Strategically Surviving Bankruptcy during a Global Financial Crisis: The Importance of Understanding Chapter 15

Chapter 15 of the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act allows foreign courts more power in cases that include foreign multinational firms. U.S. businesses unexpectedly have to file a claim in another country with bankruptcy rules that are sometimes drastically different from those in U.S. courts. This paper outlines the different bankruptcy laws in selected countries and exemplifies how some countries place U.S. creditors at a disadvantage relative to employees and stockholders. This knowledge should be incorporated into management's strategic contingency plans in the case of supplier or business customer default. During periods of global financial instability such as the 2008 financial crisis, an understanding of Chapter 15 is essential.     

Default Patterns in Seven EU Countries: A Random Forest Approach

This study uses the relatively new “random forest” (RF) approach, which is based on decision-tree analysis by combining the results of a large set of decision trees. RFs have so far been little used for default prediction but offer an interesting alternative to well-established default prediction techniques. Based on accounting data from 945,062 observed European firms from seven countries in 2010 and 1,019,312 firms in 2011, we provide evidence on the country-specific default patterns. Because of the strong imbalance of the data sets with regard to the solvency status, standard RF implementations have to be modified to allow the estimation of realistic default propensities. We find that by far most accurate out-of-sample default propensities can be obtained for Italy followed by Portugal and Spain and the least accurate for the UK and Finland. The debt ratio, rate of return on sales, dynamic gearing ratio, and the rate of return on assets are found to be the most important variables for default prediction. The variable importance rankings are rather country specific, pointing to heterogeneity in the default patterns across the countries studied.     

金融冲击、去杠杆与中国宏观经济波动

去杠杆是我国供给侧结构性改革的重要任务之一,而平稳有序地去杠杆是防范化解金融风险的关键:本文通过梳理我国在2016年前后的经济数据,刻画了去杠杆进程中我国宏观经济存在的“扩张—收缩”波动特征。基于此现实,本文在金融加速器理论基础上构建金融经济周期模型,尝试利用违约成本的变化引入金融冲击,从未预期和预期冲击两个视角理解去杠杆背景下中国的宏观经济波动。模型数值模拟结果表明,去杠杆过程前后信贷、杠杆率以及信用利差等重要宏观经济变量的波动不仅源自未预期违约成本的变化。违约成本预期的变化同样也可以很好地解释近年来我国重要宏观经济变量的“扩张—收缩”波动特征,为理解我国去杠杆进程中的宏观经济波动提供了一个新视角。基于本文结果,政府实施去杠杆政策时不仅应充分考虑违约成本的实际变动,还应重视金融机构的预期因素。     

Predicting Default More Accurately: To Proxy or Not to Proxy for Default?

Previous studies targeting accuracy improvement of default models mainly focused on the choice of the explanatory variables and the statistical approach. We alter the focus to the choice of the dependent variable. We particularly explore whether the common practice (in the literature) of using proxies for default events (bankruptcy or delisting) to increase sample size indeed improves accuracy. We examine four definitions of financial distress and show that each definition carries considerably different characteristics. We discover that rating agencies effort to measure correctly the timing of default is valuable. Our main conclusion is that one cannot improve default prediction by making use of other distress events.     

Estimation of the default risk of publicly traded companies: evidence from Canadian data

Through Canadian publicly traded companies, this study assessed how combining firms' continuous valuations by the market (structural model) with the value given in their financial statements (accounting model) could enhance prediction of a company's probability of default. The hybrid model outperformed other models. Specifically, estimated structural probabilities of default (PDs) contributed significantly to predicting default probabilities when they were included alongside accounting and macroeconomic variables in our hybrid model. These results were obtained with two versions of the structural model: the Merton model (Merton, 1973, 1974) and the default barrier model (Brockman & Turtle, 2003). Both models were estimated with the maximum likelihood method. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method

This study uses 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bio-index method counts the number of variables for which each candidate rates favorably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote. The bio-index relies on different information and includes more variables than traditional econometric election forecasting models. The method is useful in combination with simple linear regression to estimate a relationship between the index score of the candidate of the incumbent party and his share of the popular vote. The study tests the model for the 29 U.S. presidential elections from 1896 to 2008. The model's forecasts, calculated by cross-validation, correctly predicted the popular vote winner for 27 of the 29 elections; this performance compares favorably to forecasts from polls (15 out of 19), prediction markets (22 out of 26), and three econometric models (12 to 13 out of 15 to 16). Out-of-sample forecasts of the two-party popular vote for the four elections from 1996 to 2008 yielded a forecast error almost as low as the best of seven econometric models. The model can help parties to select the candidates running for office, and help to improve on the accuracy of election forecasting, especially for longer-term forecasts.     

