Financial Restatements, Cost of Debt and Information Spillover: Evidence From the Secondary Loan Market

Abstract:  In this paper, we investigate the effect of financial restatements on the debt market. Specifically, we focus on the secondary loan market, which has become one of the largest capital markets in the US, and ask the following: (1) whether financial restatements increase restating firm's cost of debt financing and (2) whether the information about restatements arrives at the secondary loan market earlier than at the stock market? Using 176 restatement data, we find significant negative abnormal loan returns and increased bid-ask spreads around restatement announcements. Furthermore, this negative loan market reaction is more pronounced when the restatement is initiated by either the SEC or auditors, and when the primary reason for restatement is related to revenue recognition issues. Additionally, we find restatement information arrives at the secondary loan market earlier than at the equity market, and that such private information quickly flows into the equity market. We also show that stock prices begin to decline approximately 30 days prior to the restatement announcements for firms with traded loans. However, we do not find such informational leakage for firms without traded loans. Collectively, the results of this paper suggest: (1) increased cost of debt financing after restatements and (2) superior informational efficiency of the secondary loan market to the stock market.     

The CDS market reaction to restatement announcements

I investigate the credit market's reaction to restatement announcements through changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. I document an overall positive association between CDS returns and restatement announcements. Specifically, I find that more positive CDS returns are associated with restatements (1) involving fraud and (2) affecting more accounts. Moreover, these reactions are sensitive to the underlying entities’ credit ratings and the market‐wide investor sentiment. Next, I compare CDS and stock market reactions and find that more negative stock returns are associated with restatements (1) involving fraud and (2) decreasing reported income.     

Corporate Investments: Learning from Restatements

This study analyzes the information conveyed by the restatements of financial reports. We argue that restatements contain news about the investment projects of the restating firms' competitors. This news causes competitors to revise their beliefs about the projects' value, and to modify their subsequent investment decisions. Accordingly, we hypothesize that changes in competitors' investments after restatement announcements are related to news in the restatements. Consistent with our prediction, we find that changes in competitors' investments following restatement announcements are significantly related to various proxies for news in the restatements, such as competitors' and restating firms' abnormal returns at the restatement announcements. We conclude that restatements convey information about the investment projects of restating firms' competitors.     

Material weakness disclosures and restatement announcements: The joint and order effects

We examine differences in stock price, option volatility, and litigation reactions to restatement announcements that are associated with a material weakness (MW) disclosure. Contrasted with restatements that are not associated with any MW disclosure, our analyses reveal that firms that announce both a restatement and an associated MW experience significantly more negative market returns, greater implied volatility, and higher likelihood of class action lawsuits. Separating the restatements into timely reporters, where the MW precedes the restatement, and non‐timely reporters, where the MW is concurrent with or follows the restatement, we find that timely reporters experience more negative returns at the time of the restatement, relative to non‐timely reporters, suggesting that investors perceive the early MW disclosure to signal more pervasive control‐related problems. Interestingly, we find that timely and non‐timely reporters are equally likely to be sued, consistent with the argument that wrongdoing (through either a timely or non‐timely MW disclosure) provides stronger grounds for establishing scienter. However, timely reporters appear to secure more favorable litigation outcomes: they face higher likelihood of lawsuit dismissals and pay much lower settlements, compared to non‐timely reporters. Overall, our evidence provides new insights into how market participants incorporate information about internal control weaknesses into their perceptions regarding the economic implications of financial restatements, and financial reporting quality.     

The Timeliness of Restatement Disclosures and Financial Reporting Credibility

This study investigates whether prompt discovery and disclosure of earnings restatements is associated with greater post‐restatement financial reporting credibility. We measure the timeliness of restatement detection by the length of time between the end of the misstated period and the subsequent restatement announcement. We document that shorter detection periods are significantly associated with high‐quality corporate governance characteristics and executive and/or auditor turnover, but not with characteristics of restatements. We also find that firms with shorter detection periods exhibit a more moderate decline in the information content of earnings following restatement announcements relative to firms with longer detection periods, and that detection period length has an incremental effect on the information content of earnings relative to executive and/or auditor turnover alone. In addition, we find that restatement disclosures are more timely following the implementation of the SOX‐era reforms, and that only firms with shorter detection periods experience more moderate post‐restatement declines in the information content of earnings following the implementation of the SOX‐era reforms. The results from this study suggest that the timeliness of restatement detection and disclosure is associated with greater financial reporting credibility following restatements.     

