养老模式对健康的影响

中国人口老龄化趋势日益明显,这给养老、医疗、社会服务带来了巨大的压力。本文从居住模式和主要经济来源两个方面来界定中国老年人的养老模式,利用经济学方法,根据2002年、2005年中国老年人口健康状况调查数据(Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey,CLHLS),从实证角度,讨论了中国不同养老模式如何影响老年人的健康状况,并且分析了这一关系是否存在性别差异、城乡差异和年龄段差异。研究发现,养老模式是关系到中国老年人健康的一个关键因素,经济与居住均独立的老年夫妻有最明显的健康优势和主观幸福度优势,而依靠子女供养或政府补助的个人独居养老模式是最差的。这些经验发现可以为政府改善老龄人群的健康提供可靠的政策依据。     

Changing the way the elderly live: Evidence from the home health care market in the United States

I examine how decreases in government coverage of home health care visits to the elderly in the United States have affected their living arrangements. Specifically, I exploit geographic variation in the Medicare Home Health Care reimbursement rate that arose as a result of legislation passed in 1997 and I identify its impact on the living arrangements of older Medicare beneficiaries. I find that less generous reimbursement policies lead to a greater fraction of elderly giving up independent living. Baseline-model estimates suggest that a decline in reimbursement of one visit per user leads to a 0.98% increase in the fraction of elderly Medicare beneficiaries living in shared living arrangements, that is, living with somebody else, rather than alone or with only the spouse. This estimate implies that a decline in reimbursement of 5.1 visits per Medicare beneficiary increases the fraction of elderly that live in shared living arrangements by 1.12 percentage points. Such an increase is consistent with the time-series increase in the fraction of elderly that live in shared living arrangements between 1997 and 2000.     

Living arrangements of the elderly in China: evidence from the CHARLS national baseline

Declining fertility in China has raised concerns about elderly support, especially when public support is inadequate. Using rich information from the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) baseline survey, we describe the patterns of current living arrangements of the Chinese elderly and investigate their determinants and correlation with intergenerational transfers. We find that roughly 41% of Chinese aged 60 and over live with an adult child; living with a male adult child being strongly preferred. However another 34% have an adult child living in the same immediate neighborhood and 14% in the same county; only 5% have an adult child with none of them living in the same county. At the same time, a large fraction of the elderly, 45% in our sample, live alone or with only a spouse. In general, women, those from western provinces, and those from rural areas are more likely to live with or close to their adult children than their corresponding counterparts, but different types of intergenerational transfers play a supplementary role in the unequal distribution of living arrangements. Among non-co-resident children, those living close by visit their parents more frequently and have more communications by other means. In contrast, children who live farther away are more likely to send financial and in-kind transfers and send larger amounts.     

中国城镇老年人的居住意愿对空巢居住的影响

实证研究发现,超过半数的中国城镇老年人在居住意愿上选择空巢居住,而近十年来,中国城镇老年人空巢的比例也呈现明显的增长趋势,且越来越倾向于与子女分开居住,中低龄老年人愿意空巢居住的比例更高。就2000年至2010年中国城镇老年人的居住意愿对实际居住方式的影响进行了研究。老年人的居住意愿对其居住方式有重要影响,不愿意与子女同住、经济状况好、有配偶、没有儿子、生活能完全自理的老年人更倾向于空巢居住。与十年前相比,生活自理能力对居住方式的影响增强。未来不愿意与子女同住的老人将越来越多,老年空巢家庭的比例将会继续增加。为了更好地适应老年人空巢居住的变化趋势,应尽快完善社会养老服务体系。     

ON THE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS OF ELDERLY WIDOWS*

Between 1970 and 1990, the share of elderly widows living alone grew by 23.2% in the United States, whereas those living with their children decreased by a similar amount. We pose a variety of models for determining the living arrangements in which living together increases consumption because of economies of scale and may also provide utility directly. We estimate these models using the 1970 data and obtain an excellent fit. The estimated models predict that changes in the incomes of both the widow and her offspring generate three‐quarters of the increase in the number of widows living alone.     

Challenges of population aging in China

Utilizing the most recent census and survey data as well as the new ProFamy method, this paper presents and analyzes the trends of challenges of population aging and elderly living arrangements in China in the first half of twenty-first century. It discusses the serious challenges and related policy recommendations concerning the old-age insurance program in rural China.     