MODELING THE RECOVERY RATE IN A REDUCED FORM MODEL

This paper provides a model for the recovery rate process in a reduced form model. After default, a firm continues to operate, and the recovery rate is determined by the value of the firm's assets relative to its liabilities. The debt recovers a different magnitude depending upon whether or not the firm enters insolvency and bankruptcy. Although this recovery rate process is similar to that used in a structural model, the reduced form approach is maintained by utilizing information reduction in the sense of Guo, Jarrow, and Zeng. Our model is able to provide analytic expressions for a firm's default intensity, bankruptcy intensity, and zero-coupon bond prices both before and after default.     

Pricing Defaultable Bonds Using a Lévy Jump‐Diffusion Model

This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings.     

Financial densities in emerging markets: an application of the multivariate ES density

This paper derives and presents the multivariate Edgeworth–Sargan (ES) density, discusses some of its properties, and estimates it for three exchange rates in emerging markets (Chile, Hungary and Singapore). The ES density fits the data adequately, and the model is estimated simultaneously for all variables. This involves estimating a highly non-linear model with 32 parameters. A multivariate Student's t is also estimated, and both sets of results are compared. The empirical results show that, (a) the ES density applies to emerging markets as well as to more developed economies, as shown in previous research, (b) it is feasible to estimate a multivariate density of large dimensionality, and (c) independent estimation of the marginal densities, although a consistent procedure, yields significantly different results from the multivariate estimation for some parameters.     

The prediction of bankruptcy of small- and medium-sized industrial firms

Using large amounts of data from small- and medium-sized industrial firms, this study examines several aspects of bankruptcy prediction. We have tested a hypothesis on the predictive power of different ratio categories during the successive phases before bankruptcy, and one on the relationship between the age of a firm and the predictability of bankruptcy. It was found that virtually every ratio investigated had some predictive power, and that the univariate and multivariate importance of ratio stability were not very high.     

Prediction of hotel bankruptcy using support vector machine,artificial neural network,logistic regression,and multivariate discriminant analysis

The objectives of this paper are firstly, to provide an optimal hotel bankruptcy prediction approach to minimize the empirical risk of misclassification and secondly, to investigate the functional characteristics of multivariate discriminant analysis, logistic, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and support vector machine (SVM) models in hotel bankruptcy prediction. The performances were evaluated not only in terms of overall classification and prediction accuracy but also in terms of relative error cost ratios. The results showed that ANN and SVM were very applicable models in bankruptcy prediction with data from Korean hotels. When jointly measuring both type I and type II errors, especially allowing for the greater costs associated with type I errors, however, ANN was more accurate with smaller estimated relative error costs than SVM. Thus, if the objective is to find the best early warning technique that performs accurately with small relative error costs, then, it will be worth considering ANN method for hotel bankruptcy prediction.     

Financial development and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the relationship between financial sector development and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. It uses panel data covering the period 1991-2004 from 18 countries in Africa. The main findings of the study are as follows: there is a negative relationship between interest rate and private investment, signaling large interest rate spreads in African economies. It is also found that both the credit to the private sector and the turnover ratio have significant relationships with private investment. However, the effect of turnover ratio on investment is insignificant. The insignificance of the stock market indicator reflects the low stage of stock market development in most of the African economies. In addition, it is found that the informal sector is still large and has positive effects on private investment and that institutional variables play a key role in determining the level of private investment in Africa.     

Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?

We estimate a number of multivariate regime switching VAR models on a long monthly US data set for eight variables that include excess stock and bond returns, the real T-bill yield, predictors used in the finance literature (default spread and the dividend yield), and three macroeconomic variables (inflation, industrial production growth, and a measure of real money growth). Heteroskedasticity may be accounted for by making the covariance matrix a function of the regime. We find evidence of four regimes and of time-varying covariances. We show that the best in-sample fit is provided by a four state model in which the VAR(1) component fails to be regime-dependent. We interpret this as evidence that the dynamic linkages between financial markets and the macroeconomy have been stable over time. The four-state model can be helpful in forecasting applications and provides one-step ahead predicted Sharpe ratios.     