盈余重述的市场反应及其影响因素研究——基于我国2004-2010年数据的经验分析

本文以2004-2010年盈余重述为样本,检验了我国盈余重述的市场反应及其影响因素。根据重述披露的时点选择特征,首次提出聚合重述和分离重述概念。研究发现,年报的利好消息或非利好消息对盈余重述负面影响的"抵减效应"或"加剧效应"都十分显著;剔除年报影响的分离重述的市场反应显著为-3%。研究还发现,相对于被动重述,主动重述被认为是"主动说真话"的表现,具有"坦白从宽"的效果;重述追溯调整的幅度、公司盈利能力、财务风险和债务水平,都会显著影响重述公告时的市场反应程度。     

Do post-restatement firms care about financial credibility? Evidence from the pre- and post-SOX eras

This study examines whether negative-market-reaction firms in the year following restatement announcements adopt more conservative financial reporting to respond to their financial reporting credibility crisis, especially in the post-SOX era. Using Basu’s (1997) measure of conservatism, we find that negative-market-reaction firms in the year following restatement announcements report their financial statements more conservatively in the post-SOX era, as the market reaction following restatement announcements becomes more severe. We also find that as the negative market restatement reaction becomes more severe, negative-market-reaction firms using a Big N auditor in the year following financial restatements report their financial statements more conservatively in the post-SOX era.     

Institutional versus retail trades following financial restatements: The effect of Sarbanes-Oxley

Regulators have expressed concern that the growing number and size of financial restatements, especially since the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX), confuse investors and erode confidence in the capital markets. Given the investor protection goal of SOX, of particular concern is the relative accuracy with which retail investors process and trade on the information contained in restatement announcements. In this paper, we adopt a market based approach and examine the accuracy of the trading behavior of retail and institutional investors conditioned upon accounting restatement announcements, both prior- and subsequent to the passage of SOX. We find that retail investors engaged in more inaccurate (i.e., potentially loss-making) trades in the post-SOX period than in the pre-SOX period. In contrast, the accuracy (i.e., conditional profit potential) of institutional investors’ trades does not show any significant difference between the pre- and post-SOX regimes. Thus, we document that retail (but not institutional) investors processed post-SOX restatements more inaccurately than pre-SOX restatements.     

Discretionary disclosure and the market reaction to restatements

This paper presents evidence that management’s disclosure choices related to a restatement are associated with the market reaction at the time the restatement is announced. The two aspects of pre-restatement disclosure choice we examine are the amount of disclosure, hypothesized to reduce information asymmetries, and the tone of disclosure, hypothesized to exacerbate the effect of subsequently-disconfirmed market expectations. Our results provide support for both hypothesized effects, controlling for characteristics that previous research has shown to affect market reaction to restatements—financial attributes of restatements, and concurrent disclosure choices such as prominence of the announcement. We also find that concurrent and prior disclosure characteristics have equivalent and complementary power in explaining market reaction to restatements, while interactive effects indicate that pre-restatement disclosure choices reduce the marginal market impact of concurrent disclosure characteristics.     

Accounting restatements and information risk

We examine the association between accounting restatements and the pricing of information risk. Using the Fama and French three-factor model augmented with discretionary and innate information risk factors, we find a significant increase in the factor loadings on the discretionary information risk factor for restatement firms after a restatement announcement. The increase in factor loadings results in an increase in the estimated cost of capital, which is cross-sectionally associated with the short-window price reaction to restatements. We study several potential determinants of the change in information risk pricing and find evidence consistent with the restatement initiator (auditor vs. firm management) and the number of times a firm restates affecting the change in the pricing of discretionary information risk. We also find an increase, of smaller magnitude, in the pricing of discretionary information risk for non-restatement firms in the same industries as the restatement firms, consistent with an information transfer effect.     

Individual Investor Trading and Return Patterns around Earnings Announcements

This paper provides evidence of informed trading by individual investors around earnings announcements using a unique data set of NYSE stocks. We show that intense aggregate individual investor buying (selling) predicts large positive (negative) abnormal returns on and after earnings announcement dates. We decompose abnormal returns following the event into information and liquidity provision components, and show that about half of the returns can be attributed to private information. We also find that individuals trade in both return‐contrarian and news‐contrarian manners after earnings announcements. The latter behavior has the potential to slow the adjustment of prices to earnings news.     

