基于Logit模型上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

本文采取主成分分析方法,将主要因子提取出再运用Logit模型构建预测企业财务失败的模型,并把沪深两地证券市场的ST公司界定为"财务失败企业",选取20家ST公司及与之相对应的20家非ST公司共40家企业作为研究样本,对上市公司财务失败的主成分预测模型进行实证检验。     

基于Logistic模型的上市公司财务风险预警研究

财务风险预警是目前理论界和实务界关注的焦点。通过选取2011年沪深交易所上市的50家ST类公司及其配对的50家非ST类公司为样本,建立Logistic预警模型并进行了预警验证,研究发现:Logistic预警模型对上市公司财务风险的预警结果的准确率达到了86%,且离ST的时间越近,结果越准确;此外,模型对非ST类公司的分析结果要比对ST类公司的准确。增强对财务风险预警的管理,企业应加快建立内部控制和财务预警制度,树立内部风险管理的意识,加强相关人员的综合素质,以从源头上有效遏制企业财务危机,提高企业经济效益。     

基于Cox生存模型的上市公司财务困境预测研究

本文采取Cox生存模型进行财务困境预测,选取我国制造业40家ST上市公司和260家非ST上市公司进行实证研究,在训练好的模型基础上进行预测,得出企业出现财务困境的影响因素和程度,并选取10家上市公司进行危机时点预测,实证结论与实际情况相符。 Cox模型对上市公司具有危机预警的应用指导意义。     

创业板上市公司财务风险实证研究

本文使用多元判别法,采用中国A股市场ST和非ST两类企业实际财务比率数据,按照与首批创业板上市公司同行业、规模相近原则,选择112家企业为样本,构建创业板上市公司财务风险分析模型,并利用该模型对首批28家创业板上市公司财务状况进行分析,以供广大投资者决策参考。     

基于Z值模型的上市公司财务预警分析——以北京市为例

如何运用财务预警系统揭示企业面临的财务危机,是国内外财务研究的一大难题。从Z值模型角度,从北京市A股上市公司中选取8家ST、*ST和13家经营良好的公司作为样本,进行实证分析,Z值模型对北京市上市公司财务预警具有一定的有效性,在我国具体运用Z值模型时还应注意我国会计制度与国际惯例的距离,样本指标的畸变,财务报表真实客观性,企业政策等因素。     

广东上市公司的财务困境预警系统研究

财务困境的发生是一个循序渐进的过程,它的可预测性敦促人们不断地探究,以求建立一套科学的财务困境预警系统。本文以广东省上市公司为研究对象,选取了该省上市公司中所有27家ST公司和与其配对的27家非ST公司为样本,采用Logistic回归模型方法进行研究,建立了预测精度比较高的预警模型。结果表明该模型对检验样本的判别结果与实际结果接近,较高的判别率进一步证明了我们根据Logistic回归分析方法建立的预警模型的实用性和准确性。     

基于Logit模型的上市公司财务危机预警分析——以制造业上市公司为例

本文使用Logit模型构建A股制造业上市公司的财务危机预警模型,将ST公司界定为存在财务危机的上市公司,利用20家ST公司和20家非ST公司的财务数据进行计量分析,建立可靠的预测模型来实现对财务危机的预警。     

基于二项Logistic回归的上市公司财务预警实证研究

在本文研究中,通过以2015年上半年12家因为连续亏损3年被特别处理(被ST)的上市公司和12家财务运行正常(未被ST)的上市公司为样本,运用独立样本T检验方法筛选指标,并基于二项Logistic回归分析方法,通过SPSS统计软件建立了上市公司被ST前三年的logistic财务预警模型。该实证研究表明,模型整体预警识别率高达91.67%,这说明该模型的预测准确度较高。     

财务危机预警模型研究

本文把上市公司中的*ST板块界定为有财务危机的企业,选取15家*ST公司作为研究样本,同时选取15家非ST公司作为配对样本,组成一个样本量为30的估计样本组,选取这些公司2007年的20个财务指标作为研究变量,采用主成分分析法建立财务危机预警模型。再选取30家非ST公司作为检验样本组,然后用该样本组对模型的有效性进行检验,得出本文建立的模型可以提前预测财务危机的结论。     

