cycle. Brazil is clearly the most influential Latin American economy in terms of business cycle transmission.     

The Determinants of and Interaction between Entry and Exit in Taiwan's Manufacturing

Based upon substantial high firm turnover rates, various policy incentives, and developed subcontracting-networks, this paper investigates structure and firm-specific factors that determine the entry and exit rate across industries. The interaction between entry and exit rates of the industry is incorporated in the study, namely the "displacement", "replacement" and "instantaneous causal" effects. The regression results indicate that entry and exit rates are determined by different measures of entry or exit barriers but the effects are not fully symmetric. It is also evident that underlying entry or exit sunk- costs introduced the instantaneous movement of entry and exit rates. In addition, the entry of new plants has a moderate effect to facilitate the displacement or market selection process to displace the inefficient producers but no significant replacement effect is found. The policy implication being that the government support encourages entry it also increases the industry failure rates.     

The Turnover of Firms and Industry Growth

In a dynamic setting, every firm can be regarded as a “business experiment” with the objective to search and explore new business opportunities. It is suggested that the growth of an industry is enhanced by new-firm entry, since a positive correlation between the number of successes, i.e. fast-growing firms, and the number of business experiments is to be expected. Exit is necessary to sort out the firms that the market rejects. Hence, it is rather the entry and exit of firms that jointly should have a positive effect on growth, rather than the number of entries in isolation. This paper tests the hypothesis that a high turnover rate of firms has no, or a negative, effect on industry growth. The analysis is based on an extensive data set covering all Swedish IT firms that existed between 1994 and 1998. The turnover rate of firms is found to have a significantly positive effect on industry growth.     

Market entry and international propagation of business cycles

In this paper, pro-cyclical market entry acts as an international transmission mechanism for business cycle shocks. In an imperfectly competitive dynamic equilibrium model, an expansion in one open economy leads to additional business formation in a parallel large open economy through demand spillovers. Business formation causes a decline in markups leading to an expansion in employment, production, and investment in both economies. The modeling of the entry decision is critical. Only when the entry game is modelled as sequential (with incumbents enjoying a first mover advantage) are markups sufficiently elastic to cause international comovement.     

Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest-of-the-world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country-pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.     

Trajectories of Small Business Financial Structure

A dynamic theory of the small firm is expounded, assuming entrepreneurs maximise business value over a finite time horizon. Predicted trajectories for key financial variables are seen to depend on whether debt or equity are cheaper. The predicted trajectories are compared with actual trajectories, using empirical evidence from three years of detailed primary source data on one hundred and fifty new business startups in Scotland. Evidence largely confirms predictions of the model, for the cheap equity case. For this case, as capital and sales rise steadily, debt is retired rapidly, except when interest rates on long-term debt are low. This finding is supported by explicit empirical trajectories of key financial variables.     

产业内贸易对东亚经济周期协动性影响的实证研究

本文从理论上分析了产业内贸易对东亚经济周期协动性的影响,基于1990-2009年的数据,首先分析了中国与东亚各国产业内贸易指数的动态变化;其次,运用HP滤波方法提取周期因子ct,验证了东亚经济周期的协动性。在此基础上,构建了以贸易强度和产业内贸易为自变量,经济周期协动性为因变量的回归模型,运用分期数据对产业内贸易与经济周期协动性进行了面板数据的固定效应回归分析。研究结果揭示:相较于贸易强度,产业内贸易对中国与东亚经济周期协动性的影响更直接更显著,产业内贸易是中国与东亚经济周期协动性的主要传导渠道。随着产业内贸易比重的提高,中国与东亚贸易伙伴经济周期的协动性趋强。     

Exit and Entry Over the Product Life Cycle: Evidence from the Swedish Manufacturing Industry

In this paper the process of exit and entry of firms in the Swedish manufacturing industry is investigated within the framework of the product life cycle. The product life cycle theory explains how the high degree of uncertainty, as regards product designs and production methods, which is connected to the early stages of the product life cycle requires a high level of knowledge-intensity. Since uncertainty decrease over the product life cycle, less knowledge is needed in production during later stages of the product life cycle. This implies that knowledge-intensity differs for firms that exit and enter in different stages of the product life cycle. Four hypotheses regarding these relationships are stated and empirically tested in this paper, using data at the 5-digit SIC-level for the Swedish manufacturing industry during 1990–1996. The empirical results show that entrants in the early stages of the product life cycle are more knowledge-intensive than incumbent firms. It is also found that firms exiting in early stages of the product life cycle are more knowledge-intensive than firms exiting in later stages.     

