外汇高顺差形势下外汇统计监测应对策略探讨

在当前外汇收支统计监测中，资本项目和经常项目外汇收支相互融合，离岸外汇收支混入在岸外汇收支，个人跨境外汇收支流动增势迅猛。要加强外汇统计监测，就要加快设计和构建外汇信息统计监测体系，加强统计监测，建立各类监测分析的快捷反应机制。     

Walter Mahlberg's Valuation Theory: An Anomaly in the Development of Inflation Accounting

Walter Mahlberg's inflation-accounting treatise of 1921, Bilanztechnik und Bewertung bei schwankender Währung , contains the first book-length price-level-adjustment model in the literature. As the title of the book indicates, Mahlberg treated the matter of restatement technique and the matter of asset valuation during inflation as distinct topics. Mahlberg's restatement technique was not without immediate influence in Germany and has been addressed previously in English-language publications. His valuation theory, on the other hand, had little effect on contemporary developments and remains an anomaly in the literature today. In particular, Mahlberg saw the effect of certain specific price-level changes—those whose rate of change exceeded general inflation—as giving rise to unavoidable future losses; losses, he maintained, that should be recognized currently. Since Mahlberg's theory is generally unknown outside Germany, the present paper first provides English-speaking audiences with an explication of the logic that led Mahlberg to his unique conclusion. It then argues that although Mahlberg's valuation theory represents a cul-de-sac in the development of inflation accounting itself, it ironically may have contributed to Henry Sweeney's 1936 concept of 'unrealized appreciation', which is an early conceptualization of a holding gain, net of inflation.     

全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战

[提要] 危机前的全球资产膨胀:在这次全球危机前,主要经济体金融资产膨胀的速度远快于GDP增长率. 金融发展越来越脱离实体经济:以美国为例,在各类金融工具(不含衍生品)中,为金融活动服务的比重不断上升,危机前已经达到了50%.     

外汇市场、股票市场及预期通货膨胀对货币需求的影响

本文利用2005年7月到2012年12月的月度数据,使用菲利普斯—奥肯曲线计算预期通货膨胀率,将汇率、股票市场以及预期通货膨胀率纳入货币需求函数模型,通过协整检验、VEC模型以及VAR模型,研究了汇率、股市以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响,结果发现汇率、股市收益率以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响具有统计显著性,但是影响程度很小。     

外汇储备增长与通货膨胀关系研究

在现行外汇体制下,外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间的关系是个值得探讨的问题。文章使用1998～2010年的月度数据,采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法分析外汇储备增长与通货膨胀的关系,得出：外汇储备增长对通货膨胀具有单向因果关系,外汇储备间接导致了通货膨胀。     

Accounting for Risk and Return in Equity Valuation

Standard valuation models forecast cash flows or earnings, add a growth rate, and discount the cash flows to their present value with a discount rate that typically reflects the cost of capital. But as the author argues, projecting the long‐term growth rate is essentially speculative; and along with uncertainty about the growth rate, analysts generally do not have a good grasp of the discount rate either. Thus, instead of reducing uncertainty, these two features effectively compound uncertainty in valuations in the sense that slight changes in the growth rate or discount rate can change the valuation considerably. In this article, the author proposes an alternative approach that views the investor's problem as one of challenging the speculations that are built into the current market price, particularly the speculation about growth. Rather than building in a speculative growth rate (and thereby treating it as if it were a certainty), the author's approach turns the problem on its head by using an accounting analysis of the firm's current earnings and cash flows that provides a basis for recognizing the speculative component of the current stock price. More specifically, the author's analysis identifies the future earnings growth path that is implied by the market price, which can then be evaluated with the question: Do I want to pay for this growth? Because growth expectations are risky, additional analysis can be used to provide an understanding of the risk and return to buying growth, and of the upside and downside if risk growth expectations are not realized. By taking such an approach, investors incorporate their understanding of risk not by increasing the discount rate, but by recognizing that the primary risk in investing is the risk of overpaying for growth.     

Accounting for Foreign Business

The currency translation problem is the same in kind as the inflation accounting problem. No demonstrable connection may be made between financial information and evaluation or choice unless the components of the information are derived uniformly in a dated setting. Proposals hitherto suffer in different degrees from heterotemporal aggregation and cross-temporal translation. By recourse to four examples of different relations between an investor company and foreign investees, an integral method is described for dealing with foreign transactions and investments, where prices and inflation rates are different and exchange rates may vary. The essence of the process is that the components of financial statements shall be made to correspond with their factual or factually based features from time to time.     

The Valuation of Sequential Exchange Opportunities

Sequential exchange opportunities are valued using the techniques of modern option-pricing theory. The vehicle for analysis is the concept of a compound exchange option. This security is shown to exist implicitly in several contractual settings. A valuation formula for this option is derived. The formula is shown to generalize much previous work in option pricing. Several applications of the formula are presented.     

