浅谈服务等待

排队等待现象在当今服务业中已成为一个焦点问题,各服务行业纷纷提出改革措施对此进行整顿,以减少消费者的等待时间并达到顾客满意的目的。本文从理论角度,通过分析国外学者已有的相关研究成果,指出我国学术界对此问题的研究建议,以期对服务等待管理具有指导和借鉴意义。     

Semivariance of Property Value Estimates as a Determinant of Default Risk

Standard practice in the residential mortgage underwriting industry is to estimate collateral values via independent appraisals conducted by third parties. This paper empirically examines the role of property value ( i.e. , appraisal) uncertainty as a determinant of default on residential mortgage loans. Based upon an analysis of 1,428 residential loans drawn from the portfolio of a national mortgage lender, we find evidence that semivariance in property value uncertainty is related to default risk. Specifically, subject properties that are valued above the sales price of recently sold "similar and proximate" properties show evidence of greater default risk. Interestingly, a variance (range) measure of property value uncertainty is not significantly related to default risk.     

Batik Industry Waiting to Bloom by Innovation

The wax-dyeing technique is thought to be over a thousand years old.Companies from Dutch,UK and Nigeria dominated real batik markets before the year 2000 and China’s     

The Cost of Foreclosure Delay

We measure the cost of foreclosure delay by estimating time‐related foreclosure costs using a large national sample of residential mortgages before, during, and after the recent U.S. housing crisis. The large volume of foreclosures, coupled with an unprecedented series of government interventions in mortgage servicing practices, significantly extended foreclosure timelines during and after the crisis.  Costs were especially pronounced in judicial review states, which saw average foreclosure costs go up 15 percentage points, 24 percentage points in the highest cost state.  Cost increases of this magnitude are likely to have consequences for servicing practices and mortgage credit availability.     

机械故障信号中的边带特征及识别

本文以滚动轴承为例,阐述了机械部件在运行过程中出现故障信号的边带现象,并初步分析了故障信号边带现象产生的原因。介绍了一种识别边带信号的方法——倒频谱分析技术。     

Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market

A mortgage pricing model is developed when a borrower goes through a series of distress states, including delinquency, long-term nonpayment and ultimate default. These steps are sequential, and depend on prices and alternatives faced by the borrower. The multistate default model is applied to the mortgage market in the United Kingdom. As a byproduct, a pricing structure for the U.K. endowment mortgage, which combines a good and a life insurance policy, is developed. Income and liquidity constraints are shown to affect the decision to keep a mortgage current in different states of distress. Solvent borrowers may thus keep their mortgages current, even when equity is negative.     

Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach

This paper uses an extensive and geographically dispersed sample of single-family fixed rate mortgages to assess the prepayment and default behavior of individual homeowners. We make use of Poisson regression to efficiently estimate the parameters of a proportional hazards model for prepayment and default decisions. Poisson regression for grouped survival data has several advantages over partial likelihood methods. First, when dealing with time-dependent covar-iates, it is considerably more efficient in terms of computations. Second, it is possible to estimate full-hazard models which include, for example, functions of time as well as multiple time scales (i.e., age of the loan and calendar time), in a much more straightforward manner than partial likelihood methods for un-grouped data. Third, Poisson regression can be used to estimate non-proportional hazards models such as additive excess risk specifications. Taken together, our data and estimation methodology allow us to obtain a better understanding of the economic factors underlying prepayment and default decisions.     

A Note on Mortgage Risk: Default vs. Loss Rates

This note reexamines the role of the loan-to-value ratio on mortgage risk. Whereas previous studies have focused on the default rate as a function of this term, this study considers the additional effect on the loss rate of defaulted loans. Because the dollar loss per amount originated is the product of the default rate and the loss rate on defaulted loans, the impact of the loan-to-value ratio on both the default and loss rates is crucial to explaining the impact of the loan-to-value ratio on mortgage risk. I find that both rates are significantly positively related to loan-to-value ratio and that the loss rate accounts for between 13% and 20% of total loan-to-value impact.     

Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research

This paper is the text of the 1992 Presidential Address for the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. A comparative evaluation of mortgage default research finds that both the residential and commercial markets evolved from informal underwriting rules, to formalized (though unvalidated) ratios and rules of thumb, to early risk ratings based upon empirical evidence, to gener-alizable econometric models of default, to option-based pricing models. The commercial market lagged the residential market by about 10 to 20 years at first but is now only about five years behind. The survey finds that research and progress in understanding mortgage credit risk has been precipitated by a public policy need or mandate, data availability, and adequate technology. The absence of any one of these factors has hindered progress in the past. Finally, six emerging issues in default research are identified and discussed: (1) the degree of "ruth-lessness" with which default is exercised, (2) loan recourse, (3) the magnitude and timing of revenues and losses associated with default, (4) loan modification, (5) default in a portfolio context, and (6) leasehold default. Progress in these areas will enhance the efficiency of both the residential and commercial markets.     

