The adjustment of external tariffs in the Kemp‐Wan‐Grinols compensation scheme

Abstract.  This paper considers the adjustment of external tariffs when two countries integrate and implement the Kemp‐Wan‐Grinols compensation scheme. Attention is also paid to the restrictions set by Article XXIV of GATT. This paper shows how the external tariffs would change in a three‐good, three‐country model under the assumption of gross substitutability. The results are sensitive to the initial trade pattern. In particular, they depend on the number of goods initially traded between the member countries. The analysis can be extended to a multi‐commodity model if the preferences of the countries have identical CES representation. JEL classification: F11, F15     

Optimal risk‐sharing under adverse selection and imperfect risk perception

Abstract.  The present paper thoroughly explores second‐best efficient allocations in an insurance economy with adverse selection. We start with a natural extension of the classical model, assuming less than perfect risk perception. We characterize the constraints on efficient redistribution, and we summarize the incidence of incentives on the economy with the notions of weak and strong adverse selection. Finally, we show in what sense improving risk perception enhances welfare.     

Optimal Monetary Policy with Price and Wage Rigidities

In this paper, I search for an optimal configuration of parameters for variants of the Taylor rule by using an accurate second‐order welfare‐based method within a fully microfounded dynamic stochastic model, with price and wage rigidities, without capital accumulation. A version of the model with distortionary taxation is also explicitly tested. The model is solved up to second‐order solution. Optimal rules are obtained by maximizing a conditional welfare measure, differently from what has been done in the current literature. Optimal monetary policy functions turn out to be characterized by inflation targeting parameter lower than in empirical studies. In general, the optimal values for monetary policy parameters depend on the degree of nominal rigidities and on the role of fiscal policy. When nominal rigidities are higher, optimal monetary policy becomes more aggressive to inflation. With a tighter fiscal policy, optimal monetary policy turns out to be less aggressive to inflation. Impulse‐response functions based on second‐order model solution show a non‐affine pattern when the economy is hit by shocks of different magnitude .     

Demographics and recent productivity performance: insights from cross‐country comparisons

Abstract.  Over the last few decades, countries have experienced quite different patterns of productivity growth. In this paper, we emphasize the role of country level demographics in explaining these differences. In particular, looking over the period 1960–2002, we show that cross‐country data support the notion that, starting in the late 1970s, countries went through a period of technological transition that lasted at least until the mid‐1990s for the fastest adjusting countries and is still proceeding for the slower adjusting countries. The main claim of the paper is that the country‐level rate of labour growth was a key factor driving the speed of adjustment to the new technological paradigm, implying that much of the cross‐country difference in economic performance over recent decades can be explained by demographic differences across countries as opposed to the many other factors emphasized in the literature. JEL classification: O33, O41     

Innis Lecture: Explorations in medium‐run macroeconomics

Abstract.  Medium‐run macroeconomics refers to aggregate economic phenomena that manifest over periods of 10 to 25 years. This area of research has emerged over the last decade as a new and distinct field of enquiry. In this paper, I overview a set of personal attempts aimed at understanding certain medium‐run phenomena such as: changes in the wage structure, changes in the world distribution of income‐per‐capita, and changes in growth patterns across OECD countries. The goal of the paper is to extract general lessons from these experiences. In particular, I will discuss why models of endogenous technological choice may be a good starting point for studying medium‐run phenomena. JEL classification: E00, O00     

Constitutional Design and Investment in Cooperatives and Investor‐Owned Enterprises

Abstract This paper studies the role of the corporate governance system in cooperatives and in investor‐owned enterprises. We abstract from all possible differences between the two systems except the type of majority needed to take decisions: this is one‐head‐one‐vote for cooperatives and proportional to capital invested in investor‐owned firms. We show that the institutional form chosen matters for the initial investment decision of the agents: in particular we find that members of a cooperative invest less than they would in an investor‐owned enterprise.     

