THE INCOME REDISTRIBUTION EFFECT OF CHINA'S PERSONAL INCOME TAX: WHAT THE MICRO‐DATA SAY

This article uses continuous micro‐level data to investigate the income redistribution effect of the personal income tax (PIT) in China beginning in 1997. We find that the average tax rate plays a larger role in determining the income redistribution effect of PIT than tax progressivity does. Although tax progressivity decreased as a result of rising personal incomes and a constant PIT policy prior to 2005, the income redistribution effect of the PIT improved as a result of the higher average tax rate. The tax reform beginning in 2006 increased tax progressivity while decreasing the average tax rate, thereby weakening the income redistribution effect of the PIT. Further analysis indicates that the middle‐income group was the only net loser before 2005, but it benefited from the PIT policy reform. A cross‐country comparison shows that China has a lower PIT burden and higher progressivity than developed countries; in fact, China's levels of progressivity and tax burden are similar to those of Latin American countries. (JEL H24, D31, H31)     

个人所得税的累进性与再分配效应——以湖北省为例

以湖北省城镇调查数据为分析对象,以指数为工具,本文实证考察了我国个人所得税的累进性及再分配效应。得到的结论是我国个人所得税再分配效应很弱,但其原因并不在于税收的实际累进性小,而在于个人所得税的平均税率低,税收规模很小。同时,在各类收入中,工资性收入的个人所得税累进性很强,经营性收入及财产性收入的个人所得税累进性较差,甚至出现累退性。提高个人所得税规模、加强对经营性收入及财产性收入的税收征管、以家庭为单位征收是个人所得税进一步改革的方向。     

2011年个人所得税改革的收入再分配效应

本文考察2011年9月1日实施的个人所得税改革的收入再分配效应。根据目前我国分项课征的个人所得税征管模式,本文推导出税收的收入再分配效应指数按收入构成的分解方法。根据该分解方法的主要分析结果可概括为两点:其一,平均税率的高低是个税收入分配效应大小的主要决定因素,累进性则是次要的。由于平均税率的降低,本次税收改革弱化了本来就十分微弱的个人所得税的收入分配效应。其二,我国个人所得税整体累进性指数随工资薪金所得费用扣除的提高呈倒U型。十分巧合的是,本次改革确定的3500元免征额正好处于倒U型的最大值,超过3500元的费用扣除反而会削弱我国个税的累进性。     

A structural VAR approach on labour taxation policies

This paper presents a Structural VAR analysis on the employment and output effects of labour tax policies in six European countries for the period 1974–1997. By considering impulse response functions, it turns out that, on average, a shock to the total personal income tax revenues is positively correlated to employment, whereas there is mixed evidence on the output effect. Moreover, the quantitative impact of these effects, especially those related to the output, appears to be quite small. However, by introducing explicitly four labour tax parameters (namely the marginal and average tax rates for the personal income tax and the payroll tax), it turns out that these effects are not negligible after all: for some countries it is possible to conceive labour taxes as policy instruments favouring more employment and a better economic performance. However, the empirical support on the sign of the output and employment effects is mixed, suggesting that the same domestic fiscal policy does not produce the same impact in all the European countries.     

Four Levers of Redistribution: The Impact of Tax and Transfer Systems on Inequality Reduction

We use harmonized survey data from the Luxembourg Income Study to assess the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers across 22 OECD countries over the 1999–2016 period. After imputing missing tax data (employer social-security contributions), we measure the reduction in income inequality from four key levers of tax and transfer systems: the average tax rate, tax progressivity, the average transfer rate, and transfer targeting. Our methodological improvements produce the following results. First, tax redistribution dominates transfer redistribution (excluding pensions) in most countries. Second, targeting explains very little of the cross-country variation in inequality reduction. In contrast, both tax progressivity and the average tax rate have large impacts on redistribution. Last, there seem to be political tradeoffs: high average tax rates are not found together with highly progressive tax systems.     

PROGRESSIVITY AND REDISTRIBUTION IN NON‐REVENUE NEUTRAL TAX REFORMS: THE LEVEL AND DISTANCE EFFECTS

Kakwani and Reynolds–Smolensky indices are used in the literature to measure the progressivity and redistributive capacity of taxes. These indices may, however, show some limits when used to make normative assessments about non‐revenue neutral tax reforms. Two approaches have traditionally been taken to overcome this problem. The first of these consists of comparing after‐tax income distributions through generalized Lorenz (concentration) curves. The second approach is based on the decomposition of changes in the Reynolds–Smolensky index into changes in the average tax rate and variations in progressivity. Nonetheless, this decomposition between the average tax rate and progressivity may be further exploited to obtain some information that can be relevant to assess tax reforms. The main aim of this study is to draw up some indicators that can be useful to quantify the effects of non‐revenue neutral tax reforms. These indicators are used to investigate the last personal income tax reforms that have taken place in Spain.     

