National telecommunications planning in Brazil

During the past 15 years Brazil has undergone a process of rapid modernization in its telecommunications. Starting from a chaotic situation, institutional foundations were established and an ambitious development programme carried out. A fundamental piece of this programme was a planning process that proved to be flexible and adequate to handle the social and economic disparities of the country. The policies that have emerged from the planning process were implemented and provided good economic results and satisfaction to customers.     

Telecommunications planning and the power of expertise

The article points out the often neglected political importance of telecommunications planning experts. It does so by first locating policy planning in the larger socletal phenomenon of technocracy. Next discussed is the relationship of policy planners to political power. Finally the article examines some instances of national telecommunications planning, in particular the USA.     

Competition in telecommunications

The author examines the impact of competition from both domestic and international perspectives. He provides a critique of the pro-competition argument, although a number of advantages of competition are also outlined. The advantages are discussed in relation to equipment and services. International trends towards competition are then described and the disadvantages of such trends are debated in relation to cross-subsidization, interconnection, the telecommunications manufacturing industry, and the market structure. Finally, competition in the international arena is discussed.     

Competition and performance in the UK telecommunications industry

Judging by historical and crossnational experience, privatization of British Telecom promises to increase the rate of expansion of telecommunications usage, but also to redistribute services and charges. Public dissatisfaction with these reallocations could recreate the political discord that stunted the early growth of the British telecommunications manufacturing sector, unless the new technology and regulatory institutions substantially alter the economic environment. More intense competition. rather than prospective changes of network ownership, seem to have improved the seem to have improved the manufacturing industry's performance in recent years.     

Financing telecommunications for rural development

Evidence shows that there has been serious underinvestment in telecommunications facilities in developing countries (DCs). This article analyses the reasons for this neglect, and demonstrates that a major restrictive factor in the development of telecommunications facilities in DCs — particularly in rural areas — has been the absence of adequate foreign exchange financing. Through an analysis of three major mechanisms for financing investment — supplier credits, multilateral lending and bilateral lending — and of the policies of the major institutions involved, the article identifies those policies that will stimulate the expansion of rural telecommunications in DCs.     

Cyprus: A new centre for telecommunications

A rapid expansion of telecommunications facilities on Cyprus in recent years is bringing the island to the fore as a focus for communications in the Middle East region. Its strategic position in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, a communications infrastructure well in advance of that offered by most of the surrounding countries, and fully developed ties with European and Arab countries, are accelerating this already pronounced trend.     

Reform of telecommunications regulation in Japan and Canada

Despite demographic and political differences, Japan and Canada face many similar challenges in the development of new telecommunications policy. These include interbureaucratic conflict, reorganization initiatives by the telcos and policy development by non-elected officials. Differences include the nature of policy change, the role of economic considerations and decision-making processes. This comparative analysis concludes by suggesting that each country may learn useful lessons with respect to public involvement, local rates, local measured service and the process of regulatory change.     

On the role of telecommunications in development

Numerous studies document the relationship between telecommunications and economic development. The main types and relative merits of these are summarized. The paper argues that more of the same will do little to help promote accelerated telecommunications investment in developing countries as needed. Rather, the efforts should now mainly concentrate on conveying existing sector knowledge to governments and international agencies. The paper focuses on examples of simple, proven tools which can be used to supplement telecommunications project analysis for this purpose.     

Economic growth,telecommunications development and productivity growth of the telecommunications sector: Evidence around the world

This paper studies the relationships between economic growth, telecommunications development and productivity growth of the telecommunications sector in different countries and regions of the world. In particular, this study assesses the impact of mobile telecommunications on economic growth and telecommunications productivity. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship between real gross domestic product (GDP) and telecommunications development (as measured by teledensity) for European and high-income countries. However, when the impact of mobile telecommunications development on economic growth is measured separately, the bi-directional relationship is no longer restricted to European and high-income countries. This study also finds that countries in the upper-middle income group have achieved a higher average total factor productivity (TFP) growth than other countries. Countries with competition and privatization in telecommunications have achieved a higher TFP growth than those without competition and privatization. The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services is found to be a significant factor that has improved the TFP growth of the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).     

Israeli cellular telecommunications policy

Recent research has emphasized the role of regulatory measures in the adoption of new technologies, specifically mobile telephony. This study describes in detail the three phases of cellular licensing in Israel. It surveys policy changes and questions their contribution to the public interest, while discussing their underlying objectives. It reveals a pattern by which Israeli regulatory policy has shifted from a public interest focus to a government interest/corporate interest focus.     

Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models

For telecommunication companies to successfully manage their business, companies rely on mapping future trends and usage patterns. However, the evolution of telecommunications technology and systems in the provision of services renders imperfections in telecommunications data and impinges on a company's’ ability to properly evaluate and plan their business. International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Recommendation E.507 provides a selection of econometric models for forecasting these trends. However, no specific guidance is given. This paper evaluates whether simple extrapolation techniques in Recommendation E.507 can generate accurate forecasts. Standard forecast error statistics—mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), median absolute percentage error and percentage better—show the ARIMA, Holt and Holt-D models provide better forecasts than a random walk and other linear extrapolation methods.     

Japan's policy on monopoly and competition in telecommunications

Telecommunications policy in Japan is about to undergo a significant change in the field of domestic telecommunications services. A monopolistic policy has long been maintained - monopoly by the government for the first 80 years and monopoly by the NTT, a domestic common carrier, for the past 30 years. Now, however, a policy of competition is required to meet the needs of citizens and companies when confronted with the age of the information society. This article analyses the trend of past, present and future telecommunications policy in Japan in relation to monopoly and competition.     