The Impact of the Rating Agencies' Through‐the‐cycle Methodology on Rating Dynamics

Surveys on the use of agency credit ratings reveal that some investors believe that credit‐rating agencies are relatively slow in adjusting their ratings. A well‐accepted explanation for this perception on rating timeliness is the through‐the‐cycle methodology that agencies use. Through‐the‐cycle ratings are intended to measure default risk over long investment horizons and to respond only to changes in the permanent component of credit quality. A second aspect of the through‐the‐cycle methodology is the prudent migration policy. In a benchmark study with a financial ratio‐based credit‐scoring models – an agency‐rating prediction model and default‐prediction models with various time horizons – we confirm the exclusive focus of agencies on the permanent component of credit quality and we model and quantify the agencies' prudent migration policy. A rating migration is triggered only when the rating predicted by the agency‐rating prediction model differs by at least a threshold level of 1.8 notch steps from the actual agency rating. If triggered, ratings are only partly adjusted by 70 per cent at the downside and 60 per cent at the upside. From a 1‐year point‐in‐time perspective, weighting temporary fluctuations in credit quality, the through‐the‐cycle methodology lowers the rating‐migration probability by a factor of 3.5. Both aspects of the through‐the‐cycle methodology contribute equally to this factor. The partial adjustment of ratings lowers the rating‐reversal probabilities on short term and introduces rating drift, the known serial correlation in agency‐rating migrations.     

Tariffs versus quotas in the presence of imperfect competition and cross‐border externalities

Abstract.  We consider trade policies intended to affect the production of a foreign monopolist that generates negative externalities. We derive the optimal tariff and optimal import quota and examine which policy measure should be used to maximize domestic welfare. We find that if the domestic government does not have full information on the foreign firm's production method and if cross‐border externalities exist, import quotas are in some cases preferable to tariffs. Otherwise, however, tariffs are preferable to quotas. JEL Classification: F13, F18     

A complete characterization of Pareto optimality for general OLG economies

In the context of general pure exchange OLG economies where agents can have heterogeneous longevities, we provide both sufficient and necessary conditions for Pareto optimality of competitive equilibria. For the case in which all agents live for the same number of periods, we find that these conditions are equivalent. We also find this equivalence when agents can have different lifetimes, but in this case we need to impose particular restrictions on relative equilibrium prices. Moreover, we show that without these conditions on prices the equivalence, and hence a full characterization, is not necessarily obtained.     

Games in Dynamic‐Epistemic Logic

The author discusses games of both perfect and imperfect information at two levels of structural detail: players' local actions, and their global powers for determining outcomes of the game. Matching logical languages are proposed for both. In particular, at the 'action level', imperfect information games naturally model a combined 'dynamic‐epistemic language'– and correspondences are found between special axioms in this language and particular modes of playing games with their information dynamics. At the 'outcome level', the paper presents suitable notions of game equivalence, and some simple representation results.     

The Co‐initial Swap Market Model

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to the pricing and the risk management of generic European style interest‐rate derivatives. This new model has great flexibility and has the advantage of avoiding complex model calibration techniques typical of standard short‐rate models. Dynamics is assigned on a set of co‐initial forward swap rates, and arbitrage‐free restrictions are determined in a normal and lognormal setup. Model implementation and calibration are discussed, and details of two example applications are also presented.
(J.E.L.: G12, G13).     

International capital flows under asymmetric information and costly monitoring: implications of debt and equity financing

Abstract.  The impact of increased equity trade on a small open economy is examined. Stochastic second‐period output depends on first‐period investment. Owing to information asymmetries, domestic agents cannot reveal credibly the level of first‐period investment to international financiers. Consistent with recent proposals to strengthen the international financial system, domestic firms choose to incur self‐monitoring costs to increase capital inflows. As an alternative to borrowing, domestic agents may sell ownership claims to second‐period output. When equity claims convey information, equity trade is preferred to international borrowing, consistent with developing economies' observed reliance on international equity relative to debt in recent years. JEL Classification: F41, G15     

Export‐market participation and productivity performance in Canadian manufacturing

Abstract.  In this paper, we explore the linkages between export‐market participation and productivity performance in Canadian manufacturing plants. We also examine differences in the relationship between exporting and productivity for foreign‐controlled as opposed to domestic‐controlled plants, and between younger and older plants. Export participation is associated with improved productivity. The effect is much stronger for domestic‐controlled plants than for foreign‐controlled plants and for younger businesses than for older businesses. We interpret this as evidence that there is a learning effect associated with export activity but that the potential for improving productivity with entry to export markets differs across firms. JEL Classification: F1, O4     

Church‐based Credit Cooperatives in Germany

Abstract The traditional business focus of credit co‐operatives is locally oriented and business success is explained by the efficient way to induce monitoring of borrowers. Church‐based credit co‐operatives in Germany are not that locally oriented but were extraordinary successful over the last decades. First, this analysis describes the special characteristics of church‐based institutions compared to other credit co‐operatives. This part is based on a historical backward glance, an analysis of annual reports and a survey on their business policy. Second, we discuss the special characteristics of church‐based credit co‐operatives to explain the business success in a broader context and to understand the perspectives of credit co‐operative banking beyond the local orientation.     

