国际短期资本流动与国际货币合作方式的选择

开放经济条件下,一国进行国际货币合作以解除经济相互依存笥所带来的政策约束与负外部性可以通过三种方式实现,分别是国际融资合作、汇率联合管理、货币政策的国际协调。一国对合作方式的选择取决于国 际短期资本的流动性,这是由于不同的资本流动性对一国外部均衡的影响有很大的差异。     

欧元的区域化与国际化研究

本文从分析一种货币国际化需要具备的条件出发,阐述了欧元国际化的程度取决于欧元保证的经济基础,依赖的外部环境及其在国际经济交往中作为交换媒介的普及程度,从而得出这样的结论;欧元首先表现为区域性货币,只有当欧洲联盟从相对封闭的经济一体化逐渐走向开放,增加区域外国家对它的依赖性时,才能充分实现其货币国际化。     

从国际和历史角度看国际资本流动与金融安全问题

近一两年来,在世界许多国家都出现了国民经济金融安全问题的热烈讨论.一些意见主要针对国际资本流动,尤其是针对各种形式的国际资本流入本国经济及可能带来的广泛影响.     

Demographic Change,International Trade and Capital Flows

Trade in goods that are not perfect substitutes can considerably change the predictions of standard neoclassical models about the effects of demographic developments. This paper considers a relative decrease in the population size of one country, when countries specialize in the production of different intermediate goods. The degree of substitutability is crucial for the direction of capital flows between the countries and for the development of wages. The less those goods are substitutes, the stronger the long-run international spillover effects of a demographic shock will be. For the interest rate effects, also international differences in saving rates due to e.g., different pension schemes have to be taken into account.     

国际资本流动的新特征及其影响

随着经济全球化的进一步发展,全球金融市场一体化日益深化,国际资本流动不仅日趋活跃,而且具有了新的特征,国际资本流动的变化对世界经济运行也正在产生正面与负面的影响。国际资本流动的新变化要求各国对于国际资本应该趋利避害,做出及时和合适的应对。     

International Capital Flows and East Asian Economic Dynamism*

A Review Article on The East-West Pendulum by Robert Lloyd George and Foreign Direct Investment and Industrialization in Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, OECD, Paris by Linda Y.C. Lim and Pang Eng Fong     

量化宽松、资本流动与国际间货币政策协调

主要利用美国国际收支(简称BOP)账户、资金流量表等统计数据探讨量化宽松与资本流动之间相互联系。分析表明,国际资本流动与量化宽松之间关系密切,量化宽松是资本流向EMEs的重要原因,反过来资本流动则影响了量化宽松的有效性,量化宽松和资本流动是引发全球货币汇率冲突的关键性因素。各国应通过国际协调促进宏观经济政策的生效和压制冲突,使全球经济得以更加平衡地复苏以压制冲突,而且发达国家应承担更大的调整责任。     

国际外汇市场运行规律与欧元汇率波动前景

自1999年1月启动以来,欧元汇率连续两年不断加速下滑,其波动态势出乎多数人的意外,也超出了一般汇率理论的解释能力.如果说1999年的欧元疲软是市场对欧元出台之前乐观情绪导致的汇率非理性上升的纠正,那么,2000年欧元汇率的波动则有着更深刻的政治经济背景,既反映了世纪末国际外汇市场总体运行特征调整,又与国际经济力量强弱对比变化以及国际资本流动格局调整息息相关.     

人口结构、资本流动与全球经济失衡

本文将资本流动和全球经济失衡纳入同一研究框架,将人口结构提升为影响长期资本流动和全球经济失衡的最重要的因素之一进行探讨,采用面板协整检验、系统广义矩估计模型、混合最小二乘模型、固定效应模型、似无相关模型等实证方法,对一个基于全球126个国家形成的面板数据进行分析和研究。本文发现,老年抚养比和少年抚养比对于经常账户有显著负向影响,实证结果支持了人口结构是长期资本流动和全球经济失衡的重要影响因素这一理论。     

私募股权投资与杠杆收购的经济学研究：国际视角

私募股权及其引发的杠杠收购是近20年来全球资本市场最活跃的现象之一,本文重点从经济学的角度研究私募股权投资发起或参与的杠杆收购,同时关注其部分周边问题。     

The Euro and the Dollar, 1998

There is no immediate prospect for the euro to become an anchor currency outside Central Europe and the Mediterranean. Still, a successful euro could deepen European financial markets and attract more international investment to the euro area. The prospect of substantial portfolio shifts into the euro, however, does not justify forecasts that the new currency will appreciate against the dollar over an extended time horizon. Liability managers outside the euro area should also find the enhanced liquidity and improved diversification possibilities of euro-denominated debt attractive.     