Regulation and efficiency in transition: The case of telecommunications in Italy

In regulating the telecommunications industry, the separation between network and retail functions, which is designed to countervail the market power of incumbent operators, is a relevant issue. Despite its importance, little empirical research has addressed the effects of such a separation. Accordingly, this paper provides insights into the consequences of the Italian communications regulatory authority's (AgCom) decision to impose this type of separation on the incumbent telecommunications operator, Telecom Italia. In particular, the studied separation is between the firm's network-related functions, and those used for provision of its communication services. The present research finds that the type of separation implemented by AgCom allows a provider to maintain the advantages of operational scale in its network structure without dampening competition in the existing market for communications services. The study also offers further empirical evidence on the advantages of a composite vs. translog function in analyzing the multiproduct cost structure of a telecommunications operator.     

The future role of international telecommunications institutions

The telecommunications world is being swept by technological and national regulatory changes. The international telecommunication institutions — the ITU, INTELSAT and CEPT — were founded in times when technological trends were more stable and national regulation was more homogeneous. How will they cope with these new changes? In an era of growing heterogeneity, the ITU may need to look increasingly beynd itself to maintain its centrality. Meanwhile, INTELSAT faces challenges from new market entrants and a more flexible approach to new technological and commercial imperatives in satellite and cable services. The EEC is awakening to the need for institutional change within Europe and this is already having an impact on CEPT. It is concluded that to survive and to maintain relevance the existing international institutions will need to initiate changes or face a loss of authority to other institutions such as OECD and EEC.     

Global competition and EEC policy in telecommunications: An Italian perspective

Within the framework of increasing US and Japanese competition, an interpretation is given of the future development lines of European telecommunications. Europe is lagging behind in this sector; this is explained in terms of the subdivision of services at the national level and the fragmentation of industrial areas within the respective countries. The minimum basis for recovery should be the establishment of a common European base in the telecommunications sector. A European scenario is proposed with particular attention devoted to the Italian problems in restructuring and development.     

Productivity analysis of the telecommunications sector in China

This paper applies the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to measure the productivity performance of China's telecommunications sector at the provincial level. The results indicate that the efficiency scores for different provinces and regions are diverse: the efficiency scores of the provinces in the eastern region are significantly higher than those in the central and western regions. The differences in efficiency scores are mainly due to the differences in the operating environments of different provinces, rather than the efficiency performance of telecommunications enterprises. The results also suggest that labour redundancy and excess capacity of long-distance optical cable lines are major problems in China's telecommunications sector. After a period of rapid growth in investment and number of subscribers, it is time for the telecommunications sector to consolidate and to put more emphasis on productivity growth in order to meet the challenges posed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments.     

An assessment of the 2008 telecommunications restructuring in China

The restructuring in the Chinese telecom sector in 2008 has prompted heated discussion among telecom analysts and experts. Past research tends to take an optimistic view that China has embarked on a liberalizing route, resulting in utopian projections that domestic competition and foreign liberalizing forces would lead to the emergence of a telecom market operated primarily under the principles of free market economics in the near term. This paper, instead, argues that current telecom restructuring was largely driven by domestic agendas. Drawing from the bargaining perspective, this paper finds that, while it is true that market mechanisms play a significant role in the telecom industry, the impact of competition and privatization on the telecom market ultimately depends on the political endowments of Chinese society.     

Sequencing in telecommunications reform: A review of the Turkish case

This paper reviews the Turkish case of telecommunications reform with reference to the evidence from the sequencing literature. Turkey’s progress is in line with the proper sequencing of reform suggested by the literature. Accordingly, Turkey has pursued a gradualist approach by restructuring its public utility, the Posts, Telegraph and Telephone Company, and creating Turk Telecom in 1994; establishing the sector regulator, the Turkish Telecommunications Authority, in 2000; and liberalising the sector in 2003 before selling 55% of Turk Telecom to Oger Telecom, a private company, in 2005. Although the proper sequencing of reform was implemented, the Turkish telecommunications sector has not been functioning satisfactorily as yet, as indicated in the recent progress report of the European Union about Turkey’s accession and as revealed by the performance indicators analysed in this paper. The prevailing information, incentive and commitment problems require a close cooperation by the government with the regulators so as to ensure and reinforce the autonomy of the Telecommunications Authority and to establish a more transparent decision-making process.     

Interceptability of telecommunications: Is US and Dutch law prepared for the future?

For many decades, governments have successfully intercepted telecommunications to collect information about—potential—criminals and terrorists. A crucial part of contemporary policy is legislation that requires telecommunications providers to make their networks and services interceptable. This paper discusses two examples of interceptability legislation: the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act (CALEA) in the US and the Telecommunications Act in the Netherlands, in order to focus on basic questions, considerations, and trade-offs relevant to designing legal interceptability laws.     

Regulation to deregulation: the telecommunications sector and industrialization : Evidence from the Pacific rim and basin

Evidence from the Pacific and elsewhere suggests that countries deregulate their telecommunications sectors as economic development proceeds. Theoretical considerations support this, since arguments for (against) deregulation are mostly applicable to industrialized (developing) countries. Several such arguments are surveyed. Actual instances of telecommunications deregulation in Pacific countries are also cited to confirm this hypothesis. The scarcity and simplicity of telecommunications in early development stages favour cooperative, regulated solutions; as technological progress makes services more abundant and varied, competitive, deregulated approaches become more attractive.