The CES‐‐Translog Production Function, Returns to Scale and AES

The translog functional form imposes no a priori restrictions on the substitution possibilities between the factor inputs, by relaxing the assumption of strong separability, and the CES–translog cost function specification allows for testing homothetic technology with Hicks‐neutral technical change. In this paper an n ‐factor CES–translog production function is presented which develops the parameters to directly assess scale effects from those due to technology in the production structure. In addition, by applying Shephard's lemma it was possible to derive the input demand functions, as well as the partial elasticities of substitution and the cross‐partial price elasticities of demand for a generalized CES–translog production structure.     

Monetary policy in a cash‐in‐advance economy: employment, capital accumulation, and the term structure of interest rates

Abstract.  In this paper we study the effects of monetary policies on employment, capital accumulation, consumption, and the term structure of interest rates in a cash‐in‐advance economy, where money is required for consumption expenditures. Monetary policy involves targeting the inflation rate. The detailed dynamics of the model are fully worked out. As no numerical analysis is involved, we are able to identify very clearly the different channels through which monetary policy will impinge on the important macroeconomic variables. The model is also used to discuss the 'Great Canadian Slump.' JEL Classification: E52 and E43     

Parallelism in the Lab and the Field: Testing Robustness of the Minimum‐Contributing‐Set Mechanism

Efforts to "test" public‐goods provision mechanisms in field settings encounter a fundamental obstacle: investigators cannot determine whether the aggregate valuation of the public good exceeds the cost. Experimental laboratory settings can fix the provision of the public good to be efficient. This allows investigation of the performance of the mechanism under potential field settings. This paper reports the results of a set of laboratory experiments designed to test the robustness of the minimum‐contributing‐set (MCS) mechanism to field conditions. The reported results support further use and investigation of the MCS mechanism for the provision of step‐level public goods.     

Efficiency and Program‐Contract Bargaining in Spanish Public Hospitals

Abstract This paper analyses the evolution of productivity in Spanish public hospitals during the period characterised by the use of program‐contracts. The results demonstrate that a significant improvement has occurred. The decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index shows that efficiency change has been the main contributor to productivity improvement. We also analyse the dynamic implications of program‐contract bargaining. In particular, the data support the hypothesis that the bargaining process has been subject to a ratchet effect, i.e., the more a hospital does today, the more the hospital is asked to do in the future. This result threatens the credibility of the program‐contract as an incentive system .     

Product differentiation, cost‐reducing mergers, and consumer welfare

Abstract.  Cost synergies are an explicitly recognized justification for a two‐firm merger, and empirical techniques are now widely used to assess the impact of cost‐reducing mergers on prices and welfare in the post‐merger market. We show that if the merger occurs in a vertically product differentiated market, then the merger will lead to a reduction in product offerings that limits the usefulness of pre‐merger empirical estimates. Indeed, we further show that in such markets, two‐firm mergers will typically lead to higher prices regardless of the merger's cost savings. JEL classification: L10, L41     

Tariff‐jumping FDI and domestic firms' profits

Abstract.  Studies of trade policy welfare effects often ignore the potential for tariff‐jumping foreign direct investment (FDI) to mitigate positive gains to domestic producers. Using event study methodology we find that affirmative U.S. antidumping decisions are associated with average abnormal gains of over 3% to a firm in the petitioning industry in the absence of tariff‐jumping FDI, but much smaller and statistically insignificant abnormal gains if there is tariff‐jumping FDI. We also find evidence that tariff jumping in the form of new plants or plant expansion has significantly larger negative effects on U.S. domestic firms' profits than other types of tariff‐jumping FDI. JEL Classification: F13, F23, L11