人民币汇率预期、短期国际资本流动与房价

2015年8月,央行进行中间价形成机制改革,人民币汇率预期的波动增强,短期国际资本流动及房价随之呈现出不同的特征。文章探索了三者间的传导机制,发现人民币汇率预期升值会促进短期国际资本流入,而流入的短期国际资本对房价的影响却与汇率预期的波动强度有关。文章采用TVPSV-VAR模型对2010年7月至2016年12月的月度数据进行了实证研究,发现在两次汇改后,汇率预期波动较大,人民币汇率预期升值冲击通过短期国际资本流动更多地作用于房地产的需求端,使房价加速上涨。基于在不同汇率预期波动条件下三者的互动关系特征,文章从人民币汇率预期管理、短期国际资本的管理和引导以及综合管理机制的建立的角度提出政策建议。     

International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets

Recent literature has proposed two alternative types of financial frictions, i.e., limited commitment and incomplete markets, to explain the empirical patterns of international capital flows between developed and developing countries in the past two decades. This paper integrates these two frictions into a two-country overlapping-generations framework to facilitate a direct comparison of their respective effects. In our model, limited commitment distorts the investment made by agents with different productivity, which creates a wedge between the interest rates on equity capital vs. credit capital; while incomplete markets distort the investment among projects with different riskiness, which creates a wedge between the risk-free rate and the mean rate of return to risky capital. We show that the two approaches are observationally equivalent with respect to their implications for international capital flows, production efficiency, and aggregate output.     

The Euro as a Reserve Currency

This paper presents historical and econometric evidence that the euro will come to rival the dollar as a reserve currency only slowly. The fact that it pays for central banks to hold their foreign reserves in a currency that is widely used in international transactions creates a network externality that gives the dollar an incumbency advantage. In addition, creating a market with sufficient stability to be attractive to international investors requires continuous liquidity management and periodic lender-of-last-resort operations by the issuing central bank. That the Maastricht Treaty assumes a strong separation between monetary policy and prudential regulation consequently bodes ill for the euro's prospects as a reserve currency.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 483–506. Department of Economics and Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number F3.     

International Capital Flows,Land Conversion and Wage Inequality in Poor Countries

Open Economies Review - Conversion of land from agricultural to industrial use has met with strong opposition in many developing countries in recent times. A number of relevant papers study welfare...     

货币战争的中国对策:积极应对国际资本流动冲击

积极应对国际资本流动冲击是中国打赢阻击热钱的对策。对于热钱,要做到清楚情况、充分利用、适度监管和妥善引导。     

Border Effect Estimates for France and Germany Combining International Trade and Intranational Transport Flows

Since the seminal contribution of McCallum (1995) economists have tried to estimate the border effect for other countries than the United States and Canada, but have been confronted with a key data problem: data on regional trade flows are extremely rare. The different approaches put forward to overcome this lack of information have been shown to hinge crucially on certain distance measures. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a method that allows us determining border effects with a high degree of accuracy in the absence of intra-national trade data. We show how to improve the estimation of border effects with the example of France and Germany using data on regional transportation flows. Our results indicate that France trades about eight times more and Germany about three times more with itself than with other EU countries, respectively, compared to the predictions of the gravity equation. JEL no. F15     

欧元与社会改革

内林教授是德国著名经济学家,也是德国引人注目的欧元反对者。这篇文稿已用德文、荚文发表,感谢罗敏先生译成中文。经作者同意,专投我刊。内林教授作为一位资深的德国社会民主党人和德国政界、银行界和学术界知名人士,以其特有的坦率的意识形态视角,针对德国和欧洲社会经济的时弊,揭示了隐藏在社会经济表层下的实质问题,并指出动荡根源的症结所在。虽是一家之言,很有独到见解,读后颇有启示,令人深思。相信对我们进一步深入了解德国社会经济及其改革问题会有所帮助。特别刊出以飨读者,并向作者和译者致意。