The long memory model of political support: some further results

This article extends the results of Byers et al. (1997 Byers, JD, Davidson, JEHD and Peel, DA. 1997. Modelling political popularity: an analysis of long range dependence in opinion poll series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 160: 471–90. Series A [Google Scholar]) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,?d,?0) model, though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s had no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.     

The contribution of equalization transfers to fiscal adjustment: Empirical results for German municipalities and a US–German comparison

This paper considers the role of fiscal equalization in maintaining fiscal balance. It employs a large panel of German municipalities in order to investigate the dynamic fiscal policy adjustment using a vector-error–correction model that explicitly takes account of the intertemporal budget constraint. The results confirm that a substantial part of fiscal adjustment to revenue shocks takes place by offsetting changes in intergovernmental transfers: in present-value terms about 34 cents of a permanent 1 € decrease in own revenues are compensated by subsequent changes in fiscal-equalization transfers. Hence, the contribution of intergovernmental transfers in maintaining fiscal balance is found to be two to three times larger than in the case of US municipalities investigated by Buettner and Wildasin [Buettner, T., Wildasin, D.E., 2006. The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment. Journal of Public Economics 90, 1115–1132]. Despite fiscal equalization, however, expenditures are not found to display smaller fluctuations in the German case.     

The determinants of the vote for Trump: an analysis of Texas 2016 primary results

This article analyses the 2016 primary vote for Donald Trump in Texas. Much of Trump’s campaign rhetoric has been anti-immigrant. A major Trump campaign theme was his proposal to build a wall along the Mexico-U.S. border and make Mexico pay for it (Trump 2016). The econometric model estimated below uses county-level data for Texas. The dependent variable is the percent of the 2016 republican primary vote for Mr Trump. The model examines the electoral effects of Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric in a heavily Hispanic border state.     

Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata

This is one of the first studies to estimate a popularity function at the microlevel. Using German microlevel data for the years 1991, 1992, 1998, and 2008, we show that a positive assessment of the economy significantly improves government popularity, while negative evaluations decrease satisfaction with the government. Voters take the (current and expected) national and personal economic situation into account. We find no evidence for a grievance asymmetry, i.e., voters not only punish the government for a bad economy but also reward them in good times. Finally, we show that popularity functions are only very crude proxies for vote functions, with the latter being mostly driven by party identification.     

The use of trading strategies by fund managers: some first survey evidence

A questionnaire survey has found that most fund managers rely on the strategies of buy-&-hold, momentum and contrarian trading. These strategies are typically applied mutually. Their use is rooted in the attributes and beliefs of the respective fund managers: buy-&-hold traders are fundamentally oriented, risk averse and are less (over)confident than others. Momentum traders appear as the least risk-averse professionals, going aggressively with the trend. Contrarian traders, however, show signs of overconfidence and peculiar risk aversion, both indicating difficulties in successful strategy implementation. The behavioural patterns revealed are not easily reconciled with efficient markets.     

The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion and patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data suggest a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.     

Deregulation and the determinants of network access: evidence from the German interurban bus industry

We investigate the characteristics of cities gaining access to the German interurban bus network in the first two years following the deregulation of the industry in January 2013. Applying both parametric and semi-parametric survival models, we find strong evidence that the probability of a city to be added to a provider’s network increases not only with the mere size of its population but also with further demographic characteristics such as average income or the share of young and old inhabitants. Additionally, while an increasing importance of tourism has a further positive effect, a rising automobile density is imposing a significantly negative impact on the probability of a city to gain access to the network.     

Modelling the determinants of trans-Tasman migration after World War II

"This paper identifies the economic and demographic factors responsible for migration flows between Australia and New Zealand by means of a probabilistic model of emigration in both directions. The largely uncontrolled flows between the two countries have the same determinants as those commonly found in studies of internal migration. The cost of migration (proxied by the real cost of air travel), labour market conditions and the potential earnings differential play a role, although the results are modified by the incidence of return migration and age composition."     

Family labour supply: some empirical results from agriculture

The family is often taken as the decision-making unit in utility maximizing theories of labour supply. At a simple level, the family is composed of two elements, dependents and workers. This paper seeks to quantify the influence of these two elements on family labour supply in agriculture. Family farms are particularly suited to such analysis since institutional rigidities, like the fixed working week, are absent. Econometric methods are used on data from farms in the north-west of england for the year 1976/7. The cross-sectional study uses single equation methods. The results show that only family composition determines the labour supply of the farm family: they can then be used to quantify the effects of individual groups of dependents and workers on family labour supply.     