基于Logit模型的上市公司财务预警分析

随机选取沪深两市被ST的20家上市公司的年报数据作为目标样本,采用SPSS19.0的Logit回归模型建立的方法技术确定模型常量及变量权重,并另随机选取236家上市公司财务数据作为检测样本,以识别Logit模型对上市公司财务预警的准确度。     

Similarities and differences in small and large corporation beliefs about capital structure policy

Theoretical researchers posit many factors that affect a firm's capital structure decisions. Theory also suggests that these influences will have different impacts on small and large firms. However, empiricists face difficulties in testing these hypotheses due to problems of quantifying the motivations, expectations, and preferences prevalent in the various theories.To test some of the strands of theory and to determine differences between small and large corporation capital structure beliefs, a survey was sent to financial managers of 405 small corporations; 27% of the surveys were completed and returned. By comparing the results of this survey to those of previously published large corporation surveys, similarities (e.g., belief in a financing pecking order, little belief in the importance of bankruptcy costs, agency costs, and information asymmetries) and differences (e.g., less reliance by small firms on target debt ratios, greater preference for zero debt by the small firms) were identified.     

Managing Brand in the New Stakeholder Environment

The corporate sustainability, and responsibility, movement has considerable implications for and impact on the discipline of brand management. It creates pressures to which the discipline must adjust, and new growth opportunities for it to enjoy.In Maio's view, "brand" permeates all aspects of the corporation and therefore the values of the brand can serve as an effective touchstone for all corporate behaviours: in the Boardroom, in financial markets, in negotiations with employees, in customer interactions, in dialogue with other stakeholders. Moreover, most corporations already have "plumbing" in place (the organizational substructures and processes to manage their brand), that can serve as effective conduits for nurturing values-driven behaviours and measuring them.     

我国金融资产管理公司实行股份制改革的思考

本文探讨了资产管理公司在体制、机制等方面存在的问题与不足,探索性的提出中国金融资产管理公司的发展方向,即实行股份制改革,实现投资主体多元化,将金融资产管理公司转变为“产权清晰、权责明确、政企分开、管理科学”的、以市场规则为原则的市场化经营性公司,并论证其必然性与可行性。     

On Changing Organizational Cultures by Injecting New Ideologies: The Power of Stories

Recent corporate legal and ethical meltdowns suggest that avoiding such harms to companies and to society requires a significant culture change within the organization. This paper addresses the issue of what it takes to change a corporate culture. While conventional wisdom may suggest that a change requires only the institution of an ethics office with proper reporting paths and an ethics code, such an approach is only a beginning. Many large corporations, especially those in danger of legal and ethical catastrophes, need to undertake multiple initiatives to generate a new culture that manifests new values and new vocabularies. A cultural change accomplished by changing large numbers of personnel is expensive in financial and human terms. One component of a less costly approach is to tell new and different stories within the corporation because stories establish the cultural DNA that gives organizations, families, and individuals their identities. Such changes in individual firms, however, are influenced by the ideological assumptions within which and under which the industry and the society operates.     

全球生产网络、俘获效应与集群企业转型升级——整合性分析框架与政策建议

随着全球生产网络理论的兴起,嵌入跨国公司所主导的全球生产网络已经成为发展中国家产业集群以及集群内企业转型升级的重要选择,但是这一过程中集群企业却往往会产生"俘获效应"并陷入"低端锁定"的不利局面。对此,基于跨国公司因素、集群环境因素和企业自身因素系统构建了导致集群企业产生"俘获效应"的三维度整合性分析框架,然后基于此分析框架并结合我国企业众多成功案例,从企业和政府角度系统提出了促进全球生产网络条件下我国集群企业规避"俘获效应"实现成功转型升级的策略选择。     