Early Movers Advantage? Evidence from Short Selling during After‐Hours on Earnings Announcement Days

We examine short sellers’ after‐hours trading (AHT) following quarterly earnings announcements released outside of the normal trading hours. Our innovation is to use the actual short trades immediately after the announcements. We find that on these earnings announcement days, there is significant shorting activity in AHT relative to shorting activity both during AHT on nonannouncements days and during regular trading sessions around announcements. Short sellers who trade after‐hours on announcement days earn an excess return of 0.82% and 1.40% during before‐market‐open (BMO) and after‐market‐close (AMC)sessions, respectively. The magnitude of these returns increases to 1.48 (3.92%) for BMO (AMC) earnings announcements with negative surprise. We find that the reactive short selling during AHT has information in predicting future returns. Short sellers’ trades have no predictive power if they wait for the market to open to trade during regular hours. In addition, we find that the weighted price contribution during AHT increases with an increase in after‐hours short selling. Overall, our results suggest that short sellers in AHT are informed. Our findings remain robust using alternative holding periods and after controlling for macroeconomic news announcements during BMO sessions.     

Reactions of the International Stock Exchange to Company Employment Announcements: Redundancies and New Jobs

This paper is the first to look directly at the reaction of the London market to company announcements of changes to employee count. Using event study methodology, we examine market reactions to 54 redundancy announcements during the period 1990–1999 and 52 announcements of new jobs during the period 1993–1999. In line with previous US studies we find that market reaction, measured by cumulative abnormal returns, is negative before the day of redundancy announcement. The actual redundancy announcement is greeted positively by the market when measured in terms of the mean, but negatively when measured in terms of the median. Thus, in a minority of cases the announcements are seen as value enhancing. The market reacts positively before new job announcements and this positive reaction is highly significant when the announcement is made. The results suggest that new job announcements contain value–relevant information for the market. Potential causal factors other than announcement size are not significant.     

The effect of restatements on trading volume reactions to earnings announcements

This paper examines whether restatements affect trading volume reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. It closely follows the theoretical model developed by Kim and Verrecchia (J Account Econ 24:395–419, 1997) that decomposes the trading volume reactions around earnings announcements into the effects of pre-disclosure and event-period private information, and examines whether restatements change the trading volume reactions to earnings announcements in the post-restatement period. We find that restatements increase the degree of differential event-period information, leading to more divergent interpretation of earnings announcements subsequent to restatements. We also find that investors have less differential pre-disclosure private information in the post-restatement period, consistent with the view that investors’ beliefs converge when facing higher uncertainty in the information environment. Finally, focusing on irregularity restatement firms, we document that the effect of restatements on trading volume is more pronounced for firms announcing restatements after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act and after dismissing auditors and experiencing executive turnover. Overall, these results indicate that restatements affect investors’ behavior in forming judgments regarding earnings announcements.     

Information,uncertainty, and behavioral effects: Evidence from abnormal returns around real estate investment trust earnings announcements

In this study, we examine the influence of real estate market sentiment, market-level uncertainty, and REIT-level uncertainty on cumulative abnormal earnings announcement returns over the 1995–2009 time period. We first document the relative coverage of analysts' earnings forecasts on U.S. REITs, as well as REITs from several countries (i.e., Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Hong Kong, Japan, the Netherlands, and UK). We show that coverage outside of the U.S. is limited, and we consequently focus our analysis on U.S. REITs. We find strong evidence that earnings announcements contain pricing relevant information, with positive (negative) earnings surprises relative to analysts' forecasts resulting in significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns around the announcement date. Consistent with the findings from the broader equity market literature, we find limited evidence of a pre-announcement drift in the cumulative abnormal returns. However, in sharp contrast to the existing equity literature, we find no evidence of a post-earnings announcement drift in our aggregate sample or when the sample is restricted to the largest negative surprises. We find evidence of a post-earnings announcement drift for only the largest positive earnings surprises. These results are consistent with REIT returns more quickly impounding information relative to the broader equity market, in part because of the parallel private real estate market and because of the U.S. REIT structure and information environment. Finally, in our conditional regression analysis of cumulative abnormal returns, we find that real estate investor sentiment, market-wide uncertainty, and firm-level uncertainty significantly affect the magnitude of abnormal announcement returns and also influence the effect of unexpected earnings on abnormal returns.     