Time series explanations of merger activity: some econometric results

Existing papers which have attempted to test explanations of time series patterns in merger behaviour suffer from the defects that, first, they usually consider only one hypothesis and, secondly, none use a moderm econometric methodology. Consequently, their results may be subject to the spurious correlation problem. In this paper we argue that four well-known approaches to explaining time series data in acquisitions (Gort's disturbance theory, King's Trapped Equity model, disequilibrium hypotheses and ad hoc approaches) can all be nested within a capital budgeting decision-making framework. Using a co-integration methodology, a long-run relationship was found between the quarterly number of acquisitions and the growth rate of GDP, Tobin's Q, the balance of payments, the unemployment rate and share prices. Some of the previously proposed theories were found to explain the short-run dynamic variation in acquisition activity. No support was found for Gort's disturbance theory or for King's Trapped Equity model. Conclusions for antitrust policy are suggested.     

The implications of a third-order translog demand system and some empirical results

In this paper a homogeneity and symmetry unconstrained variant of the “third-order translog”, representing a third-order approximation to an indirect utility function, is derived. Using Christensen, Jorgenson and Lau's (1975) data, and subsequent observations to 1986, we estimate this third-order translog, and show that it dominates the homogeneity and symmetry unconstrained translog. The restrictions implied by homogeneity and symmetry, conditional on our third-order translog are also rejected. These results are of interest since they demonstrate that standard restrictions implied by the theory of consumer behaviour can be rejected even in the context of a fairly general model which has been estimated using aggregate, time-series data. However, it has been found that the inclusion of dynamic effects sometimes leads to non-rejection of theoretical restrictions (Anderson and Blundell 1983). Unfortunately, the use of aggregate, time-series data to estimate a dynamic, third-order translog would be problematic, since exact aggregation restrictions are imposeda priori and observations are limited. This suggests that it would be more appropriate to estimate the third-order translog using cross-sectional micro-data sets with many observations. This type of data is now available, and can be used to estimate systems of consumer demands. Furthermore, these data sets contain extensive information on demographic characteristics which, having recently been found to be important determinants of demand (Barnes and Gillingham 1984) can be included in general demand systems of the third-order translog type.     

Revenue raising trade-restricting policies under uncertainty: The sub-optimality of the expected welfare criterion and some safety-first results

The analysis of trade-restricting policies under uncertainty has typically argued in favour of the specific tariff over alternative commercial policies such as the ad valorem tariff and the quota, when the raising of revenue and maintenance of consumer's welfare are the policy objectives. This paper reconsiders this result. It is demonstrated that, when the shape of the welfare probability distribution is considered explicitly, the quota may be the dominant trade-restricting policy. In addition, the analysis of trade-restricting instruments is analysed for the case where the principle of safety-first is applied to the revenue-raising objective.We should like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

The determinants of coupon usage

This paper uses a large sample of survey data to investigate the empirical determinants of coupon usage. The broad set of control variables allows for comparisons of the relative importance of individual determinants and groups of determinants. We find that the set of variables measuring consumer shopping habits and attitudes explains more of the variation in coupon usage across households than the group of socioeconomic and demographic variables. However, the latter variables are jointly significant, and their estimated coefficients have the expected signs.     

The determinants of female recruitment

Each year the net effect of transitions between jobs, and between employment and non-employment is that there has been a steady rise in the proportion of women and part-timers in employment in Britain. the determinants of one particular transition, namely recruitment, are analysed using 1983 data, in the light of existing theories about female employment. The conclusions are that recruitment of women and part-timers is promoted by the expansion of those occupations in which women are traditionally more concentrated, by their low pay and conditions in relation to men, and by the greater availability of married women for recruitment. The buffer mechanism, wherein firms are hypothesized to hire more female labour when unemployment is low and to hoard male labour in recessions, finds no empirical support.     

The determinants of marital happiness

This study contributes to the literature by providing an empirical analysis of the determinants of marital and general happiness. The empirical analysis is conducted using US data from the General Social Survey (GSS) and an Ordered Probit Model. We also attempt to overcome the endogeneity problem between marital happiness and infidelity using a recursive bivariate probit model. One of the advances of this study is to show that the determinants of marital happiness differ between men and women in interesting ways. While infidelity has similar effects for both sexes, we find that women have a detectable preference for a traditional division of labour within the household. In addition, social class, religion, age, children and income have differential effects between men and women. In particular, for marital happiness we find diminishing returns from household income for women and satiation for men. Hence, we find that most of the existing literature has left hidden important differences in the determinants of marital happiness between men and women.     

The Riddle of German Self-Interest北大核心CSSCISSCI

How will the crises inside the euro-zone end?Many people have asked me this question in the US in recent weeks.How,in particular,might the eurozone move from crisis into stability     

东部新跨越的现实障碍与战略选择

东部经济目前面临产业过度竞争、缺乏核心竞争力、资源环境成本上升及国内外经济环境变化所面临的危机。实现东部新跨越势在必行,关键在于转变经济增长方式和增强自主创新能力。当前政府行为非规范、传统观念以及体制机制等方面的问题构成集约式增长和自主创新的障碍。其关键在于解决依赖于模仿、缺乏知识产权保护、同质化竞争等导致自主创新动力不强的种种问题。本文提出了东部经济要确立发展智力经济、以倒逼机制促进自主创新和推动产业转移等方面的对策建议。