“Every today was a tomorrow”: An integral method for indexing the social mediation of preferred futures

The visions we hold of the future, whether they are of utopias or dystopias, are not simply a matter of personal imagination. Our conceptions of the future are mediated to us as much as they are privately created by us. To this point, futures studies have not developed an integrative and broad-based framework for considering the social mediation of futures. Understanding how social mediation impacts on our futures visioning requires an interpretive framework that can cope with the multilayered nature of futures visions, the worldviews that are associated with them and a theory of mediation that can be applied within such a context of ‘depth’. Using theory-building methodology, the current paper attempts this task by describing a theory of social mediation that builds on the integral futures framework. An application of the framework explores the relationship between various scenarios of health care futures, their associated worldviews and the mediational factors that influence our visions of future health care systems.     

Comparing system visions of farmers and experts

The goal of this paper is to identify farmers’ future in terms of the pesticide management of potato growing farmers in Vereda la Hoya (Boyacá, Colombia).To achieve this goal we applied the Future-Structured Mental Model Approach (Future-SMMA) and interviewed 10 farmers concerning their future perspectives and expectations to derive their future visions. Subsequently, 10 experts were interviewed about the feasibility and the consequences of farmers’ future visions.Applying the Future-SMMA, we analyzed farmers’ future visions and found that farmers take account of social and environmental threats and that their visions are optimistic. In addition we compared farmers’ and experts’ perceptions of external constraints on farmers’ future and discovered that the future visions of farmers and experts were inconsistent. Finally, we determined how farmers’ livelihood assets and self-perception influence the formation of farmers’ future visions and found that the more a person was able to differentiate his livelihood assets the more differentiated were the future visions of that person.In discussing our findings, we deduce that the inconsistency of future visions found is due to diverging attitudes towards future scenarios and differing opinions about who should take responsibility for the knowledge management of farmers.     

Anticipating the future: ‘Biotechnology for the poor’ as unrealized promise?

This article analyses visions of the future articulated by proponents of ‘biotechnology for the poor’, those who claim that an embrace of transgenic technology in agriculture is critical to alleviating poverty in developing countries. Specifically, we analyse how such ‘biotechnology for the poor’ proponents represent a future with or without transgenic crops. Such representations include visions of a beckoning (promising) future, where much is to be gained from an embrace of transgenic technology in agriculture, and an onrushing (threatening) future, where much will be lost if the technology is not embraced. The article shows that claims about a beckoning or onrushing future by ‘biotechnology for the poor’ proponents are based upon unexamined or problematic assumptions about the poor and poverty. As such, poverty becomes merely a moral backdrop against which visions of a future are articulated. Furthermore, ‘biotechnology for the poor’ writings do not engage in dialogue with alternative voices in articulating their perspectives on the future, losing a key opportunity to democratize debate about this crucial issue. We conclude by considering the policy consequences (in regulatory and institutional terms) of ‘biotechnology for the poor’ depictions of the future, particularly for the global South where such consequences will be felt.     

China's search for the future: A genealogical approach

This paper is a dialectical inquiry, presenting a genealogy of, China futures discourses and visions from ancient times through to the, present. It uses both structural and macrohistorical based approaches. The identified worldviews are placed in their broader historical, epistemes; asked why change has occurred, how it fits within patterns of, history and what kind of futures are offered. It is unique in that I use, the futures triangle methodology to discuss the “pulls” of the future in, each historical era with the corresponding “pushes” of the present and, “weights” of the past. The article concludes with a theory of futures in, Chinese history and looks at which philosophies are likely to play a role, in the possible futures of China. The aim is to highlight which visions, and images have been victorious is affecting the present and influencing, the future.     

Back to the futures: Retrospecting the prospects of smart grid technology

This paper analyzes a ten-year long technology debate, which dealt with the so-called advanced electricity meters in Norway (1998–2008). The debate circled around one central question: should the implementation of this technology be forced through with regulations or should the market decide on pace and character of implementation? In 2008 it was decided that it was best to regulate the implementation. Throughout these 10 years, the debate largely concerned how the future would look with or without regulation. This paper is inspired by “the sociology of expectation”, which assumes that futures are performative. This means that when the future is evoked or imagined, it influences present action and navigation. With this in mind, the paper analyzes future visions and expectations as they were formulated in the technology debate, and traces the role of these futures in the policy debate and for the policy outcome. The paper identifies two modes of future performativity: translative and transformative futures. Translative futures are often mobilized as spokespersons for desired technology or policy trajectories. Here, they work as (a) stagestting devices: sparking debate, enrolling new actors in the debate and generating interest. Further, they work as (b) regulative tools: establishing the need for political decisions, either to realize the content of future visions, or to avoid the contents of alternative futures. Transformative futures do more subtle and gradual work, shifting the practical, symbolic and cognitive meaning of “what” the technology in question might become in the future. As an example, the significance of the advanced electricity meters discussed in this paper changed from being a device filling the knowledge gaps of electricity consumers, to being a central hub in households delivering a range of potential services and being available for a number of different users. In this paper, I describe the gradual shift in understanding of what advanced electricity meters could be as a virtual domestication trajectory.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