Income Tax Reforms and Redistribution by Age Group: Evidence From Japan

In the 1980s, tax policy changes mitigated the redistributive effect of income tax. The present study attempts to explore how different the redistributive effect of the income tax reforms in Japan is among age groups, using Japanese household microdata for the period 1984–2009. The following results are obtained. First, the overall redistributive effect was greatest for the elderly group, followed by the middle‐aged group, and then the young group. Furthermore, this trend increased steadily over time. Second, the difference in total redistributive effects between the young and elderly increased owing to a large reduction in the base effect for the young.     

Tax and transfer programs,retirement behavior,and work hours over the life cycle

In this paper, we use a computable overlapping generations model economy to analyze the quantitative effects of some reforms on tax and transfer programs, aimed at easing the tax burden on the labor supply of older workers. We focus on retirement behavior, work hours over the life cycle, and efficiency gains. We find that the labor supply of older workers is very responsive to changes in tax and transfer programs and show that the gains, in terms of old-age work hours, are non-trivial. However, we also find that longer careers may not substantially increase aggregate hours because workers may reallocate labor supply over the life cycle in response to retiring later. Moreover, since longer careers may also reduce saving rates, we also find that changes in tax and transfer programs aimed at boosting the employment rates of the elderly may reduce output per head.     

The Effect of Superannuation Tax Incentives on Salary Sacrifice Participation

In this study, we examine choices in voluntary superannuation contributions by Australian income earners. In particular, we focus on salary sacrifice contributions, which could attract a tax benefit of up to 30 percentage points. This study aims to evaluate how effective tax incentives are in stimulating salary sacrifice participation. Using a regression discontinuity framework, we measure the response of individuals to different levels of tax concessions on salary sacrifice contributions. Results indicate that current tax incentives have a limited effect, if any, on the decision to make salary sacrifice arrangements. This result is consistent with more recent empirical research from the Northern Hemisphere. It is likely that the lack of response is due to the complexity of the incentive schemes in Australia and competing vehicles for long‐term savings.     

Economic consequences of an aging population

Europe and Japan are experiencing the aging of their populations. Aging implies a restructuring of the economy. Political issues which arise in an aging society include 1) a voting majority for the interests of the elderly, 2) a voting majority of females, 3) the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies, and 4) unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people. Economic issues of an aging society include 1) population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income, 2) the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems, and 3) the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families. Issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1) the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2) older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects. In general, population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force.     

Do income tax breaks for the elderly affect economic growth?

Income tax breaks for elderly taxpayers are sizable, widespread, and potentially affect growth through migration and other behaviors. We provide the first investigation into the growth effects of differential tax policy by age, taking a multi-pronged empirical approach to US state-level data since 1977. Some analyses include panel error-correction models combined with variation in state-level policies over time. Alternative analyses use how changes in federal tax law manifest at the state-level. Results suggest that taxes on lower income taxpayers, of any age, decrease growth the most, while taxing the high income elderly—those targeted recently—has little effect.     

Marginal Tax Rate Uncertainty and Wage Indexation

Frequent changes in American tax laws over the last 30 years have led to uncertainty regarding the marginal tax rate on labour income. Using a multisector framework, this paper considers the implications of the tax rate uncertainty for wage flexibility. The Fiscal Authority sets the marginal wage tax rate, and is assumed to be the leader in a Stackelberg game. Wage setters in this game determine the degree of optimal indexation and are assumed to be followers. Increases in tax rate uncertainty lead to greater nominal wage flexibility, and a decrease in optimal progressivity. Additionally, indexation to nominal shocks is complete even if the product market is monopolistically competitive.     

Information sharing for consumption tax purposes: An empirical analysis

The paper studies the determinants of information sharing between Swedish tax authorities and 14 EU tax authorities for value-added tax (VAT) purposes. It is shown that trade-related variables (such as the partner country’s net trade position and population size), reciprocity, and legal arrangements are significant determinants of Sweden’s trade in tax information. Countries that are net exporters of goods to Sweden appear to be net importers of information from Sweden, reflecting their need for information to combat export-related VAT fraud. Reciprocity plays a more important role in Sweden’s export of information upon official request than in its spontaneous export of information.     