Earnings management and corporate spinoffs

In this study we examine whether firms manage earnings before pursuing corporate spinoffs. Using a sample of 226 completed spinoffs between 1985 and 2005, we find strong evidence of pre-spinoff earnings management among parent firms involved in non-focus-increasing spinoffs. We also find higher levels of earnings management among parent firms that have a higher level of information asymmetry prior to spinoff announcements. Our regression results show a significant negative relation between income-increasing earnings management and the announcement period returns for non-focus-increasing spinoffs. In addition, a significant positive relation is found between income-increasing earnings management and the announcement period returns for focus-increasing spinoffs. The results suggest that income-increasing earnings management sends out negative signals about non-focus-increasing spinoffs but positive signals about focus-increasing spinoffs.     

The effects of accounting restatements on firm growth

Do restatements result in lower firm growth? One argument in support of this contention is that accounting restatements hurt contracting relations between the firm and outside parties such as a firm’s customers and suppliers, negatively impacting firm cash flows. The negative impact on cash flow reduces the level of internal cash holdings available for investment. Another argument is that restatements dampen firm growth by increasing the firm’s cost of external financing. We empirically evaluate these arguments by using the standard sales growth based financial planning model. In carrying out our analysis, we distinguish the effects of restatement on overall firm growth as well as its components of internally and externally financed growth. Our findings suggest that overall firm growth rates decline following a restatement. Furthermore, we find that accounting restatements have a greater adverse impact on externally financed growth rates. We also find that not all restatements yield identical effects: the impact of restatements is more pronounced for the subsample of firms identified to have undertaken the more egregious fraudulent reporting than the subsample of firms that reported restatements to correct previous accounting errors. We also find that firms with severe restatements, measured based on announcement period market reactions, have lower externally financed growth. Overall, our evidence highlights the adverse impact of restatement on firm growth, particularly through external financing.     

中国上市公司年报重述公告效应研究

本文首次在细分年报重述类型的基础上,对我国上市公司年报重述的公告效应进行了较为系统的研究。以2004年1月1日至2007年12月31日之间发布年报补充或更正公告的691家上市公司为样本,实证发现,重述公告整体而言具有微弱的负面市场反应,但不同类型重述公告的市场反应各异,投资者关注重述公告的焦点在于重述是否影响公司价值判断。具体而言,更正公告、因会计问题导致的重述、重述内容涉及核心会计指标或调低了公司盈余、重述涉及多个会计年度以及重述消息是坏消息时,市场反应显著为负;极少数重述公告带来了好消息,市场反应显著为正。重述公告的市场价值相关性表明,进一步引导和规范上市公司的年报重述行为以保护投资者利益显得极为迫切。     

Does the response of competitors to privatization announcements reflect competitive or industry-wide information effects? International evidence

We examine the stock price reaction of rival firms to the announcement of the privatization of their industry counterparts to infer information about the intra-industry effects of privatization. We find that the rival firms reacted negatively to the privatization announcements, suggesting that the announcement effects reflect competitive rather than positive industry effects. The reaction is stronger for industry counterparts in low economic freedom countries than those in high economic freedom countries. Interestingly, we also find that full privatization announcements generate larger negative abnormal returns for rival firms than partial privatization announcements where the privatized firm gains only partial autonomy from the government. In this regard, we find that, as the proportion of government ownership reduces, subsequent partial privatization announcement elicits stronger market reaction from rival firms. The negative abnormal returns earned by shareholders of rival firms are not due to price pressure and portfolio rebalancing effects resulting from index composition changes. We conclude that the negative effects documented for the rival firms reflect investors' concern about the potential competitive effects resulting from privatization of the state enterprise.     

Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements

This paper investigates the information content of options trading prior to dividend change announcements. I find a positive (negative) relation between pre‐announcement abnormal implied volatility (IV) spread (abnormal IV skew) and cumulative abnormal stock returns around dividend change announcements. The predictive power of informed options trading is stronger for announcements of dividend reduction and when the options market is more liquid relative to the stock market and weaker when information has already been incorporated in the stock market. The predictability of informed options trading is robust to a placebo test and alternative measures of informed options trading. Overall results suggest that informed options trading predicts dividend change announcement returns.