中国资本市场大繁荣到来

2006年中国资本市场各项改革诱发了证券市场内生增长的系统动力；人民币汇率形成机制改革则进一步提供了其规模扩张的坚实基础——两大线索的扭结昭示着2007年中国经济正快速进入一个从货币化向证券化推进的金融变革期,这种变革将在资本市场展现出活跃的价值创造图景,并为国内投资者提供历史性的盈利机会。     

欧洲跨国并购喜忧参半

全球并购市场持续火爆,特别是欧洲市场一扫阴霾,其强劲走势令人刮目相看.而其背后深藏的原因更是发人深思     

Currency futures, news releases, and uncertainty resolution

The effects of domestic macroeconomic news releases on futures on the British Pound (BP), Canadian Dollar (CD), Deutsche Mark (DM), Japanese Yen (JY), and Swiss Franc (SF) are examined. The results show that all five futures respond to the release of macroeconomic news, especially the first set of news releases issued at 7:30 a.m. (CST). Results of tests that identify the effects of individual announcements suggest that news in the Employment Report, the Trade Deficit, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization affects all five futures. Other announcements do not have such widespread effects. Volatility increases following the announcements persist for some time. Such increases are not uniform across the five instruments. For instance, following the 7:30-a.m. announcements, for the JY, BP, and SF, higher variance is observed for 30 min. However, for the DM and CD, the increase is 45 and 15 min, respectively.     

Market reaction to anticipated announcements

In this paper we analyze how anticipating a forthcoming public announcement affects the market reaction to the announcement by altering investors' incentives to acquire private information. Specifically, we study price change, volume, and information asymmetry at the time of the announcement. We also investigate how information acquisition, information asymmetry, price, and volume are influenced by the quality of prior knowledge, the marginal cost of gathering information, the degree of risk tolerance, and noise. Finally, we compare market reactions to anticipated announcements of known precision with the response to announcements that are either unanticipated or of uncertain quality.     

债市在彷徨中等待消息

今年3月份以来,债券市场一直受到宏观经济及央行政策不确定性的影响,参与者对未来政策预期发生明显变化,市场一直横盘振荡等待后续调控政策的明朗。近期公布的上半年宏观经济数据更加重了债券市场对后续调控政策出台的担忧,与此同时,市场不间断的各种即将升息的传     

A rational asymmetric reaction to news: evidence from English football clubs

Using a large dataset of matches played between two publicly traded English football (soccer) clubs, we test for and confirm an asymmetric market reaction to winning and losing and that the stock market respond stronger and slower to bad news (losing) than good news (winning). In contrast to previous studies, we show that financial fundamentals help explain this asymmetry. In particular, club short-term financial performance is negatively impacted by losing but not impacted by winning. Furthermore, losing is a significantly stronger predictor of future match outcomes than winning.     

Market reaction to the 1976 replacement cost disclosures

A variety of tests are conducted to determine whether replacement cost disclosures as mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission's Accounting Series Release 190 provided information to capital market agents. In particular, the fiscal year 1976 disclosures made in early 1977 are examined. Information content is assessed by observing distributions of rates of return on common stocks. These distributions are estimated using both time series and cross-sectional data. No evidence of information content is found.     

Wall Street’s bailout bet: Market reactions to house price releases in the presence of bailout expectations

The rise and subsequent collapse of US house prices was one of the factors underlying the recent financial crisis. One could expect that the crisis brought increased attention to the housing market and thus led to stronger market reactions to house price news. We find that reactions indeed change, but with a peculiar twist: from September 2008 on, good news from the housing market are associated with falling US stock prices, and vice versa. The likely explanation, for which we provide cross-sectional evidence, is that falling house prices increased the market’s trust in a government bailout, thereby increasing market valuations of firms that were expected to benefit from government rescue measures.     

Market reaction to takeover rumour in Internet Discussion Sites

We examine the market reaction to takeover rumour postings in the Hotcopper Internet Discussion Site (IDS). Results from the interday analysis show abnormal returns and trading volumes on the day before and the day of the posting. Results of the intraday analysis show abnormal returns and trading volumes during the 10 min posting interval and abnormal trading volume during the 10 min interval immediately preceding it. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the results are robust to concerns regarding potential confounds, credibility and bid–ask spread bias. Taken together, these findings are consistent with the market reacting to the posting of takeover rumours in IDS.     

Market reaction to the formation of one-bank holding companies

This study examines the question of whether or not the formation of one-bank holding companies is of such importance as to materially affect the return generating process for the associated common stock issues. As such this study attempts to provide the security analyst with answers as to how best to define the parameters of the distribution of firm returns, that is, which past observations are relevant to the firm's present return generating mechanism. The results of the tests performed indicate that the formation of a one-bank holding company generally does not have a significant impact on the return generating mechanism for the underlying stock of the affected bank. Thus, the market does not appear to attach any real significance to this particular shift in organizational form by the commercial banks studies.     

Market reaction to quantitative and qualitative order backlog disclosures

Analysts and practitioners have long sought information on order backlog (OB) as indicators of future sales, and in turn, of future earnings and stock returns. OB disclosures, though mandatory for annual reports, are voluntarily included in some quarterly reports and are sometimes presented only in textual narration. Given that the required annual OB data may be partially preempted by voluntary quarterly disclosures, we test whether quarterly OB disclosures are used by market participants, especially the qualitative OB disclosures, which were not tested before. We show that OB growth is helpful in forecasting future sales and thus assign a positive tone to qualitative OB disclosures that indicate OB growth. Both quarterly quantitative OB increases and positive qualitative tone are associated with immediate and drift returns, after controlling for other disclosures during the quarterly earnings announcements and variables that affect voluntary disclosure. Our results indicate that regulators may need to consider requiring OB disclosures in quarterly intervals when OB is sufficiently material.     

Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics

The publicly traded Boston Celtics Limited Partnership shares provide a unique means of studying the impact of information on equity prices. The results of the Celtics’ basketball games significantly affect partnership share returns, trading volume, and volatility. Controlling for the expectedvalue of the signal using betting-market point spreads has little effect on these relations. Investors respond asymmetrically to wins and losses, and playoff games have a larger impact on returns than regular-season games. Opening prices do not fully reflect game results, consistent with previous findings that significant volatility is caused by traders acting on private information.     

Market reaction to increased loan loss reserves at money-center banks

On May 19, 1987, Citicorp announced (after markets closed) that it would add $3 billion to its loan loss reserve in recognition of the poor quality of outstanding loans to Third World countries. Eleven other money-center banks followed this policy over the next five months. The reported reactions of politicians, economists, and market analysts to the increased loan loss reserves varied from despair to praise. Nevertheless, the important issue is the investor's reaction as evidenced by changes in the market prices of the banks' stock. This article uses an event study methodology to shed some light on the issue.Florida Atlantic University     

Market reaction to the merger announcements of US banks: A non-parametric X-efficiency framework

This paper investigates the short-term market reaction of nine profit-efficiency, pre-classified merger deals of US banks over the time period from 1992 to 2003. The findings show that mergers combining low efficiency acquirers and targets create significant market returns following the merger event, while mergers combining the least efficient acquirers with moderately efficient targets diminish the acquirer's wealth more than any other type of merger. Furthermore, findings show that acquirers generally lose about 2.5% of their wealth upon the merger announcement while targets experience, on average, significant market returns of 15.5% following the merger announcement.The findings of the cross sectional analysis show that the CARs of acquirers are positively related to their technical efficiency and geographic diversification, while targets' CARs are negatively related to both target size and revenue efficiency.     

Good growth,bad growth: Market reaction to capital raising for REIT expansion

When a firm issues security to finance its growth, how does the market react and do investors differentiate between good and bad growth? By manually reading the intended use of proceeds of each security offering of U.S. REITs during 2000–2020, we classify whether the proceeds are used for expansionary or other purposes and analyze whether security offerings that are used to finance sub-optimal growth matter for shareholders' wealth. Adopting an event study method, we find that the expansionary use of proceeds does not affect shareholders' wealth following a debt offering announcement. However, when we distinguish good growth from bad growth, we find that debt financing used for good growth is associated with an increase in shareholders' wealth (+1.734% abnormal return in the 5-day event window) and debt financing used for bad growth is associated with a decrease in shareholders' wealth (−0.563% abnormal return in the 5-day event window). For equity offering announcements, on average, neither the expansionary use of proceeds nor the nature of growth significantly affects shareholder wealth.     

财政刺激政策的难题

在国际金融危机的影响下,许多国家采取加大财政支出的政策促进经济复苏。但是,这些财政刺激政策在现实中却遇到了一些难题:居民边际消费倾向的偏低、大国内的地区差异,以及财政年度平衡制度的弊端等。由于这些难题的存在,单纯依靠增加财政支出规模促进经济复苏的刺激政策的实施效果充满了不确定性。     

The reaction of bank stock prices to news of derivatives losses by corporate clients

From March through May of 1994, several large nonfinancial firms announced millions of dollars in losses from derivatives deals, especially those arranged by Bankers Trust. Accompanying these announcements and related news stories were allegations that Bankers Trust had either misrepresented, lied, or deceived its clients. Using SUR methods, we investigate how these announcements affected Bankers Trust and three portfolios of banks: dealers, nondealers, and nonusers. Our results indicate significant cumulative abnormal returns of −12.14% (Bankers Trust), −5.56% (13 dealer banks), and −2.45% (32 nondealer, user banks). The evidence suggests an intra-industry, information-transfer effect consistent with rational pricing. The replacement cost of derivative contracts is an important factor in explaining the variation in abnormal returns across banks.     

Market reaction to optimistic bias in the recommendations of chaebol-affiliated analysts

Using the setting of chaebol industrial organizations in Korea, which allows for the study of a unique affiliation between a chaebol group and financial analysts, we examine whether investors react to an optimistic bias in affiliated analysts’ recommendations. Our initial market return tests, abnormal trading volume tests and independent analysts’ reaction tests suggest that investors and independent analysts recognize and discount an optimistic bias in chaebol-affiliated ‘buy’ recommendations. However, long-term market returns are more profitable in terms of affiliated analysts’ ‘buy’ recommendations than independent analysts’ recommendations, which suggests that investors excessively discount chaebol-affiliated ‘buy’ recommendations in the short-term.     

Market reaction to and valuation of IFRS reconciliation adjustments: first evidence from the UK

We investigate the market reaction to, and the value-relevance of, information contained in the mandatory transitional documents required by International Financial Reporting Standards 1 (2005). We find significant negative abnormal returns for firms reporting negative earnings reconciliation. Although the informational content of the positive earnings adjustments is value-relevant before disclosure, for negative earnings adjustments it is value-relevant only after disclosure. This finding is consistent with managers delaying the communication of bad news until IFRS compliance. A finer model shows that adjustments attributed to impairment of goodwill, share-based payments, and deferred taxes are incrementally value-relevant but that only the impairment of goodwill and deferred taxes reveal new information. Our results indicate that mandatory IFRS adoption alters investors’ beliefs about stock prices.