浅析准则变化对资产评估业务开拓的影响

2008年后,我国新会计准则的实施范围扩大到了所有的中央国有企业。2008年7月1日后,资产评估准则中的7项新准则也正式实施。会计准则与评估准则的更新与我们的资产评估工作关系密切。本文将从开拓市场的需求出发,探讨准则中的几项重要变化对我们业务的影响。     

Terminal Value,Accounting Numbers,and Inflation

In a 2008 article published in this journal, Michael Bradley and Gregg Jarrell argue that the well‐known Gordon‐Shapiro (henceforth “GS”) model for calculating terminal values does not properly account for the effects of inflation. Bradley and Jarrell suggest modifying the growth factor in the standard GS model by adding an additional term to the nominal growth rate that reflects the positive effect of inflation on the value of existing assets. In this article, the authors support the original Gordon‐Shapiro method for calculating terminal values by showing what they believe to be an oversight of the Bradley‐Jarrell critique. According to the authors, the disagreement stems from the use of fundamentally different assumptions about the effect of inflation on the capital investment required to sustain a business. Although Bradley‐Jarrell agree with the authors that intrinsic value is the discounted value of future free cash flows, their assumptions about capital investment effectively lead them to conclusions similar to those practitioners who attempt to value companies on the basis of discounted future accounting earnings. Despite much common practice, the GS model was meant to be applied to free cash flows, not accounting earnings. And for companies with substantial capital investment, the differences between accounting earnings that involve accruals and free cash flows can be very large.     

跨境关联交易、外汇资金流动与外汇管理

跨境关联交易是涉及境内外关联方之间转移资源或义务的交易活动,它与外汇资金的流动密切相关,对一国的外汇管理具有不可忽视的影响。特别是在当前我国国际收支持续大幅双顺差、外汇储备不断增加的形势下,更需要高度关注跨境关联交易的各种风险。     

资产评估中的会计困境及其对策

资产评估实务中,评估人员须依赖企业的财务报表作为一种主要分析资料.特别是在持续经营假设前提下的企业价值评估中,对资产的重置成本、资产的预期收益以及预期风险的测算更离不开企业当前财务会计数据的支持.但是因会计与资产评估的业务性质及其在经济工作中的地位和作用的不同,二者在目标定位、计价原则等方面有着本质的区别,由此导致评估人员在评估资产尤其是对企业进行整体价值评估时,使用会计数据时面临着诸多困境.此外,由于存在着失真的会计信息,以及对于相同的交易与事项有时采取的是不同的会计处理方法,因此,资产评估人员必须能够识别会计信息,并对会计处理的结果进行适当的调整.     

Accounting Earnings Processes,Inter-temporal Incentives and Their Implications for Valuation

Accounting measures such as levels and changes in residual earnings are widely used for performance evaluation and executive compensation (Healy, 1985). Quite often, these compensation contracts are of the linear form. In a multiperiod agency setting with hidden actions, where the agent's effort influences the random evolution of a general model of residual earnings, we show that linear compensation contracts based on weighted sum of the levels and changes of residual earnings are indeed optimal. We characterize the contract explicitly and show that the weights are determined by the earnings persistence parameter. Residual earnings are known to be important for valuation too (Ohlson, 1995; Easton and Harris, 1991). In our setting, we demonstrate that residual earnings are also sufficient for valuation. This implies that residual earnings can be used to align incentive goals with valuation objectives. In essence, our paper provides the theoretical underpinnings for linear contracts based on residual earnings and their implications for valuation.     

资产评估增值的会计和所得税处理

随着经济体制改革的不断深化,资产评估工作作为改革过程中的重要环节,越来越多地被社会各界所关注.人们不但关注评估的过程是否合规、评估价值是否合理,还关注资产评估所引起的其他一系列问题,如资产评估增值的会计处理与税赋处理.     

外汇储备、CPI与汇率的多尺度影响分析

论文首先运用db2小波对取对数后的数据分3层进行降噪,然后建立外汇储备、汇率以及CPI的VEC模型,并在VEC模型估计的基础上,使用脉冲响应和方差分解对他们的动态关系进行实证分析。结果表明,我国外汇储备与汇率之间不仅存在因果关系,还存在长期的协整关系;CPI与外汇储备之间不仅存在协整关系而且变动方向保持一致,外汇储备规模的快速增长对CPI上涨也产生一定的影响;汇率的变动对CPI也有一定的影响,但影响力度较小。     

Accounting and Valuation: How Helpful Are Recent Accounting Rule Changes?

The longstanding debate over the proper definition of “earnings”—whether investors when setting stock prices focus primarily on GAAP earnings or other measures like operating cash flow—is both misguided and theoretically unresolvable. The biggest problem faced by investors in evaluating earnings reports is not their inability to understand the effects of the different accounting methods companies use when aggregating accounting line items into reported net income. More challenging, and more critical to the investment process, is getting complete and reliable information about the line items themselves. The authors' underlying premise is that investors, when provided sufficient information about these “components” of earnings, can combine or reconfigure them in whatever way they find most useful. But without sufficient and reliable information about the individual line items, investors will find it difficult to understand how earnings are generated and thus to produce the forecast of future earnings necessary to value a company. In the past few years, there have been significant rule changes in accounting for employee options, derivatives, and special purposes entities. The authors evaluate the extent to which the new rules encourage disclosures that are helpful from a valuation perspective. Although there has been some progress, financial reporting in each of the three areas continues to fall well short of providing the complete, disaggregated data required to value a firm with confidence.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.