Entry and exit in disequilibrium

Most entrepreneurship theory depicts disequilibrium as the most common state for entrepreneurial activity and yet remarkably very little empirical research investigates the role of entry and exit in this type of external environment. Drawing on economics and organizational ecology we outline reasons why the interrelation between entry, exit and incumbent firms is likely to vary when the actual number of firms is higher or lower than the number that a market can sustain. We also introduce a new empirical methodology to explain entry and exit levels in two different types of disequilibria comprising situations when markets under and over shoot carrying capacity. Using a data set on the retail industry, we find that in undershoots a lack of competition between incumbent firms restores equilibrium by creating room for new-firm entry. In contrast, in overshoots competition induced by new firms (in particular strong displacement) restores equilibrium. We also find that equilibrium-restoring mechanisms are faster in over than undershoots. The results highlight that the behaviour and impact of entry and exit varies depending on the type of disequilibrium.     

Drug trafficking,money laundering and the business cycle: Does secular stagnation include crime?

The aim of the paper is to analyze theoretically and empirically the impact the macroeconomic cycle has on the accumulation of capital by organized crime, using estimates for the global drug market. So far, the economic literature has neglected the relationships existing between illegal markets, money laundering and the business cycle. We propose a dynamic model where the business cycle influences the criminal economy via two different channels. On the one side, illegal markets grow at variable rates, depending on the health of the legal economy. Second, a pass‐through effect can exist, since the business cycle affects the legal markets which criminal operators use to launder their revenues. Furthermore, we analyze the consequences of a ‘saturation effect’ limiting maximum accumulation of illegal capital. We find that overall illegal capital is affected by the business cycle through a capital multiplier; in addition to this, the dynamics of interest rates in financial markets can influence such multiplier.     

The Determinants of Firm Exit in Japanese Manufacturing Industries

This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of firm exits that occurred in Japanese manufacturing industries over the period 1981--1989. Gross-number measure is used for exits. Many structural factors have exerted a definite influence on the extent of exit; across industries, capital intensity and subcontracting relationships have an exit-promoting effect, while profits, industry growth, concentration, and R&D opportunity have a negative relationship with exit. In addition, the minimum efficient size has an inverted-U-shaped relationship. However, export opportunity has only a marginal effect. These results are likely to reflect exits of small business.     

The impact of foreign direct investment on new firm survival in the UK: evidence for static versus dynamic industries

The paper examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the survival of business start-ups. FDI has potential for both negative displacement/competition effects as well as positive knowledge spillover and linkage effects on new ventures. We find a net positive effect for the whole dataset. However, a major contribution of the paper is to outline and test an argument that this effect is likely to be comprised of a net negative effect in dynamic industries (high churn: firm entry plus exit relative to the stock of firms) alongside a net positive effect in static (low churn) industries. We find evidence to support this view. The results identify new effects of globalisation on enterprise development with associated challenges for industrial policy.

Spatial agglomeration and firm exit: a spatial dynamic analysis for Italian provinces

The paper investigates the effect of spatial agglomeration on firm exit in a dynamic framework. Using a large dataset at the industry-province level for Italy (1998–2007), we estimate a spatial dynamic panel model via a GMM estimator and analyze the short-run impact of specialization and variety on firm exit. Specialization negatively affects firm exit rates in the short-run. The effect is particularly significant for low-tech firms. The impact of variety on firm mortality rates at the industry level is instead less clear, although still negative and significant for low-tech firms.     

Role of product entry and exit on the attraction effect

The attraction effect illustrates a violation of the regularity assumption in consumer choice. This effect increases the share of a target brand, relative to a competitor, when a third alternative is added to the choice set such that the target dominates the third alternative completely but the competitor does not. The effect has important marketing implications for design and presentation of choice sets to consumers. This paper studies the influence of sequential product entry and exit on the attraction effect; specifically, it focuses on the differences among simultaneous entry, delayed product entry, and product exit. Using two experiments, the paper shows that even sequential actions, such as entry or exit of products, predictably produce the attraction effect.