The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe: The case of Poland

This paper studies the impact of the recent weakening of Poland's fully funded defined contribution second pension pillar on (i) the long-term sustainability (the deficit and implicit debt) of the full pension system and (ii) the implications for pension benefits (gross replacement rates). Simulation results, based on a stylised version of the Polish pension system, show that, in the baseline scenario, the weakening of the second pillar would permanently lower future pension system debt, chiefly as a result of a cut in replacement rates. But using a combination of pessimistic assumptions including strong population ageing, low real wage growth and an indexation of existing pension benefits on nominal wage growth rather than inflation coupled with bringing in tax expenditures related to the third voluntary pension pillar and an increase in the share of minimum pensioners leads to higher pension system deficits and eventually more public debt at a very long horizon. The simulation results also suggest that if Poland had not transformed its pay-as-you-go first pension pillar into a defined contribution from a defined benefit system, the weakening of the second pillar would deteriorate fiscal sustainability relatively quickly in the baseline scenario. This result suggests that the Hungarian pension reversal would reduce deficit and debt only temporarily, mainly because of Hungary's costly defined benefit first pension pillar: the weakening of the second pillar is tantamount to swapping low current replacement rates (in the defined contribution second pillar) against high future replacement rates in the defined benefit first pension pillar.     

Screening and valuing venture capital investments: evidence from Hungary,Poland and Slovakia

This paper examines the screening and valuation approaches used by venture capital firms in emerging markets using evidence from surveys of venture capital firms in Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The results show notable differences in the state of development and operation of the venture capital markets both between the three countries and in comparison with the developed UK venture capital market, especially in relation to the degree of equity ownership sought by venture capitalists, the information used in deal screening and valuation methods.     

Which Central and Eastern European country has the greatest potential for housing market recovery？

This paper is concentrated on analyzing the CEE （Central and Eastern European） countries housing and lending market development in 2002-2009. These countries experienced real estate boom and bust phases during that time and the aim of this paper is to understand which of these countries have the greatest potential for housing market recovery. The study has conducted comparable analysis of these countries and their real estate and lending market. The data was collected from central banks, national statistic offices and real estate companies. The results suggest that countries with higher housing debt had stronger real estate booms and the current bust-cycle has caused much steeper decline in prices. This paper attempts to look at the CEE housing markets from the developer＇s or investor＇s point of view and may be useful for banks and other financial institutions which are related to housing market and lending.     

Should the Central and Eastern European Accession Countries Adopt the EURO Before or After Accession?

I analyse the option of unilateral euroisation for Central and Eastern Europe. The thorny questions of losing seigniorage and losing the lender of last resort are explicitly addressed. It is found that the option of unilateral euroisation might be quite inviting for some countries. This is certainly the case if one takes into account the difficulties thrown up by the Maastricht–criteria. It is argued that unilateral euroisation provides an elegant way out of the catch of the official EMU-accession path. The EU has, however, expressed explicitly its enmity against euroisation. I think this is a policy error. It should be at least a genuine policy option for all countries concerned. At best the EU should stimulate euroisation by embedding it in a broader and more embracing framework that would support integration and ultimately accession to the EU of the whole of Central and Eastern Europe.     

Measures to tame credit growth: Are they effective?

This paper focuses on policy measures taken to curb bank credit growth in the private sector in the pre-crisis period 2003–2007. Our analysis is based on an original survey conducted in 2010 on eleven central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The findings reveal substantial policy intervention: a total of 82 measures were implemented in CEE during the period considered. The paper presents a panel data analysis of the effectiveness of the policy measures adopted in the region. The overall results indicate that certain measures – particularly asset classification and provisioning rules and loan eligibility criteria – might have been effective in taming bank credit growth, especially if applied in the context of more general policy measures featuring a combination of various instruments. However, in countries in which the authorities managed to somewhat decrease the flows of bank credit into the economy, the measures were often circumvented via direct, cross-border credit from foreign banks and credit provided by domestic, non-bank financial companies.     

Motives and Modes of FDI,Firm Characteristics and Performance

Abstract

In this exploratory study, die autfiors attempt to determine and interpret die interdependencies between die motives and modes of setting up subsidiaries by foreign investors in Poland, and the main characteristics and performance of these subsidiaries. Two modes of setting up a subsidiary are examined: green-field and acquisition. The audiors use data collected from seven foreign subsidiaries operating in Poland and apply within-case and cross-case analytical approach to identify and interpret relationships between die variables under consideration. The results of the study lead to a formulation of eight hypotheses requiring further testing and research.     

Managerial markets in transition in Central and Eastern Europe: a field study and implications

In this paper, we report findings from the first comprehensive study of managerial labour markets in Central and Eastern Europe, drawing on field data from 157 firms in six countries. Results indicated widespread and deep changes occurring in the region’s managerial markets. Despite differences among countries in reform and economic performance, we found these particular changes to be surprisingly common across the countries studied. They included rapid rises in salary and benefit levels, narrowing of some skill gaps, shifts to more sophisticated methods of recruitment and an overall move towards Western management practices. The study also revealed severe shortages of qualified managers in all the countries studied. The resulting tightness in the managerial labour markets was reducing only modestly, despite other improvements. Foreign and joint-venture firms were relying disproportionately on expatriate managers, and may not have been sufficiently developing locals. We argue that, partly because of this, the distortions in pay, promotions and performance resulting from these tight markets are likely to persist for some time.     

Stretching the Border: Shopping,Petty Trade and Everyday Life Experiences in the Polish–Ukrainian Borderland

This article examines the practices and experiences of Ukrainian border crossers who are engaged in informal small-scale economic practices, namely shopping and petty trade, at the Medyka border crossing in Poland. By examining the societal, network and territorial embeddedness of the economic activities of these border crossers, we aim to shed light on the practices and experiences that form part of their daily lives. For many, the presence of the state border has become a resource for shopping and petty trade. People share a common purpose of making the most of their border crossing; they work together to plan and coordinate, or improvise and semi-plan, in the borderland and beyond, to supplement their income or to make a living. As a result, daily life for these border crossers occurs on both sides of the state border, ‘stretching’ the border in both a mental and a physical sense, despite the controlled institutional demarcation between Poland and Ukraine.