物流上市公司经营效率评价:基于2007-2010的实证研究

用C2R-BC2模型动态评价了37家物流上市公司2007-2010年间的经营效率。研究发现总技术效率值较低,且受金融危机影响大幅下降,四年间都达到DEA有效的只有5家公司;纯技术效率值较高,几乎不受金融危机影响,四年间都达到DEA有效的有13家公司;规模效率值也较低,而且与总技术效率值呈现出一致趋势的变化,同样受金融危机影响而大幅下降,四年间都达到DEA有效的也只有5家公司;在地区差异上,西部地区和环渤海地区经营效率相对较高。因此,规模效率是决定物流上市公司经营效率的主要因素,而且物流上市经营效率受金融危机等宏观经济因素影响的程度非常大。     

Corporate Governance and the Responsibility of the Board of Directors for Strategic Financial Reporting

One of the fundamental principles of good corporate governance is transparency, i.e., the disclosure of private information to external stakeholders, so that they may make judgments and decisions relating to the corporation. Equally important, but less discussed, is the competing value that corporations need to protect legitimate secrets. Corporations thus need a communication strategy for dealing with external stakeholders which addresses the conflict between disclosure and secrecy. This article focuses on an important element of that communication strategy in the context of financial reporting: the possibility that corporate insiders may consider it in their interest, or in the interest of specific stakeholders, to alter or manipulate the financial information that it discloses publicly. Using concepts from the corporate governance and financial reporting literatures, it addresses the ethical question of who (management or the board of directors) should be responsible for making the fundamental strategic choices whether and (if so) how the corporation alters or manipulates the financial information. This article argues that the board of directors is responsible for formulating (and monitoring) the corporation's communication strategy, and that management is responsible for carrying it out.     

Factors Affecting Managers' Decision to Bribe: An Empirical Investigation

In recent years, global corporations, especially in the oil and mining sectors, have been speaking the language of development. While corporations are increasingly being imputed a major development role by multilateral organizations, this remains a controversial topic. Even more controversial is the question of whether corporations make a meaningful contribution to development in conflict situations or the absence of democratic government. Some firms, however, such as Talisman Oil, do try to justify their operating in conflict zones such as Sudan on this very basis. This paper contends that Talisman has not contributed to development, but rather is a part of the problem. The paper also develops a more general argument as to why this situation is not particular to Talisman, but is likely to hold for any corporation operating under similar circumstances.     

Assessing the Accountability of the Benefit Corporation: Will This New Gray Sector Organization Enhance Corporate Social Responsibility?

In recent years the benefit corporation has emerged as a new organizational form dedicated to legitimizing the pursuit of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Eschewing traditional governmental authority, the benefit corporation derives its moral legitimacy from the values of its owners and the oversight of a third party evaluator. This research identifies the benefit corporation as a new type of gray sector organization (GSO) and applies extant theory on GSOs to analyze its design. In particular, it shows how the theory of GSO accountability can be used to assess the potential of benefit corporations for enhancing CSR. This research first examines the statutes that have established benefit corporations in five states in the US, along with bills in other states, to show how legislation defines their specific public benefits and holds them accountable for delivering these benefits. It then compares the accountability of the benefit corporation with that of other corporate-centric GSOs, e.g., GSOs that closely resemble traditional corporations. It concludes with significant design-based concerns about the utility of the benefit corporation as an effective organization for implementing CSR.     

Financial profiles and the disclosure of expenditures for socially responsible purposes

Recently the relationship between “socially responsible” activities and the financial performance of corporations has received attention in the business literature. Most studies have focused on the market reaction of shareholders to the disclosure of both monetary and nonmonetary corporate contributions relating to pollution control, employee welfare, affirmative action, and other activities deemed to be in the public interest. Results of this research have been mixed, with some authors finding favorable market response to socially responsible actions, and others finding no difference between the market performance of more and less responsible firms. The purpose of this paper is to examine financial performance and socially responsible activities from a different perspective. Specifically, it examines the relationship between the disclosure of monetary expenditures for various social initiatives and composite financial accounting profiles of disclosing and nondisclosing firms. Using two-group discriminant analysis, the authors conclude that management tends to disclose monetary expenditures for these generally nonproductive purposes at times when the financial statements of the firm otherwise look favorable to shareholders. Such disclosure in a sample of Fortune 500 firms in 1976 and 1977 was clearly not unrelated to financial performance, and neither did it appear to occur in order to explain relatively poor financial statements.