This paper builds on Part I, where three European and Mediterranean scenarios were introduced. Theses scenarios can be typified as qualitative, integrated narrative storylines that describe three possible directions of future change until 2030. The main purpose of the paper is to summarise the methods and results of a series of stakeholder workshops held in the Guadalentín (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions. Two workshops were organised in both watersheds, employing different methods to develop short-term and long-term future outlooks. During the first workshop an exploratory forecasting methodology was employed. By means of a collage of images, stakeholders constructed three future images linked to three Mediterranean scenarios. In the second workshop, a discussion on the short-term outlook based on current trends was followed by a backcasting exercise. The various methods yielded highly complementary results, with detailed short-term developments, rather general yet highly creative visions of the long-term future, and a set of desirable futures. It is argued that such a mix of methods has increased the quality and comprehensiveness of the results. In any case, these efforts should be but the onset of long-term stakeholder participation.     

Is your vision consistent?: A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency.     

Re-thinking the future of work: Beyond binary hierarchies

How will work be organised in the future? This paper reveals that although there are multiple stories about the future of work, a similar storyline is adopted across many of the competing visions. Most visions firstly squeeze all forms of work into one side or the other or some dichotomy and then proceed to temporally and/or normatively sequence the two sides of the dualism and finally label the resultant one-dimensional and linear trajectory as some -ism, -ation or post-something-or-other. This paper evaluates critically such hierarchical binary narratives (e.g., the shift from informal to formal work, non-commodified to commodified work, localisation to globalisation, Fordism to post-Fordism, bureaucracy to post-bureaucracy) and displays how these dominant narratives, as well as the counter narratives that simply invert the temporal and/or hierarchical sequencing of these dichotomies, over-simplify lived practice. The paper concludes by offering a way forward that transcends these one-dimensional linear tales and recognises the heterogeneous and multiple directions of work in order to provide a more kaleidoscope-like understanding of the direction of work and open up the future of work to new possibilities.     

Learning from young people’s image of the future: a case study in Taiwan and the US

An image of the future that an individual holds determines what attitude he/she holds towards the future and how he/she behaves in the present. These in turn would increase the probability to make the image realized as imagined in the future. As young people will be the builders of a society in the future, investigating their images of the future has significant implications for the future. With a survey of two groups of university students in Taiwan and the U.S., this study looked into various aspects of images, explored message sources influencing the formation of the images, identified values embedded in the images, and explored the relationship between the images and the students’ understanding of the present.     

Utopian and dystopian thought in climate change science and policy

Climate change policies are increasingly seen as integral to sustainable development policies. This article examines how visions of future society have been employed in climate science and multilateral negotiations. Using elements of utopian and dystopian thought, we have categorized UNFCCC documents, IPCC assessments, and special reports and peer-reviewed climate policy articles. Our results indicate that utopian thinking surfaces with reference to sustainable development and emissions scenarios. Such visions of future society fall into three categories: projections, dystopian thought, and utopian thought. Dystopian thought is mainly evident in the rhetoric of various actors, and is used to spur action or inaction, to avoid either economic catastrophe by acting too fast or ecological catastrophe by not acting fast enough. Utopian elements in climate change science and policy refer to decoupling greenhouse gases and economic growth, evenly distributing the benefits of economic globalization, and smoothing technological development. The present piecemeal invocation of sustainable development concepts in climate science and policy emphasizes the difficulties of integrating environmental, social, and economic concerns. The article concludes that utopian thinking regarding sustainable development could result in more integrated and holistic visions of future society in climate science and policy.     

The two visions of post-industrial society

The author discusses and contrasts two different usages of the phrase “post-industrial society”. The independent development of these two usages has culminated in the present distinction between post-industrial society as a technological, affluent, service society, and post-industrial society as a more decentralised and ecologically conscious agrarian society. This new global version of the old Jefferson-Hamilton debate—a political continuum best viewed at right angles to the familiar left-right political spectrum—may become the dominant political struggle of our time. A useful synthesis of the two visions is possible, though, if our intellectual segregation, exemplified by the two visions, can be overcome.     

Toward governance for future generations: How do we change course?

In 1987, the UN World Commission on Environment and Development—perhaps better known as the Brundtland Commission—concluded that our present societal course is irresponsible toward future generations. Ten years later, we have hardly come closer to a solution of our planet's long-range problems. But how do we change the course? Are there viable pathways that can take us from the present stalemate to a society that cares for future generations? The bottleneck is not a lack of good proposals for approaching sustainability. It is rather the lack of strength to implement them. Discussions about strategies and motors of social change have very often been absent on the `green' agenda, but exceptions do exist. This article will present and analyse main strategic profiles within an expanding flora of literature about sustainability.     