Labor or consumption taxes? An application with a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents

This study analyzes the effects of tax reform that shifts tax burden from labor to consumption. In this context, I also deal with the issue of progressivity. Even though this kind of tax policy change has recently gained popularity, its positive effects are debatable while the offsetting effect of a consumption tax on labor supply makes the net output change rather ambiguous. I examine these effects using a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The model is calibrated to fit certain characteristics of the Finnish economy. In addition to output and employment effects, I study the tax reform's effect on income and wealth distribution. First, I find that eliminating progressivity in labor taxation increases output via increase in capital accumulation that comes, however, in expense of slightly more inequality. Then, tax reform that replaces progressive labor taxes with a flat-rate consumption tax leads to a significant rise in capital accumulation, a negligible change in labor supply and gross labor income distribution, but a relatively considerable increase in wealth concentration.     

Progressivity of the Commonwealth Personal Income Tax, 1917–1997

This article assesses changes in personal income tax progressivity since 1916–17. Before World War II, legislative action changed tax progressivity; after, declines mainly reflected tax policy inertia.     

Flat tax? Maybe not a bad idea after all

This work studies the actual degree of progressivity in the Italian tax and transfer system and examines possible reforms towards the optimum. It analyzes the distribution of personal income and effective tax rates across the Italian population, computing income and tax liabilities from survey data, and studies the optimal level of progressivity. To this end, it uses a model developed in Heathcote et al. (2017) with heterogeneous agents where skill investment and labor supply are endogenous and the government provides a public good under a balanced budget. All the main tradeoffs that shape optimal progressivity appear: the presence of inequality in initial conditions and imperfect private insurance push for positive progressivity, whereas labor supply and skill investment call for regressivity. The model suggests a drastic reduction in progressivity under both the baseline and the alternative specifications. In particular, it calls for substantial reductions in marginal tax rates above approximately 0.25 times the mean income along with increased tax rates at the lower end of the income distribution. These reforms may be approximated by a flat tax at 29% under the baseline and at 32.5% under the alternative specification, holding the required positive level of progressivity constant.     

Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.     

Income distribution and redistribution through taxation: An international comparison

Income tax progressivity is studied with Generalized Entropy measures of inequality. Luxembourg Income Study data sets for nine countries are used for international comparison and analysis. progressivity indices are generated by using the Generalized Entropy family as well as Atkinson measures. We further our understanding by examining pre-tax and post-tax measures of inequality based respectively on gross and disposable household incomes. The decomposition property is shown to be desirable for enhancing our knowledge of income inequality and the redistributive effect of income taxes. Thus decomposition based on family size and number of earners is conducted. We learn that countries vary in their emphasis regarding redistributive effects of income taxes.     

Optimal tax progressivity in unionised labour markets: What are the driving forces?

In labour markets with collective wage bargaining higher progressivity of the labour income tax creates a trade-off. On the one hand, wages are lowered and unemployment decreases, on the other hand, the individual labour supply decision is distorted at the hours-of-work margin. The optimal level of tax progressivity within this trade-off is determined using a numerical general equilibrium model with imperfect competition on the goods market, collective wage bargaining and a labour-supply module calibrated to empirically plausible elasticity values. The model is calibrated to macroeconomic and institutional parameters of both the OECD average and a number of individual OECD countries. In most cases the optimal degree of tax progressivity is below the actual level. A decomposition approach shows that the optimal level is increased by high unemployment and by the general tax level.     

Efficient Migration and Income Tax Competition

This paper examines the consequence of the brain drain for the income tax systems of the source and destination countries for the migration, if the two countries' policies are set noncooperatively by self–interested voters. It is assumed that the brain drain does increase the value of world output: workers with the highest income–earning ability are assumed to be more productive in one country than in another. There are costs to migration of these high–ability workers, costs that are less than the gain in the value of their production. However, for lower–ability workers, the gains in production in moving from the low–productivity country to the high–productivity country are assumed to be less than the migration costs. Voters in the high–productivity country want to capture rents from migrants. These voters are aware of the influence their tax policy has on people's migration decisions. Voters in the low–productivity country also behave strategically. I solve for the Nash equilibrium income tax rates. Increased mobility of highly skilled workers cannot decrease, and may increase, progressivity in the income tax system of the destination country, if migration actually occurs. Finally, the effects of transfers between countries on their income tax systems are examined. Redistribution between countries tends to lead to less redistribution within countries. If transfers between countries are set by a vote of all residents of both countries, then the transfer chosen will be the one that leads to the least progressive tax possible being chosen in each country.     

Are Progressive Income Taxes Stabilizing?