The Way into Bankruptcy: Market Anomie and Sacrifice Among Portuguese Consumers

Portugal ranks among the EU27 countries with higher levels of consumer indebtedness. Contrary to the trend observed in countries with similar indebtedness rates, Portugal has one of the lowest rates of consumer default. Previous studies (e.g., Frade et al. 2006) have identified three strategies that have contributed to keep levels of credit default low: reliance on savings, financial support from relatives and friends, and cuts in household expenses. These strategies have been widely used for the last decade and have been strained since the very beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007. We argue that these three strategies are near to collapse and consequently the levels of consumer default will rise steeply in the next years. The savings rate in Portugal has been declining over time, and the social networks are limited in their action due to the current crisis that affects everyone. In this article, we advance the hypothesis that sacrificing living standards is rooted on collective beliefs about the current economic crisis in Portugal and trust in political and market agents in line with the Theory of Market Anomie (Karstedt and Farrall 2006). The conclusions are based on macroeconomic statistics and on the results of a Web survey of 1244 Portuguese households, which focuses on attitudes towards the financial crisis, trust in political and economic institutions, and strategies to cope with the crisis. The results show that trust in financial companies (banks and insurance companies) and in the European Parliament promotes a sense of empowerment to contribute to the country economic restoration. This attitude induces citizens to avoid default by sacrificing living standards. But in the current austerity context, with low levels of trust in political institutions and detachment of the economy, consumers will be less prone to sacrifice. In this scenario, credit default and insolvency is expected to rise especially in those households most exposed to unemployment and to cuts in social benefits. This reality puts a huge and growing pressure on bankruptcy procedure, civil courts, and economic and social policies. Some adjustments should be made to the Portuguese Bankruptcy Code by facilitating and simplifying the bankruptcy regime in order to accommodate the increase in insolvency cases. But the improvement of the insolvency procedure will not resolve the situation of financial distress if the structural causes persist, such as unemployment and deterioration of salaries, and cuts in social benefits. A reform of the Bankruptcy Code facilitating and simplifying the bankruptcy regime should be coupled with measures that boost the economy and stimulate the labour market. Otherwise, Portuguese households will not have the resources necessary to benefit from the bankruptcy process and regain the control over their financial lives.     

On the simultaneity of real and financial policies

This study investigates the interdependencies between a firm's real and financial decisions. One cause of this interdependence is, as with several previous studies, the real costs associated with bankruptcy. A classical multiperiod model is developed which allows for the endogeneity of debt issues, interest rates, the probability of firm default, and dividends. The modeling suggests an explanation for dividend determination which differs from traditional views. The resulting explanation is that funds are always channelled into the most profitable use. Thus, the model generates an optimal quantity of dividends which cannot be altered without decreasing the expected return to equity.     

Financial Performance in Manufacturing Firms: A Comparison Between Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches

This paper provides a methodological analysis of credit risk in manufacturing firms by using two different credit scoring approaches. The first is the traditional discriminant approach for bankruptcy prediction based on a logistic regression model, whereas the second, data envelopment analysis, is a nonparametric approach for measuring firms’ efficiency that does not require ex-ante information on bankrupted firms. By using a manufacturing sample of both healthy and bankrupted firms during the period 2003–09 we provide an in-depth comparison of discriminant analysis and data envelopment analysis and conclude that a correct evaluation of firms’ credit worthiness is the result of successive fine-tuning procedures requiring the use of multiple methodological tools.     

2008SNA对金融核算的发展及尚存议题分析

2008SNA最主要的贡献之一是对金融核算的发展与完善。总的来看,2008SNA对金融核算的主要发展可归纳为概念、分类、产出估算方法、特定项目处理和其他等五个方面。金融核算的新发展涉及广泛的元素,对核算方法、流程与结果都将产生巨大影响,部分主要总量指标的估算、金融服务产出的核算和金融资产／负债的处理将因此而改变,2008SNA框架下金融核算与其他国际统计标准的协调性进一步增强。当然,金融核算本身是一个不断发展的领域,尚存不少问题有待进一步研究。     

上市公司财务业绩报告的缺陷及改进研究——基于企业资源理论视角

上市公司财务会计报告承担着受托责任及提供决策信息两大会计目标，但现行财务业绩报告在披露方式、内容的完整性、相关性、实质重于形式等方面存在问题。文章基于企业资源理论总结了现行上市公司财务业绩报告在形式与内容上的缺陷．并从企业资源理论的视角提出更加科学合理的财务业绩报告。     

CEO incentives and bank risk

We investigate the relationship between CEO compensation and bank default risk predictors to determine if short-term incentives can explain recent excesses in bank risk. We investigate early warning off-site surveillance parameters and expected default frequency (EDF) as well as crisis-related risky bank activities. We find only modest evidence that CEO compensation structures promote significant firm-specific heterogeneity in bank risk measures or risky activities. Compensation elements commonly thought to be the riskiest components, unvested options and bonuses, are either insignificant or negatively correlated with common risk variables, and only positively significant in predicting the level of trading assets and securitization income.     

Financial socialism: The role of financial economics in economic disorganization

A growing body of research shows evidence that financial economics played a significant role in recent financial crises, such as the subprime mortgage crisis, Enron and Long-Term Capital Management. This track record is a wake-up call for managers and investors who employ financial economic models. This paper demonstrates how financial economics decouples market prices from the valuation by customers and resource owners in a systematic way. As an organization principle, financial economics replaces value-driven investment by a theory-driven ruling of anonymous financial markets – a scenario warranting the title “financial socialism”. Implications for customer valuation, financial accounting, and a maxim for the sound application of financial economic models are presented.