Beyond economic and value wars: Mythic images of future cities

Images of the future are essential to a society's survival. According to Polak [1], images of the future reflect and foreshadow society's future; as images go, so goes society. As a visual medium, cities in particular depend on robust images of the future. I submit that our ability to develop useful images of future cities depends on our visual literacy in understanding architectural images. This study explores alternative futures illustrated with future fantasies as an experiment in connecting images, archetypal myths, and alternative futures. Using two variables (strength of the economy and shifts in social values), four scenarios are proposed: Frontier Freedoms, Urban Fortress, Eco-Survival, and Utopian Hopes. Scenarios of future cities depicted by architectural imagery and linked to worldviews and archetypal myths broaden public discourse beyond economics and technology to address qualitative contextual factors such as identity, community, sacredness, and nature.     

构建可持续发展的金融基建——专访香港金融管理局助理总裁李建英

一直以来,香港特别行政区以其国际金融中心的地位而备受全球瞩目。近年来,随着香港与内地经贸投资往来的日益密切,香港金融基础设施建设(金融基建)进程快速推进,两岸金融行业产能呈现快速增长态势。金融基建工作已经成为支持香港金融业务发展的"基础助推器"。近日,记者就香港金融基建的发展情况及未来愿景等问题独家专访了香港金融管理局助理总裁李建英。     

The death of the urban vision?

Debate on the future city has changed greatly in the last 20 years. From visions of a distant, orderly and mobile Utopia, peopled with enlightened ‘modern man’, concerns have become more sporadic and less coherent, determined by economic recession and the need to preserve existing urban social fabric rather than with the need to plan holistically for the city of the future. However, there should be no return to the earlier modernist visions, which lacked sufficient social understanding (as illustrated by failed experiments with highrise flats in the UK). Planning for the city of the future must be based on realistic societal needs.     

Municipal visions: Reflexive futures between paradigm and practice

How does the reflexive knowledge we develop about institutions and environments influence the expectations we might have about the future? The paper addresses this question in the context of Foresight in local governance. It describes a project aiming at creating visions for a Norwegian municipality by inviting schoolchildren to contribute with their ideas of the future. The focus is on how the interactions between project owners and participants produced certain forms of resistance and led to visions best described as idealistic conformism. Introducing the idea of ‘reflexive futures’, I suggest that that a broader understanding of reflexivity as containing both enabling and constraining features can help to unlock certain paradoxes of current Foresight and provide a renewed inquiry into the practise of visioning for strategy and long-term planning.     

Prospective youth visions through imaginative education

This paper reports research which investigated the views and visions of the future of Steiner educated senior secondary students using quantitative and qualitative methods. The students demonstrated a strong sense of activism and self-confidence and felt empowered to create their own preferred futures. This capability is referred to as `prospectivity' of futures visions. In exploring the human qualities they thought they should develop to contribute to their ideal world in 2020, the students identified such factors as more activism, more awareness, attitude and values changes, future care and more spirituality. A number of features of Steiner education are identified which might contribute to feelings of empowerment in spite of realistic fears and concerns about the future. In conclusion, there is an exploration of theoretical and practical links between the findings and recent speculations of educational futurists in regard to educating young people for the 21st century.     

Integrating scenario planning and design thinking: Learnings from the 2014 Oxford Futures Forum

This issue of Futures has covered a lot of ground and much of it breaks new ground. It is not too bold to write that these articles have added new thinking to the scenario and design literatures. Even bolder, we believe that human existence and long-term sustainability are predicated in part on the ideas in this issue of Futures. In his recent book The Meaning of Human Existence, Pulitzer Prize winning Biologist E.O. Wilson wrote: premier among the consequences [of human existence] is the capacity to imagine possible futures, and to plan and choose among them. How wisely we use this uniquely human ability depends on the accuracy of our self-understanding. The question of greatest relevant interest is how and why we are the way we are, and from that, the meaning of our many competing visions of the future. Wilson, 2014, p. 14.     

The end of neoliberal history—the future of economics

The future of economics needs discussion both negatively, as the denial of neoliberal perspective, and positively as a science that is able to handle the historic welfare-freedom-culture paradox. The authors state that this alternative is political economy, which they define as a science searching for materialisation of social visions in the economic sphere. This tradition dates back to ancient cultures and does not coincide with the present usage of political economy. The article discusses the political economy of the information age and beyond. The core idea is that the human alternative of ongoing technological changes executes long run visions of mankind: co-existence of freedom and welfare under cultural leadership in a global scale.