We assess the stabilizing effect of progressive income taxes in a monetary economy with constant returns to scale. It is shown that tax progressivity reduces, in parameter space, the likelihood of local indeterminacy, sunspots and cycles. However, considering plausibly low levels of tax progressivity does not ensure saddle‐point stability and preserves as robust the occurrence of sunspot equilibria and endogenous cycles. It turns out that increasing progressivity, through its impact on after‐tax income, makes labor supply more inelastic. However, even when large, tax progressivity does not neutralize the effects of expected inflation on current labor supply which may lead to expectation‐driven business fluctuations.     

DOES SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL RESEARCH REDUCE MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY?

This paper explores whether conducting scientific and technical (S&T) research reduces the volatility of output growth. The paper finds robust evidence that output volatility is significantly lowered by a country's production of S&T publications. The results show that the effect of S&T publications on output volatility is particularly strong in middle‐income, OECD and other high‐income countries. However, for East‐Asian, low‐income and sub‐Saharan African countries the effect is either weak or absent. These results provide strong evidence that not only OECD and other high‐income countries are actively engaged in S&T research, emerging developing countries are also conducting S&T research, which is effective in reducing output volatility. The results are robust to adding a host of control variables, various subsamples and different estimation techniques.     

The Institutionalist Perspective on Recent Theories of Direct Foreign Investment: A Comment on McClintock

This article holistically addresses the effective (relative) income tax contribution of a given income (or, wealth) group. The widely acclaimed standard in public policy is the absolute benefaction of a given income group in filling up the fiscal coffers. Instead, we focus on the ratio of the average income tax rate of an income group divided by the percentage of national income (or wealth) appropriated by the same income group. In turn, we develop the Fiscal Inequality Coefficient which compares the effective percentage income tax payments of pairs of income (or wealth) groups. Using data for the United States, we concentrate on pairs such as the Bottom 90% versus Top 10%, Bottom 99% versus Top 1%, and Bottom 99.9% versus Top 0.1%. We conclude that policy makers with a strong social conscience should re-evaluate the progressivity of the income tax system and make the richest echelons of the income and wealth distributions pay a fairer and higher tax.     

生态赤字税：绿色发展与税制改革*

本文在量化生态占用并评估生态价值基础上,提出运用税收实现超额生态占用价值补偿的税收方案,也称生态赤字税。根据税制生态化的改革思路,本文运用CGE模型分析了征收生态赤字税和降低所得税的政策效应。本文研究发现：(1)在各税收方案中,生态赤字减少,就业增加,支持双重红利假说,全行业中间投入减少相对总产出减少更大,名义GDP保持增长;(2)实际GDP在生态赤字税基础上仅减少企业所得税的方案中下降,同时减少个人所得税则能实现增长,此时减税额低于生态赤字税收入;(3)在开征生态赤字税同时,降低个人所得税在保持经济增长方面较好,降低企业所得税在减少生态赤字方面较好,但降低企业所得税所减少的生态赤字价值低于降低个人所得税时劳动和资本增加值的提高。本文建议在完善生态占用核算基础上开征生态赤字税,并减轻所得税,促进经济增长由资源环境消耗转向劳动和资本投入的绿色发展。     

The Austrian income tax tariff, 1955–2006

Using official statistics and tax laws, we outline and discuss the evolution of the personal income tax in Austria since the beginning of the Second Republic in 1955. Focusing on the tax tariff and its progressivity properties, we identify a period of high (and increasing) progressivity before 1989, followed by a period of diminished progressivity since 1989. While still being a powerful revenue instrument, the Austrian income tax seems to have lost both redistributive impact and political allure.

我国流转税收入分配效应的实证分析

对2002-2009年我国增值税、消费税和营业税在不同收入户城镇居民间的分布及其对收入分配的影响进行综合分析,可得出三点基本判断:一是增值税表现出明显的累退性,且累退的症结在于适用低税率商品的消费需求缺乏收入弹性;二是不同消费品的调节效果相互抵消,消费税对收入分配的整体影响并不明显,但呈逐步向累进性发展的趋势;三是营业税表现出稳定的累进性。全部流转税呈现非常轻微的累退性,决定流转税收入调节效果的主导因素是消费品的需求收入弹性。通过恰当选择课税对象和实施差别税率,特定流转税完全有可能起到缩小收入分配差距的作用。     

EFFECTS OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION: EXAMPLE FROM BULGARIA

This study utilizes the 1992 Bulgarian household budget survey to analyze the distribution of income and income tax burden. Results indicate that the country is characterized by low income inequality, though this is changing rapidly. The findings also show that the present income tax system is progressive and that the urban sector pays much more relative to its income. Despite a steeply graduated statutory tax rate schedule, effective progression is rather modest, indicating significant tax evasion. However, one must view the results of progressivity and urban bias cautiously. As in-kind income becomes monetized and as the economy becomes more market-oriented, both progressivity and urban/rural differences will wane over time.