基于模块化的银行卡产业价值创新研究：从价值链到价值群

以往关于模块化的应用研究主要集中于制造业,本文是模块化理论在金融服务业应用研究的一次尝试。本文认为,银行卡产业模块化的价值创新机理就在于实现了从价值链向价值群的价值创新系统转变。我国银行卡产业模块化价值创新应该从三个方面着手:一是在产品模块化创新层面,着重银行卡产品设计规则参与、产品创新和服务标准化;二是在企业模块化再造层面,着重银行卡业务组件模块化和组织管理模块化;三是在生产网络模块化层面,着重外包策略和网络联盟在实现模块价值创新中的重要作用。     

The Value of Federal Sponsorship: The Case of Freddie Mac

The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 attempts to limit the risk borne by the taxpayer due to federal sponsorship of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) and the Federal National Mortgage Association by: (1) controlling their range of activities; (2) requiring a level of capital sufficient to absorb substantial losses; and (3) providing a mechanism for closure if capital is insufficient. This article estimates the impact of the capital standards on the value to the FHLMC of federal sponsorship. Although FHLMC's level of capital exceeds requirements, the federal government still bears a nontrivial portion of the FHLMC's risk.     

The Value of Liquidity

In this study, we examine the relationship between the liquidity of equity and its market value. We find that creating liquid equity claims on relatively illiquid property assets increases value by 12–22%. However, the fixed costs associated with creating these claims offset these liquidity gains for pools of assets below $100 million. We also estimate that the liquidity of individual properties adds 16% to their value relative to a notional nontradable property asset. Managers can enhance the liquidity of equity and, therefore, the benefits of securitization by increasing size, focus, and institutional ownership.     

浅析电费欠费原因及对策

对拖欠电费产生的原因以及防范和降低拖欠电费发生的对策进行了分析。     

基于最小期望损失的供应链供货违约等级识别模型

本文全面研究了引起供应链供货违约的各种原因,从供应商自身因素、客户需求、双方信息集成以及供货渠道中的意外义素4个维度构建了一套供应链供货违约二级指标体系,用先进的模式识别技术定量解决了供货违约严重程度识别的问题。先用主成分分析法降低了指标维度,接着用多维正态分布分类模型衡量了每种违约等级发生的后验概率,最后在合理构造损失矩阵的基础计算出每种决策产生的期望风险,并依此做出违约等级的识别决策。通过实例计算表明该方法是可行的,识别结果具有一定的客观性。     

石油储量价值评估的勘探成本途径

依据马克思成本价格理论，利用价值分级技术描述石油储量单元的级差收益，建立了石油储量价值评估的勘探成本模型。该模型以一定时期勘探投资的平均储量成本及适当的成本利润为基础，以一定范围内最优和最劣资源的生产成本差异为最大级差收益尺度，合理地描述了石油储量的不同开采难度带来的不同收益差别，并以长庆油田为例．对该模型的性能进行了测算分析。     

内衣产品本身对附加值的影响探讨

在现代商品社会中,附加值是理性厂商在可行的条件下竞相追逐的目标。影响内衣产品附加值的因素很多,其中一个重要因素是生产出的内衣产品有吸引力。内衣的面料、款式、色彩和工艺都不同程度地影响内衣产品的档次,针对不同的消费者设计出适销对路的产品,是获得高附加值的关键。     

解决交通延误的一种可能途径

为了解决日益严重的交通拥挤、环境恶化等问题,大家努力改进交通基础设施、提高燃料燃烧效率、推广使用清洁能源的同时,往往忽略了对交通工程中某些物理结构的调整。本文提出了将停车线后退的观点。笔者根据运动学知识提出h=v2/(2a),除此之外,文中引入"弹性"概念,实现了对车辆运行速度的控制,为提高车辆运行速度提供了1条方案,该方案在理论上是可行的。     

The Value of Building Codes

We present a double moral hazard model to study the impact of building codes on the safety/quality level chosen by the builder and the level of care expended by the buyer. We show that codes can be a mechanism to implement the first-best solution provided: (1) The code prescribes the optimum safety level, (2) The code uses the efficient technology to achieve the optimum safety level, and (3) The courts use Negligence Rule as the liability rule. We argue, however, that codes in general do not use the efficient technology. We provide an alternative mechanism to implement the first-best solution. This mechanism is a contract between the builder and the buyer that specifies the level of safety jquality to be expended by the builder. We prove that the contract is a more effective and more efficient mechanism than are the building codes.     

价值工程在油田开发工程造价管理中的应用

结合实际就采油厂在油田开发工程造价管理中价值工程的原理进行了阐述,并结合实际案例就价值工程在油田开发工程造价管理设计阶段、施工阶段、招投标阶段的应用进行了分析。通过开展价值工程活动,对提高采油厂油田开发工程的总体效益,降低开发工程寿命周期成本起到积极作用。     

It Pays to Value Family: Work and Family Tradeoffs Reconsidered

We use longitudinal data to assess whether individuals who place greater importance on marriage and family pay a price for that priority in subsequent labor market success. Males placing a high priority on family before entering the labor market earn more, contrary to behavioral research but consistent with the economics literature. More important, females who place a high priority on family do not suffer in terms of subsequent earnings, contrary to most previous research.