WHO PAYS NO TAX? THE DECLINING FRACTION PAYING INCOME TAXES AND INCREASING TAX PROGRESSIVITY

Using federal individual income tax data, this paper presents the first long‐run estimates of the fraction paying no income tax. Between 1985 and 2015, the fraction of working age adults paying no tax increased from 20% to 36%. A decomposition shows that almost all of this increase resulted from changes in tax policy, especially from more generous tax credits. Increasing tax progressivity over the last three decades also resulted from more generous tax credits. The substantial federal tax changes enacted in 2017 are forecasted to temporarily increase both the fraction paying no tax and individual income tax progressivity. (JEL H22, H24, H31)     

The Political Power of the Retirees in a Two-Dimensional Voting Model

We show that the retirees are able to obtain favorable pension policies whereas they belong to a minority in the population. The argument relies on the multidimensional nature of the political process. We consider a two‐dimensional collective choice problem. The first of these choices is the level of the contribution rate to the Pay‐As‐You‐Go pension system. The second is a noneconomic decision, unrelated to the pension system. Using a political agency model, we show that, as soon as the retirees are sufficiently numerous, the equilibrium tax rate may be higher than the tax rate preferred by the young, who yet constitute a majority over the pension issue.     

Demographic change and income tax revenues – results from a large microsimulation model for Germany

Similarly to many other European countries, Germany has experienced a considerable demographic shift since the 1970s: higher life expectancy and diminishing birth rates, only partly balanced by immigration, have led to an altered population structure with an increasing share of elderly people. In the next decades, population aging in Germany will accelerate and also induce a decline of the total population. These demographic changes can be expected to have a profound impact on the governmental budget. While shifts in public expenditures have been forecasted regularly since 2005, the revenue side has received less attention to date. We study the long-term (2015–2060) shifts in income tax revenues induced by demographic change. Our aim is to quantify possible fiscal effects of demographic change using microsimulation and to identify elements of the income tax code particularly affected. We find the expected demographic changes to have a clear negative impact on income tax revenues. Population aging increases the impact of various deductibility rules on total income tax revenues, in particular the impact of the deductibility of old-age and health insurance provisions. The impact of the deductibility of exceptional expenses such as expenses for caregiving also increases, but remains small overall. Due to expected increases in real incomes, however, demographic change does not imply an absolute drop in income tax revenues in the next decades.     

Informality,innovation, and aggregate productivity growth

This paper investigates how the costs of innovation in the formal sector temper or magnify the impacts of traditional policy levers such as taxation on sectoral choice. I embed a decision whether to operate formally or informally into a richer, general equilibrium model. Formal firms are subject to taxation, but they can improve their productivity through process innovation. Informal firms can potentially avoid taxation, and their productivity is determined by productivity growth in the formal sector. I find that changing tax rates from 50% to 60% decreases formal‐sector participation by 20.9%; however, this percentage falls by 10% when the cost of innovation is lower in the formal sector. The model also illustrates how changes in tax policy affect total factor productivity growth by limiting both the number of formal‐sector firms and the intensity of innovation. These results indicate a potential mechanism to induce firms to operate formally or mitigate harmful impacts of necessary tax changes.     

The effect of death tax on the labour supply of donors: evidence from TRA97

Exploiting estate tax cuts from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97), this paper estimates the effect of death tax on the labour supply of living potential donors. To this end, difference-in-difference with multiple imputation approach is applied to micro-level panel data. This paper finds that the estate tax cuts makes no difference in labour force participation or working hours of potential donors in a statistically meaningful way, although the TRA97 reduces marginal estate tax rates by 37.51% on average. This finding suggests that the death tax causes no meaningful distortion of living potential-donors’ labour supplies at either extensive or intensive margin.     

Income Tax Evasion in a Unionised Labour Market

Labour market outcomes can depend on tax evasion since the returns from working are affected by the amount of taxes paid. In this paper, unionised workers are assumed to select the income which they declare. The rational trade union takes this decision into account. It is shown that the employment effects of a linear income tax are not altered qualitatively by tax evasion if the fine for evasion is a function only of the evaded tax. Moreover, the consequences of changes in the tax enforcement system are determined by the ability to choose evasion activities optimally. The existence of unrestricted tax evasion opportunities lowers wages.     

老年人居住方式及影响因素分析——以贵阳市为例

利用调查数据对贵阳市老年人居住方式及其影响因素进行分析。贵阳市老年人以居住在三代及以上户为主,夫妇户也占较大比重;老年人与子女居住的比重略高于不与子女居住的比重。在控制其他变量的情况下,住房条件、经济收入和与子女的关系状况三个因素对老年人的居住方式具有显著性影响。